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Exploring Religious Data in the British Social Attitudes 2014 Survey

Posted on October 15, 2015 by Ben Clements

The latest British Social Attitudes 2014 survey has recently been released via the UKDS, which holds all of the other surveys in the BSA series (as well as the data having being added to the online British Social Attitudes Information System). This post explores religious data available in the 2014 survey.

Religious Belonging

The BSA has asked a question on (current) religious affiliation in every survey conducted since 1983. The figures from the 2014 survey are similar to those obtained in recent years. Around half said they had no affiliation (49%), while those with an affiliation divided into Anglicans (18%), Catholics (8%), other Christian (17%: consisting of 5% with a specific affiliation and 12% with no denominational affiliation), and those belonging to some other religion (8%).

The full set of data on religious affiliation, covering 1983 onwards, is shown in Figure 1, visualised in an area chart which displays the proportion within each of the five categories across time. Noticeable are the clear decline in the proportion affiliating as Anglican (40% in 1983); the growth in the proportion identifying with some other religion (3% in 1983); and the steady increase in those with professing no affiliation – often labelled ‘religious nones’ (32% in 1983). The proportion self-identifying as Catholic was 10% in 1983.

Not shown on the chart but also an important aspect of change in religious belonging is the shift within the other Christian category: those who identify as such but without any specific denominational tradition have become a greater share of this group over time, with a decreasing proportion professing a clear denominational association – in particular, with the Nonconformist churches. The proportion identifying as Christian with no specific denominational allegiance was just 3% in 1983 while those with a denominational allegiance comprised 14%. The proportion in the other Christian category has remained static over time, but there has been considerable change within. Whereas in 1983 self-identification as Anglican was more than twice the level found for other Christian (excluding Catholics), in 2014 the levels are almost identical.

Figure 1: Religious Affiliation in Britain, 1983-2014

Source: BSA surveys.

The BSA surveys have since 1991 asked about the religion (if any) that a respondent was brought up in. In 2014, 30% of respondents said they had been raised as Church of England/Anglican, 15% as Roman Catholic, 27% were raised in some other Christian tradition, with 9% brought up in some other religious faith. Nearly a fifth said they were not raised within a religious faith (19%). Back in 1991, when the question was first asked, the proportions were somewhat different. Well over half (57%) reported being raised as Church of England/Anglican, 14% as Roman Catholic, over a fifth within some other Christian tradition (22%), and 3% within a non-Christian faith. Just 6% said they were not brought up within a religious faith – a figure which has therefore tripled over recent decades. The proportion saying they were raised as Anglican / Church of England has therefore nearly halved over this period.

Religious Behaviour

The BSA surveys have also asked questions on religious behaviour, including on a regular basis about religious attendance and – in 2004 and 2014 – about membership of religious organisations and churches. Data on attendance and membership broken down by affiliation are shown, respectively, in Tables 1 and 2. Church attendance is divided into three categories: frequently (once a month or more often); infrequently (less often than once a month); never attends.

Table 1 shows that, across the categories, regular attendance is least common amongst Anglicans (18%) and much more common amongst Catholics (40%), other Christians (34%), and particularly those belonging to other religions (62%). Data from the 1983 survey show that, similarly, Anglicans were least likely to report being regular-attenders (18%), compared to other Christians (47%) and Catholics (55%). Infrequent attendance is most prevalent amongst Anglicans and they are also most likely to say they never attend services (beyond special occasions). Those belonging to other religions are least likely to report that they never attend services – less than a fifth. Splitting the other Christian category into those with and without a specific denominational affiliation, the latter group have reported higher levels of regular attendance. In 1983, 52% of those with a denomination affiliation said they attended frequently compared to 22% of those with no denomination. Three decades later, this difference is still evident: 48% of those with a denominational affiliation say they attend church regularly compared to 29% of those with no denominational allegiance.

Table 1: Attendance at religious services, by religious affiliation

	Anglican (%)	Catholic (%)	Other Christian (%)	Other religion (%)
Frequently	18	40	34	62
Infrequently	30	26	26	21
Never	52	34	40	17

Source: BSA 2014 survey.

Question wording: ‘Apart from such special occasions as weddings, funerals and baptisms, how often nowadays do you attend services or meetings connected with your religion?’

Overall, the proportions belonging (actively or otherwise) to a religious organisation or church fell somewhat over the decades, from 35% to 26%. Those who used to belong comprised 24% and 25% in, respectively, 2004 and 2014. The proportion saying they had never belonged to such a group rose from just over two-fifths to nearly half.

Table 2 reports data based on affiliation from the 2014 survey. Anglicans are least likely to say that they are active within a group (29%), with active participation most evident amongst Catholics (32%). Catholics are also most likely to say that they are inactive members of a group. Overall, around two-thirds of Catholics belong to a group, compared to two-fifths of Anglicans, and around half of other Christians and those from some other religion. Anglicans and those from other religions are most likely to say they have never belonged to a church or religious organisation. Dividing the other Christian category into those with and without a denominational affiliation again shows a clear difference in levels of involvement. Of those with some form of denominational affiliation, around two-third either actively or passively belong to a church or religious organisation, considerably higher than the two-fifths of non-denominational Christians who say they do so.

Table 2: Belongs to a religious organisation or church, by religious affiliation

	Anglican (%)	Catholic (%)	Other Christian (%)	Other religion (%)
Belong, actively participate	19	32	27	26
Belong, don’t actively participate	20	34	21	22
BELONG	39	66	48	48
Used to belong	24	21	31	15
Never belonged	36	13	21	37

Source: BSA 2014 survey.

Question wording:

‘About belonging to different kinds of groups or associations. Do you belong and actively participate; belong but don’t actively participate; used to belong but do not any more; or have never belonged to – a church or other religious organisation?’

Social Attitudes

The BSA surveys also ask a range of question probing social and political attitudes, which can be examined on the basis of religious belonging or behaviour. Two such examples are used here: same-sex equality and tolerance for religious extremists.

In overall terms, opinion in favour of marriage equality for same-sex couples has increased markedly over time: from 13% in 1989 to 49% in 2007, and settling at around three-fifths in more recent surveys. Table 3 reports the proportions agreeing that gays and lesbians should have the right to marry, based on religious affiliation. The proportions agreeing with the statement have risen considerably over time. Even so, on each occasion, those with no affiliation are most likely to agree with same-sex marriage (increasing from 20% in 1989 to 74% in 2014). While very small proportions of Anglicans, Catholics and other Christians agreed in in 1989, about a half did so in 2014. The proportions in agreement amongst those from non-Christian religions are clearly lower (33% in 2014), although it should be noted that they obviously represent small proportions of the BSA survey samples.

Table 3: Percent agreeing that gays and lesbians should have the right to marry, by religious affiliation

	1989 (%)	2007 (%)	2012 (%)	2013 (%)	2014 (%)
Anglican	10	32	43	46	49
Catholic	14	57	48	56	53
Other Christian	6	40	49	44	52
Other religion	–	33	36	23	33
No religion	20	60	70	69	74

Source: BSA surveys. Combines ‘strongly agree’ and ‘agree’.

Question wordings:

1989: ‘Do you agree or disagree that … Homosexual couples should have the right to marry one another.’

2007-2014: ‘How much do you agree or disagree that … gay or lesbian couples should have the right to marry one another if they want to.’

Finally, Table 4 reports attitudes towards a question asking about religious extremists being allowed to hold public meetings asked in the 2004 and 2014 surveys. In overall terms, attitudes on this question have hardened over time: in 2014, the proportion thinking religious extremists should (definitely or probably) be allowed to hold public meetings is 23%, lower than the 33% expressing the same view in 2004. The same is also the case for each group based on religious affiliation. In general, around a fifth to a quarter think they should be allowed in 2014, with large majorities against – highest at 78% of Anglicans. In 2004, the proportions in favour were in the range of 29-40%, with smaller – but still clear – majorities opposed (with the exception of other Christians, at 49%).

Table 4: Attitudes towards religious extremists being allowed to hold public meetings, by religious affiliation

	Anglican (%)	Catholic (%)	Other Christian (%)	Other religion (%)	No religion (%)
2014
Should definitely or probably be allowed	19	21	20	22	25
Should probably or definitely not be allowed	78	70	73	70	69
Don’t know	3	9	7	9	6
2004
Should definitely or probably be allowed	33	29	40	33	31
Should probably or definitely not be allowed	61	65	49	67	63
Don’t know	6	6	11	0	6

Source: BSA surveys.

Question wording: ‘There are a number of groups in society. Should religious extremists be allowed to hold public meetings?’.

BRIN readers might be interested in earlier posts which used BSA survey data to look in more detail at affiliation and attendance – both levels of change overall and variation across social groups:

http://www.brin.ac.uk/news/2015/socio-demographic-groups-and-religious-affiliation-in-britain/

http://www.brin.ac.uk/news/2014/changes-in-attendance-at-religious-services-in-britain/

Posted in Research note, Survey news, Uncategorized, visualisation | Tagged British Social Attitudes, British Social Attitudes Surveys, British society, Christianity, Christians, church attendance, Church of England, gay rights, group membership, Non-Denominational Christians, Religious Affiliation, religious attendance, religious belonging, religious extremism, Roman Catholics, same-sex marriage, social attitudes, Survey Data | 1 Comment

Muslim Stories and Other News

Posted on October 11, 2015 by Clive D. Field

Yearbook of Muslims in Europe

One important international reference work which BRIN has hitherto failed to mention in our regular round-ups of British religious statistical news is Yearbook of Muslims in Europe (ISSN 1877-1432), published by Brill since 2009 with Jørgen Nielsen as editor-in-chief. The core component of each volume is a country-by-country survey of the situation of Muslims throughout Europe, defined in its broadest sense. The most recent edition (Vol. 6), published towards the end of 2014 and reviewing developments in 2013, covers 45 countries. There is a chapter on the UK by Dilwar Hussain (pp. 625-48) which briefly mentions the results of the 2011 official census of religious affiliation (p. 625) and of opinion polls among and about Muslims (pp. 646-7). The first three volumes also included research articles and book reviews, but these have now migrated to Brill’s Journal of Muslims in Europe. Unfortunately, doubtless reflecting its high cost, there are relatively few UK holding libraries for the Yearbook of Muslims in Europe. Anybody interested in finding locations should consult the online catalogue COPAC for details.

Regulating supplementary religious schools

Prime Minister David Cameron’s commitment, made in his recent speech to the Conservative Party conference, to regulate supplementary religious schools (such as Islamic madrassas) seems to have gone down well with most of the electorate, according to a Survation poll for the Huffington Post UK. The Government intends to consult on making these institutions in England register with the Department for Education and become subject to a light-touch inspection regime, closure being the promised fate of those found to be teaching intolerance. In the poll, conducted online on 7 October 2015 among 1,031 adult Britons, 62% endorsed Cameron’s plans, including 70% of over-55s and 77% of Conservative voters, while 13% were opposed and 24% undecided. Data tables were published on 8 October at:

http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/Cameron-Speech-Poll-Tables.pdf

Muslims in the labour market

British Muslims are proportionately less well represented in top managerial and professional jobs than any other religious group. They are also disproportionately likely to be unemployed and economically inactive, and to have the lowest female employment participation rate of all religious groups. So claim Louis Reynolds and Jonathan Birdwell in their Rising to the Top, a new research report from think-tank Demos, based upon a review of the academic literature and secondary analysis of data from the census, Labour Force Survey, Higher Education Statistics Agency, Universities and Colleges Admissions Service, and other sources. Demographic, cultural, and other factors contributing to Muslim under-representation are explored, and a series of recommendations made to help redress it. Although the official launch of the report is not until 21 October 2015, the text is already available online at:

http://www.demos.co.uk/project/rising-to-the-top/

Travel to Islamic countries

A ‘summer of discontent’ has transformed the travel plans of Britons, according to a press release from travel deals company Travelzoo on 1 October 2015 and based on a survey among 2,000 UK adults by Censuswide in September 2015. The Islamist terrorist attack on British tourists in Tunisia, the migrant crisis, and the disruption at the Channel Tunnel/Eurostar are causing us to rethink where to holiday in future. Over half (54%) of respondents admitted that the events in Tunisia had put them off holidaying anywhere abroad, while 75% said that they would actively avoid all Islamic countries as destinations in future. Less than 1% would be prepared to visit Tunisia, even if the Government travel ban is lifted in the next few months. The press release is at:

http://press.travelzoo.com/summer-of-discontent-has-transformed-britains-travel-habits

Islamic State (1)

A trio of online polls of adult Britons by YouGov on behalf of YouGov@Cambridge, and published on 2 October 2015, has explored public attitudes to British involvement in military action against Islamic State (IS) in three Middle Eastern countries. Fieldwork was conducted on 4-5 August in the case of Iraq (n = 1,707), 5-6 August about Libya (n = 1,972), and 24-25 September about Syria (n = 1,646). A few topline results are tabulated below, with the full data tables available under ‘Latest Documents’ on the YouGov@Cambridge website at:

https://yougov.co.uk/cambridge/

Approval (%) of these British actions against IS	In Iraq	In Libya	In Syria
Air strikes by RAF planes	57	53	59
Air strikes by aerial drones	60	56	66
Missile strikes from Royal Navy ships	52	48	56
Sending heavy weapons to local forces	41	36	39
Sending small arms to local forces	42	37	42
Sending regular UK troops	29	28	30
Sending UK special forces to fight	50	45	51
Sending UK special forces to rescue hostages	67	58	67
Sending UK military advisers to local forces	62	55	57

It will be seen that there is marginally more public appetite to engage IS in Iraq and Syria than in Libya, and that past reservations about involvement in Syria have weakened. British air strikes against IS, whether by plane or drone, find majority support in all three theatres of conflict, but there is some reticence about supplying military hardware to local armies to help them fight IS. The deployment of British ground troops appeals to under one-third, but there are fewer concerns about committing special forces in an offensive or hostage-rescue context.

Islamic State (2)

Notwithstanding serious tensions between Russia and the West elsewhere in the world, 59% of Britons would approve of Anglo-American co-operation with Russian military forces in the fight against IS, support peaking among men (72%) and UKIP voters (75%). This is according to a YouGov poll published on 1 October 2015 for which 2,064 adults were interviewed online on 29-30 September, presumably mostly before news broke of the start of Russian air strikes against IS in Syria. Significantly fewer (38%) are willing for Britain and the USA to work with President Bashar al-Assad of Syria against IS, with disapproval running close on 32% and as many as 30% undecided. Endorsement of RAF participation in air strikes against IS in Syria has risen to 60%, three points more than at the beginning of July, with only 20% opposed. However, the potential deployment of ground troops against IS in Iraq continues to divide public opinion, with two-fifths in favour and the same proportion dissenting. YouGov’s own analysis of the survey, with a link to the data tables, is at:

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2015/10/01/cooperation-russia-syria/

Sociology of prayer

Two of the eleven research chapters in A Sociology of Prayer, edited by Giuseppe Giordan and Linda Woodhead (Farnham: Ashgate, 2015, xiv + 239pp., ISBN 9781409455851, paperback, £19.99) offer quantitative and qualitative content analyses of prayer requests in the British context. Tania ap Siôn, ‘Prayer Requests in an English Cathedral and a New Analytic Framework for Intercessory Prayer’ (pp. 169-89) reports on 1,658 prayer requests left at the shrine of St Chad in Lichfield Cathedral in 2010. Peter Collins, ‘An Analysis of Hospital Chapel Prayer Requests’ (pp. 191-211) considers 3,243 requests from chapels in two Middlesbrough acute hospitals over the period 1995-2006. More details about the volume, including ‘look inside’ previews, available at:

http://www.ashgate.com/isbn/9781409455851

Congregational bonding social capital

A seven-item measure of congregational expressions of Robert Putnam’s theory of bonding social capital is proposed and empirically tested (on 23,884 adult churchgoers in the Church of England Diocese of Southwark) in Leslie Francis and David Lankshear, ‘Introducing the Congregational Bonding Social Capital Scale: A Study among Anglican Churchgoers in South London’, Journal of Beliefs & Values, Vol. 36, No. 2, 2015, pp. 224-30. The research data support the internal consistency reliability and construct validity of the scale. No significant differences in congregational bonding social capital were found between the sexes, but levels did increase with age and frequency of church attendance. Previous attempts to develop measures of congregational bonding social capital are also briefly reviewed. Access options to the article are outlined at:

http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/13617672.2015.1041786

Pastoral Research Centre publications

On 2 October 2015 the Pastoral Research Centre Trust, which undertakes socio-religious research into Roman Catholicism in England and Wales with particular reference to statistical sources, posted on its website an up-to-date list of its own reports and those of its predecessor, the Newman Demographic Survey (1953-64), the latter documents only declassified by the Catholic Church in recent years. These publications provide a much sounder basis for the quantification of the Catholic community during the past half-century than the data to be found in successive editions of the Catholic Directory. The list can be found on the Trust’s homepage at:

http://www.prct.org.uk/

Education and secularization

In our post of 12 June 2015, we highlighted an article by James Lewis in Journal of Contemporary Religion in which, utilizing census data from Anglophone countries, he reasserted the thesis that higher education appears to have a secularizing effect. That article has now elicited a response from David Voas: ‘The Normalization of Non-Religion: A Reply to James Lewis’, Journal of Contemporary Religion, Vol. 30, No. 3, 2015, pp. 505-8. In it Voas reiterates his own previous argument, that religious ‘nones’ are becoming normalized in their characteristics. He suggests that the approach adopted by Lewis, a cross-sectional snapshot of the whole population undifferentiated by age together with an over-dependence on write-in replies which are the census exception rather than the rule, misses the generational dynamics of religious change. His own analysis of the 2011 census for England and Wales, one of the sources drawn upon by Lewis, demonstrates that, whereas older ‘nones’ are more educated than Christians of the same age, younger ‘nones’ have fewer qualifications than their Christian counterparts. Access options to the Voas article are outlined at:

http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/13537903.2015.1081354

Scottish Gaelic and religion

On 30 September 2015 the Scottish Government published a report and data tables relating to the results of the Scottish Gaelic questions in the 2011 Scottish census. Five data tables give breaks by religion for Scottish Gaelic for the population aged 3 and over. They are:

AT 250 2011 – Gaelic language skills by religion (council areas)
AT 251 2011 – Gaelic language skills by religion (civil parish bands)
AT 275 2011 – Use of Gaelic language at home by religion (council areas)
AT 276 2011 – Use of Gaelic language at home by religion (civil parish bands)
AT 277 2011 – Gaelic language skills by religion by age (Scotland)

These tables can be accessed, in Excel format, under the ‘language’ heading of the 2011 Scottish Census Data Warehouse at:

http://www.scotlandscensus.gov.uk/ods-web/data-warehouse.html#additionaltab

The national-level picture by religion from AT 250 2011 is summarized in the table below. It will be seen that relatively few Scots, just 57,600, now speak Gaelic and that those who do are disproportionately from Protestant denominations other than the Church of Scotland (although they equate to only one in seven Gaelic speakers in Scotland, two-fifths of whom affiliate to the Church of Scotland).

% across	Speaks Gaelic	Does not speak Gaelic
Total	1.13	98.87
Roman Catholic	1.02	98.98
Church of Scotland	1.36	98.64
Other Christian	2.94	97.06
Other religion	0.98	99.02
No religion	0.69	99.31
Religion not stated	1.09	98.91

Jewish grandparents

In anticipation of the Jewish festival of Sukkot and UK Grandparents Day (4 October 2015), World Jewish Relief recently commissioned Survation to conduct a telephone poll of self-identifying Jews in Great Britain about grandparents and grandchildren. Unsurprisingly, Jewish grandparents overwhelmingly said they would like to see more of their grandchildren, 92% ideally at least fortnightly, although in practice fewer (70%) saw them that frequently, while nearly one in five saw them less than a few times each year. One-third of Jewish grandchildren aged 18 and over also reported seeing their grandparents a few times a year or less. The principal information about the survey currently in the public domain is a press release dated 1 October 2015 from World Jewish Relief at:

https://www.worldjewishrelief.org/news/sukkot-offers-grandchildren-chance-to-reunite-with-grandparents/

Posted in church attendance, News from religious organisations, Religion and Politics, Religion and Social Capital, Religious Census, Religious prejudice, Survey news | Tagged bonding social capital, census of population, Censuswide, Church of England, David Cameron, David Lankshear, David Voas, Demos, Diocese of Southwark, foreign travel, grandchildren, grandparents, Huffington Post UK, Iraq, ISIS, Islamic countries, Islamic State, James Lewis, Jews, Jonathan Birdwell, Jorgen Nielsen, Journal of Beliefs and Values, Journal of Contemporary Religion, labour market, Leslie Francis, Libya, Louis Reynolds, madrassas, Muslims, Newman Demographic Survey, Pastoral Research Centre, Peter Collins, prayer, Religious Affiliation, religious nones, Roman Catholic Church, Scotland, Scottish Gaelic, supplementary religious schools, Survation, Syria, Tania ap Sion, Travelzoo, Tunisia, World Jewish Relief, Yearbook of Muslims in Europe, YouGov, YouGov@Cambridge | Leave a comment

Sunday Trading and Other News

Posted on September 28, 2015 by Clive D. Field

Sunday trading

The Government has recently run a public consultation on its proposals for further deregulation of Sunday shop trading hours in England and Wales, involving devolution to local authorities of decisions to extend hours for large stores beyond the six to which they are currently limited. The Association of Convenience Stores (ACS) has been in the vanguard of opposing the changes and has commissioned several pieces of research in support of its position. These are conveniently gathered together, with its own response to the consultation, at:

http://www.acs.org.uk/download/devolving-sunday-trading-rules/

A poll by Populus for ACS, undertaken online among 1,864 adults in England and Wales on 2-3 September 2015, revealed that a majority (58%) of the public still thinks that Sunday is different from the rest of the week, 61% because it is a shared time with family and friends, and 58% because it is a day of relaxation. Two-thirds (67%) supported the current legislation permitting large stores to open up to six hours on Sundays while 23% opposed it, presumably because they thought it was either too strict or too liberal. Three-fifths agreed that the existing laws provide sufficient opportunities to shop on Sundays (with just 12% dissenting) and a similar proportion felt that, if the laws were relaxed, shop staff would be forced to work longer and their family life would suffer. At the same time, 25% agreed that the present legislation is not convenient for people like themselves and a plurality of 42% that it constrains customers’ choice when they can go shopping. Sunday trading is one of those topics where the outcome of surveys can be radically different dependent upon the question-wording and context.

An online survey by Research Insight for ACS of 70 local authority chief executives in England and Wales between 6 August and 4 September 2015 found that 64% were likely to support deregulation in some form in their own local authority, typically in an out-of-town location. However, 64% were concerned that having different Sunday trading regulations within their local authority would cause confusion for consumers and 69% that it would displace trade from some zones to others.

A report from Oxford Economics for ACS on the Economic Impact of Deregulating Sunday Trading challenged the Government’s assumption that further liberalization of Sunday trading would boost local and regional economies. Oxford Economics, by contrast, forecasts that extending Sunday opening hours by devolution of powers to local authorities is likely to result in displacement of spending, from small stores to large ones, triggering 8,800 job losses in the former, which would not be fully compensated for by job gains in the latter. The report is informed by modelling the impact of the 1994 deregulation of Sunday trading hours and of the temporary liberalization permitted for the 2012 London Olympic Games.

Meanwhile, the Union of Shop, Distributive, and Allied Workers (USDAW), the UK’s fourth largest trade union, issued a press release on 22 September 2015 in response to the recent Government consultation. USDAW reported that its survey of over 10,000 shopworkers had revealed that 91% of retail staff in large stores are opposed to longer opening hours on Sunday, primarily because of the potential detrimental effect on their family life. The press release is available at:

http://www.usdaw.org.uk/About-Us/News/2015/September/Shopworkers-in-large-stores-overwhelmingly-reject

Extra-terrestrial life

Majorities of adults in Britain (52%), Germany (56%), and the United States (54%) believe in the existence of extra-terrestrial intelligent life. This is according to a YouGov poll published on 24 September 2015, for which 1,751 Britons were interviewed online on 13-14 September. In Britain belief in such life was highest among men (61%) and under-25s and residents of Scotland (59% each), and lowest with women (44%) and over-60s (45%). Believers mostly attributed the lack of hard evidence for the existence of extra-terrestrial intelligent life to its distance from earth and the inadequacy of communications technology. Disbelievers numbered 28% (peaking at one-third of women and over-60s), more than half of whom claimed that the earth is unique and the only place capable of sustaining intelligent life, although almost one in five cited as their reason for disbelief that humans were created by God or another higher being. A plurality of the whole sample (46%) favoured a digital message being sent by scientists in an attempt to contact extra-terrestrial intelligent life, one-third did not, and one-fifth were uncertain. Full data tables can be accessed via the blog post at:

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2015/09/24/you-are-not-alone-most-people-believe-aliens-exist/

Talking Jesus

Further to our post of 22 September 2015, ComRes has now published the detailed data tables for its online research, on behalf of Barna Group, on perceptions of Jesus, Christians, and evangelism among samples of all adults and practising Christians in England. See:

http://comres.co.uk/polls/barna-group-perceptions-of-jesus-survey/

Evangelicals

On 22 September 2015 the UK Data Archive (UKDA) released as SN 7786 the dataset for ‘Twenty-First Century Evangelicals, 2010-2015’. This comprises documentation and data for thematic and omnibus online surveys conducted by the Evangelical Alliance among self-selecting samples of UK evangelicals during the past five years, and which have been regularly reported on by BRIN. Access to the data is by application from registered UKDA users, under a special licence, but reports, questionnaires, and certain other material are freely available to download via:

http://discover.ukdataservice.ac.uk/catalogue/?sn=7786&type=Data%20catalogue

Religion and sex

Two days later, on 24 September 2015, UKDA released as SN 7799 the dataset for the ‘National Survey of Sexual Attitudes and Lifestyles, 2010-2012’ (NATSAL III). This was conducted, through a combination of face-to-face interview and self-completion questionnaire, by NatCen Social Research between September 2010 and August 2012 among a sample of 15,162 adults aged 16-74 in Britain (including two booster samples of younger cohorts). The response rate was 58%. Three background questions on religion enable religious attitudes to a wide range of sexual issues to be explored, especially contraception, homosexuality, and sexual experiences. These questions enquired into: the personal importance of religion and religious beliefs; religious affiliation (using a ‘belonging’ form of wording); and frequency of attendance at religious services. The UKDA catalogue description, with links to the codebook and technical report, is at:

http://discover.ukdataservice.ac.uk/catalogue/?sn=7799&type=Data%20catalogue

General Synod candidates

Elections for the 2015 General Synod of the Church of England have just begun. Of the 851 people standing for the 406 seats in the Houses of Clergy and Laity, 34% are women. The proportion of female candidates for the House of Clergy is, at 28%, fairly close to the representation of women in the Church’s licensed ministry as a whole (32%). However, the number of women standing for election to the House of Laity is 20% fewer than the female share of Anglican congregations, as recorded in the Everyone Counts, 2014 diversity audit, 39% and 59% respectively.

Mosque statistics

Mehmood Naqshbandi published the latest snapshot of UK Mosque Statistics on 23 September 2015. This revealed a total of 1,834 active mosques and prayer rooms, about one-quarter of which are registered charities. Actual mosques number 1,695, a net increase of 3% over the 2014 figure. The overwhelming majority of these premises (94%) are located in England, six with a capacity of over 5,000 (two each in Bradford, Birmingham, and London). There is a wide range of mosque affiliations, with the commonest being Deobandi (43%) and Bareilvi (25%). Seven in ten mosques overall have facilities for women, albeit there is a variation by affiliation from 50% to 100%. Data have been abstracted from the website MuslimsInBritain.org, which is now attracting over 150,000 unique visitors each month, following major changes to make it friendlier for mobile devices. UK Mosque Statistics can be found at:

http://www.muslimsinbritain.org/resources/masjid_report.pdf

Jewish statistics

A potted history of the now defunct Statistical and Demographic Research Unit of the Board of Deputies of British Jews appears in Geoffrey Alderman, ‘Not Lies but Damned Statistics’, Jewish Chronicle, 25 September 2015, p. 41. The Unit was established in 1965 following revelations of serious Jewish data gaps at a two-day conference on ‘Jewish Life in Modern Britain’ in 1962. ‘There is hardly a single figure that can be quoted with any firmness for the Jewish community of Great Britain today’, one of the speakers had declared gloomily. Initially directed by the late Professor Sigbert Prais as honorary consultant and with Marlena Schmool as research officer, the Unit instituted annual returns of Jewish marriages and deaths and quinquennial surveys of synagogue membership and became involved in several local studies of Jewish populations. Regrettably, according to Alderman, it was ‘undervalued and generally unloved by the community it served’, not least when, during Barry Kosmin’s tenure as the Unit’s executive director in the 1980s, it downwardly revised estimates of the size of that community. This triggered the intervention of ‘communal politics of a particularly nasty variety’. Alderman’s article can be read at:

http://www.thejc.com/comment-and-debate/columnists/145738/not-lies-damned-statistics

Posted in Historical studies, News from religious organisations, Religion and Politics, Religious beliefs, Survey news | Tagged Association of Convenience Stores, Barna Group, Church of England, ComRes, Evangelical Alliance, evangelicals, extra-terrestrial intelligent life, General Synod, Geoffrey Alderman, Jewish Chronicle, Mehmood Naqshbandi, mosques, NatCen Social Research, National Survey of Sexual Attitudes and Lifestyles, Oxford Economics, Populus, Statistical and Demographic Research Unit of the Board of Deputies of British Jews, Sunday trading, Talking Jesus, Union of Shop Distributive and Allied Workers, United Kingdom Data Archive, USDAW, YouGov | Leave a comment

Talking Jesus and Other News

Posted on September 22, 2015 by Clive D. Field

Talking Jesus

Newly-published research from the Barna Group on behalf of the Church of England, Evangelical Alliance, and HOPE throws light on perceptions of Jesus, Christians, and evangelism among UK and English adults. Fieldwork was conducted by ComRes on 12-29 July 2015 among a representative sample of 3,014 UK adults aged 18 and over (including 2,545 in England) plus a booster sample of 1,621 practising Christians (1,592 in England). The UK cross-section comprised 58% self-identified Christians and 42% who were not (one-half of whom were atheists or agnostics). Under one in six of the Christians (10%) were practising, as defined by praying, reading the Bible, and attending church services at least monthly. Copies of the questionnaire (for the cross-section), executive summary of the main report (for England), a booklet Talking Jesus: Perceptions of Jesus, Christians, and Evangelism in England, and presentations of results both for the UK and England are available to download at:

http://www.talkingjesus.org/research/downloads.cfm

Three-fifths (61%) of UK adults thought Jesus was a real person who actually lived. The proportion fell to 57% of under-35s and non-practising Christians and rose to 79% of ethnic minority respondents. A further 22% of the entire sample considered Him a mythical or fictional character, and 17% were undecided. The number believing Jesus was God in human form who lived in the first century was much lower (22%), the alternative propositions that He was a prophet or spiritual leader but not God or that He was a normal human being and not God being subscribed to by 29% and 17% respectively. Two-fifths believed in Christ’s resurrection from the dead, 17% in a literal sense as related in the Bible (including 52% of black adults) and 26% more figuratively, while 14% explicitly rejected the resurrection, the remainder being uncertain or denying that Jesus was real. The commonest words used to describe Jesus were: for all adults – spiritual (49%), loving (48%), and peaceful (47%); and for practising Christians – loving (93%), wise (88%), and inspirational (88%).

Two-thirds (67%) of UK non-Christians said that they knew a practising Christian, three-quarters of them as a family member (35%) or friend (38%). Among non-Christians knowing Christians, 64% rated the latter as friendly, 52% as caring, 46% as good humoured, and 39% as generous, but some more negative qualities of Christians were also identified, including narrow-minded (13%), hypocritical (10%), uptight (7%), and homophobic (7%). Some two-fifths (38%) of non-Christians claimed to have had a conversation with a Christian about Jesus, but only about one-fifth of them reacted positively to the experience, 60% being uninterested in knowing more about Christ. For their part, the overwhelming majority of practising Christians (85%) felt a responsibility to talk to non-Christians about Jesus, 52% saying that they were always looking for opportunities to do so, and 66% that they had done so within the past month. However, only 19% of non-practising Christians regarded evangelism as their responsibility, and 40% did not feel comfortable talking to non-Christians about Jesus.

The survey also explored the personal faith journey of practising Christians. Nearly all (93%) said that they had been a Christian for 11 years or more. Just 15% reported one sudden decision to becoming a Christian (akin to conversion), while 18% recalled several key decisions, 23% described a journey over time, and 42% attributed their faith to growing up in a Christian family. Besides nurture in a Christian home other positive influences on their faith included attending church services (29%), reading the Bible (28%), and conversations with a Christian they knew well (27%). Non-practising Christians were much more likely to highlight the importance of growing up in a Christian family (72%) as the principal factor in their faith journey.

Transforming Scotland

In our post of 6 September 2015, we flagged up another recent publication by the Barna Group: Transforming Scotland: The State of Christianity, Faith, and the Church in Scotland (ISBN 978-0-9965843-0-2, £30, inclusive of postage, order via Barna’s online store). A copy of this 175-page book is now to hand, and we tabulate below a selection of findings from one of the main elements of the research, an online survey by ComRes of 1,019 Scots on 9-16 June 2014. The questionnaire is somewhat eclectic and imbalanced, shaped by the Protestant evangelical ethos which imbues Barna. The whole book is also inadequately contextualized, both historically and in terms of awareness of other contemporary sources, especially academic ones. The bibliography of secondary research is pitiful and omits any reference to the writings of Callum Brown and Steve Bruce.

% down	All	Men	Women	18-24	25-44	45-54	55+
Regular church attendance
As a child	61	59	62	45	51	70	70
As a teenager	21	23	19	4	16	20	30
As an adult	13	12	13	1	6	14	21
Never	31	33	29	54	41	24	18
Private Bible reading
Never	63	60	66	62	70	64	57
Less than once a year	17	18	16	12	15	14	22
Less than once a week	13	15	11	16	8	17	13
Weekly or more often	7	7	7	11	6	6	9
Bible literalism
Actual word of God	3	3	3	5	3	3	2
Inspired word of God	26	25	27	31	22	28	27
Not inspired by God	16	17	16	8	14	18	21
Just another book of teachings	41	45	36	42	44	39	38
Attitudes to Christianity
Favourable	55	54	56	50	47	56	63
Unfavourable	27	32	24	35	32	21	24
Importance of religious faith in personal life
Yes	29	28	29	31	23	27	33
No	61	63	58	58	64	59	60
Contemporary Scotland
Christian nation	31	36	26	25	25	32	38
Secular nation	19	21	18	22	20	20	18
Post-Christian nation	17	20	14	27	15	14	16
Nation in spiritual transition	15	17	14	14	15	15	16

Scottish Referendum Study

Preliminary analysis of the results of the second (post-vote) wave of the Scottish Referendum Study, for which 3,700 Scots aged 16 and over were interviewed online by YouGov on 22-26 September 2014, indicates that the majority of Catholics (58%) voted in favour of Scottish independence in the referendum on 18 September 2014, as did 52% of religious nones, whereas the majority of Protestants (60%) opposed it, including 81% of Anglicans. Headline data (differing slightly from those presented by the Scottish Referendum Study team six months ago) were reported by the BBC on 18 September 2015 at:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-glasgow-west-34283948

Organ donation

Within three months Wales will become the first UK home nation where there will be a legal presumption of consent to donate organs after death unless a clear objection to do so has been registered. According to a survey by ICM Unlimited, and carried out among 4,042 adults on 29-31 July and 21-23 August 2015, 62% of Britons support this new legislation in Wales and only 20% oppose it. However, opinions vary by religious profession, the extremes of endorsement apparently being from 64% of atheists or agnostics down to 34% of Muslims. A similar range of attitude was found in response to the question about extending the Welsh opt-out policy for organ donation to the rest of the UK, which was backed by 51% of all Britons but by 55% of atheists or agnostics and 28% of Muslims. No data tables are available in the public domain, the foregoing information appearing in a press release by ICM on 9 September at:

http://www.icmunlimited.com/media-centre/blog/wales-opts-in-to-organs-will-the-rest-of-the-uk-follow

Measuring religious affiliation

Clive Field’s article on ‘Measuring Religious Affiliation in Great Britain: The 2011 Census in Historical and Methodological Context’, Religion, Vol. 44, No. 3, 2014, pp. 357-82 is now freely available in PDF and HTML formats at:

http://www.tandfonline.com/toc/rrel20/44/3

Islamic State

British attitudes toward military action against Islamic State (IS) in the Middle East have hardened slightly in the past two and a half months, according to a YouGov poll for The Times on 15-16 September 2015, for which 1,649 adults were interviewed online. Approval of RAF participation in air strikes against IS in Syria is up two points, to 59% (including seven in ten Conservative and UKIP voters), while disapproval is down two points, to 19%. A plurality (40%) approves the deployment of British and American ground troops in Iraq to help combat IS, peaking at 47% of men and UKIP voters, with disapproval at 36%, down three points on July. Data tables are at:

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/0f34cl5n9e/TimesResults_150916_Corbyn_W2.pdf

A second YouGov poll, for The Sunday Times, revisited the matter of air strikes within the context of a series of questions about the emerging policies of the new Labour Party leader, Jeremy Corbyn. The sample comprised 1,601 Britons interviewed online on 17-18 September 2015. Asked whether they supported ruling out British participation in air strikes against IS, only 22% did so, with 56% opposed, disproportionately Conservative and UKIP voters (72% each), men (67%), and over-60s (64%). Even a plurality of Labour voters (40%) was opposed to their leader’s stance. Data tables are at:

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/i41vkd4xdd/SundayTimesResults_150918_Website.pdf

Posted in church attendance, News from religious organisations, Religion and Politics, Religious beliefs, Religious Census, Survey news | Tagged Barna Group, Bible, Christianity, Christians, church attendance, Church of England, Clive Field, ComRes, Evangelical Alliance, evangelism, HOPE, ICM Unlimited, importance of religious faith, Islamic State, Jesus Christ, non-Christians, organ donation, practising Christians, Religious Affiliation, Scotland, Scottish Referendum Study, Sunday Times, Syria, The Times, YouGov | Leave a comment

Scottish Religion and Other News

Posted on August 30, 2015 by Clive D. Field

Scottish religion

The continuing decline of religion in Scotland is documented in two publications from the Scottish Government this month. The first, published on 26 August 2015, is Scotland’s People Annual Report: Results from the 2014 Scottish Household Survey, based on interviews with 9,800 adults in private households in Scotland. The question on religious affiliation revealed that 47% of Scots professed to have no religion in 2014, 7% more than in 2009. There has been a corresponding reduction in affiliation to the Church of Scotland over this five-year period, from 34% to 28%. Other categories in 2014 were: Roman Catholics 14%, other Christians 8%, and non-Christians 3%. The report is available at:

http://www.gov.scot/Publications/2015/08/3720/downloads

The other publication, released on 20 August by the National Records of Scotland, was Vital Events Reference Tables, 2014, showing, inter alia, the mode of solemnization of marriage in Scotland. Results are tabulated below, with comparisons for 2004 (the year before ceremonies by humanist celebrants were permitted) and 2009. It will be seen that civil marriages now account for the majority, that the Church of Scotland has lost half its market share in the space of ten years, and that one-quarter of ‘religious’ ceremonies are now conducted by humanist celebrants. Full details are at:

http://nationalrecordsofscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/vital-events/general-publications/vital-events-reference-tables/2014/section-7-marriages-and-civil-partnerships

Form of marriage ceremony, % down	2004	2009	2014
Civil	49.5	51.7	51.6
Church of Scotland	29.6	22.3	15.5
Roman Catholic	6.1	6.5	5.3
Other religious (excluding humanist)	14.9	13.9	14.1
Humanist	0.0	5.6	13.5

Committed Christians and moral issues

Committed Christians remain more conservative on moral issues than the British public but less than might be expected, according to an analysis of YouGov Profiles data published on 27 August 2015. The sample of committed Christians (1,707 Protestants, apparently Anglicans, and 863 Catholics) comprised members of YouGov’s online panel who both identified as Protestant or Catholic and strongly agreed with the statement that ‘my faith is important to me’. As the table below indicates, so-called ‘religious Catholics’ are more likely to favour same-sex marriage than ‘religious Protestants’, whereas for the legalization of assisted dying the position is reversed, with majorities of both groups wanting to see restrictions on abortion tightened. YouGov’s blog is at:

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2015/08/27/profile-catholic-protestant-issue/

% down	Religious Catholics	Religious Protestants	British public
Same-sex marriage
Support	50	45	66
Oppose	40	47	22
Assisted dying
Support	42	59	79
Oppose	48	33	13
Abortion
More restrictions	69	56	29
No more restrictions	17	27	47

Evangelicals and British values

The September-October 2015 issue of Idea: The Magazine of the Evangelical Alliance exclusively reveals the results of the Alliance’s online polling earlier in 2015 of a self-selecting sample of 1,730 self-identifying UK evangelicals on the subject of ‘British values’, a subject of ongoing political debate. Respondents were asked about the attributes which they judged important for being truly British, with ‘to be a Christian’ ranked only seventh on 43%, albeit 19% more than for all Britons as recorded in the British Social Attitudes Survey. Top of the list for evangelicals were ‘to respect Britain’s political institutions and laws’ (96%) and ‘to be able to speak English’ (95%), much the same priorities as for the general public. Although 93% of evangelicals thought that, historically, British values have been strongly shaped by Christianity, only 31% considered they were today, with 79% agreeing that the state’s view of British values is based on secularism rather than Christianity. Notwithstanding, 71% believed the Government right in principle to try to define and promote British values. Just 18% of evangelicals regarded Britain as a Christian country. Seemingly by way of illustration, they identified many negative traits in the population at large, notably consumerism (65%), obsession with celebrity (58%), and sexual licence/promiscuity (51%). The article can be found at:

http://www.eauk.org/idea/british-values.cfm

Jews and Jeremy Corbyn

British Jews tend not to be natural Labour Party supporters (only 14% of them voted for it at this year’s general election), but two-thirds (including three-fifths of Jewish Labour voters) are apparently viewing with some apprehension the prospect that Jeremy Corbyn may be elected the next Labour leader. This is according to a telephone poll of 1,011 self-identifying Jews conducted by Survation on behalf of the Jewish Chronicle on 17-19 August 2015, the headline results of which were published in that newspaper on 21 August. More than four-fifths of Jews were concerned about reports that Corbyn had referred to Hezbollah and Hamas as his friends, and about allegations that he had donated money to an organization run by Holocaust denier Paul Eisen. Seven in ten thought that politicians such as Corbyn who described themselves as anti-Zionist were in reality often or always anti-Jewish. Full data tables, including breaks by gender, age, region, and voting, are at:

http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/Jewish-Chronicle-Poll-August-19th4.pdf

BBC Radio 4 programmes

Programmes on religion are the least listened to genre of programming on BBC Radio 4, according to a survey of 601 medium to heavy Radio 4 listeners in the UK interviewed online by ICM Unlimited on behalf of the BBC Trust between 23 February and 10 March 2015. Just 15% claimed to listen to religious programmes, the lowest proportion of the eight categories investigated, the list being headed by news programmes (88%) and current affairs programmes (87%). Moreover, programmes on religion received the lowest ratings of the same eight categories, only 63% of their listeners evaluating them as good against 90% for listeners of news programmes. Data are extracted from ICM’s report on the survey and available at:

http://downloads.bbc.co.uk/bbctrust/assets/files/pdf/our_work/speech_radio/research_report.pdf

GCSE O Level results

Provisional results for the June 2015 GCSE O Level examinations in England, Wales, and Northern Ireland were published by the Joint Council for Qualifications on 20 August 2015. Those for Religious Studies (RS) are tabulated below, with comparisons for 2005. It will be seen that the number of students taking either the full or the short course in RS has fallen by 3% over the decade, a modest decrease when set against that of 13% for all subjects (or 8% for full courses alone). Moreover, this net figure disguises a doubling in entries for the full course in RS and a two-thirds reduction in candidates for the short course, which is equivalent to half a GCSE, in line with the progressive disappearance of short courses in general. For both short and full courses there has been a decennial increase of 3% in the proportion of male students taking RS, contrasting with the continuing preponderance of females at A Level RS. Full results can be found at:

http://www.jcq.org.uk/examination-results/gcses

GCSE RS O Level	2015	2005	% change
Full course
All entries	295,730	147,516	+100
% female candidates	54	57	-3
% with A*-C grades	72	69	+3
Short course
All entries	91,476	253,423	-64
% female candidates	48	51	-3
% with A*-C grades	58	54	+4
Full and short course
All entries	387,206	400,939	-3

Anglican clergy career patterns

The career paths of Anglican clergy are affected by their gender, age, and type of theological training. So concludes Kelvin Randall in his ‘Twenty Years On: The Continuing Careers of Anglican Clergy’, Theology, Vol. 118, No. 5, September-October 2015, pp. 347-53. He tracked, by means of Crockford’s Clerical Directory, the subsequent careers of those ordained to the stipendiary ministry of the Church of England or Church in Wales in 1994 (the year in which women were first ordained as priests in the Church of England). The three factors analysed especially affected the proportion still working as stipendiary clergy in 2014. The article appears in a subscription-based journal, and access options are outlined at:

http://tjx.sagepub.com/content/118/5/347.abstract

Church of England cathedral statistics

Church of England cathedral statistics for 2014 were published on 19 August 2015. Including Westminster Abbey (a royal peculiar), the touristic appeal of English cathedrals remains impressive, visitor numbers exceeding 10 million. In terms of worship services, Christmastide continues to be the biggest draw, with 630,600 people attending during Advent and 124,800 on Christmas Eve or Christmas Day, including 32,300 communicants. Easter attendees were 53,100, among them 27,100 communicants, with a further 89,300 attendees in Holy Week. Average weekly attendance was 36,600, 22% more than in 2004, the growth being in weekday rather than Sunday congregations (albeit they were down on 2013 levels). The full report is available at:

https://www.churchofengland.org/media/2279215/2014cathedralstatistics.pdf

Living with cancer

Older people living with cancer do not receive much in the way of religious or faith-based support, nor would they find it particularly useful. This is according to a report from Ipsos MORI on 24 August 2015, for which 1,004 people aged 55 and over in Britain who had received a diagnosis of cancer at any stage in their lives were interviewed online on 6-13 May 2015 on behalf of Macmillan Cancer Support. Only 12% of this sample reported that they had received religious or faith-based support for their cancer, the eighth in a list of sources of support headed by information and advice (53%). Over-75s were twice as likely as those aged 55-64 to claim to have received religious or faith-based support, 19% against 10%. Asked which types of assistance they would find most useful, religious or faith-based support dropped even lower, to eleventh place for the 55-64s, being preferred by 9% of that cohort and 13% of over-75s. When the health chips are down, apparently, religion is a consolation for only a small minority. The report can be found at:

https://www.ipsos-mori.com/Assets/Docs/Publications/SRI_Health_Macmillan_Older_People_August_2015.pdf

Posted in church attendance, Ministry studies, News from religious organisations, Official data, Religion and Politics, Religion in public debate, Rites of Passage, Survey news | Tagged abortion, assisted dying, BBC Radio 4, BBC Trust, British values, cancer, Cathedrals, Church of England, Evangelical Alliance, evangelicals, faith-based support, ICM Unlimited, Ipsos-MORI, Jeremy Corbyn, Jewish Chronicle, Jews, Joint Council for Qualifications, Kelvin Randall, Labour Party, Macmillan Cancer Support, marriage, National Records of Scotland, O Levels, Protestants, Religious Affiliation, religious broadcasting, religious studies, Roman Catholics, same-sex marriage, Scotland, Scottish Government, Scottish Household Survey, stipendiary clergy, Survation, theology, YouGov | Leave a comment

Trustworthiness of Clergy and Other News

Posted on August 13, 2015 by Clive D. Field

Trustworthiness of clergy

Clergy occupy the middle ground of professionals in terms of their perceived trustworthiness, according to two Opinium Research surveys published on 12 August 2015, for which representative samples of adults were interviewed online in the UK as a whole (12-16 June 2015, n = 2,002) and London (12 June-3 August, n = 1,001). The aim of the investigations was to test the public standing of the police, but 11 other groups (including clergy) were used as comparators. Majorities in both the UK (59%) and London (53%) regarded the clergy as very or quite trustworthy, with 28% and 31% respectively deeming them not very or not at all trustworthy. Nationally, the most adverse views of clergy were held by the 18-24s (37%) and ethnic minorities (40%). Summary data are tabulated below, with full results available via the links at:

http://ourinsight.opinium.co.uk/survey-results/brits-untrusting-police

% very/quite trustworthy	UK	London
Nurses	86	83
Doctors	85	84
Teachers	80	79
Armed forces	75	70
Judges	68	65
Police	65	60
Clergy	59	53
Accountants	56	55
Lawyers	52	47
Broadsheet journalists	25	36
Politicians	16	20
Tabloid journalists	13	16

Predicting Anglican extinction

The Church of England’s statistical fortunes may be none too healthy, overall, but it is still likely to see out the present century, just about, according to John Hayward, writing on the blog of the Church Growth Modelling project on 8 July 2015. On present evidence, he predicts, by means of linear regression and extrapolation, that the extinction date for the Church of England will be 2100 in terms of its attendance or 2082 as regards its membership. By contrast, three of its sister Anglican Churches are projected to die out long before that on an index of membership, assuming constant death rates: 2043 in the case of the Church in Wales and Scottish Episcopal Church and 2055 for the Episcopal Church of the USA. Hayward’s data and interpretations are set out at:

http://churchgrowthmodelling.blogspot.co.uk/2015/07/anglican-church-decline-in-west-data.html

In a subsequent blog, dated 3 August 2015, Hayward suggests some potential ‘advantages’ of the Church of England which may explain why it faces a slower extinction than the other three Churches. See:

http://churchgrowthmodelling.blogspot.co.uk/2015/08/anglican-church-decline-in-west.html

National Survey for Wales

On 7 August 2015 the UK Data Service released as SN 7767 the dataset for National Survey for Wales, 2014-15, the third in the series. Commissioned by the Welsh Government, face-to-face and self-completion interviews were conducted by TNS-BMRB and Beaufort Research between April 2014 and March 2015 with 14,285 adults aged 16 and over resident in private households in Wales. Although the questionnaire contained no specific component on religion or morality, a background question on ‘what is your religion?’ was asked. This naturally enables breakdowns of replies by religion for all the topics which were explored in the survey, focusing especially upon wellbeing and attitudes to public services. The catalogue entry for the dataset, with links to technical and other documentation, is at:

http://discover.ukdataservice.ac.uk/catalogue/?sn=7767&type=Data%20catalogue

A Level results

The June 2015 GCE A Level provisional results for England, Wales, and Northern Ireland were published by the Joint Council for Qualifications on 13 August 2015. In terms of Religious Studies (RS), there were 25,773 entries, 6% more than in 2014 and 53% more than in 2005. RS remains a relatively gendered examination choice, with 69% of candidates being female, compared with an average of 55% for all subjects. The overall pass rate for A Level RS in 2015 was 99%, one point more than for all subjects combined, 80% obtaining a grade of A*-C. There were also 40,067 entries for an AS Level in RS. Much more detail is available at:

http://www.jcq.org.uk/examination-results/a-levels

Religion of FCO staff

The Foreign and Commonwealth Office (FCO) Diversity and Equality Report, 2014-15, published on 31 July 2015, included details of the religious profession of its UK-based staff. Of the 42% who were willing to make a declaration, 43% identified as Christians, 33% as agnostics or atheists, 7% as non-Christians, with 17% preferring not to say. The overall (relatively low) declaration rate fir religion was the same as for disability and sexual orientation. The report is at:

https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/450587/FFFCO827_Equality_Report_2015_v5.pdf

London mayor

The London Mayoral election may not be until 5 May 2016, but the political parties are in the midst of selecting their preferred candidates to represent them. According to a YouGov poll for LBC Radio published on 13 August 2015, for which 1,153 Londoners were interviewed online on 10-12 August 2015, Muslim candidates could find themselves at a disadvantage (Syed Kamall still being in the chase for the Conservative nomination and Sadiq Khan for the Labour one). Asked whether they would be comfortable in a member of several groups becoming the next Mayor of London, only 55% of the public said they would be comfortable with a Muslim mayor, compared with 90% for a woman, 76% for an ethnic minority person, and 71% for a homosexual. Just under one-third (31%) replied they would be uncomfortable with a Muslim mayor, rising to 39% of Conservatives, 49% of over-60s, and 73% of UKIP voters. Data tables are at:

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/2vpf4yt9ve/LBCResults_London_trackers_Mayor_tubestrike_150812_W.pdf

Islamic State

More than two-thirds (68%) of adults in the UK think the European Union (EU) has responded badly to the success of Islamic State (IS), more than ten times the number (6%) who believe that it has handled the matter well. These are much the same results as the average for all seven Western European countries in the survey, 67% and 5% respectively, the other nations being France, Germany, Italy, The Netherlands, Portugal, and Spain. Fieldwork was conducted by Opinium Research for Cambre Associates among an online sample of 7.017 adults, including 1,005 in the UK, between 29 June and 10 July 2015. Majorities in both the UK and all seven countries as a whole also judged the EU to have badly handled three other current international issues: refugees arriving from Syria, the Greek debt crisis, and the conflict in Ukraine. Data tables were published on 11 August at:

http://ourinsight.opinium.co.uk/sites/ourinsight.opinium.co.uk/files/op5154_opinium_pr_european_union_-_tables.pdf

Posted in Ministry studies, News from religious organisations, Official data, Religion and Politics, Religious prejudice, Survey news | Tagged A Levels, Beaufort Research, Cambre Associates, church growth, Church of England, clergy, diversity, European Union, examinations, Foreign and Commonwealth Office, Islamic State, Islamophobia, John Hayward, Joint Council for Qualifications, LBC Radio, London, London mayoral election, Muslims, National Survey for Wales, Opinium Research, professions, Religious Affiliation, religious studies, TNS-BMRB, trustworthiness, YouGov | Leave a comment

A Baker’s Dozen of Religious Statistics

Posted on August 1, 2015 by Clive D. Field

Civil and religious marriages

A press release from the University of Oxford on 21 July 2015 highlighted the relentless decline in the number of marriages in England and Wales which are legally solemnized in religious ceremonies. They now account for just 30% of the total, although this figure excludes civil marriages which are followed by a service in a place of worship that carries no legal recognition; this is widely the case with marriages for Muslims and Sikhs. The fall in religious ceremonies, which can be traced back to the 1970s, has been especially pronounced since the passage of the Marriage Act 1994, which permitted marriages in ‘approved premises’ (such as hotels, castles, and stately homes). Until the Act came into effect, the majority of first marriages for both partners were still religious ceremonies. The new research is based on an analysis of official data on the solemnization of marriages, from the beginning of civil registration in the early Victorian era, undertaken by John Haskey, formerly of the Office for National Statistics. It will be published in full next month in Haskey’s chapter entitled ‘Marriage Rites: Trends in Marriages by Manner of Solemnisation and Denomination in England and Wales, 1841-2012’ in Marriage Rites and Rights, edited by Joanna Miles, Perveez Mody, and Rebecca Probert (Hart Publishing, ISBN 9781849469135, paperback, £35). The volume will also contain three other chapters on the religious aspects of marriage. In the meantime, the University of Oxford’s press release can be read at:

http://www.ox.ac.uk/news/2015-07-21-just-one-three-weddings-england-and-wales-has-religious-ceremony

Babies in the 2011 census

In the latest post on the Nonreligion and Secularity Research Network blog, dated 25 July 2015, Katherine Sissons examines the religion assigned to babies and young children (aged 0-4) in England and Wales in the 2011 census. She notes that males in this age group were 1% less likely than females to be returned as Christian and 1% more likely to be described as having no religion. She speculates about the possible reasons for this and about the potential impact on the balance between religiosity and non-religiosity in the next generation. However, she rather assumes that the assignment of religion to children is some kind of joint decision of parents completing the census schedule. In fact, many if not most questions on the form will have been answered by a single individual on behalf of the whole household, whose members – whether adults or children – may or may not have been consulted in detail about the proposed replies. Other generic issues, not mentioned by the author, are that religion was not stated for 1% more children (under 16 years) than adults (8% against 7%) and that 6% more children (30% versus 24% for adults) were declared as having no religion. It is possible that, in the case of children, some informants may have been using the latter category, not according to its literal meaning, but to denote that their offspring were too young to be religiously classified and that this was a matter about which their children had to make up their minds when they were older. After all, two-thirds of babies are no longer baptised in the UK, so, at least so far as Christianity is concerned, formal links with faith do not commence early in life. The post is at:

http://blog.nsrn.net/2015/07/25/what-religion-is-your-baby-2/

Importance of religion

The latest Eurobarometer (wave 83.3), conducted by TNS for the European Commission in the 28 member states of the European Union (EU) in May 2015, has confirmed that, relatively speaking, religion remains an insignificant personal value. Asked to choose, from a list of 12 values, the three which were most important to them as individuals, only 5% in the UK selected religion, which was also the EU average (with just six countries recording a double-digit figure). Respect for human life was the top personal value in the UK (41%), closely followed by human rights and peace (each on 38%). Religion also scored poorly as a force for creating a feeling of community among EU citizens (7% in the UK, 8% in the EU) and as a value best representing the EU itself (3% in both the UK and EU). Topline results can be found in T123-T128 at:

http://ec.europa.eu/public_opinion/archives/eb/eb83/eb83_anx_en.pdf

Religious affiliation

Three recent published surveys by ORB International, conducted among a merged sample of 6,107 adults interviewed online on 19-21 June, 10-12 July, and 24-26 July 2015, reveal the current level of religious affiliation in Britain. The question asked was: ‘Which of the following religious groups do you consider yourself to be a member of?’ This is a form of questioning which, through its reference to ‘membership’, is felt likely to discourage some of the most nominal identification with religion. In reply, 52% of Britons professed themselves Christian, 7% non-Christian, and 38% as of no religion, with 2% preferring not to say.

Religious broadcasting

Figures published on 16 July 2015 in the Government’s Green Paper on the renewal of the BBC Charter superficially reveal a reduction in the amount of the Corporation’s religious programming during recent years, from 181 hours on network television in 2006 to 157 in 2014, and from 1,084 hours on radio in 2006 to 592 in 2014. However, some of the difference may be attributable to a change in the BBC’s classification scheme over this period. The Green Paper is at:

https://www.gov.uk/government/consultations/bbc-charter-review-public-consultation

Ministerial stress

Stress in the Christian ministry has been in the news recently following the suspected stress-related suicide of Revd Christopher Loveless, an Anglican vicar. His plight is by no means atypical, if the findings of a survey conducted by Oasis UK among a self-selecting sample of 200 ministers and church leaders are anything like representative. Although 86% of respondents described their ministry as very or quite rewarding, 71% found their role very or quite stressful, 65% reported that it had put strain on their marrage or equivalent relationship, while 64% felt incredibly pushed for time and struggled to get everything done. Over two-fifths sensed that their church members had little or no understanding of the pressures they were under. Indeed, they could make the situation worse, 76% of ministers acknowledging that church members regularly behaved rudely or aggressively toward them. A news release about the survey is at:

http://www.oasisuk.org/news/church-leadership-stress-places-%E2%80%98significant-strain%E2%80%99-marriages

Church of England (1): diversity

Further to our reference on 19 July 2015 to the preliminary results of the Church of England’s ‘Everyone Counts’ diversity audit in 2014, the Church has now felt it necessary to issue a public apology for failing to include any question about the sexual orientation of its congregations in the audit. The statement, released on 24 July, is at:

https://www.churchofengland.org/media-centre/news/2015/07/statement-on-‘everyone-counts’-survey.aspx

Church of England (2): finance

Finance Statistics, 2013 for the Church of England (excluding the Diocese of Europe) were published on 30 July 2015. Following three years of parish deficits in 2007-10, mirroring the national economic recession, the financial situation is now improving in absolute terms. A surplus of £33 million was reported in 2013, with income of £953 million (the highest total ever recorded) surpassing expenditure of £920 million. The latter figure was 1.0% down on 2012, reflecting cost reductions, while income rose by 2.6% overall and by 4.5% from the average individual tax-efficient planned giver. However, income is continuing to fall in real terms, and there was a decrease of 2.8% in the number of regular donors. The report is at:

https://www.churchofengland.org/media/2265027/2013financestatistics.pdf

British Humanist Association membership

Organized irreligion may be suffering from the same ageing membership as is to be found in many traditional Churches, if new research from Gareth Longden is anything to go by: ‘A Profile of the Members of the British Humanist Association’ [BHA], Science, Religion & Culture, Vol. 2, No. 3, June 2015, pp. 86-95. The article derives from a questionnaire completed by 1,097 members of the BHA in March-May 2014, just under one-tenth of the organization’s total membership and slightly more than half those invited to participate. Comparisons are made with an earlier membership survey carried out by Colin Campbell in 1964, shortly after the BHA was formed. In 2014 65% of BHA members were aged 50 and over, against 38% fifty years before. In consequence 37% were already retired in 2014, compared with only 14% in 1964. The BHA remained disproportionately male, albeit less so than in 1964 (65% versus 73%). The BHA also lived up to its reputation for being a ‘middle class intelligentsia’, with 82% of members in 2014 in possession of an undergraduate or postgraduate degree and the overwhelming majority in professional or managerial occupations, especially in education and information technology. Spatially, humanists were concentrated in the South of England, notably in London and the South-East. The article is available on an open access basis at:

http://smithandfranklin.com/journal-details/Science-Religion-and-Culture/9/archive/2015/June

Jewish social care

The Jewish population of the UK may only have numbered 270,000 in 2011, but there are no fewer than 549 social care organizations and 702 social care facilities and services to meet their needs. Even after stripping out small operations to support the economically deprived in the haredi community, there still remain 70 organizations and 205 facilities or services. This is according to preliminary findings from an audit of Jewish social care undertaken by the Institute for Jewish Policy Research (JPR) on behalf of the Jewish Leadership Council, and released on 23 July 2015. Indeed, in Jewish communities experiencing population decline there was evidence of a possible over-supply of social care provision. On the other hand, in JPR’s estimation, insufficient effort is being devoted to poverty prevention among UK Jews. For more information, see the blog by Jonathan Boyd at:

http://www.thejlc.org/2015/07/mapping-social-care-organisations-and-facilities-in-the-uk-jewish-community/

Anti-Semitic incidents

On 30 July 2015 the Community Security Trust (CST) published a report on Antisemitic Incidents, January-June 2015 in the UK, noting that the number during this period was, at 473, 53% more than during the first six months of 2014. The increase was most pronounced during the first quarter of 2015 and is mainly attributed by the CST to improved notification of incidents, due to raised concerns about anti-Semitism in the Jewish community following the terrorist attacks in Paris and Copenhagen. The report is at:

https://cst.org.uk/public/data/file/0/e/Incidents_Report_-_Jan-June_2015.pdf

Islamic State (1): flag

Just over three-quarters (77%) of the public want to see the display of the Islamic State (IS) flag banned in Britain, according to a YouGov poll conducted online among 1,669 adults on 9-10 July 2015 and published on 19 July. The proportion rises to 84% among residents of Northern England, 87% of Conservatives, and 88% of UKIP voters and over-60s. Just 15% think the IS flag should not be banned, peaking at 25% of 18-24s. Similar results were obtained for a question on the prohibition of the display of the Nazi swastika in Britain, 75% being in favour and 17% against. In the United States, where the First Amendment protects freedom of speech, there is lower but still majority backing for banning the display of the IS flag (63%) and swastika (57%). More details, including links to data tables, can be found in the blog at:

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2015/07/19/ban-isis-flag-american-and-british-public/

Islamic State (2): escalating UK military actions

Two recent polls have probed public opinion on the possible escalation of UK military action against IS in the light of an anticipated House of Commons debate on the subject next month. The first, by ORB International and conducted online among a sample of 2,049 Britons on 24-26 July 2015, revealed 67% support for an extension of UK air strikes against IS in Iraq and Syria, including 76% of over-65s. Fewer (41%) endorsed the commitment of UK ground troops and tanks, with 59% opposed, reaching two-thirds among women and the over-55s. Data tables are at:

http://www.opinion.co.uk/perch/resources/julypoll.pdf

The second survey, by ComRes for the Daily Mail, was conducted by telephone interview with 1,001 Britons, also on 24-26 July 2015. Its focus was specifically on possible British military intervention against IS in Syria. There was majority support (56%, with 33% opposed) for air strikes against IS in Syria but reluctance (41% in favour, 49% against) to engage British troops in Syria. Almost two-fifths (38%) agreed, while 49% disagreed, that Britain should not become militarily involved in Syria but should stand back and let the situation there run its course. However, few considered that British military action against IS in Syria would materially improve prospects. Asked whether it would make places safer or more dangerous, just 16% felt the streets of Britain would be safer, 19% tourist beaches in North Africa, 21% the Middle East generally, and 27% the situation on the ground in Syria itself. Two-fifths (39%) thought the streets of Britain would become more dangerous as a result of British military action against IS in Syria. Data tables are at:

http://comres.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/Daily-Mail_Political-Poll_July-2015.pdf

Posted in Ministry studies, News from religious organisations, Official data, Religion and Politics, Religion and Social Capital, Religious Census, Religious prejudice, Survey news | Tagged air strikes, Anti-Semitism, babies, BBC, British Humanist Association, Church of England, Community Security Trust, ComRes, Daily Mail, Eurobarometer, European Union, finance, flag, Gareth Longden, ground troops, humanists, importance of religion, Institute for Jewish Policy Research, Iraq, Islamic State, Jewish Leadership Council, Jewish social care, Jews, John Haskey, Jonathan Boyd, Katherine Sissons, marriages, ministerial stress, Nonreligion and Secularity Research Network, Oasis UK, ORB International, Religious Affiliation, religious broadcasting, religious census, Science Religion and Culture, sexual orientation, Syria, TNS, values, YouGov | Leave a comment

Secularizing Selfhood and Other News

Posted on July 11, 2015 by Clive D. Field

Secularizing selfhood

I recently gave a presentation at the Rethinking Modern British Studies conference at the University of Birmingham, which was loosely devoted to an exploration of themes contained in a previous working paper from the Modern British Studies initiative. One of these themes is the transformation of selfhood in modern British society, which I illustrated in my presentation by a study of six different self-rating measures of religiosity derived from recurrent and non-recurrent sample surveys undertaken in Britain since the 1960s. These data on the personal saliency of religion were found to be broadly consistent with other quantitative performance indicators which suggest that Britain is in the midst of progressive (and ongoing) secularization. In this particular instance, the 1990s were revealed as a major tipping-point and the personal saliency of religion was shown to be much lower than in most other Western nations. An article based on the presentation will hopefully appear in an academic journal in due course, but meanwhile some BRIN readers may be interested to see the PowerPoint slides from the conference. They can be viewed by clicking on the following link:

Saliency – conference presentation

Religion and ethnic minorities

The Conservative peer Baroness Berridge initiated a short debate in the House of Lords on 6 July 2015 by asking the Government ‘what assessment they have made of the contribution of Britain’s ethnic minorities to faith communities and public institutions in the United Kingdom’. In her opening speech, she illustrated, through census and other statistics, the disproportionate influence of BMEs on the religious landscape: ‘If you are from the black and minority ethnic community, you are more likely to identify with a religion than the white population, to be religiously observant, and to see religion as an important part of your life.’ For a transcript of the debate, see:

http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/ld201516/ldhansrd/text/150706-0002.htm#15070627000071

Church-based parent and toddler groups

The Impact of Church-Based Parent and Toddler Groups is assessed in a new report from Jubilee+, written by Andy Biggs, Miles Jarvis, Andrew McWilliam, and Rachel Green. These groups are the second commonest form of church-based social action, after food-distribution schemes (such as foodbanks). The report derives from an online survey of parent and toddler groups undertaken between July and September 2014, which attracted 470 responses, 440 of them from group leaders, from a wide range of UK locations and denominations. Unsurprisingly, the self-assessed impact of the groups was found to be positive for individuals, families, and communities alike, including a modest contribution to church growth. The authors’ overall estimate, from other studies, is that up to 27,000 UK churches run projects for the early years (ages 0-5) and that 52% of children in England access some form of parent and toddler group via churches. The report can be found at:

http://www.jubilee-plus.org/Articles/440843/Jubilee_Plus/Research/THE_IMPACT_OF.aspx

Anglican church growth

Church growth appears to have become a bit of a growth industry recently, in the Church of England at least. The latest output, published on 30 June 2015, is by Bob Jackson, What Makes Churches Grow? Vision and Practice in Effective Mission (London: Church House Publishing, 2015, xvi + 299pp., ISBN 9780715144749, £19.99, paperback). Jackson has a long track-record in church growth initiatives, with several books and courses to his credit, and he is currently Director of the Centre for Church Growth at St John’s College, Nottingham, as well as being a consultant and speaker in the field. As might be inferred from the title, this is not an academic treatise but a good practice guide written from empirical and theological standpoints, addressing both numerical and spiritual growth, and seemingly mainly intended for an Anglican audience. There are plenty of tables (33) and figures (31), although most of the raw data can be more comprehensively obtained from the Church’s Research and Statistics website.

Unsurprisingly, Jackson is fairly upbeat about the prospects for growth: ‘the balance of the evidence suggests that the Church of England has probably stopped shrinking numerically and, on some measures, may even be growing overall’ (p. xiv). He gets especially excited about Messy Church (‘the biggest single churchgoing growth phenomenon in this country since the rise of Sunday schools and Methodism at the end of the eighteenth century’, p. 175) and at the apparent excess of joiners over leavers in the worshipping community (an experimental measure raising sundry methodological caveats). Like much writing about church growth, progress tends to be measured in absolute terms not against an increasing and more diverse population, so that much which passes as church growth is, in reality, still relative decline. The publisher’s webpage for the book is at:

http://www.chpublishing.co.uk/books/9780715144749/what-makes-churches-grow

Christenings

The number of infant baptisms performed by the various Churches in the UK has now fallen to around one-third of births, according to the latest estimates by Peter Brierley in UK Church Statistics, 2005-2015 (table 13.8.3), compared with over half in the late 1990s. Nowhere has the decrease been greater than in the Church of England, where there were only 79,400 infant and 42,600 child baptisms in 2013. Nevertheless, research released in the barest headline by the Church on 3 July 2015 revealed that Anglican christenings are still not without appeal to the Church’s outer fringes. Interviews with 1,000 individuals who were not regular churchgoers and who had a child aged two or younger baptised in the Church of England found that for 89% christening was deemed an essential foundation for life and that 91% had been influenced by godparents to have their child baptised. The press release is at:

https://www.churchofengland.org/media-centre/news/2015/07/christenings-a-positive-choice.aspx

Catholics and the family

Further evidence that grass-roots Catholics are disenchanted with the Church’s teaching on marital, family, and sexual matters is provided by the results of two surveys released by the pressure group A Call to Action (ACTA) on 1 July 2015. One study attracted responses from Catholics across England and Wales (n = 342) while the other was organized by a parish group in Wolverhampton (n = 376). The samples were neither random nor quota, but the findings were compatible with those obtained from earlier and more representative national samples of Catholics, such as the YouGov poll for Westminster Faith Debates in 2013. They exemplified the demand among Catholics for ‘a kinder, more open Church and an end to rule-book driven policies on the family and sex’. In particular, there was overwhelming support for lifting the bans on the use of artificial methods of contraception and on divorced and remarried persons receiving Communion, as well as very strong empathy for people in same-sex relationships. The report on the national survey (written by Andrew Hornsby-Smith) and appendices of raw data on both the national and Wolverhampton surveys can be accessed via the links in ACTA’s press release at:

http://www.acalltoaction.org.uk/11-news/277-the-smell-of-the-sheep-synod-2015

Religious education teachers

The majority (54%) of the 15,300 state-funded secondary school teachers of religious education in England have no relevant post-A Level qualification in the subject, according to the results of the School Workforce Census for November 2014 which were published by the Department for Education on 2 July 2015. Only teachers of citizenship (93%), engineering (82%), media studies (78%), foreign languages other than French, German, or Spanish (62%), and information and communications technology (58%) are less qualified to teach their subjects. See Table 12 in the main tables of the census at:

https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/school-workforce-in-england-november-2014

Hospital chaplaincy

NHS trusts across the UK spent £23.5 million on chaplaincy services in the last financial year, £1.5 million more than in 2012/13, according to data obtained from Freedom of Information requests submitted by The Independent to 230 trusts. For the newspaper’s coverage, see:

http://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/health-and-families/health-news/nhs-patients-religious-services-should-not-be-paid-for-by-taxpayer-say-critics-10366214.html

Sunday trading

Sunday trading is back on the political agenda with the recent announcement by Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne that the Government is proposing to introduce a form of local option for Sunday trading hours in England and Wales, which are currently capped at six for large shops. Under the proposal, responsibility for determining the extent of trading hours in particular areas would be devolved to the relevant local council. The announcement has prompted YouGov to take the pulse of public opinion on the matter, through an online survey of 1,669 Britons on 9-10 July 2015. Data tables are at:

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/fotdolr0wu/InternalResults_150710_budget_living_wage_benefits_Sunday_opening_W.pdf

A majority of the population (53% in Britain and 52% in England and Wales) favours liberalization of the laws on Sunday trading, with 33% backing total deregulation (leaving shops to decide when they open) and an additional 20% wishing to see the current rules relaxed so that shops can open for longer hours. This majority is disproportionately to be found among the under-25s (67%), Liberal Democrat voters (62%), and in Scotland (where the existing legislation does not apply, 71%). About one-quarter (24%) are happy with the status quo of six hours for large shops, while 6% want to see more restricted Sunday trading and 9% none at all. The aggregate of the last two categories (15%) rose to 22% of UKIP supporters and 20% of over-60s.

Asked whether, in practice, they ever go shopping on a Sunday, 51% say that they do once a month or more, including 61% of under-25s and 64% of Scots. The proportion never or hardly ever shopping on Sunday (28%) peaks among over-60s (42%). Respondents were also questioned about how often they worked on Sunday, 16% (roughly one in four of those currently in employment) doing so at least once a month, with the under-40s (23%) and Scots (26%) being most likely to work on Sundays.

Star signs

The overwhelming majority (96%) of the British population is aware of their star sign, the most ignorant (12%) being the under-25s. But only 20% believe that such signs can tell you something about yourself or another person, women being most convinced (27%), while 69% deny the possibility. This is according to a YouGov poll conducted among an online sample of 1,601 adult Britons on 1-2 July 2015.

Disbelief is higher in the ability of horoscopes to foretell what will happen in the future, 82% saying that they cannot do so and just 8% (peaking at 11% in Scotland) that they can (less than in the United States, where the figure is 14%). Even fewer Britons (4%), and no more than 7% in any demographic sub-group, claim to have changed their behaviour based on something read in a horoscope, 93% definite that they have not.

At the same time, as many as 55% of the population believe in fate, disproportionately concentrated among women (65%) and manual workers (61%), with 32% disbelieving and 12% uncertain. Slightly more Britons than Americans (52%) believe in fate. For more information, including links to both British and American data tables, see the YouGov blog of 3 July 2015 at:

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2015/07/03/8-of-Britons-believe-horoscopes-predict-the-future/

Posted in News from religious organisations, Official data, Religion and Ethnicity, Religion and Politics, Religion and Social Capital, Rites of Passage, Survey news | Tagged A Call to Action, ACTA, Andrew Hornsby-Smith, Andrew McWilliam, Andy Biggs, baptisms, Baroness Berridge, Bob Jackson, christenings, church growth, Church of England, church-based social action, Clive Field, Department for Education, ethnic minorities, family, fate, horoscopes, hospital chaplaincy, House of Lords, Jubilee Plus, marriage, Miles Jarvis, parent and toddler groups, Rachel Green, Religiosity, religious education teachers, Roman Catholic Church, saliency of religion, selfhood, sex, star signs, Sunday trading, The Independent, YouGov | Leave a comment

Mid-Year Round-Up

Posted on June 30, 2015 by Clive D. Field

Immigration and the religious landscape

Were it not for immigration, the speed of secularization in England and Wales might have been even faster. That is one gloss that could be put on a report from the Office for National Statistics on 18 June 2015: 2011 Census Analysis: Ethnicity and Religion of the Non-UK Born Population in England and Wales. For the proportion of UK-born residents professing no religion in 2011 was, at 27%, almost double the figure among the non-UK-born (14%). However, the situation appears to be changing and, for those arriving in the UK between 2007 and 2011, it was 17%. Also, although there were 3,567,000 foreign-born Christians in England and Wales in 2011, they still accounted for a minority of all immigrants, so their numbers alone could not offset the largely intergenerational process of disaffiliation from Christianity which is at work among the native-born. Some media coverage of the report, as in the Daily Telegraph for 19 June 2015, p. 6 (‘migrants are mainstay of Christian faith’), is therefore rather misleading. In relative terms, Sikh immigration has fallen continuously since 1981, and even Muslim immigration has tailed off somewhat since the Millennium, albeit non-UK-born Muslims still outnumber the UK-born. Summary data are tabulated below. Fuller information can be found in 2011 Census Tables DC2207EW (country of birth by religion by sex) and CT02652011 (country of birth by year of arrival by religion) which can be accessed via the links embedded in the report at:

http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/dcp171776_407038.pdf

% down	UK-born	Non-UK-born: total	Non-UK-born: 2007-11 arrivals
No religion	26.9	13.8	16.9
Christian	61.1	47.5	47.5
Buddhist	0.2	2.0	2.8
Hindu	0.6	7.3	7.2
Jewish	0.4	0.7	0.6
Muslim	2.6	19.0	16.3
Sikh	0.5	2.4	1.2
Other religion	0.4	0.6	0.4
Not stated	7.3	6.7	7.1

Predicting the demise of British Christianity

Writing in The Spectator on 13 June 2015, and projecting forward on the basis of evidence from the census of population and sample surveys, Damian Thompson suggested that 2067 will be the year in which the profession of Christianity will finally disappear from the British Isles, with Anglicanism set to vanish in 2033. See:

http://www.spectator.co.uk/features/9555222/2067-the-end-of-british-christianity/

Ramadan (1): knowledge of

We are mid-way through the Islamic holy month of Ramadan, which, in terms of fasting, began on 18 June 2015. To mark the event, and the launch of the broadcaster’s ‘My Ramadan’ mini-season, BBC Religion and Ethics commissioned an opinion poll from TNS among a sample of 2,036 Britons aged 16 and over. It revealed that, although the majority of the public agrees that cultural diversity is a positive thing, only 52% claim to have a clear understanding of what Ramadan is about, falling to 43% among over-65s. A plurality believes that it is just devout Muslims who do not eat or drink anything during the daylight hours of Ramadan. No data tables for the survey are in the public domain, but the BBC press release of 18 June can be read at:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/mediacentre/latestnews/2015/my-ramadan

Ramadan (2): retail value of

‘Ramadan spurs increase in grocery sales’, Retail Week reported on 23 June 2015. ‘UK’s largest supermarkets have seen a rise in sales because of the holy month of Ramadan, with the Islamic festival becoming the most important retail event after Christmas and Easter. The Big Four [supermarkets] are expecting sales to increase by about £100m over the next month as the UK’s three million Muslims embark on fasting.’

Combating Islamic State

Two-thirds of 999 Britons interviewed by telephone on behalf of the Pew Global Attitudes Project on 8-28 April 2015 approved of the US-led military action being taken against Islamic State (IS) in Iraq and Syria, with one-fifth opposed and 15% undecided. The level of support was lower than in several other Western countries such as France (81%), US (80%), Australia (77%), Italy (70%), and Spain (67%) and in Middle Eastern nations such as Israel (84%), Lebanon (78%), and Jordan (77%). However, approval of US President Barack Obama’s handling of IS was higher in Britain (43%) than the US (40%), with disapproval at 37% and 54% respectively. For the Pew topline report, released on 23 June 2015, see:

http://www.pewglobal.org/files/2015/06/Balance-of-Power-Report-FINAL-June-23-20151.pdf

Anti-Semitism

The UK’s Jewish population is far more fearful of Islamist extremists (61%) than it is of neo-Nazis (16%), according to a new Survation poll for the Jewish Chronicle, conducted predominantly by telephone among 1,023 members of a pre-recruited adult Jewish panel between 17 and 23 June 2015. The remainder fear neither or are undecided. A majority of Jews (72%) is opposed to anti-Semitic groups being allowed to stage peaceful demonstrations in Jewish areas, with only 22% in favour, while 62% support Jews holding counter-demonstrations to anti-Semitic rallies (with 29% against). Data tables, disaggregated by gender, age, and region, are available at:

http://survation.com/?attachment_id=8032

The context of the survey is an imminent planned protest by far-right activists in Golders Green, London against the alleged ‘Jewification’ of the area. However, the Jewish Chronicle’s headline about the poll (‘Ban Golders Green Rally, Say 72 Per Cent’) is somewhat misleading since respondents were not specifically asked whether that particular event should be banned.

History of Church of England finance

An important new book by Sarah Flew brings the tools of accountancy and financial management to bear on the history of the Established Church in England, not so much in the round as through a case study of the funding of home missionary organizations in the Diocese of London during the late Victorian and Edwardian eras. Philanthropy and the Funding of the Church of England, 1856-1914 (London: Pickering & Chatto, 2015, xv + 251p., ISBN 9781848935006, hardback, £60, with ebook editions for £24) is based on a wide range of hitherto little-used archival and other primary sources, and includes a good dose of tables. Flew charts the progressive decline in Christian philanthropy and its connection with secularization. More information is available at:

https://www.pickeringchatto.com/titles/1783-9781848935006-philanthropy-and-the-funding-of-the-church-of-england-1856-1914

Britain’s Last Religious Revival?

Apologies for the plug, but prospective purchasers of my new book on the statistics of religious change in Britain between 1945 and 1963 (mentioned in my BRIN post of 8 March 2015) may like to know that, for a limited period (until 29 February 2016), copies can be bought by individuals direct from the publisher at a 30% discount.

Just quote ‘PM15THIRTY’ when ordering the book from the Palgrave Macmillan website at http://www.palgrave.com/page/detail/britain-s-last-religious-revival–clive-d–field/?sf1=barcode&st1=9781137512529 or via email to orders@palgrave.com.

For full terms and conditions applicable to the discount, see:

http://www.palgrave.com/page/Palgrave-discount-codes-terms-and-conditions/

Posted in Historical studies, Official data, Religion and Politics, Religion in the Press, Religious Census, Religious prejudice, Survey news | Tagged Anti-Semitism, BBC, census of population, Christianity, Church of England, Clive Field, Damian Thompson, Diocese of London, finance, home missions, Immigration, Islam, Islamic State, Jewish Chronicle, Jews, Office for National Statistics, Pew Global Attitudes Project, Ramadan, Religious Affiliation, Sarah Flew, supermarkets, Survation, The Spectator, TNS | Leave a comment

General Election Voting and Other News

Posted on May 16, 2015 by Clive D. Field

How religious groups actually voted

BRIN has covered several surveys which sought to ascertain how members of faith groups intended to vote in the UK general election of 7 May 2015. Thanks to Lord Ashcroft, we now have some information about what the three major groups (Christian, non-Christian, no religion) actually did, both as regards voting behaviour and the factors influencing it. Between 5 and 7 May 2015 Ashcroft interviewed, by a combination of online and telephone, 12,253 Britons who claimed to have voted (and it should be remembered that one-third of the country did not cast their vote on 7 May), of whom 31% had done so by post beforehand and 68% in person on the day. A selection of findings is tabulated below, with the full data available at:

http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/Post-vote-poll-GE-2015-150507-Full-tables.pdf

In terms of voting at the 2015 general election, the data confirm the findings of other research, that:

Christians are disproportionately Conservative
Non-Christians are disproportionately Labour
No religionists disproportionately favour the smaller parties

% down	All	Christian	Non-Christian	No religion
Party voted for in 2015
Conservative	34	41	28	24
Labour	31	28	43	34
UKIP	14	16	8	13
LibDem	9	8	8	11
Other	12	9	14	18
When voting decision was made
On polling day	11	10	13	12
Within previous week	22	20	23	23
Within previous month	18	17	19	18
Longer ago	50	53	45	46
Single most important reason for vote
Trusted motives/value of party	38	36	34	42
Preferred promises made by party	18	18	18	18
Always voted for party	10	12	10	8
Party leader would make better Prime Minister	10	11	12	7
Best local candidate regardless of party	9	9	12	9
Voted tactically to stop another party	9	8	9	11
Senior party members make competent government	5	6	4	5
Party voted for in 2010
Conservative	39	46	33	28
Labour	26	25	33	28
UKIP	4	4	3	3
LibDem	24	21	24	31
Other	8	5	6	10
Most important issues for country
Improving NHS	55	55	57	56
Growing economy/creating jobs	51	51	46	53
Controlling immigration	41	48	32	32
Cutting deficit	30	33	24	28
Tackling cost of living	25	21	30	30
Reforming welfare	20	22	17	18
Defending Britain’s interests in Europe	18	21	15	14
Improving schools	13	11	16	15
Protecting environment	9	5	11	13
Dealing with crime	6	6	9	5
Most important issues for self/family
Improving NHS	58	58	56	57
Tackling cost of living	44	42	45	47
Growing economy/creating jobs	42	41	38	43
Controlling immigration	29	34	23	23
Cutting deficit	20	22	17	18
Improving schools	17	16	20	18
Defending Britain’s interests in Europe	13	16	9	10
Reforming welfare	12	14	10	10
Protecting environment	12	9	15	16
Dealing with crime	10	10	15	9
Would make better Prime Minister
David Cameron	50	57	40	40
Ed Miliband	33	28	43	40
Feeling benefits of economic recovery
Already	26	29	21	23
Not yet but expect to at some point	37	38	40	34
No and do not expect to	37	33	38	44
Austerity/cuts in government expenditure
Still needed over next five years	46	51	38	40
Needed in past but not over next five years	30	31	29	28
Never really needed	24	18	33	32

British Election Study constituency results file

Thanks to Ben Clements for pointing out that on 15 May 2015 the British Election Study (BES) 2015 team released the first version of the 2015 general election results file. This comprises, for each constituency, voting from both the 2015 and 2010 general elections alongside a range of contextual information, including religious affiliation data from the 2011 population census. See the BES press release at:

http://www.britishelectionstudy.com/bes-resources/2015-general-election-results-data-released-by-the-bes/#.VVYrfelFDX6

Demise of the Methodist MP

The Methodist Recorder (15 May 2015, p. 1) thinks there are no Methodist MPs following the 2015 general election, Sir Alan Beith, Meg Munn, and Sir Andrew Stunell all having stood down when the last Parliament was dissolved. The newspaper regrets the disappearance of the long tradition of Methodist involvement in the House of Commons. A century ago, following the 1906 Liberal landslide, there were as many as 49 Methodist MPs, 37 of them Liberals.

Catholics and voting

The Tablet (16 May 2015, pp. 47, 51) has partially released the topline findings of an online poll of the voting intentions of 1,260 self-identifying British Catholics which it commissioned YouGov to undertake in the run-up to the general election on 7 May 2015. The weekly’s coverage particularly focused on the situation in Scotland, where 48% of Catholics indicated their support for the Scottish National Party and only 38% for the Scottish Labour Party, which has traditionally been very dependent on the Catholic vote. In Britain as a whole a plurality of 41% of Catholics intended to support Labour (12% less than in an Ipsos MORI survey for The Tablet before the 2005 general election), 31% the Conservatives, and 13% the United Kingdom Independence Party. Neither The Tablet nor YouGov have released the full data tables as yet, but one of the weekly’s articles is freely available online at:

http://www.thetablet.co.uk/news/2075/0/catholics-desert-labour-in-scotland-exclusive-tablet-poll-reveals-

Catholics and climate change

The encyclical on the environment and human ecology due to be promulgated by Pope Francis this summer could have a far greater influence over the lives and lifestyle of English and Welsh Catholics than any other areas of pontifical direction in recent decades, according to one reading of YouGov research for aid agency CAFOD which was reported by Catholic and some secular media last week. A sample of 1,049 Catholics was interviewed online, 80% of whom said they felt a duty to care for God’s creation, with 72% expressing concern about the impact of climate change on the world’s poorest people, and 64% claiming they had paid at least some attention to the climate debate. Seven in ten anticipated the Catholic community would heed any papal message on climate change, albeit only 33% thought themselves likely to alter their own behaviour as a result (against 54% thinking it unlikely). Frustratingly, neither CAFOD nor YouGov have yet released the full data for this survey, which has forced BRIN to rely upon news stories in the Catholic Times and The Tablet as its sources, the latter being available at:

http://www.thetablet.co.uk/news/2036/0/one-in-three-catholics-says-francis-document-on-climate-change-will-inspire-them-to-live-a-greener-lifestyle-

Religious leaders

Religious leaders exercise relatively little influence over the British population, according to a YouGov poll for The Tablet among a sample of 3,211 adults interviewed online between 30 March and 1 April 2015. Only 19% acknowledged that they had been influenced by one or more religious leaders (even by one they had personally known) during the course of their lifetime. The proportion did not exceed one-quarter in any demographic sub-group apart from Catholics (41%) and non-Christians (33%) while predictably falling to as low as 7% for the religious nones. Asked which of seven religious leaders (including the current and former Popes) had made the best contribution to moral and religious life in Britain, 72% of the whole sample replied none of them or that they did not know, the present Archbishop of Canterbury receiving the best individual score (8%). Just 28% said that they took notice when religious leaders made public comments on political or economic matters and even fewer (23%) when they spoke about issues of personal morality (peaking at 41% among Catholics). At the same time, favourability ratings for a few international religious leaders were fairly high, notably for the Dalai Lama (57%), Desmond Tutu (46%), and Pope Francis (40%). This apparent paradox of low influence and some residual popularity is explored in Linda Woodhead’s article accompanying the survey, published in The Tablet, 16 May 2015, pp. 6, 8. Full data tables are available at:

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/ktmkf5g7qy/TheTablet_Results_150401_religious_leaders_Website.pdf

Religious extremism

Almost one in five UK residents considers religious extremism to be one of the most important challenges to the security of EU citizens at present, according to the newly-published report on Europeans’ Attitudes towards Security, based on Special Eurobarometer 432, for which 1,302 UK adults were interviewed face-to-face by TNS UK between 21 and 30 March 2015. Respondents were presented with a list of 15 security challenges from which they could select a maximum of three. The UK’s 19% figure for religious extremism was on a par with the EU average of 20% but it had risen considerably from 10% in June 2011. The report is at:

http://ec.europa.eu/public_opinion/archives/ebs/ebs_432_en.pdf

Britain uncovered poll

In our post of 26 April 2015 we noted some of the headline findings from an online poll pf UK adults by Opinium Research on behalf of The Observer on 13-16 February, especially as regards five specific questions on religion. Opinium released the full data tables on 13 May, extending to 967 pages, and these include, not just breaks by demographics for the religion questions, but breaks by religious affiliation for all the other (secular) questions. The tables can be found at:

http://ourinsight.opinium.co.uk/sites/ourinsight.opinium.co.uk/files/op5186_tables_-_banner1_-_published.pdf

To illustrate the correlates of religious affiliation, we tabulate below the results for some questions about the incidence of lying on various types of form (‘yes’ answers only shown):

Admitted lying (%)	All	Anglican	Catholic	Other Christian	Non-Christian	Agnostic or atheist
Job application form	18	15	26	14	18	20
Insurance form	9	9	19	8	10	7
Tax form	10	11	22	9	13	6
Mortgage application	8	8	20	7	11	5

Sub-sample sizes are rather small, but it is interesting that the group most consistently prone to admit being economical with the truth are not agnostics or atheists but Roman Catholics. Matters were somewhat different when it came to what to do about finding a wallet containing £200, the proportion saying they would keep it being similar for Catholics (30%) as for agnostics and atheists (29%), against 25% for the population as a whole.

New Churches in the North East

BRIN is indebted to David Goodhew for the following update: The ‘New Churches in the North East’ Project, funded by a Leech Fellowship, is close to completion. At a conference at St Johns College, Durham on 17 April 2015 draft findings were presented. The research team estimate that 120 new churches have been founded in the North East of England since 1980. Of these, around 40 are based in minority ethnic communities. The new churches represent a major new feature on the religious landscape of the North East. Their existence indicates that the regions of England are seeing some of the new church activity that has been noted in London in the work of Peter Brierley and Andrew Rogers. The prominence of black and minority ethnic communities amongst the new churches shows that the North East (and the North East church) is significantly more diverse than is often assumed. The final report for the project will be issued in September 2015. For more information about the project, go to:

http://community.dur.ac.uk/churchgrowth.research/research/new-churches-in-the-north-east

Self-supporting ministers

A survey of 296 self-supporting ministers in four Church of England dioceses (Bristol, Gloucester, Lichfield, and Worcester) has revealed significant sources of frustration among them, including the fact that nearly half feel they are seen as ‘second-class’ by their stipendiary colleagues. Full results are not yet available online, but a summary of the research can be found in the Church Times at:

http://www.churchtimes.co.uk/articles/2015/15-may/news/uk/ssms-survey-finds-joy-tempered-by-frustrations

Posted in Ministry studies, News from religious organisations, Religion and Politics, Religion in the Press, Survey news | Tagged British Election Study, CAFOD, church growth, Church of England, Church Times, climate change, Eurobarometer, general election, honesty, Linda Woodhead, Lord Ashcroft, Methodist MPs, Methodist Recorder, North East England, Opinium Research, religious extremism, religious leaders, Roman Catholics, self-supporting ministry, The Observer, The Tablet, TNS UK, voting, YouGov | 1 Comment

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