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Jesus Test and Other News

Posted on November 30, 2014 by Clive D. Field

The Jesus test

Jesus Christ is not often dragged into the contemporary British political arena, but, when He is, people tend to ask what He would do or think about a current situation (or, in a few cases, even claim to know what His views are). In what the company describes as a ‘new thought experiment’, YouGov probed the British public on how they imagined Jesus would react to four political issues of the present day: immigration, same-sex marriage, (re)nationalization of the railways, and the reintroduction of the death penalty for murder. Interviews were conducted online on 24-25 November 2014 with 1,890 adults aged 18 and over.

Needless to say, many respondents found the task impossible, with between 34% and 56% stating that they did not know what position Jesus would have taken on each issue (rising to 39% to 58% for those professing no religion). On railway nationalization, the views imputed to Jesus were much the same as those expressed by Britons overall in another survey, perhaps indicating that interviewees might have been simply playing back their own attitudes, not recognizing this as a moral/religious issue at all. On same-sex marriage, a plurality (35%) thought Jesus would have supported it, albeit this was a lower level of endorsement (by 19 points) than was found among the electorate at large last year. This difference presumably reflects popular knowledge of opposition to the legalization of same-sex marriage by the major Christian Churches and the assumption that this must be rooted in Christ’s teaching.

On the remaining two questions, Jesus and the public were apparently at loggerheads. Thus, whereas 32% more believed that Jesus would oppose than approve the reintroduction of the death penalty (49% versus 17%), in August 2014 YouGov discovered a 6% margin (45% versus 39%) for the contrary position among electors. The gap was even wider when it came to immigration, with 76% of Britons quizzed by YouGov this month wanting to see tighter controls, including (for some) the cessation of all immigration. Jesus, on the other hand, was felt to favour fewer or no restrictions on immigration (39%) compared with 15% who judged Him as supporting tighter controls.

In a blog accompanying the survey, dated 26 November, YouGov rationalized it thus: ‘Comparing the views that people hold themselves with what they imagine Jesus would think suggests interesting insights as to how virtuous, or at least Christian, they consider their own political views to be.’ The blog has sparked a lively debate, with some comments being fairly dismissive of the whole venture, such as ‘one of the most idiotic surveys of YouGov … ever!’ or ‘most ridiculous set of questions I’ve ever been asked on YouGov’. The blog, incorporating a link to the full data tables including breaks by religious affiliation as well as standard demographics, is at:

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2014/11/26/the-jesus-test/

There is also an appraisal and analysis of the poll in a blog on the May2015 website, which concludes: ‘What would Jesus do? If we offer an opinion, it’s likely to be shaped by our own’. This can be found at:

http://may2015.com/ideas/we-tend-to-think-jesus-would-do-what-we-would-do/

Some BRIN readers will doubtless be sceptical about the worth of such an investigation, and its value is certainly diminished by the high proportion of ‘don’t knows’. On balance, one reading of the data might be that they rather indicate people form their political opinions without much reference to religious factors.

Pope Francis on the European Union

Talking of religion and politics, Pope Francis seems to have set the cat among the pigeons by a speech to the European Parliament on 25 November 2014 in which he made several forthright remarks about the current state of the European Union (EU), which he likened to a grandmother who was no longer fertile and vibrant. In a poll for The Times Redbox on 26-27 November 2014, YouGov asked 1,970 Britons whether they thought the Pope had spoken the truth about the EU and whether he had been right to express his opinion at all. Overall, 62% felt that what he had said about the EU was true (rising to 73% of Conservatives, 71% of UKIP voters, and 74% of over-60s), while 54% defended his right to speak out (against 22% who judged him in the wrong, with 24% undecided). Data tables are at:

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/yebku7qamp/RedBoxResults_141127_Pope_Francis_Website.pdf

Islamic State

The autumn has seen a marked diminution of interest on the part of pollsters and their clients in surveying public attitudes to the so-called Islamic State (IS) in Iraq and Syria. But on 25 November 2014 ICM Research released the topline findings from a new multinational poll which had been commissioned by the Russian news agency Rossiya Segodnya. Based on telephone interviews between 7 and 11 November, including 1,002 in Britain, it revealed an appreciably greater appetite for their country’s participation in military intervention against IS among Britons than the French or, more especially, Germans. The Anglo-German difference is especially striking, given that the identical proportion (two-thirds) in each nation agreed that European involvement in military action against IS would increase the threat posed by radical Islamism in Europe, whereas only 45% of the French shared this view. Results are summarized below, while data tables are at:

http://www.icmunlimited.com/data/media/pdf/RS-Airstrikes-Comb%20-%20Nov%2014.pdf

% supporting country’s involvement in	Britain	France	Germany
Airstrikes against IS	65	49	35
Ground operations against IS	53	41	20
Both	49	37	16
Neither	18	28	55

Also pertinent to the above is another recent poll, not previously reported on BRIN, by ComRes for ITV News on 24-26 October 2014, 2,004 Britons being interviewed online. This showed that a plurality (49%) agreed that the rise of IS was probably a direct result of British and American military involvement in the Middle East, with 26% dissenting and the identical proportion undecided. At the same time, 42% believed that Afghanistan would face a similar fate to Iraq and Syria under IS unless international forces remained in the country. Data tables are at:

http://comres.co.uk/polls/ITV_News_Index_27th_October_2014.pdf

Youth social action

Two-fifths of UK young persons aged 10-20 have participated in some meaningful form of social action (defined as ‘practical action in the service of others to create positive change’) during the past 12 months, but the proportion is slightly higher among those who profess a religion (43%) than those who do not (37%). The headline appears in Youth Social Action in the UK, 2014, which was published on 24 November 2014, and based on research undertaken by Ipsos MORI for the Cabinet Office and Step up to Serve. Face-to-face interviews were conducted with 2,038 young persons between 11 and 22 September 2014. The report is available at:

https://www.ipsos-mori.com/Assets/Docs/Publications/sri-ecf-youth-social-action-in-the-uk-2014.pdf

Liking the Church of England

YouGov Profiles, a new interactive segmentation and media planning tool, enables profiles to be built of people who ‘like’ a particular brand, person, or thing, showing what differentiates them from their natural ‘comparison set’ in terms of demographics, lifestyle, personality, brands, favourite entertainments, online activity, and media consumption. Statistical relationships between those who ‘like’ the brand, person, or thing in question and the ‘comparison set’ are expressed as ‘Z scores’, under 1 being weak, from 1 to 2 medium, and 2 and above strong. The source database comprises information gathered from YouGov’s 200,000-strong UK survey panel. The profiler can be searched at:

https://yougov.co.uk/profiler#/

You may well struggle to extract data about specific religious groups, either because the sub-sample is rather small (for instance, there are only 104 individuals who ‘like’ the Catholic Church) or because there is nothing directly relevant; thus, keying in ‘atheists’ generates data for panel members who ‘like’ The Ruts (music artist), The Mist (film), and The Rats (novel). Moreover, any profiles recovered should not be interpreted as an approximation of a national cross-section of the group concerned. As YouGov explains, what is revealed is ‘the quintessential, rather than the average, member of that group’. BRIN strongly recommends that you read the FAQs before starting to use the tool; these are at:

https://yougov.co.uk/find-solutions/profiles/

By way of illustration, we can take the Church of England, whose YouGov profile features in the latest edition of the Church Times (28 November 2014, p. 4), based on the 1,187 individuals who said they ‘like’ that Church. Although certain of their attributes and behaviours are predictable, and consistent with what is known from other research, in some respects they are, as the Church Times puts it, ‘off-beam’, including an unexplained preponderance in the Midlands and North-West. Still, if you want to amuse yourself by finding out what some ‘Anglicans’ eat, where they shop, what they watch on television, which newspapers they read, and so forth – all in relation to their ‘comparison set’ – then go to:

https://yougov.co.uk/profiler#/Church_of_England/demographics

Cathedral statistics

Cathedral Statistics, 2013 was published by the Church of England’s Research and Statistics Department on 24 November 2014, comprising 13 tables, 12 figures, explanatory notes, and commentary. It includes comparative data back to 2003, albeit methodological changes significantly impact comparisons for Holy Week and Advent. The finding headlined by the Church was the increase in midweek attendances at cathedrals since 2003 (doubling in the case of adults), although Sunday congregations have remained more stable during the past decade. Easter attendances and communicants were slightly down on 2012 levels, those for Christmas somewhat improved, but turnout at both these festivals is notoriously variable, influenced by their timing (whether Easter is early or late, the day of the week on which Christmas falls) and the state of the weather. Visitor numbers rose to 10,248,000 (but were still less than in 2003), to which Westminster Abbey added another 2,000,000. The report, which is the subject of a sober editorial in the current issue of the Church Times (‘these figures offer challenges as well as reassurance to cathedrals’, 28 November 2014, p. 14) can be read at:

https://gallery.mailchimp.com/50eac70851c7245ce1ce00c45/files/Cathedral_Statistics.pdf

FutureFirst

The latest issue (No. 36, December 2014) of FutureFirst, the bimonthly bulletin of Brierley Consultancy, has just been published. As usual, packed into its six A4 pages are sundry news stories about recent socio-religious research, this time including a couple of pieces with BRIN connections. Research by David Voas into the factors promoting or inhibiting growth in the Church of England is summarized in ‘Anglican Growth’, on pp. 1 and 4, while Clive Field writes on p. 6 about ‘Attitudes to Church and Clergy in Britain’ (based on his recent article in Contemporary British History). Peter Brierley also has an analysis on p. 3 of the YouGov poll of Anglican clergy conducted for Linda Woodhead this summer; he especially highlights gender variations within theological positions. New subscriptions to FutureFirst cost just £20 per calendar year; contact peter@brierleyres.com for more information.

Advent calendars

Today (30 November 2014) is the first Sunday in Advent, but research by the Church of England Newspaper (28 November 2014, p. 1) has revealed that only 31 (3%) of the 976 Advent calendars on sale in stores on London’s Oxford Street had a religious theme. The dominant images were of One Direction, Hello Kitty, Frozen, and Santa Claus.

Religion in the First World War

The secondary literature on religion and the First World War in Britain has disproportionately focused on ‘trench religion’, the faith of the fighting men and the experiences of their chaplains. Using statistical evidence, wherever possible, Clive Field takes a look at the domestic front in a new article entitled ‘Keeping the Spiritual Home Fires Burning: Religious Belonging in Britain during the First World War’, War & Society, Vol. 33, No. 4, October 2014, pp. 244-68. He shows that church attendance rose briefly at the start of the war but fell away thereafter in the Protestant tradition, accelerating a pre-existing trend, which was not reversed after 1918. The disruption caused by the war to the everyday life of organized religion, Field suggests, probably accounted for the decrease, rather more than loss of faith. Church membership also declined during the war in the Anglican and mainstream Free Churches, albeit not for other denominations and faiths, but it temporarily revived after the war. This was not the case for non-member adherents and Sunday scholars whose reduction was more continuous. Access options for the article are outlined at:

http://www.maneyonline.com/doi/full/10.1179/0729247314Z.00000000041

Posted in church attendance, Historical studies, News from religious organisations, Religion and Politics, Religion and Social Capital, Religion in public debate, Survey news, visualisation | Tagged Advent calendars, Cabinet Office, Cathedrals, church attendance, church membership, Church of England, Church of England Newspaper, Church Times, Clive Field, ComRes, David Voas, death penalty, European Union, First World War, France, FutureFirst, Germany, ICM Research, Immigration, Ipsos-MORI, Islamic State, ITV News, Jesus Christ, military action, Peter Brierley, politics, Pope Francis, railway nationalization, Rossiya Segodnya, same-sex marriage, social action, Step up to Serve, The Times, War and Society, YouGov, YouGov Profiles, youth | Leave a comment

More Islamic State Polling and Other News

Posted on August 24, 2014 by Clive D. Field

Islamic State

Further polls (conducted online, unless otherwise stated) have been carried out during the past week to probe public opinion on the escalating crisis brought about by the progress of the Islamic State (IS, formerly the Islamic State of the Iraq and Levant and the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria) in Iraq and Syria and by the brutalities which it is perpetrating. Here, for space reasons, we report topline findings only, although breaks by standard demographics are mostly available through the links shown. Polls are arranged in chronological order of fieldwork, reflecting the dynamism of the situation.

11-13 July 2014 [not published until 18 August 2014]

Just 7% of Britons held a favourable view of IS, compared with 16% in France and 2% in Germany, according to an ICM Research poll for the Russian news agency Rossiya Segodnya. British fieldwork was carried out by telephone with a sample of 1,000 adults. Opposition to IS was voiced by 64% of Britons, rising to 70% among over-65s, with 29% undecided. Data tables are at:

http://www.icmresearch.com/data/media/pdf/New%20EU%20Members-Combined-July%202014-V3.pdf

and a commentary at:

http://rt.com/news/181076-isis-islam-militans-france/

12-15 August 2014

In an Opinium Research poll for The Observer among 1,963 adults, 64% claimed to have been following very closely or quite closely the conflict between IS and the Iraqi government. There was strong support (85%) for air drops of humanitarian aid to Yazidi refugees in the mountains of northern Iraq and greater endorsement than in some other surveys for non-humanitarian intervention by the UK and other countries. Thus, 51% backed air strikes on IS targets and 45% the provision of weapons and military supplies to the Iraqi army and Kurdish militias in their fight against IS. However, 56% were opposed to sending in UK or other ground troops, with 28% in favour. Data tables are at:

http://news.opinium.co.uk/sites/news.opinium.co.uk/files/vi_12_08_2014_tables.pdf

15-17 August 2014

A ComRes poll of 2,042 adults for ITV News asked how the British government should respond to IS, taking into account the level of military action necessary to achieve a particular outcome. In reply, 20% suggested that we should attempt to defeat IS in its entirety, 29% that we should seek to prevent IS making further gains, and 30% that Britain should not get involved and leave the situation to run its course (the remaining 21% were undecided). Just over one-third believed the British government should arm Kurdish forces who were fighting IS. Only 24% agreed that Iraqi Christians at risk of persecution should be allowed to come and stay in the UK, with 50% opposed and 26% uncertain. Still fewer, 16%, approved of Iraqi Muslims being admitted into the UK, with 58% disapproving and 26% undecided. Full data tables are at:

http://www.comres.co.uk/polls/ITV_News_Index_18th_August_2014.pdf

17-18 August 2014

In a YouGov survey for The Times among 1,710 Britons, support for RAF involvement in making humanitarian air drops to assist refugee religious minorities in Iraq and for direct air strikes by the RAF against IS targets was unchanged from previous polls, at three-quarters and two-fifths respectively. However, approval of Britain supplying arms to Iraqi and Kurdish forces fighting IS was, at 35%, seven points up from 11-12 August. The country was divided about whether Iraqi Christians who had been rendered homeless by the conflict should be offered asylum in Britain, 39% being in favour and the same proportion against. Approval dropped to 29% when it came to possible asylum being given to non-Christian Iraqis, with 46% of adults opposed. Full data tables are at:

http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/a1eg1742l1/Times_Results_140818_Iraq_questions_1_to_6_W.pdf

18-19 August 2014

In its next poll, YouGov asked 2,036 Britons to rank three current crises from three different perspectives. These were the conflict between Palestinians and Israelis in Gaza; between IS and the Iraqi government; and between pro-Russia separatists and the Ukrainian government. The crisis around IS was assessed as the most serious of the three, 58% viewing it as the greatest threat to Britain, 52% as the greatest threat to world peace, and 41% as the crisis they most cared about personally. The Gaza situation was seen as the smallest of the three threats to Britain (10%) and world peace (18%), although 33% rated it as the issue they were most concerned about themselves. Data tables are at:

http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/e0demldomi/InternalResults_140819_Israel_Gaza_Palestine_W.pdf

20-21 August 2014

Iraq has dominated the news agenda during the past week, according to a Populus poll of 2,018 Britons. The top two news stories were recalled as Iraq and IS (reported by 21% of interviewees) and the murder of American photo-journalist James Foley by an IS (possibly British) jihadist (19%). The Israeli-Palestinian war was relegated to third place (8%), with unspecified conflicts in the Middle East in tenth position on 2%.

20-21 August 2014

YouGov, on the basis of interviews with 2,028 Britons on behalf of The Times Red Box, reported that 83% had heard of the existence of a video apparently showing the beheading of James Foley by an IS jihadist, with a further 3% unsure whether they had or not. Among this sub-sample of 1,777, 47% had seen a still from the video in the media, 30% had seen or heard an extract from the video, and 3% had watched the whole video. Although 56% supported the media’s right to report these kinds of videos, 43% did not think that any part of them should be shown by social media or media organizations, with a further 32% wanting to see them shown but with the actual killing edited out. Data tables are at:

http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/j8pj9g07z2/InternalResults_140821_american_journalist_video.pdf

21-22 August 2014

In its poll of 1,866 adults for The Sunday Times, support for RAF air drops of humanitarian aid for people fleeing IS remained high, on 77%, with a plurality of 45% approving of RAF strikes against IS. There was less enthusiasm for Britain supplying arms to Iraqi and Kurdish forces fighting IS (37%) and for British troops being sent to train such forces (30%). The public took a tough line against British subjects fighting with IS; in such circumstances 76% wished to see British citizenship revoked for individuals who held dual nationality or had been naturalized (which the government is empowered to do), while 68% wanted the law changed to enable those with only British nationality to be stripped of their citizenship. Just 35% desired Britain to give asylum to displaced Iraqi Christians, which was four points down on the figure for 17-18 August, although it was higher than the 23% who felt that the group of Afghan Sikh illegal immigrants found suffocating in a container at Tilbury docks recently should be given asylum (53% wanted them sent home). Data tables are at:

http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/8wj4hu4alm/YG-Archive-Pol-Sunday-Times-results-140822-2.pdf

Evangelical neighbourliness

Are We Good Neighbours? is the latest in a series of reports deriving from the Evangelical Alliance’s research panel. Like all the others since 2011, it is based on an opportunity sample of self-selecting respondents, in this case 1,497 self-defining evangelicals who completed an online questionnaire in February 2014. Therefore, the study is potentially unrepresentative of evangelical churchgoers and its results should be regarded as illustrative only. The report can be found at:

http://www.eauk.org/church/resources/snapshot/loader.cfm?csModule=security/getfile&PageID=52910

The scope of what is considered to be neighbourly in the survey is fairly wide, but there are some questions about neighbours in the next-door sense (as well as about more general ‘Good Samaritan’ behaviours of panellists and their churches). The answers revealed that, within the past week, 68% had chatted with someone in their street; 45% had prayed for a neighbour without letting them know (with 12% praying for a neighbour who was aware of the fact); 23% had welcomed a neighbour into their own home; and 21% had been inside a neighbour’s home. Neighbours were most commonly turned to when practical help was required: to take in a parcel (86%); to look after the home, plants, or pets while the owner was away (45%); and to hold a spare key to the dwelling in the event of getting locked out (42%). One-quarter reported that they were regularly supporting a neighbour who was lonely, ill or otherwise in need. However, two-thirds thought that people in the UK are not such good neighbours as they used to be.

More unexpectedly, perhaps, the questionnaire extended to politics, 91% of evangelicals claiming to almost always or always vote in elections for local councillors, which is apparently well above the national average (overall turnout in the 2014 local elections was only 35%). More than half (56%) claimed to know the names of their local councillors, and 38% had contacted them or a council department within the past year. On national political issues, 74% said they would feel unhappy if Scotland became independent of the rest of the UK, 73% feeling the same way about Wales and 64% about Northern Ireland. Just a plurality (46%) expressed unhappiness at the prospect of Britain departing the European Union, with 34% in favour of leaving and 20% neutral. The Evangelical Alliance’s current survey (closing date 15 September 2014) is actually focused on the broader political views and engagement of evangelicals, with the intention of generating data to inform the May 2015 general election debates.

GCSE results

The Joint Council for Qualifications (JCQ) published the Summer 2014 GCSE results for England, Wales, and Northern Ireland on 21 August 2014. The outcome for Religious Studies (RS) and all subjects is summarized in the table below:

	Full course	Short course
Religious Studies
All entrants 2014	282,099	123,393
All entrants 2013	263,988	174,364
% change	+6.9	-29.2
% female entrants	53.7	48.5
% A*-C grades	71.5	56.8
All subjects
All entrants 2014	5,217,573	189,995
All entrants 2013	5,445,324	274,017
% change	-4.2	-30.7
% female entrants	51.1	49.2
% A*-C grades	68.8	56.4

Although combined entries for the full and short course GCSE in RS were down by 7.5% on the previous year, this was entirely a function of the progressive demise of short courses generally, following a range of curriculum and examination reforms under the present government. Full course entries in RS were actually up by 6.9% even though entries for all full course GCSEs were down by 4.2%, with – on one reading of the data – more than one-third of those who in a previous year might have taken the short course in RS electing to take the full course instead. Those sitting the full course in RS were also 2.7% more likely to achieve a ‘good’ grade (defined as A*-C) than in all subjects. Much more detail is available at:

http://www.jcq.org.uk/examination-results/gcses

Posted in News from religious organisations, Religion and Politics, Religion and Social Capital, Survey news | Tagged Afghan Sikhs, asylum, British citizenship, ComRes, Evangelical Alliance, Gaza, GCSEs, humanitarian aid, ICM Research, Iraq, Iraqi Christians, Iraqi Muslims, Islamic State, Israelis, ITV News, James Foley, Joint Council for Qualifications, Kurds, neighbours, Opinium Research, Palestinians, Populus, public examinations, religious studies, Rossiya Segodnya, Royal Air Force, Sunday Times, The Observer, The Times, Ukraine, YouGov | Leave a comment

Baroness Warsi’s Resignation and Other News

Posted on August 10, 2014 by Clive D. Field

Baroness Warsi’s resignation

Last Tuesday (5 August 2014), Baroness Sayeeda Warsi resigned from Britain’s coalition government in protest at its response to the crisis in Gaza arising from the latest round of conflict between Israel and Hamas. She had been the first female Muslim member of a UK Cabinet and, in addition to being Senior Minister of State at the Foreign and Commonwealth Office, held the portfolio of Minister for Faith and Communities at the Department for Communities and Local Government.

In what appears to be the first test of public reaction on the subject, a plurality (44%) of 1,943 adult Britons questioned online by YouGov for The Sunday Times on 7-8 August 2014 felt that she had been right to resign, with a big difference between Conservatives (27%) on the one hand and Labour voters (58%) and Liberal Democrats (50%) on the other. One-quarter considered she had been wrong to resign (including 46% of Conservatives), with 31% undecided.

Somewhat fewer than endorsed Warsi’s resignation, 33%, wanted to see the British government doing more to condemn Israeli actions in Gaza, with Labourites (48%), Liberal Democrats (42%), and Scots (40%) especially of this view. Just 7% wished to see the government doing more to support Israel. In particular, Israel’s bombing of Gaza is widely and increasingly regarded as unjustified, as the following table shows:

Gaza bombing (%)	Justified	Unjustified	Don’t know
20-21 July 2014	15	51	34
24-25 July 2014	18	52	31
28-29 July 2014	17	52	31
31 July-1 August 2014	17	54	29
3-4 August 2014	15	55	30
7-8 August 2014	17	60	24

Public sympathy with the Palestinians has also increased since the current flare-up in Gaza began early last month, now running at twice the level expressed for the Israelis. However, a steady two-fifths of the British public still feels sympathy for neither side. Trend data are as follows:

Sympathize with (%)	Israelis	Palestinians	Neither	Don’t know
13-14 July 2014	14	20	40	26
20-21 July 2014	14	23	40	23
24-25 July 2014	14	27	41	19
28-29 July 2014	14	27	41	18
31 July-1 August 2014	14	28	40	17
3-4 August 2014	12	30	39	20
7-8 August 2014	16	30	41	13

Full tables for the most recent YouGov poll are at:

http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/s41ippsqgi/YG-Archive-Pol-Sunday-Times-results-140808.pdf

Sunday trading

Resistance to the Sunday opening of shops in England and Wales still persists twenty years after the Sunday Trading Act 1994 brought in greater liberalization of shop hours. This is revealed in a poll by ICM Research for Retail Week in which 1,838 English and Welsh adults were interviewed online on 25-27 July 2014. Asked directly, 26% of respondents thought that shops should not be open at all on Sundays, with 53% disagreeing. However, fewer (17%) expressed the view that shops should be closed on Sundays when the question was put in a more indirect way, regarding future priorities for Sunday trading. And fewer still (13%) claimed never to shop on a Sunday, against 41% who were frequent Sunday shoppers (every week or most weeks) and 42% more occasional ones. Among those who ever shopped on a Sunday, supermarkets (71%), garden centres (33%), and home or DIY stores (31%) were the most frequently visited venues. Support for a change in the law to enable large shops to open on Sundays for more than the present six hours was voiced by 48% (rising to 55% among under-45s), 31% being opposed, with 17% rejecting the call for longer opening hours on religious grounds. An account of the survey was published in Retail Week on 1 August 2014, which is available online for subscribers only. Topline results can be accessed without restriction in the form of a slide pack at:

http://www.icmresearch.com/data/media/pdf/Sunday%20Trading%20Poll%20July_August%202014_29.07.14.pdf

Religion and the European Union

Few in Europe or the UK view religion as a major component of the European Union (EU), according to the initial results of Standard Eurobarometer wave 81.4, conducted by TNS Opinion and Social among adults aged 15 and over in all 28 member states, including face-to-face interviews with 1,373 in the UK between 31 May and 14 June 2014. Asked which of twelve issues most created a feeling of community among EU citizens, only 9% in the UK and in the EU overall selected religion, culture scoring most highly (29% and 27% respectively), with sport in second place in the UK (25%). Religion was positioned bottom of the table in the EU and equal second bottom in the UK, somewhat ahead of solidarity with poorer regions (5%). Similarly, when it came to which of twelve values best represented the EU, religion came bottom of the list in the EU and second bottom in the UK, with 3% each (only self-fulfilment being regarded as less significant in the UK). Peace was considered by far the most important value in the EU (37%) but was pipped to the top spot by human rights in the UK (41%). A maximum of three answers was permitted to each question. Topline data only are available at present at:

http://ec.europa.eu/public_opinion/archives/eb/eb81/eb81_anx_en.pdf

Scottish Gods

Steve Bruce’s latest book, Scottish Gods: Religion in Modern Scotland, 1900-2012 (Edinburgh: Edinburgh University Press, 2014, xi + 244p., £70, ISBN 978 0 7486 8289 8), is an elegantly-written and stimulating social history of, and sociological commentary on, religion in twentieth- and early twenty-first century Scotland, charting both progressive secularization and religious diversification. It does not aspire to provide a fully comprehensive account of the Scottish religious scene, being essentially a series of case studies along ‘confessional’ or thematic lines. These are successively devoted to: the islands of Lewis, Orkney, and Shetland; the Roman Catholic Church; Protestant sectarianism; the Church of Scotland; the Free Church and the Free Presbyterian Church; the New Churches; the Buddhists of Samye Ling; the Findhorn Community; Muslims; and sex and Scottish politics.

Although statistics are quoted throughout, this is not a heavily quantitative work (and doubtless all the more readable and less dull for that). The single most cited quantitative source is the Scottish Social Attitudes Survey for 2001, which included a module on religion and belief, which (sadly) has not been replicated since. The volume also draws quite heavily on the results of the religion question in the 2001 census of population; the (relative to England and Wales) belated and still incomplete publication of Scottish religion data from the 2011 census meant that Bruce could not accommodate them in the main text, but he does discuss them in a two-page addendum. There is also a statistical appendix containing eight tables, as well as seven further tables distributed across individual chapters, the original plan for a much longer appendix of statistics being dropped in view of the existence of BRIN (whose achievement is fulsomely acknowledged). The preface holds out the promise of companion volumes on English Gods and Welsh Gods.

Future of Jewish community research

The future of the Community Research Unit of the Board of Deputies of British Jews is under review, according to the latest issue of the Jewish Chronicle (8 August 2014, p. 14). This follows the departure for a new job of its senior researcher, Daniel Vulkan, after almost nine years in the role. The Board has apparently held talks with the Institute of Jewish Policy Research on continuation of the Unit’s work. The Unit has traditionally collected and analysed key data relating to British Jewry, including preparation of an annual survey of Jewish births, marriages, divorces, and burials, as well as publishing regular reports on synagogue membership and Jewish day schools, and conducting research on behalf of other Jewish communal organizations.

Posted in Historical studies, News from religious organisations, People news, Religion and Politics, Survey news | Tagged Board of Deputies of British Jews, Daniel Vulkan, Eurobarometer, European Union, feeling of community, Gaza, ICM Research, Israelis, Jews, Palestinians, Retail Week, Sayeeda Warsi, Scotland, Steve Bruce, Sunday Times, Sunday trading, TNS, values, YouGov | Leave a comment

Religious Self-Identification and Other News

Posted on August 4, 2014 by Clive D. Field

Religious self-identification

The current issue of Religion (Vol. 44, No. 3, 2014) is a special theme issue on ‘Making Sense of Surveys and Censuses: Issues in Religious Self-Identification’, guest-edited by Abby Day and Lois Lee. It contains a number of contributions which will be of interest to BRIN readers, and these are detailed below (there are also three other papers on exclusively non-British topics). All can be accessed (via institutional subscription or pay-per-view options) through the journal issue homepage at:

http://www.tandfonline.com/toc/rrel20/44/3#.U94fmTZwbX4

Abby Day and Lois Lee, ‘Making Sense of Surveys and Censuses: Issues in Religious Self-Identification’ (pp. 345-56) – This provides a general introduction to the theme issue and summarizes the individual chapters. It also draws upon Day’s own research into the religion question in the 2001 UK census of population and upon her involvement in discussions with the Office for National Statistics regarding the 2011 and 2021 censuses.

Clive Field, ‘Measuring Religious Affiliation in Great Britain: The 2011 Census in Historical and Methodological Context’ (pp. 357-82) – This traces the history of the measurement of religious affiliation in Britain from the Reformation to the present day, with particular reference to the contribution of the Churches, the State, and empirical social science. Nominal affiliation is shown to have been universal until the time of the French Revolution and preponderant until as late as the 1980s. The phenomenon of religious ‘nones’ has emerged since the latter date, but its extent today is dependent upon the way each question about religious affiliation is formulated. Alternative question-wordings are revealed to lead to wide variations in the results obtained. There are twelve tables.

Conrad Hackett, ‘Seven Things to Consider When Measuring Religious Identity’ (pp. 396-413) – The author offers seven suggestions for those wishing to describe and understand religious identity using survey data. He draws upon a range of American and international examples to illustrate his arguments. One section (pp. 402-4) attempts to explain the apparent discrepancy in religious affiliation results between the 2010 Annual Population Survey in England and Wales and the 2011 census of population.

Serena Hussain and Jamil Sherif, ‘Minority Religions in the Census: The Case of British Muslims’ (pp. 414-33) – The article considers the benefits for religious groups of having census data on religion, and for Muslims in particular. Much space is given over to the successful campaign (involving, among others, the Muslim Council of Britain) to persuade Government to field a religion question in the 2001 census; to the profile of Muslims which emerged from the 2001 and 2011 censuses, not least concerning disadvantage; and to the public policy and media impacts of such data, including perceived Islamophobic responses to the results of the 2011 census. The authors conclude with a brief expression of concern about the potentially negative effects for publicly available data on religion of the proposed changes in the methodology for the 2021 UK census.

Martin Stringer, ‘Evidencing Superdiversity in the Census and Beyond’ (pp. 453-65) – The concept of ‘superdiverse’ communities, as originally defined by Steve Vertovec, is explored through the lens of religion and other census statistics for England and Wales, with particular reference to Birmingham. The discussion is somewhat inconclusive, partly because the full range of local census data was not available to the author at the time of writing, but the conclusion appears to be that a mix of quantitative and qualitative measures will be necessary to differentiate ‘superdiverse’ from simply ‘diverse’ communities. The paper will probably make most sense when read alongside Stringer’s book Discourses on Religious Diversity (Ashgate, 2013).

Lois Lee, ‘Secular or Nonreligious? Investigating and Interpreting Generic “Not Religious” Categories and Populations’ (pp. 466-82) – The author uses qualitative, ethnographic research among self-identifying non-religious in Cambridge and Greater London to investigate what non-religious categories actually measure, specifically whether they indicate non-affiliation or disaffiliation or an alternative form of cultural affiliation. The widespread assumption that such categories merely denote secularity or secularization is questioned, many who subscribe to non-religious categories identifying with substantive (albeit diverse) non-religious and spiritual cultures. Distinctions between religious and non-religious categories as, respectively, ‘positive’ and ‘negative’ are thus flattened. The paper is somewhat jargon-ridden.

Vivianne Crowley, ‘Standing Up To Be Counted: Understanding Pagan Responses to the 2011 British Censuses’ (pp. 483-501) – Although the number of people self-identifying as Pagan increased between the 2001 and 2011 censuses, from 44,000 to 85,000, many Pagans remain reluctant to declare their Paganism, and census statistics of Pagans thus fall below those from other sources. The paper principally reports the results of an online questionnaire completed by 1,706 Pagans in Britain in May-June 2013 who were recruited via ‘snowballing/viral methods’, the sample consequently being ‘skewed heavily towards those well-networked Pagans who are active in e-groups, rather than those whose community links are weaker and more diffuse’. Respondents were asked about how they had handled the 2011 census question on religion and about their motivations for doing so. Overall, 85% recollected that they had written in Pagan on the census form, the remainder opting for another religion category (including none), not answering the census question, or being unable to say what they had done two years before. Crowley concludes that: ‘The census is not a good instrument for measuring the number of Pagans in Britain, particularly when based on household rather than individual forms.’

2021 census

On 18 July 2014 the Government, under the signature of Francis Maude (Minister for the Cabinet Office), gave its response to the National Statistician’s recommendations for taking the 2021 population census. It accepted the proposal to have a predominantly online census in that year supplemented by more extensive use of administrative and survey data. However, Government made it clear that its support for this dual-track approach was restricted to 2021 and that its ‘ambition is that censuses after 2021 will be conducted using other sources of data and providing more timely statistical information’. The exact content of the 2021 census has still to be determined, so it is not yet definite that a question on religion will be included for a third time.

Christians, sex, and marriage

The UK’s practising Christians mostly continue to uphold a ‘traditional’ view of Christian marriage but are far from being strait-laced or immune from marital failure. This is according to a new survey by Christian Research on behalf of Christian Today, published on 30 July 2014, and for which 1,401 churchgoers and church leaders were interviewed online on 28-30 June 2014. More than two-thirds said that Christians should not cohabit before marriage. About four-fifths felt it important to marry another Christian, and of those who were married, a similar proportion had done so. Nearly seven in ten thought their spouse or partner had been specially ‘put aside’ for them by God, and almost half had explicitly looked for their ideal partner in a Christian context. Although two-thirds believed that personal desire did not need to translate into the sex act, more than seven in ten agreed that ‘my spouse/partner and I love the physical part’. Some 12% reported that their relationships had failed, in that they were either divorced or separated or remarried after divorce. A surprisingly high 0.6% of practising Christians claimed to be in civil partnerships, which only came into effect in December 2005, and this was the lead finding from the poll in the Christian Today coverage (there are currently no data tables in the public domain), which is at:

http://www.christiantoday.com/article/one.in.200.churchgoers.in.same.sex.relationships/39175.htm

Ex-Anglican Catholic Priests

Research by Professor Linda Woodhead and Fr Christopher Jamison, reported in the current issue of The Tablet (2 August 2014, p. 32), suggests that 389 Catholic priests in England and Wales are former Anglican clergy, most of them believed to be working in Catholic parishes and chaplaincies, and a very large proportion of them married. The figure is approaching one-tenth of all active Catholic priests, secular or religious, in England and Wales. Of the 389, it is estimated that 250 left the Church of England between 1994 (when the first women were ordained in that Church) and 2000, 52 from 2001 to the present, with a further 87 joining the Personal Ordinariate of Our Lady of Walsingham following its establishment in 2011. The report is online at:

http://www.thetablet.co.uk/news/1028/0/new-figures-show-almost-400-catholic-priests-were-anglicans

Muslim heroes

Today marks the centenary of Britain’s entry into the First World War. It is an appropriate moment to remember the service and sacrifice of millions from Britain and its then Empire who supported the war effort in the front line and on the home front. Among them were 400,000 Muslims, preponderantly from the then unpartitioned India (covering the area of the present-day India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh), who fought in the British armed forces, alongside 800,000 Hindus and 100,000 Sikhs. Few contemporary British citizens are aware of the strength of this Muslim contribution to the First World War, according to the results of an ICM Research poll for the British Future think tank which were released on 2 August 2014 to coincide with the Living Islam festival. Asked to estimate how many Muslims fought with Britain in the First World War, only 2% correctly placed the number between 250,000 and 500,000. Another 600,000 Muslims fought in the Second World War.

Islamic terrorism

Almost half (46%) of the population view Islamic terrorism as a critical threat to Britain, according to an opinion poll by YouGov, conducted online on 31 July and 1 August 2014 among 2,083 adults aged 18 and over. The proportion rose to 71% of UKIP voters, 60% with the over-60s, and 59% for Conservatives. A further 33% regarded Islamic terrorism as an important but not critical threat to Britain, bringing to 79% the figure for those deeming it some kind of serious threat (and 92% or 93% for Conservatives, UKIP supporters, and over-60s). Just 2% (peaking at 8% of 18-24s and 6% of Londoners) saw it as no threat at all, with another 10% assessing it as only a minor threat. Islamic terrorism was seen as a greater danger to Britain than Russia’s military in the post-Ukraine crisis world; 11% viewed Russia as a critical threat and 47% as an important but not critical threat. Data tables can be found at:

http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/1hdxa38zho/InternalResults_140801_NATO_W.pdf

Anti-Semitic incidents

The Community Security Trust announced on 31 July 2014 that the number of anti-Semitic incidents in the UK in the first six months of the year was, at 304, 36% up on the January-June 2013 figure. The reasons for the increase are unclear, since no specific ‘trigger event’ occurred during that half-year, but the Trust speculates that improved reporting of incidents as well as more anti-Semitism both contributed to the trend. Naturally excluded from the data are incidents registered in July 2014, over 130 of them in what the Trust describes as ‘the second worst outburst’ of anti-Semitism in recent memory, and largely linked to the ongoing Israeli military operation against Hamas in Gaza. Antisemitic Incidents Report, January-June 2014 can be downloaded from:

http://www.thecst.org.uk/docs/Incidents%20Report%20Jan%20-%20June%202014.pdf

Posted in Historical studies, Measuring religion, News from religious organisations, Religion and Politics, Religious Census, Survey news | Tagged Abby Day, Anti-Semitism, British Future, Catholic priests, census of population, Christian Research, Christian Today, Christopher Jamison, Church of England, Clive Field, Community Security Trust, Conrad Hackett, First World War, ICM Research, Islamic terrorism, Jamil Sherif, Linda Woodhead, Lois Lee, marriage, Martin Stringer, Muslims, non-religious, Pagans, Religion, Religious Affiliation, religious self-identification, Roman Catholic Church, Serena Hussain, sex, superdiversity, The Tablet, Vivianne Crowley, YouGov | Leave a comment

Women in the Church and Other News

Posted on July 29, 2014 by Clive D. Field

Women in the Church

Prompted by the recent debate (and decisive vote) about women bishops in the Church of England’s General Synod, Opinium Research resolved to test public opinion about several facets of the role of women in the Church. Questions were put to an online sample of 2,003 UK adults on 11-14 July 2014, with the results being published on 15 July. Key data are tabulated below for meaningfully-sized demographic sub-groups (unfortunately, some sub-groups, including regular churchgoers, had too few cases to be statistically reliable).

Q1.0 Women should be allowed to become bishops in the Church of England

% across	Agree	Disagree	Neither/ don’t know
All	56	7	37
Men	52	8	41
Women	60	6	34
18-34	52	4	43
35-54	57	7	37
55+	58	9	33
Anglican	62	7	31
Catholic	42	15	42
No religion	58	3	39

Q1.1 Women should be allowed to become clergy in the Roman Catholic Church

% across	Agree	Disagree	Neither/ don’t know
All	53	8	40
Men	49	9	42
Women	56	6	37
18-34	51	7	42
35-54	56	7	37
55+	51	9	40
Anglican	56	6	38
Catholic	48	24	28
No religion	54	4	43

Q1.2 The ordination of women is not consistent with Christian teaching

% across	Agree	Disagree	Neither/ don’t know
All	21	30	49
Men	25	25	50
Women	18	35	47
18-34	27	19	54
35-54	22	30	48
55+	15	40	45
Anglican	20	36	44
Catholic	36	24	41
No religion	15	30	55

Q1.3 Gender equality in religious organisations should be enforced by law

% across	Agree	Disagree	Neither/ don’t know
All	38	20	42
Men	35	22	42
Women	40	18	42
18-34	41	14	45
35-54	41	17	42
55+	32	28	40
Anglican	40	20	40
Catholic	27	35	37
No religion	40	13	46

Q1.4 Whether or not women are allowed to become priests or bishops is an important issue for the 21st century

% across	Agree	Disagree	Neither/ don’t know
All	46	14	40
Men	40	17	43
Women	52	10	37
18-34	43	11	46
35-54	45	14	41
55+	50	15	34
Anglican	55	10	34
Catholic	49	23	29
No religion	39	16	45

Q1.5 Whether or not women should be ordained as clergy is entirely a matter for each Christian denomination to decide

% across	Agree	Disagree	Neither/ don’t know
All	44	15	40
Men	46	12	41
Women	43	18	40
18-34	35	17	49
35-54	44	16	40
55+	53	13	34
Anglican	53	11	36
Catholic	58	18	25
No religion	32	21	48

At first sight, these results may seem a little surprising. Given the legislative and other strides taken toward gender equality in Britain, otherwise reflected in strong support in public opinion polling, the fact that, at best, only a slim majority appears to favour a greater role for women in the Church strikes one as odd. But the solution to the puzzle lies in the very substantial numbers unable to express a view on the matters surveyed (Q1.2 being a particular case in point), often, one imagines, because they considered themselves insufficiently well-informed to make a judgment or because they were indifferent to the issue. This is a phenomenon characteristic of a lot of polling on religion (see, also, the item on disestablishment, below).

Beyond that, females tended to endorse a stronger role for women in the Church than males, but the effect of age was less consistent save the disproportionate tendency of the 18-34s not to take sides. Anglicans were generally more favourable than Catholics to women assuming more responsibility in Church life, albeit almost half the latter endorsed women priests. People of no religion were only marginally more likely to take a gender diversity stance than the average, and they were disproportionately to be found among those registering as neutral or don’t know.

The full data are available at:

http://news.opinium.co.uk/sites/news.opinium.co.uk/files/op4677_opinium_pr_women_bishops_external.pdf

British values

The so-called ‘Trojan Horse’ plot in Birmingham schools recently triggered a political debate about the need to instil ‘British values’ in our children and citizens more generally. In BRIN’s post of 28 June 2014 we noted an initial attempt by ComRes on 11-13 June to define those values, by offering a representative sample of Britons a list of twelve candidate values, from which they were asked to select the most important. They included religious freedom (which was actually ranked tenth in significance).

Subsequently, on 25-27 June 2014, ICM Research (on behalf of British Future) proposed an alternative list of ten items to its online sample of 2,030 adults aged 18 and over. On this occasion, respondents were not specifically asked to rank them but to identify any which they deemed a ‘British value’. Respect for other people’s religion and beliefs was so regarded by 52% (with highs of 67% among the over-65s and 62% for the top AB social group), placing it in seventh position. The most prized British value was respect for the law (69%) and the least respect for MPs and others in elected office (18%). Data tables are at:

http://www.icmresearch.com/data/media/pdf/British%20Future-British-Values-June%202014-V2.pdf

Disestablishment

Only one-third of Britons think the official link between the Church of England and the state is good for Britain, according to a survey by ComRes for ITV News on 27-29 June 2014, for which 2,049 adults aged 18 and over were interviewed online. Support was greatest among the over-65s (41%), the top (AB) social group (40%), and retired people with a private pension (42%); it was least in Scotland (19%). The link was considered bad by 29% overall, peaking at 35% for men and in Wales and at 42% in Scotland. The remaining 38% of respondents were unable to express any view on the matter, rising to 46% in the case of the 18-24s and lowest (DE) social group, thereby reinforcing the impression from other polls that indifference and ignorance effectively help to shore up the current establishment of the Church. Full data tables can be found at:

http://www.comres.co.uk/polls/ITV_News_Index_EU__30th_June_2014.pdf

Gay cake row

The Christian Institute has taken up the case of the Christian family-run bakery in Belfast (Ashers Baking Company) which has been threatened with prosecution by the Equality Commission for Northern Ireland for its refusal to decorate a cake promoting same-sex marriage (which is not legal in the province). This followed a complaint against the business lodged by a gay activist. In pursuit of its campaign, the Institute commissioned ComRes to pose several questions to an online sample of 2,007 Britons on 16-17 July 2014, the results being published on 23 July.

Three-fifths of respondents thought the Commission had acted in a disproportionately heavy-handed way, with just 14% dissenting. A plurality (45%) agreed with the suggestion that ‘Christian-run businesses appear to be being singled out unfairly by gay activists in order to make an example of them’, and this was especially felt by men (54%), Conservatives (55%), the over-65s (62%), and UKIP voters (66%). One-quarter disagreed with the proposition (including one-third of under-35s and of Labourites and Liberal Democrats and 38% of Scots), while 30% voiced no opinion. Full results can be located at:

http://www.comres.co.uk/polls/CI_Bakery_Poll_July_2014.pdf

Posted in News from religious organisations, Religion and Politics, Religion in public debate, Survey news | Tagged Ashers Baking Company, Bishops, British Future, British values, Christian businesses, Christian Institute, Church of England, ComRes, disestablishment, Equality Commission for Northern Ireland, gender equality, ICM Research, ITV News, Opinium Research, ordination of women, priests, respect for religion and beliefs, Roman Catholic Church, same-sex marriage | 2 Comments

Christian Country and Other News

Posted on April 27, 2014 by Clive D. Field

Christian country?

The recent public and media debate about whether Britain is a Christian country or not, sparked by Prime Minister David Cameron’s comments before Easter, rumbles on. It has gained added impetus through Deputy Prime Minister Nick Clegg renewing the call for disestablishment of the Church of England (which is his Liberal Democrat Party’s long-standing policy).

In the last BRIN post, on 24 April 2014, Ben Clements subjected the controversy to empirical scrutiny by charting how the level of Christian affiliation has changed in Britain over recent decades, as reflected in sample surveys.

Here we offer a couple of poll-based time series about the public’s perceptions of whether Britain is a Christian country and should be one. In both cases there have been variations in methodology and question-wording between individual surveys, so the comparison is not entirely like-for-like, but we do get a sense of how attitudes have changed. The two tables appear at the end of this news item.

In terms of Britain being perceived as a Christian country, there has been a notable decline since the first poll on the subject, by NOP in 1965, when four-fifths of adults characterized Britain as Christian. This decrease is much as one might have expected, given the downward movement in most other indicators of Christian religious belonging, behaving, and believing since the 1960s.

Less anticipated, however, is the fact that the number considering Britain to be a Christian country reached a nadir after the Millennium and has risen since. The effect is probably exaggerated by the fact that the two YouGov surveys in 2007 asked whether Britain was mainly a Christian country, but question-wording alone probably does not fully explain what has been happening.

There appears to have been a reawakened sense of Britain’s Christian heritage and character. This may perhaps be attributed to: i) a growing backlash against multiculturalism and immigration and, particularly, deteriorating attitudes toward Islam and Muslims; ii) the influence of media and legal campaigns against allegedly ‘Christianophobic’ attitudes and behaviour, exemplified in ‘aggressive secularism’ and diversity legislation viewed as penalizing Christians; and iii) explicit and tacit support for Christianity as a bulwark of all faith on the part of some sections of non-Christian communities.

Interestingly, there seems to have been no parallel trend in response to the question whether Britain should be a Christian country. This indicator has decreased continuously since the 1960s, although it is notable that, even today, a majority (58%) thinks Britain should remain a Christian country. This is probably not true of most of those who profess no religion, but, unfortunately, there are no breaks by religion in the published tables for YouGov’s 2014 poll, despite a question on religious affiliation being asked.

So there is definite support for David Cameron among the British public in saying that Britain both is a Christian country and ought to be one. Precisely what Britons mean when they express these sentiments, given that de-Christianization mostly continues apace in practice, is pretty unclear. The fact that there are more ‘don’t knows’ on the topic than ever may suggest that there is genuine confusion.

Is Britain a Christian country?

%	Agency	Agree	Disagree	Don’t Know
3/1965	NOP	80	19	1
12/1989	Gallup	71	21	8
4/2007	YouGov	39	51	9
12/2007	YouGov	43	57	0
11/2010	ComRes	50	47	3
2/2012	YouGov	56	33	11
4/2014	YouGov	55	33	12
4/2014	ICM	56	30	14

Should Britain be a Christian country?

%	Agency	Agree	Disagree	Don’t Know
1-2/1968	ORC	81	15	3
3-4/1984	Harris	67	31	3
6-7/1987	Insight	69	22	8
2/2012	YouGov	61	22	18
4/2014	YouGov	58	23	19

Meanwhile, Michael Lipka of Pew Research Center’s Religion and Public Life Project has a statistical take on ‘Cameron’s “Christian Country”’ (using census and British Social Attitudes Survey data) at:

http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2014/04/24/camerons-christian-country-what-the-numbers-say-about-religion-in-the-united-kingdom/

Or post-Christian nation?

Britain’s cultural memory may be ‘quite strongly Christian’, but the reality is that it has become ‘post-Christian’ in that it is no longer ‘a nation of committed believers’. So says former Archbishop of Canterbury, Lord Williams of Oystermouth, in an interview with Cole Moreton for The Sunday Telegraph today (27 April 2014). The story is enriched by a poll which the newspaper commissioned from ICM Research, for which 2,001 adult Britons were interviewed online on 23-25 April 2014. The data tables will presumably appear on ICM’s website in due course (they are not there at the time of writing), but there is reasonable coverage of the findings in the article on pp. 1-2 of the newspaper which can be found at:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/religion/10790495/Former-archbishop-of-Canterbury-We-are-a-post-Christian-nation.html

Notwithstanding the fact that only 14% of respondents described themselves as practising Christians, with a further 38% as non-practising Christians, 56% continued to regard Britain as a Christian country, rising to 73% of over-65s and, surprisingly perhaps, including more men than women. Less than one-third (30%) said Britain was a non-religious society, although 41% thought of themselves as non-religious. A plurality of the whole sample (48%) asserted that Christians are afforded less protection for their beliefs by the state than adherents of other faiths, with the proportion reaching 57% among the over-65s, 56% for practising Christians, and 62% for non-practising Christians. Overall, 28% perceived Christians as having the same and 8% greater protection than other religions. One-half of respondents also agreed that Christians had become afraid to express their beliefs because of the rise of ‘religious fundamentalism’, with 32% disagreeing and 18% uncertain. Even two-fifths of non-religious people agreed with this statement compared with over three-fifths of Christians (both practising and non-practising).

Surrogate religion

Confirmation that football is a surrogate religion for its devotees, a periodic theme in the sociological literature, appears to come from a recent survey conducted by The Leadership Factor (TLF) on behalf of the makers of Warren United, a new animated sitcom about a fervent fan of a chronically disappointing football team (no, not Manchester United, which has been in the news for all the wrong reasons last week!) Through its YourSayPays online panel, TLF quizzed 1,201 football fans (all of whom attended one or more professional games a season) in March 2014. They were asked whether they agreed or disagreed with the statement that ‘I am more likely to change my religion than the football team I support’. The majority of fans (56%) agreed with this proposition and only 18% disagreed. For the sub-set of 255 really dedicated fans who were season ticket holders with their clubs, the level of assent was still higher (75%) and dissent reduced to 10%. A press release about the poll was issued on 17 April 2014 and can be found at:

http://www.warrenunited.net/id-change-my-religion-before-my-team-say-fans/

An ancient saint

St George’s Day has been and gone for another year (it was on 23 April, in case you missed it). According to a YouGov poll for Channel 5 among 1,461 adults on 22-23 April 2014, England is seen as the UK’s home nation least good at celebrating its patron saint’s day. Just 7% think the English excel at honouring St George, compared with 8% for the Scots and St Andrew, 12% for the Welsh and St David, and 59% for the Northern Irish and St Patrick. Two-thirds would like to see the English do more to celebrate St George’s Day, disproportionately Conservative and UKIP voters and with the Scots (24%) being the main dissentients, and 69% support the day being made an official bank holiday in England. The data tables are at:

http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/7sicd7muvh/Channel5_Results_140422_StGeorgesDay.pdf

A modern saint

Two of the great leaders of the twentieth-century Roman Catholic Church, Popes John XXIII and John Paul II, were canonized by Pope Francis in a ceremony in St Peter’s Square, Vatican City today (27 April 2014), which was also attended by Pope Emeritus Benedict XVI. So far as BRIN is aware, no surveys have yet been carried out in Britain to test the reactions of the public or the Catholic faithful to the canonizations. However, John Paul II was the subject of polling during the time when he was Pope (from 1978 until his death in 2005), not least in connection with his pastoral and ecumenical visit to Britain between 28 May and 5 June 1982 (which was overshadowed by the war between Britain and Argentina for control of the Falkland Islands). A digest of this polling forms part of my forthcoming article in Journal of Religion in Europe on ‘No Popery’s Ghost: Does Popular Anti-Catholicism Survive in Contemporary Britain?’ However, given the canonization, a few anticipatory points may be made here, although we will not be summarizing the many polls by Gallup about the visit itself (you will need to read the article for them).

John Paul II’s papal visit, combined with the length of his pontificate, meant he became a well-known figure in Britain, 62% of adults being able to name him in August 2003 (MORI), albeit only 7% recognized his birth name of Karol Wojtyla in November 2004 (BMRB). On the eve of his visit, in April 1982 (NOP), he was rated a very good or good religious leader by 78% and a very good or good world leader by 45%. His religious leadership qualities were still positively assessed (by 74%) in March 1993 (Continental Research), albeit he was eclipsed by fellow Catholic Mother Teresa in Gallup popularity rankings of religious figures in December 1987, December 1988, and September 1989. One-fifth of Britons continued to regard John Paul II as inspirational in December 2000 (MORI), but, by this time, his influence was waning through increasing frailty and conservatism. In June 2004 (Harris) he was rated positively by just 31% in Britain, and negatively by 29%, the positive score being lowest of the five Western European nations surveyed (and well behind Italy, on 78%). The worst of the worldwide revelations about child sex abuse by Roman Catholic priests came out since John Paul II’s death, but they clearly occurred on his ‘papal watch’, and many have opposed his canonization on the grounds that he did not do enough to root out the scandal and punish the perpetrators. More generally, the perceived inadequate response to the abuse crisis by the Roman Catholic Church has been a major factor in increased polling negativity toward it during recent years, both among the public and Catholics.

When we’re 42

Newly released to the UK Data Service’s Nesstar catalogue as SN 7473 is the latest wave of the 1970 British Cohort Study, which has been following the lives of babies born in Britain one week in 1970. Information was gathered by TNS BMRB between May 2012 and April 2013 from 9,841 members of the cohort at the age of 42, by a combination of face-to-face interview and self-completion questionnaire. Here we present the topline findings for the religion questions for all those who provided valid answers. No weighting is applicable.

Affiliation: Two-thirds of the cohort received a religious upbringing, but only half still profess a religion now, all Christian denominations losing market share, but especially the Church of England. The figures are as follows:

%	Upbringing	At age 42
None	33.0	49.8
Non-denominational Christian	14.2	13.7
Church of England	30.1	20.6
Roman Catholic	10.9	7.1
Other Christian	8.2	4.5
Non-Christian	3.7	4.3

Practices: Three-quarters never or very rarely attend any religious services, while 10% claim to go monthly or more and 15% occasionally. Attendance has diminished slightly since cohort members were aged 29, when 11% went monthly or more, 17% occasionally, and 72% never or rarely. Membership of a religious group or church organization is claimed by 7%, as is readership of factual books on religion or philosophy.

Beliefs: Disbelievers in God number 22%, with a further 14% disbelieving in a personal God. The uncertain amount to 21%, while 12% believe in God some of the time, 19% believe but have doubts, and 12% are absolutely convinced that God exists. A slim majority (52%) definitely or probably does not believe in life after death, with 18% definitely believing and 30% probably.

Opinions: Very few (6%) agree that ‘we trust too much in science, not enough in religious faith’, 57% disagreeing and 36% undecided. One-half agree that ‘people with strong religious beliefs are often too intolerant’, with just 14% saying the opposite and 35% uncertain. Still more (67%) concur that ‘around the world, religions bring more conflict than peace’, 11% dissenting and 22% expressing no view.

Posted in church attendance, Historical studies, Religion and Politics, Religion in public debate, Religion in the Press, Survey news | Tagged 1970 British Cohort Study, changing religion, Channel 5, Christian country, church attendance, conflict, David Cameron, football, God, ICM Research, intolerance, John Paul II, life after death, Michael Lipka, patron saints, practising Christians, Religious Affiliation, religious freedom, science, St George's Day, Sunday Telegraph, The Leadership Factor, TNS-BMRB, Warren United, YouGov | 1 Comment

From St George to Prince George

Posted on October 24, 2013 by Clive D. Field

Prince George and St George both feature in today’s round-up of religious statistical news, which contains five items.

Prince George’s christening

The private christening ceremony for His Royal Highness Prince George of Cambridge, which took place yesterday (23 October 2013), seems to have attracted more media and public attention than might have been anticipated. One dimension of this was a short poll conducted by YouGov the day before the christening, and released on the day of the christening, in which 1,892 adult Britons were interviewed online. The data table can be found at:

http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/rdc3a53eph/YG-Archive-Prince-George-Christening-results-231013.pdf

According to the poll, 43% of Britons still consider ceremonies such as christenings or baptisms to be important, but they are disproportionately found among professing Christians (64%), and the over-60s and Conservative voters (58% each), with only one-third of under-40s thinking such ceremonies to be relevant. By contrast, a majority of adults (52%) do not regard baptisms as important, rising to 57% for men, 57% for the 25-59 age group (the key one for child-rearing), 66% of Scots, and 73% of non-Christians.

The same proportion who agree that baptism remains important, 43%, say that they would prefer their own child (if they had one) to be baptised as a baby, increasing to 58% of over-60s and 68% of Christians. A plurality (47%) contends that children should make up their own mind when older, this being especially the view of Scots (62%) and non-Christians (69%).

The Archbishop of Canterbury, Justin Welby, has expressed the hope that Prince George’s christening will encourage others to seek baptism for their children. Almost half (45%) of YouGov’s respondents anticipate that the royal christening will, indeed, boost the number of baptisms in the country, Conservatives being most confident (54%). A similar amount (44%) anticipate that there will be no change in the occurrence of baptisms.

On the face of it, there seems little basis for any optimism, since the long-term trend in baptisms has been relentlessly downwards. In the case of the Church of England, the best source of data, infant baptisms represented 66% of live births in England when first reported in 1902. The figure peaked at 72% in the 1920s but nosedived from the mid-1950s, dipping below 30% in 1987, below 20% in 2000, and standing at 12% in 2011.

For the United Kingdom as a whole, Dr Peter Brierley has assembled a picture from actual and estimated data for all Christian denominations which practise infant baptism. In Table 2.2 of UK Christian Handbook, Religious Trends, No. 3 (2001), he shows the ratio of baptisms to live births peaking (at around 90%) in the inter-war and immediate post-war period before falling to 74% in 1960, 64% in 1970, 53% in 1980, and 42% in 1990. A revised calculation, in Table 13.8.3 of UK Church Statistics, 2005-2015 (2011), reveals a decline from 55% in 1991 to 34% in 2010, Anglicans in the four home nations having a baptismal market share of 58% by 2010, Roman Catholics 36%, and other Protestants 6%.

Religion and loneliness

Sample surveys can sometimes be useful in contrasting perception with reality. A case in point is provided by a new poll on loneliness commissioned by the BBC from ComRes for this year’s Radio 2 Faith in the World Week, in which 3,010 adult Britons were interviewed by telephone between 13 and 29 September 2013. Full data tables were published on 18 October and are available at:

http://www.comres.co.uk/polls/BBC_Religion_Loneliness_Survey_Britain_October_2013.pdf

Respondents were asked whether they perceived that people with a religious faith are less likely to feel lonely than people without such beliefs. Overall, opinion was divided on the issue, with 44% thinking people of faith are less likely to feel lonely and 47% that they are not. Significantly, the highest level of agreement with the statement (59%) was found among the quarter of the sample who claimed to practise their religion (in private or in public) at least once a month, perhaps implying that religion minimizes loneliness through the associational opportunities it provides and/or the comfort which it brings.

However, when interviewees were asked whether they themselves ever felt lonely, those who practised a religion were actually more likely than average to experience loneliness in some degree (55% against 48%), with even higher figures for practising Christians (57%) and those who live alone and are religious (68%). Individuals who do not practise a religion were slightly less likely than average to experience loneliness (46%), albeit this rose to 62% among the non-religious who live on their own. The highest incidence of acute loneliness (being felt all the time or regularly) in the survey was among religious individuals who lived alone (14%, more than twice the mean).

Similarly, people who practise a religion were more likely than average to report that they felt more lonely than 10 years ago (28% against 22%), while the proportion fell to 20% for those who do not practise a religion. Those who live alone and are religious were the group most likely (43%) to admit to being lonelier than a decade ago.

The apparent conundrum (that religion might increase rather than diminish loneliness) is perhaps largely explained by the fact that the over-65 cohort has the highest concentration of people who claim to practise their religion (32% versus the norm of 24%) and who live on their own (54% compared with 26% for Britain as a whole). Not unnaturally, living on one’s own is closely associated with a sense of loneliness.

All the saints

The English would like to see St George’s Day celebrated more, despite the fact that only 40% are aware of exactly when it falls (23 April). This compares with 71% who know that United States Independence Day is on 4 July and 42% that St Patrick’s Day is on 17 March. Two-thirds consider that St Patrick’s Day is now more widely celebrated here than the English patron saint’s day, with only 7% arguing that St George gets more attention. Three-quarters say that they would like to see this situation change, 41% blaming the absence of a bank holiday for St George’s Day as a reason for the lack of commemoration, and 35% attributing it to politicians’ failing to focus on St George’s Day. A majority (61%) also wants the St George’s flag flown more across the country. The findings come from a poll by ICM Research for British Future in connection with the latter’s recent Festival of Englishness. Online interviews were conducted with 2,360 adults in Britain on 9-11 October 2013, including 1,739 in England. Results have been reported in various online media.

Church of England ministry statistics

The Research and Statistics Division of the Archbishops’ Council published Statistics for Mission, 2012 – Ministry on 18 October 2013. It comprises 15 tables and 21 figures preceded by a summary and explanatory notes. The Church of England had 28,314 licensed ministers in 2012, 65% of whom received no stipend. Licensed stipendiary (mainly parochial) clergy comprised just 29% of this total, their numbers reduced by 13% since 2002. This decline was offset by a rise of 51% in self-supporting clergy over the decade, who are disproportionately female (52% in 2012 against 23% of full-time stipendiary clergy). A 6% fall in stipendiary clergy is forecast for the next five years, entirely among men, with women clergy expected to increase slowly. Women constituted 47% of candidates recommended for ordination training in 2012, but they were significantly older than male candidates; whereas 60% of male ordinands were under 40, 72% of women were over 40. The average age of full-time stipendiary clergy increased between 2002 and 2012, from 50 to 52 years for men and from 48 to 51 for women. Very few stipendiary clergy (3%) come from ethnic minority backgrounds. The report can be found at:

http://www.churchofengland.org/media/1868964/ministry%20statistics%20final.pdf

Veils reprised

The debate about the veiling of Muslim women rumbles on, with fresh polling data released by Survation on 14 October 2013 from its immigration study conducted for Sky News on 27-29 September 2013 among an online sample of 1,508 Britons aged 18 and over. Data tables (of which those for questions 40 to 46 are relevant for our immediate purpose) have been posted at:

http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/Full-Sky-News-Immigration-Tables.pdf

As with other surveys reported on BRIN, the majority in the Survation poll was opposed to this particular aspect of Islamic women’s dress, the proportion varying somewhat dependent upon the context:

84% want the wearing of full face coverings such as the niqab to be banned in courtrooms for people giving evidence (11% disagreeing)
80% want bank managers/owners to be free to ban face coverings on their premises (13% disagreeing)
72% want the wearing of full face coverings such as the niqab to be banned for all front-line staff in hospitals (8% disagreeing, with a further 16% thinking it should be for individual hospitals to determine)
70% want petrol station managers/owners to be free to ban face coverings on their premises (22% disagreeing)
68% want shop managers/owners to be free to ban face coverings on their premises (25% disagreeing)
68% want the wearing of full face coverings such as the niqab to be banned for all schoolchildren in classrooms (10% disagreeing, with a further 19% thinking it should be for individual schools to determine)
66% want university managers/owners to be free to ban face coverings on their premises (27% disagreeing)
66% do not want schools to be able to require pupils to wear face covering veils and want the government to prevent them from doing so (26% disagreeing)
60% want the wearing of full face coverings such as the niqab to be banned in public streets and open spaces (32% disagreeing)
56% consider that women who wear full face covering veils like the niqab are more responsible for creating divisions and tensions in our society than the politicians and journalists who criticize veil-wearing women (26%)

Posted in Historical studies, News from religious organisations, Religion in public debate, Rites of Passage, Survey news | Tagged baptism, BBC, British Future, christening, Church of England, clergy, ComRes, Englishness, face coverings, Faith in the World Week, ICM Research, Islamophobia, loneliness, ministry, Muslims, niqab, patron saints, Peter Brierley, Prince George of Cambridge, religious dress, religious faith, rites of passage, Sky News, St George, Survation, veils, women, YouGov | 1 Comment

Census, Corruption, Confidence, Curriculum, and Charity

Posted on August 12, 2013 by Clive D. Field

Today we feature five Cs of religious statistics – census, corruption, confidence, curriculum, and charity – in our latest round-up of newly-released quantitative data.

Census – local characteristics on religion

More data from the 2011 census of population were released by the Office for National Statistics on 31 July 2013 in the form of local characteristics on ethnicity, identity, language, and religion for output areas in England and Wales. The release provides the first cross-tabulations of two or more topics for output areas. More information and links to the data can be found at:

http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/census/2011-census/local-characteristics-on-ethnicity–identity–language-and-religion-for-output-areas-in-england-and-wales/index.html

The religion-specific tables are:

LC2107EW Religion by sex by age
LC2201EW Ethnic group by religion
LC2204EW National identity by religion
LC2207EW Country of birth by religion by sex
LC6205EW Economic activity by religion by sex by age
LC6207EW NS-SeC by religion

although there is only space to highlight a couple here.

The breakdown of religion by ethnicity is shown below. Contrary to what many people might think, Muslims are not the most ethnically homogenous faith community – they are ‘only’ 68% Asian and include significant numbers of whites (8%) and blacks (10%). Most ethnically homogenous are Hindus (96% Asian) and Christians, Jews, and persons of no religion – all around 93% white.

% across	White	Mixed	Asian	Black	Other
All religious groups	86.0	2.2	7.5	3.3	1.0
Christian	92.7	1.7	1.4	3.9	0.3
Buddhist	33.8	4.0	59.7	1.1	1.5
Hindu	1.5	1.2	95.7	0.7	0.9
Jewish	92.4	1.6	1.1	0.6	4.3
Muslim	7.8	3.8	67.6	10.1	10.7
Sikh	1.8	1.2	87.1	0.3	9.6
Other religion	76.0	3.1	16.5	3.0	1.5
No religion	93.4	2.8	2.5	1.0	0.4
Not stated	86.4	3.1	5.8	3.7	1.1

NS-SeC (National Statistics Socio-Economic Classification) is collapsed into eight main categories (excluding those not classified), of which three, at the extremes of the spectrum, appear below: (1) = higher managerial, administrative, professional; (7) = routine; and (8) = never worked or long-term unemployed. Most ‘affluent’ on this indicator are the Jews, who are almost twice as likely to be in higher managerial, administrative or professional occupations as the norm, and only one-quarter as likely to be in routine jobs. Most disadvantaged are Muslims, 24% of whom have never worked or are long-term unemployed, four times the national average, although cultural factors will account for some of the differential.

% across	(1)	(7)	(8)
All religious groups	9.9	11.6	5.9
Christian	9.2	12.6	4.5
Buddhist	11.1	8.5	8.5
Hindu	17.1	7.4	9.1
Jewish	19.2	2.9	5.2
Muslim	6.3	8.7	23.8
Sikh	9.6	12.5	9.8
Other religion	10.6	8.4	6.2
No religion	11.6	10.2	5.7
Not stated	10.0	11.4	7.0

Corruption – Global Corruption Barometer

One-third of the population considers that religious bodies in this country are corrupt or extremely corrupt, according to the results of the Global Corruption Barometer (GCB), 2013, which were published on 9 July 2013 by the Berlin-based organization Transparency International: The Global Coalition against Corruption. The publics of 107 nations were surveyed on a variety of corruption-related topics between September 2012 and March 2013, with 1,000 adults being interviewed online in the UK by ORB International. A report on the study and various other outputs can be found at:

http://www.transparency.org/research/gcb

Asked to assess the extent to which twelve national organizations were affected by corruption, 34% of the UK sample said that religious bodies are corrupt or extremely corrupt (against 29% globally). Although this was a smaller proportion than made the same claim against the media (69%), political parties (66%), Parliament (55%), business (49%), and civil servants (45%), it was higher than for the police (32%), the judiciary (24%), medical and health services (19%), education (18%), NGOs (18%), and the military (17%). The UK figure for religious bodies was also almost double the 18% recorded in the 2005 GCB.

The mean corruption scores (on a scale of 1 to 5) for the UK and all 107 countries investigated in the 2013 GCB are set out in the following table, with comparisons for 2005, (when 69 countries were surveyed):

	2013	2013	2005	2005
	UK	Global	UK	Global
Political parties	3.9	3.8	3.5	4.0
Media	3.9	3.1	3.2	3.2
Parliament	3.6	3.6	3.2	3.7
Business	3.5	3.3	3.0	3.4
Civil servants	3.3	3.6	NA	NA
Religious bodies	3.0	2.6	2.4	2.6
Police	3.0	3.7	2.8	3.6
Judiciary	2.7	3.6	2.9	3.5
NGOs	2.6	2.7	2.5	2.8
Education system	2.6	3.1	2.1	3.0
Medical/health services	2.6	3.2	2.2	3.2
Military	2.5	2.8	2.5	2.9

The corruption score for religious bodies in the UK has increased over time from 2.4 in 2005 to 2.8 in 2006 and 2007 to 3.0 in 2010 and 2013, despite the global score remaining flat. This seems to exemplify growing perceptions of corruption affecting most UK national institutions (with the exception of the judiciary and the military), rather than specific evidence of corruption by UK religious bodies. While one can identify many reasons why the overall public standing of religious bodies may have declined of recent years, notably for the Anglican and Catholic Churches and Islam, it is not so easy to explain why they should be thought of as becoming more corrupt.

Confidence – trust in the Church

The Church is the fourteenth most trusted of twenty-four national institutions, according to a survey conducted by nfpSynergy in May 2013 among an online sample of 1,000 Britons aged 16 and over, and published on 16 July 2013. Just 30% of respondents said that they had a great deal or quite a lot of trust in the Church, a lower proportion than in the ten previous surveys carried out during the past decade through the nfpSynergy Charity Awareness Monitor. Trust in the Church stood at 42% in November 2003 and has tended to fall since, but somewhat erratically (with a rise from 32% in January and July 2011 to 38% in May 2012). By contrast, a majority of the population (61%, eight points more than in May 2012) now claims they have very little or not much trust in the Church, albeit this is still not quite as bad a rating as for banks (77%), newspapers (79%), Government (80%), and political parties (88%). The institutions which command the greatest confidence are the armed forces (78% stating that they trust them a great deal or quite a lot), the scouts and guides (67%), the National Health Service (67%), charities (66%), and schools (65%). The press release and slides relating to the May 2013 study are at:

http://nfpsynergy.net/trust-charities-third-year-running

Curriculum – benefits of religious education

Religious education (RE) is the secondary school subject regarded as having least educational benefit according to a poll published on 9 August 2013 and conducted among 1,844 UK adults aged 18 and over who had attended secondary school in the UK. They were interviewed online by Opinium Research between 12 and 16 July 2013. Shown a list of 17 school subjects, 21% identified RE as being least beneficial to their education, rising to 24% among men, 26% for those aged 35-54, and 27% for residents of Yorkshire and Humberside and Wales. The next most non-beneficial subject was art (cited by 16%), followed by physical education (10%). At the other end of the spectrum, biology, ICT, and sex education scored just 1% each, suggesting they were deemed most useful beyond school. Full results are on pp. 12-15 of the data tables at:

http://news.opinium.co.uk/sites/news.opinium.co.uk/files/OP3507%20-%20Opinium%20PR%20-%20Education%20-%20SET%20FOUR%20-%20Tables.pdf

Charity – charitable giving by Muslims

British Muslims are increasingly donating to charity online, with the month of Ramadan causing a spike in digital giving. This is according to a press release from JustGiving, which describes itself as the world’s leading online giving platform, on 20 July 2013. The claim about Muslim charitable donations is based on two sources. First, the value of donations by British Muslims to Muslim and non-Muslim causes via JustGiving increased from £116,000 in 2010 to £200,000 in 2012. Second, JustGiving commissioned ICM Research to undertake an online survey of 4,000 adults between 22 and 27 June 2013, which suggested that Muslims gave more than twice as much per capita to charity last year as the average Briton (£371 versus £165). Jews were the next most generous faith group (£270), while Protestants gave £202 and atheists only £116. The full results of the ICM study are apparently not being published at this stage, the foregoing being based on a report in The Times for 20 July 2013 and on JustGiving’s press release at:

http://www.justgiving.com/en/SharedMedia/press-releases/Ramadan%20donations%20cause%20spike%20in%20digital%20giving.pdf

Posted in Official data, Religion and Ethnicity, Religion and Social Capital, Religious Census, Survey news | Tagged census of population, charitable giving, Charity Awareness Monitor, church, corruption, educational benefit, ethnicity, Global Corruption Barometer, ICM Research, Jews, JustGiving, mfpSynergy, Muslims, Office for National Statistics, Opinium Research, ORB International, Religious Affiliation, religious bodies, religious education, secondary schools, socio-economic classification, Transparency International, trust | Leave a comment

Prayer in a Spin

Posted on March 27, 2013 by Clive D. Field

The Church of England seems to have raised a few statistical eyebrows with its confident declaration, contained in a press release on 26 March 2013, that ‘four out of five believe in the power of prayer’. The Church was seeking to mark the start of Holy Week and to refresh its Pray One for Me website, which it had launched last year. The press release is available at:

http://churchofengland.org/media-centre/news/2013/03/four-out-of-five-believe-in-the-power-of-prayer.aspx

The Church based its claim on a misreading of the fact that 81% of the 2,015 adult Britons interviewed online by ICM Research on 13-14 March 2013, in a poll commissioned by the Church, had replied ‘something’ in answer to the question ‘irrespective of whether you currently pray or not, if you were to pray for something at the moment, what would it be for?’ This was slightly below the figure (85%) in the equivalent poll this time last year, covered by BRIN at:

http://www.brin.ac.uk/news/2012/eastertide-anglican-news/

The number saying they would never pray for anything was 14%, peaking at 19% among men and those aged 35-44, and falling to 9% for the over-65s and the youngest (18-24 years) cohort. The score for this latter age group (85% stated they would pray for something) was boosted by the 15% of them who said they would pray for their studies, which was five times as many as in the nation as a whole. The score was equalled by women but exceeded by the over-65s (89%).

Overall, the most popular subjects of prospective prayer were: peace in the world (31%), an end to poverty in the world (27%), a family member (26%), and healing for another (22%). Multiple responses were permitted. Overtly religious topics were not especially popular; only 8% wanted to pray for their spiritual life and 4% for their church, both figures being highest for the over-65s. The full data table, including breaks by demographics, can be viewed at:

http://churchofengland.org/media/1704430/prayersurvey.pdf

In his coverage of the ICM poll on page 10 of the print edition of the Daily Telegraph for 26 March, John Bingham rather added to the Anglican spin on the results. Not only was ‘four in five’ somewhat inflated to ‘the power of prayer endures for six people out of seven’, by omitting the don’t knows, but the article (expressing similar sentiments to the Church’s own press release) commenced with the unwarranted interpretation of the findings that ‘a large majority of people still believe that prayers can be answered …’ (which they were never asked about). The version of Bingham’s piece now available online has evidently been ‘toned down’ from the print copy so is perhaps of diminished interest; it can be read at:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/religion/9953128/Britons-still-believe-in-prayer-and-young-lead-the-way-poll-suggests.html

Two prominent bloggers have already hit back at the apparent spin. Writing on the New Statesman website, Alex Hern declared that ‘for a bunch of people who want to save our souls, the Church of England is remarkably happy to commit sins against statistics’. See:

http://www.newstatesman.com/sci-tech/2013/03/church-england-commits-sins-against-statistics

Similarly, Anthony Wells of UK Polling Report argued that ‘the Church of England have gone rather rogue in interpreting the results’, and that ‘the Telegraph has gone on a similar flight of fancy’. See his blog for 26 March 2013 at:

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/

Whatever the spin, it is also the case that the incidence of regular prayer is much lower than some might infer from the ICM question, which was deliberately phrased to be aspirational. In the most recent survey to cover the matter (undertaken by YouGov on 25-30 January 2013 for this year’s Westminster Faith Debates), 21% of the 4,437 respondents claimed to have engaged in private prayer during the last month. In terms of secular demographics, the proportion was highest among the over-60s (25%), Londoners (25%), degree-holders (25%), and women (26%).

In this poll, YouGov found above-average claims of monthly prayer among all those professing a faith, but particularly by Baptists (68%) and Muslims (72%). Some of the highest figures were for those deriving authority in their life from religious leaders (81%), religion (75%), and God (71%). Reported monthly prayer was five times as great for those practising their faith in public (67%) as for those who did not (13%). Thanks are due to Linda Woodhead for granting permission to quote these unpublished data.

A previous YouGov survey, this time conducted for The Sun on 3-4 April 2012 with a sample of 1,742, discovered rather more Britons (28%) who claimed to pray monthly or more often, 23% less frequently, with 45% never praying (ranging from 55% of 18-24s to 33% of over-60s). However, fewer (31%, and no more than 40% even among the over-60s) believed that prayer actually works (in that it is heard by God or physically answered in some other way), with 45% disbelieving, and 25% unsure. The tables are still available at:

http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/qtsd1ldqta/YG-Archives-Pol-Sun-EasterReligionresults-120412.pdf

Posted in News from religious organisations, Religion in public debate, Religion in the Press, Survey news | Tagged Alex Hern, Anthony Wells, Church of England, Daily Telegraph, ICM Research, John Bingham, Linda Woodhead, New Statesman, prayer, The Sun, UK Polling Report, Westminster Faith Debates, YouGov | Leave a comment

BRIN’s Christmas Crackers

Posted on December 21, 2012 by Clive D. Field

Our jokes may be as bad, but hopefully our content is more informative than the average Christmas cracker’s! In this our last round-up of religious statistical news before Christmas, we feature eight stories which will hopefully be of interest to readers of this website. The whole BRIN team wishes you all an enjoyable festive season.

Global religious landscape

On 18 December 2012 the internationally respected Pew Research Center published The Global Religious Landscape: A Report on the Size and Distribution of the World’s Major Religious Groups as of 2010 as part of the Pew-Templeton Global Religious Futures Project. At the core of the document (pp. 45-50) is a table setting out the estimated religious composition of 232 countries and territories in 2010 broken down as percentages for eight groups: Christians, Muslims, religiously unaffiliated, Hindus, Buddhists, folk religionists, other religions, and Jews. This table has been compiled, in consultation with many experts, in accordance with a rigorous methodology (outlined on pp. 51-67) and utilizing the best available evidence for each country (pp. 68-80). The report can be read at:

http://www.pewforum.org/uploadedFiles/Topics/Religious_Affiliation/globalReligion-full.pdf

Three of these countries and territories are the Channel Islands, Isle of Man, and the United Kingdom. The figures for the first two are derived from the World Religion Database. Those for the UK are described (on p. 80) as ‘estimates based on 2010 Office for National Statistics Annual Population Survey and 2001 Census for Northern Ireland, adjusted for missing data and to account for underrepresented religious groups’. Unfortunately, Pew’s UK data are superficially hard to square with the findings of the 2011 religious census of England and Wales, published on 11 December, not least in seemingly overestimating the number of Christians (which Pew reckons to amount to 71.1% of the UK population) and somewhat underestimating the religiously unaffiliated (at 21.3%). Conrad Hackett, one of the two primary researchers behind the report (the other being Brian Grim) has kindly offered to share with BRIN readers some possible explanations for the apparent discrepancy between Pew’s calculations and the census. His post will appear on the BRIN site in due course.

Membership of religious groups

Hard on the heels of the release of the 2011 religious census results for England and Wales comes the publication (on 18 December 2012) of a very large opinion poll which collected information about another facet of religious identity. It was commissioned by Lord Michael Ashcroft (international businessman, author, and philanthropist) as part of his regular series of polls on political issues, this one focused on the United Kingdom Independence Party. The survey was conducted online between 9 and 19 November 2012 among a sample of 20,066 Britons aged 18 and over. The religion question asked was rather different to that in the census: ‘To which of the following religious groups do you consider yourself to be a member of?’ The concept of membership was not defined. This formulation is more analogous to, but certainly not identical with, the ‘belonging’ question in the annual British Social Attitudes Surveys.

In reply, 55% of Ashcroft’s interviewees said Christian, 6% non-Christian, and 36% none, with 2% refusals. The most substantial demographic variations were by age and voting intention. The proportion of Christians was lowest (36%) among the 18-24s and rose steadily throughout the age cohorts to stand at 73% with the over-65s. For those saying they were members of no religious groups, the trend was in the opposite direction, starting high at 50% for the 18-24s and falling to reach 22% of the over-65s. Conservatives were 14% more likely to be Christians than Labour voters and 15% more than Liberal Democrats; and they were 11% less likely than the other two main parties to have no religion. For more details, see table 88 of the data tables at:

http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/12/UKIP-poll-full-tables.pdf

Religion census in Wales

The Welsh Government published a statistical bulletin on 17 December 2012 setting out first results from the 2011 census for ethnicity, national identity, and religion for Wales. For those particularly interested in Welsh data, this summarizes in two simple tables the Welsh religious affiliation figures included in the Excel spreadsheets released for the whole of England and Wales on 11 December. Table 5 compares the religion results for 2011 with those in 2001 for the whole of Wales. The principal changes were the fall in the number of professing Christians, from 71.9% to 57.6%, and the increase in the proportion of those stating no religion, from 18.5% to 32.1%. Non-Christians were comparatively thin on the ground, only 2.7% (even if ‘any other religion’ is included), albeit Muslims rose from 0.7% to 1.5% of the Welsh population. Table 6 provides breakdowns for 2011 at local authority level. To read more, go to:

http://wales.gov.uk/docs/statistics/2012/121217sb1262012en.pdf

Andrew Brown on the census

From Andrew Brown’s weekly review of the press in Church Times, 14 December 2012, p. 24: ‘The Guardian had on its website a couple of really interesting little graphs showing the correlations between income and religious allegiance by local authority … “Nones” showed a fairly flat distribution across income areas. That strengthens the idea that they are now a kind of default state. Other religions, even Islam, showed up as growing more common with increasing prosperity. I think, though, that this is skewed by the fact that Bangladeshi immigrants were very suspicious of the religious question on the Census. But two groups really stood out. The poorest local authorities were also those likely to report high levels of Christian identification – which is hardly the pattern you would expect from church statistics. Buddhism shows just as clear a pattern as it grows, but in the opposite direction.’

Sharing the gospel

Evangelism is the theme of the latest (and seventh) report in the Evangelical Alliance’s 21st Century Evangelicals series, commissioned in partnership with eight other Christian organizations who are members of the Alliance’s Research Club. The research utilizes an online panel of evangelicals (‘an opportunity sample of self-selecting volunteers’), which is possibly unrepresentative of evangelical churchgoers as a whole. For this latest study, conducted in August 2012, 1,242 panel members participated. The summary of the findings, 21st Century Evangelicals: A Snapshot of the Beliefs and Habits of Evangelical Christians in the UK, Winter 2012 – Confidently Sharing the Gospel? is available at:

http://www.eauk.org/church/resources/snapshot/upload/Confidently-sharing-the-gospel-final-report.pdf

The research demonstrates that evangelicals come to faith at an early stage of their life – 72% before they are 20 years old (28% by the age of 11 and 44% in their teens). Girls (32%) are more likely than boys (24%) to commit to Christ by the time they are 11. Growing up in a Christian family or church environment (54%) and the influence of Christian friends who shared their faith (43%) are the most common routes to faith, with nine other factors scoring between 6% and 37%. Evangelicals are very solid in their convictions, 97% agreeing that Jesus is the only way to God, and 94% that everyone needs to be born again to become a Christian and be saved.

Notwithstanding, evangelicals do not necessarily embrace practical evangelism. They often stay within their religious comfort zone, 74% saying that all or most of their family or household members are Christians and 51% the same about their circle of friends; 43% accept that they do not come into contact with many non-Christians. Many (39%) lack the motivation to share their faith, 48% feel too scared to do so, and 60% acknowledge that they have missed an opportunity to speak to others about God during the past four months. These are acknowledged to be generic weaknesses, 87% recognizing that most Christians want the confidence to give testimony to their faith, and 76% that Christians do not pray enough for revival.

Of course, there are barriers on the other side, too, with 74% declaring that none of their non-Christian contacts seem interested in talking about spiritual things. The major hindrances to the advancement of faith among non-Christians are perceived by evangelicals to be: secular alternatives to Sunday worship (89%), the Church’s unattractive public image (87%), the Church’s middle class ethos (73%), an aversion to joining any kind of organization (68%), the Church’s narrow views on sex (62%), the inability of Christians to give meaningful answers to the problem of suffering (61%), popular knowledge of science (59%), and the attacks of atheists such as Richard Dawkins (51%).

Singing the gospel

Knowledge of the lyrics of traditional Christmas carols improves with age, according to a survey of 1,000 adult Britons commissioned by the online casino RoxyPalace. Whereas nobody aged 18-27 and only one-eighth of all under-37s feel they can ‘confidently sing’ every word to a well-known carol, four-fifths of pensioners aged 68-77 can accurately manage the task. Overall, more than one in ten is forced to mime or hum along to carols. Others simply invent the words they do not know, or substitute those which best seem to fit, such as ‘the cattle are mooing’ in Away in a Manger. The fullest report of this light-hearted seasonal research which has appeared to date can be found in the Daily Telegraph for 20 December 2012 at:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/topics/christmas/9757111/Oh-come-all-ye-faithful-learn-the-words-to-traditional-carols.html

Christmas cards without Christ

A mystery shopping survey carried out by Nielsen on behalf of the Bible Society on 3-7 December 2012 found that only 66 or 1.2% of 5,706 single and multipack Christmas card designs on sale in twelve shops in the Birmingham area (including branches of Tesco, Sainsbury, Asda, and Morrison) depicted the nativity, with the total only rising to 2% even when all other religious designs were added in. Commenting on the results, Ann Holt from the Bible Society feared that ‘this means the nativity story will gradually slip from our consciousness’. The Society’s press release of 20 December is at:

http://www.biblesociety.org.uk/news/survey-finds-just-over-1-per-cent-christmas-card-designs-in-shops-feature-scenes-from-the-nativity/

Meanwhile, the Society has now made available online the full data tables from the nativity awareness survey undertaken by ICM Research on 6-10 December 2012, which we covered in our post of 17 December. The tables can be found at:

http://www.biblesociety.org.uk/uploads/content/news/files/Nativity_survey_data_tables.pdf

BRIN developments

BRIN has now opened a Twitter account: Brit Rel in Numbers @BritRelNumbers. A plugin has also been added to the BRIN website so that all new posts on the BRIN news pages will automatically broadcast a tweet to alert our followers on Twitter to fresh content. You can follow us at:

https://twitter.com/BritRelNumbers

The annual update of the BRIN sources database has just taken place. Methodological and bibliographical details of 115 new sources have been added, 84 from 2012 and 31 from previous years. This brings the total of sources described in the database to 2,115, the earliest from 1603. Revisions have also been made to 31 existing entries, typically to incorporate new bibliographical references, while corrections have been made to the sample size count field (which is not visible to end users) for many sources keyed in 2010 in order to improve the accuracy of advanced searching by sample size, especially for large datasets. There are naturally many other search options available, so do try the database out for yourself, at:

http://www.brin.ac.uk/sources/

It is guaranteed to cost you less than shopping online on Christmas Day or Boxing Day!

Posted in News from religious organisations, Official data, Religion and Politics, Religion in the Press, Religious Census, Survey news | Tagged Andrew Brown, Bible Society, Brian Grim, census of population, Christmas cards, Christmas carols, Church Times, Conrad Hackett, Daily Telegraph, Evangelical Alliance, evangelicals, evangelism, Global Religious Landscape, ICM Research, Lord Ashcroft, membership of religious groups, Michael Ashcroft, nativity knowledge, Nielsen, Office for National Statistics, Pew Research Center, Pew-Templeton Global Religious Futures Project, Religious Affiliation, religious festivals, RoxyPalace, The Guardian, Twitter, Wales, Welsh Government | 2 Comments

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