News |

Exploring Religious Data in the British Social Attitudes 2014 Survey

Posted on October 15, 2015 by Ben Clements

The latest British Social Attitudes 2014 survey has recently been released via the UKDS, which holds all of the other surveys in the BSA series (as well as the data having being added to the online British Social Attitudes Information System). This post explores religious data available in the 2014 survey.

Religious Belonging

The BSA has asked a question on (current) religious affiliation in every survey conducted since 1983. The figures from the 2014 survey are similar to those obtained in recent years. Around half said they had no affiliation (49%), while those with an affiliation divided into Anglicans (18%), Catholics (8%), other Christian (17%: consisting of 5% with a specific affiliation and 12% with no denominational affiliation), and those belonging to some other religion (8%).

The full set of data on religious affiliation, covering 1983 onwards, is shown in Figure 1, visualised in an area chart which displays the proportion within each of the five categories across time. Noticeable are the clear decline in the proportion affiliating as Anglican (40% in 1983); the growth in the proportion identifying with some other religion (3% in 1983); and the steady increase in those with professing no affiliation – often labelled ‘religious nones’ (32% in 1983). The proportion self-identifying as Catholic was 10% in 1983.

Not shown on the chart but also an important aspect of change in religious belonging is the shift within the other Christian category: those who identify as such but without any specific denominational tradition have become a greater share of this group over time, with a decreasing proportion professing a clear denominational association – in particular, with the Nonconformist churches. The proportion identifying as Christian with no specific denominational allegiance was just 3% in 1983 while those with a denominational allegiance comprised 14%. The proportion in the other Christian category has remained static over time, but there has been considerable change within. Whereas in 1983 self-identification as Anglican was more than twice the level found for other Christian (excluding Catholics), in 2014 the levels are almost identical.

Figure 1: Religious Affiliation in Britain, 1983-2014

Source: BSA surveys.

The BSA surveys have since 1991 asked about the religion (if any) that a respondent was brought up in. In 2014, 30% of respondents said they had been raised as Church of England/Anglican, 15% as Roman Catholic, 27% were raised in some other Christian tradition, with 9% brought up in some other religious faith. Nearly a fifth said they were not raised within a religious faith (19%). Back in 1991, when the question was first asked, the proportions were somewhat different. Well over half (57%) reported being raised as Church of England/Anglican, 14% as Roman Catholic, over a fifth within some other Christian tradition (22%), and 3% within a non-Christian faith. Just 6% said they were not brought up within a religious faith – a figure which has therefore tripled over recent decades. The proportion saying they were raised as Anglican / Church of England has therefore nearly halved over this period.

Religious Behaviour

The BSA surveys have also asked questions on religious behaviour, including on a regular basis about religious attendance and – in 2004 and 2014 – about membership of religious organisations and churches. Data on attendance and membership broken down by affiliation are shown, respectively, in Tables 1 and 2. Church attendance is divided into three categories: frequently (once a month or more often); infrequently (less often than once a month); never attends.

Table 1 shows that, across the categories, regular attendance is least common amongst Anglicans (18%) and much more common amongst Catholics (40%), other Christians (34%), and particularly those belonging to other religions (62%). Data from the 1983 survey show that, similarly, Anglicans were least likely to report being regular-attenders (18%), compared to other Christians (47%) and Catholics (55%). Infrequent attendance is most prevalent amongst Anglicans and they are also most likely to say they never attend services (beyond special occasions). Those belonging to other religions are least likely to report that they never attend services – less than a fifth. Splitting the other Christian category into those with and without a specific denominational affiliation, the latter group have reported higher levels of regular attendance. In 1983, 52% of those with a denomination affiliation said they attended frequently compared to 22% of those with no denomination. Three decades later, this difference is still evident: 48% of those with a denominational affiliation say they attend church regularly compared to 29% of those with no denominational allegiance.

Table 1: Attendance at religious services, by religious affiliation

	Anglican (%)	Catholic (%)	Other Christian (%)	Other religion (%)
Frequently	18	40	34	62
Infrequently	30	26	26	21
Never	52	34	40	17

Source: BSA 2014 survey.

Question wording: ‘Apart from such special occasions as weddings, funerals and baptisms, how often nowadays do you attend services or meetings connected with your religion?’

Overall, the proportions belonging (actively or otherwise) to a religious organisation or church fell somewhat over the decades, from 35% to 26%. Those who used to belong comprised 24% and 25% in, respectively, 2004 and 2014. The proportion saying they had never belonged to such a group rose from just over two-fifths to nearly half.

Table 2 reports data based on affiliation from the 2014 survey. Anglicans are least likely to say that they are active within a group (29%), with active participation most evident amongst Catholics (32%). Catholics are also most likely to say that they are inactive members of a group. Overall, around two-thirds of Catholics belong to a group, compared to two-fifths of Anglicans, and around half of other Christians and those from some other religion. Anglicans and those from other religions are most likely to say they have never belonged to a church or religious organisation. Dividing the other Christian category into those with and without a denominational affiliation again shows a clear difference in levels of involvement. Of those with some form of denominational affiliation, around two-third either actively or passively belong to a church or religious organisation, considerably higher than the two-fifths of non-denominational Christians who say they do so.

Table 2: Belongs to a religious organisation or church, by religious affiliation

	Anglican (%)	Catholic (%)	Other Christian (%)	Other religion (%)
Belong, actively participate	19	32	27	26
Belong, don’t actively participate	20	34	21	22
BELONG	39	66	48	48
Used to belong	24	21	31	15
Never belonged	36	13	21	37

Source: BSA 2014 survey.

Question wording:

‘About belonging to different kinds of groups or associations. Do you belong and actively participate; belong but don’t actively participate; used to belong but do not any more; or have never belonged to – a church or other religious organisation?’

Social Attitudes

The BSA surveys also ask a range of question probing social and political attitudes, which can be examined on the basis of religious belonging or behaviour. Two such examples are used here: same-sex equality and tolerance for religious extremists.

In overall terms, opinion in favour of marriage equality for same-sex couples has increased markedly over time: from 13% in 1989 to 49% in 2007, and settling at around three-fifths in more recent surveys. Table 3 reports the proportions agreeing that gays and lesbians should have the right to marry, based on religious affiliation. The proportions agreeing with the statement have risen considerably over time. Even so, on each occasion, those with no affiliation are most likely to agree with same-sex marriage (increasing from 20% in 1989 to 74% in 2014). While very small proportions of Anglicans, Catholics and other Christians agreed in in 1989, about a half did so in 2014. The proportions in agreement amongst those from non-Christian religions are clearly lower (33% in 2014), although it should be noted that they obviously represent small proportions of the BSA survey samples.

Table 3: Percent agreeing that gays and lesbians should have the right to marry, by religious affiliation

	1989 (%)	2007 (%)	2012 (%)	2013 (%)	2014 (%)
Anglican	10	32	43	46	49
Catholic	14	57	48	56	53
Other Christian	6	40	49	44	52
Other religion	–	33	36	23	33
No religion	20	60	70	69	74

Source: BSA surveys. Combines ‘strongly agree’ and ‘agree’.

Question wordings:

1989: ‘Do you agree or disagree that … Homosexual couples should have the right to marry one another.’

2007-2014: ‘How much do you agree or disagree that … gay or lesbian couples should have the right to marry one another if they want to.’

Finally, Table 4 reports attitudes towards a question asking about religious extremists being allowed to hold public meetings asked in the 2004 and 2014 surveys. In overall terms, attitudes on this question have hardened over time: in 2014, the proportion thinking religious extremists should (definitely or probably) be allowed to hold public meetings is 23%, lower than the 33% expressing the same view in 2004. The same is also the case for each group based on religious affiliation. In general, around a fifth to a quarter think they should be allowed in 2014, with large majorities against – highest at 78% of Anglicans. In 2004, the proportions in favour were in the range of 29-40%, with smaller – but still clear – majorities opposed (with the exception of other Christians, at 49%).

Table 4: Attitudes towards religious extremists being allowed to hold public meetings, by religious affiliation

	Anglican (%)	Catholic (%)	Other Christian (%)	Other religion (%)	No religion (%)
2014
Should definitely or probably be allowed	19	21	20	22	25
Should probably or definitely not be allowed	78	70	73	70	69
Don’t know	3	9	7	9	6
2004
Should definitely or probably be allowed	33	29	40	33	31
Should probably or definitely not be allowed	61	65	49	67	63
Don’t know	6	6	11	0	6

Source: BSA surveys.

Question wording: ‘There are a number of groups in society. Should religious extremists be allowed to hold public meetings?’.

BRIN readers might be interested in earlier posts which used BSA survey data to look in more detail at affiliation and attendance – both levels of change overall and variation across social groups:

http://www.brin.ac.uk/news/2015/socio-demographic-groups-and-religious-affiliation-in-britain/

http://www.brin.ac.uk/news/2014/changes-in-attendance-at-religious-services-in-britain/

Posted in Research note, Survey news, Uncategorized, visualisation | Tagged British Social Attitudes, British Social Attitudes Surveys, British society, Christianity, Christians, church attendance, Church of England, gay rights, group membership, Non-Denominational Christians, Religious Affiliation, religious attendance, religious belonging, religious extremism, Roman Catholics, same-sex marriage, social attitudes, Survey Data | 1 Comment

Muslim Stories and Other News

Posted on October 11, 2015 by Clive D. Field

Yearbook of Muslims in Europe

One important international reference work which BRIN has hitherto failed to mention in our regular round-ups of British religious statistical news is Yearbook of Muslims in Europe (ISSN 1877-1432), published by Brill since 2009 with Jørgen Nielsen as editor-in-chief. The core component of each volume is a country-by-country survey of the situation of Muslims throughout Europe, defined in its broadest sense. The most recent edition (Vol. 6), published towards the end of 2014 and reviewing developments in 2013, covers 45 countries. There is a chapter on the UK by Dilwar Hussain (pp. 625-48) which briefly mentions the results of the 2011 official census of religious affiliation (p. 625) and of opinion polls among and about Muslims (pp. 646-7). The first three volumes also included research articles and book reviews, but these have now migrated to Brill’s Journal of Muslims in Europe. Unfortunately, doubtless reflecting its high cost, there are relatively few UK holding libraries for the Yearbook of Muslims in Europe. Anybody interested in finding locations should consult the online catalogue COPAC for details.

Regulating supplementary religious schools

Prime Minister David Cameron’s commitment, made in his recent speech to the Conservative Party conference, to regulate supplementary religious schools (such as Islamic madrassas) seems to have gone down well with most of the electorate, according to a Survation poll for the Huffington Post UK. The Government intends to consult on making these institutions in England register with the Department for Education and become subject to a light-touch inspection regime, closure being the promised fate of those found to be teaching intolerance. In the poll, conducted online on 7 October 2015 among 1,031 adult Britons, 62% endorsed Cameron’s plans, including 70% of over-55s and 77% of Conservative voters, while 13% were opposed and 24% undecided. Data tables were published on 8 October at:

http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/Cameron-Speech-Poll-Tables.pdf

Muslims in the labour market

British Muslims are proportionately less well represented in top managerial and professional jobs than any other religious group. They are also disproportionately likely to be unemployed and economically inactive, and to have the lowest female employment participation rate of all religious groups. So claim Louis Reynolds and Jonathan Birdwell in their Rising to the Top, a new research report from think-tank Demos, based upon a review of the academic literature and secondary analysis of data from the census, Labour Force Survey, Higher Education Statistics Agency, Universities and Colleges Admissions Service, and other sources. Demographic, cultural, and other factors contributing to Muslim under-representation are explored, and a series of recommendations made to help redress it. Although the official launch of the report is not until 21 October 2015, the text is already available online at:

http://www.demos.co.uk/project/rising-to-the-top/

Travel to Islamic countries

A ‘summer of discontent’ has transformed the travel plans of Britons, according to a press release from travel deals company Travelzoo on 1 October 2015 and based on a survey among 2,000 UK adults by Censuswide in September 2015. The Islamist terrorist attack on British tourists in Tunisia, the migrant crisis, and the disruption at the Channel Tunnel/Eurostar are causing us to rethink where to holiday in future. Over half (54%) of respondents admitted that the events in Tunisia had put them off holidaying anywhere abroad, while 75% said that they would actively avoid all Islamic countries as destinations in future. Less than 1% would be prepared to visit Tunisia, even if the Government travel ban is lifted in the next few months. The press release is at:

http://press.travelzoo.com/summer-of-discontent-has-transformed-britains-travel-habits

Islamic State (1)

A trio of online polls of adult Britons by YouGov on behalf of YouGov@Cambridge, and published on 2 October 2015, has explored public attitudes to British involvement in military action against Islamic State (IS) in three Middle Eastern countries. Fieldwork was conducted on 4-5 August in the case of Iraq (n = 1,707), 5-6 August about Libya (n = 1,972), and 24-25 September about Syria (n = 1,646). A few topline results are tabulated below, with the full data tables available under ‘Latest Documents’ on the YouGov@Cambridge website at:

https://yougov.co.uk/cambridge/

Approval (%) of these British actions against IS	In Iraq	In Libya	In Syria
Air strikes by RAF planes	57	53	59
Air strikes by aerial drones	60	56	66
Missile strikes from Royal Navy ships	52	48	56
Sending heavy weapons to local forces	41	36	39
Sending small arms to local forces	42	37	42
Sending regular UK troops	29	28	30
Sending UK special forces to fight	50	45	51
Sending UK special forces to rescue hostages	67	58	67
Sending UK military advisers to local forces	62	55	57

It will be seen that there is marginally more public appetite to engage IS in Iraq and Syria than in Libya, and that past reservations about involvement in Syria have weakened. British air strikes against IS, whether by plane or drone, find majority support in all three theatres of conflict, but there is some reticence about supplying military hardware to local armies to help them fight IS. The deployment of British ground troops appeals to under one-third, but there are fewer concerns about committing special forces in an offensive or hostage-rescue context.

Islamic State (2)

Notwithstanding serious tensions between Russia and the West elsewhere in the world, 59% of Britons would approve of Anglo-American co-operation with Russian military forces in the fight against IS, support peaking among men (72%) and UKIP voters (75%). This is according to a YouGov poll published on 1 October 2015 for which 2,064 adults were interviewed online on 29-30 September, presumably mostly before news broke of the start of Russian air strikes against IS in Syria. Significantly fewer (38%) are willing for Britain and the USA to work with President Bashar al-Assad of Syria against IS, with disapproval running close on 32% and as many as 30% undecided. Endorsement of RAF participation in air strikes against IS in Syria has risen to 60%, three points more than at the beginning of July, with only 20% opposed. However, the potential deployment of ground troops against IS in Iraq continues to divide public opinion, with two-fifths in favour and the same proportion dissenting. YouGov’s own analysis of the survey, with a link to the data tables, is at:

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2015/10/01/cooperation-russia-syria/

Sociology of prayer

Two of the eleven research chapters in A Sociology of Prayer, edited by Giuseppe Giordan and Linda Woodhead (Farnham: Ashgate, 2015, xiv + 239pp., ISBN 9781409455851, paperback, £19.99) offer quantitative and qualitative content analyses of prayer requests in the British context. Tania ap Siôn, ‘Prayer Requests in an English Cathedral and a New Analytic Framework for Intercessory Prayer’ (pp. 169-89) reports on 1,658 prayer requests left at the shrine of St Chad in Lichfield Cathedral in 2010. Peter Collins, ‘An Analysis of Hospital Chapel Prayer Requests’ (pp. 191-211) considers 3,243 requests from chapels in two Middlesbrough acute hospitals over the period 1995-2006. More details about the volume, including ‘look inside’ previews, available at:

http://www.ashgate.com/isbn/9781409455851

Congregational bonding social capital

A seven-item measure of congregational expressions of Robert Putnam’s theory of bonding social capital is proposed and empirically tested (on 23,884 adult churchgoers in the Church of England Diocese of Southwark) in Leslie Francis and David Lankshear, ‘Introducing the Congregational Bonding Social Capital Scale: A Study among Anglican Churchgoers in South London’, Journal of Beliefs & Values, Vol. 36, No. 2, 2015, pp. 224-30. The research data support the internal consistency reliability and construct validity of the scale. No significant differences in congregational bonding social capital were found between the sexes, but levels did increase with age and frequency of church attendance. Previous attempts to develop measures of congregational bonding social capital are also briefly reviewed. Access options to the article are outlined at:

http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/13617672.2015.1041786

Pastoral Research Centre publications

On 2 October 2015 the Pastoral Research Centre Trust, which undertakes socio-religious research into Roman Catholicism in England and Wales with particular reference to statistical sources, posted on its website an up-to-date list of its own reports and those of its predecessor, the Newman Demographic Survey (1953-64), the latter documents only declassified by the Catholic Church in recent years. These publications provide a much sounder basis for the quantification of the Catholic community during the past half-century than the data to be found in successive editions of the Catholic Directory. The list can be found on the Trust’s homepage at:

http://www.prct.org.uk/

Education and secularization

In our post of 12 June 2015, we highlighted an article by James Lewis in Journal of Contemporary Religion in which, utilizing census data from Anglophone countries, he reasserted the thesis that higher education appears to have a secularizing effect. That article has now elicited a response from David Voas: ‘The Normalization of Non-Religion: A Reply to James Lewis’, Journal of Contemporary Religion, Vol. 30, No. 3, 2015, pp. 505-8. In it Voas reiterates his own previous argument, that religious ‘nones’ are becoming normalized in their characteristics. He suggests that the approach adopted by Lewis, a cross-sectional snapshot of the whole population undifferentiated by age together with an over-dependence on write-in replies which are the census exception rather than the rule, misses the generational dynamics of religious change. His own analysis of the 2011 census for England and Wales, one of the sources drawn upon by Lewis, demonstrates that, whereas older ‘nones’ are more educated than Christians of the same age, younger ‘nones’ have fewer qualifications than their Christian counterparts. Access options to the Voas article are outlined at:

http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/13537903.2015.1081354

Scottish Gaelic and religion

On 30 September 2015 the Scottish Government published a report and data tables relating to the results of the Scottish Gaelic questions in the 2011 Scottish census. Five data tables give breaks by religion for Scottish Gaelic for the population aged 3 and over. They are:

AT 250 2011 – Gaelic language skills by religion (council areas)
AT 251 2011 – Gaelic language skills by religion (civil parish bands)
AT 275 2011 – Use of Gaelic language at home by religion (council areas)
AT 276 2011 – Use of Gaelic language at home by religion (civil parish bands)
AT 277 2011 – Gaelic language skills by religion by age (Scotland)

These tables can be accessed, in Excel format, under the ‘language’ heading of the 2011 Scottish Census Data Warehouse at:

http://www.scotlandscensus.gov.uk/ods-web/data-warehouse.html#additionaltab

The national-level picture by religion from AT 250 2011 is summarized in the table below. It will be seen that relatively few Scots, just 57,600, now speak Gaelic and that those who do are disproportionately from Protestant denominations other than the Church of Scotland (although they equate to only one in seven Gaelic speakers in Scotland, two-fifths of whom affiliate to the Church of Scotland).

% across	Speaks Gaelic	Does not speak Gaelic
Total	1.13	98.87
Roman Catholic	1.02	98.98
Church of Scotland	1.36	98.64
Other Christian	2.94	97.06
Other religion	0.98	99.02
No religion	0.69	99.31
Religion not stated	1.09	98.91

Jewish grandparents

In anticipation of the Jewish festival of Sukkot and UK Grandparents Day (4 October 2015), World Jewish Relief recently commissioned Survation to conduct a telephone poll of self-identifying Jews in Great Britain about grandparents and grandchildren. Unsurprisingly, Jewish grandparents overwhelmingly said they would like to see more of their grandchildren, 92% ideally at least fortnightly, although in practice fewer (70%) saw them that frequently, while nearly one in five saw them less than a few times each year. One-third of Jewish grandchildren aged 18 and over also reported seeing their grandparents a few times a year or less. The principal information about the survey currently in the public domain is a press release dated 1 October 2015 from World Jewish Relief at:

https://www.worldjewishrelief.org/news/sukkot-offers-grandchildren-chance-to-reunite-with-grandparents/

Posted in church attendance, News from religious organisations, Religion and Politics, Religion and Social Capital, Religious Census, Religious prejudice, Survey news | Tagged bonding social capital, census of population, Censuswide, Church of England, David Cameron, David Lankshear, David Voas, Demos, Diocese of Southwark, foreign travel, grandchildren, grandparents, Huffington Post UK, Iraq, ISIS, Islamic countries, Islamic State, James Lewis, Jews, Jonathan Birdwell, Jorgen Nielsen, Journal of Beliefs and Values, Journal of Contemporary Religion, labour market, Leslie Francis, Libya, Louis Reynolds, madrassas, Muslims, Newman Demographic Survey, Pastoral Research Centre, Peter Collins, prayer, Religious Affiliation, religious nones, Roman Catholic Church, Scotland, Scottish Gaelic, supplementary religious schools, Survation, Syria, Tania ap Sion, Travelzoo, Tunisia, World Jewish Relief, Yearbook of Muslims in Europe, YouGov, YouGov@Cambridge | Leave a comment

Talking Jesus and Other News

Posted on September 22, 2015 by Clive D. Field

Talking Jesus

Newly-published research from the Barna Group on behalf of the Church of England, Evangelical Alliance, and HOPE throws light on perceptions of Jesus, Christians, and evangelism among UK and English adults. Fieldwork was conducted by ComRes on 12-29 July 2015 among a representative sample of 3,014 UK adults aged 18 and over (including 2,545 in England) plus a booster sample of 1,621 practising Christians (1,592 in England). The UK cross-section comprised 58% self-identified Christians and 42% who were not (one-half of whom were atheists or agnostics). Under one in six of the Christians (10%) were practising, as defined by praying, reading the Bible, and attending church services at least monthly. Copies of the questionnaire (for the cross-section), executive summary of the main report (for England), a booklet Talking Jesus: Perceptions of Jesus, Christians, and Evangelism in England, and presentations of results both for the UK and England are available to download at:

http://www.talkingjesus.org/research/downloads.cfm

Three-fifths (61%) of UK adults thought Jesus was a real person who actually lived. The proportion fell to 57% of under-35s and non-practising Christians and rose to 79% of ethnic minority respondents. A further 22% of the entire sample considered Him a mythical or fictional character, and 17% were undecided. The number believing Jesus was God in human form who lived in the first century was much lower (22%), the alternative propositions that He was a prophet or spiritual leader but not God or that He was a normal human being and not God being subscribed to by 29% and 17% respectively. Two-fifths believed in Christ’s resurrection from the dead, 17% in a literal sense as related in the Bible (including 52% of black adults) and 26% more figuratively, while 14% explicitly rejected the resurrection, the remainder being uncertain or denying that Jesus was real. The commonest words used to describe Jesus were: for all adults – spiritual (49%), loving (48%), and peaceful (47%); and for practising Christians – loving (93%), wise (88%), and inspirational (88%).

Two-thirds (67%) of UK non-Christians said that they knew a practising Christian, three-quarters of them as a family member (35%) or friend (38%). Among non-Christians knowing Christians, 64% rated the latter as friendly, 52% as caring, 46% as good humoured, and 39% as generous, but some more negative qualities of Christians were also identified, including narrow-minded (13%), hypocritical (10%), uptight (7%), and homophobic (7%). Some two-fifths (38%) of non-Christians claimed to have had a conversation with a Christian about Jesus, but only about one-fifth of them reacted positively to the experience, 60% being uninterested in knowing more about Christ. For their part, the overwhelming majority of practising Christians (85%) felt a responsibility to talk to non-Christians about Jesus, 52% saying that they were always looking for opportunities to do so, and 66% that they had done so within the past month. However, only 19% of non-practising Christians regarded evangelism as their responsibility, and 40% did not feel comfortable talking to non-Christians about Jesus.

The survey also explored the personal faith journey of practising Christians. Nearly all (93%) said that they had been a Christian for 11 years or more. Just 15% reported one sudden decision to becoming a Christian (akin to conversion), while 18% recalled several key decisions, 23% described a journey over time, and 42% attributed their faith to growing up in a Christian family. Besides nurture in a Christian home other positive influences on their faith included attending church services (29%), reading the Bible (28%), and conversations with a Christian they knew well (27%). Non-practising Christians were much more likely to highlight the importance of growing up in a Christian family (72%) as the principal factor in their faith journey.

Transforming Scotland

In our post of 6 September 2015, we flagged up another recent publication by the Barna Group: Transforming Scotland: The State of Christianity, Faith, and the Church in Scotland (ISBN 978-0-9965843-0-2, £30, inclusive of postage, order via Barna’s online store). A copy of this 175-page book is now to hand, and we tabulate below a selection of findings from one of the main elements of the research, an online survey by ComRes of 1,019 Scots on 9-16 June 2014. The questionnaire is somewhat eclectic and imbalanced, shaped by the Protestant evangelical ethos which imbues Barna. The whole book is also inadequately contextualized, both historically and in terms of awareness of other contemporary sources, especially academic ones. The bibliography of secondary research is pitiful and omits any reference to the writings of Callum Brown and Steve Bruce.

% down	All	Men	Women	18-24	25-44	45-54	55+
Regular church attendance
As a child	61	59	62	45	51	70	70
As a teenager	21	23	19	4	16	20	30
As an adult	13	12	13	1	6	14	21
Never	31	33	29	54	41	24	18
Private Bible reading
Never	63	60	66	62	70	64	57
Less than once a year	17	18	16	12	15	14	22
Less than once a week	13	15	11	16	8	17	13
Weekly or more often	7	7	7	11	6	6	9
Bible literalism
Actual word of God	3	3	3	5	3	3	2
Inspired word of God	26	25	27	31	22	28	27
Not inspired by God	16	17	16	8	14	18	21
Just another book of teachings	41	45	36	42	44	39	38
Attitudes to Christianity
Favourable	55	54	56	50	47	56	63
Unfavourable	27	32	24	35	32	21	24
Importance of religious faith in personal life
Yes	29	28	29	31	23	27	33
No	61	63	58	58	64	59	60
Contemporary Scotland
Christian nation	31	36	26	25	25	32	38
Secular nation	19	21	18	22	20	20	18
Post-Christian nation	17	20	14	27	15	14	16
Nation in spiritual transition	15	17	14	14	15	15	16

Scottish Referendum Study

Preliminary analysis of the results of the second (post-vote) wave of the Scottish Referendum Study, for which 3,700 Scots aged 16 and over were interviewed online by YouGov on 22-26 September 2014, indicates that the majority of Catholics (58%) voted in favour of Scottish independence in the referendum on 18 September 2014, as did 52% of religious nones, whereas the majority of Protestants (60%) opposed it, including 81% of Anglicans. Headline data (differing slightly from those presented by the Scottish Referendum Study team six months ago) were reported by the BBC on 18 September 2015 at:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-glasgow-west-34283948

Organ donation

Within three months Wales will become the first UK home nation where there will be a legal presumption of consent to donate organs after death unless a clear objection to do so has been registered. According to a survey by ICM Unlimited, and carried out among 4,042 adults on 29-31 July and 21-23 August 2015, 62% of Britons support this new legislation in Wales and only 20% oppose it. However, opinions vary by religious profession, the extremes of endorsement apparently being from 64% of atheists or agnostics down to 34% of Muslims. A similar range of attitude was found in response to the question about extending the Welsh opt-out policy for organ donation to the rest of the UK, which was backed by 51% of all Britons but by 55% of atheists or agnostics and 28% of Muslims. No data tables are available in the public domain, the foregoing information appearing in a press release by ICM on 9 September at:

http://www.icmunlimited.com/media-centre/blog/wales-opts-in-to-organs-will-the-rest-of-the-uk-follow

Measuring religious affiliation

Clive Field’s article on ‘Measuring Religious Affiliation in Great Britain: The 2011 Census in Historical and Methodological Context’, Religion, Vol. 44, No. 3, 2014, pp. 357-82 is now freely available in PDF and HTML formats at:

http://www.tandfonline.com/toc/rrel20/44/3

Islamic State

British attitudes toward military action against Islamic State (IS) in the Middle East have hardened slightly in the past two and a half months, according to a YouGov poll for The Times on 15-16 September 2015, for which 1,649 adults were interviewed online. Approval of RAF participation in air strikes against IS in Syria is up two points, to 59% (including seven in ten Conservative and UKIP voters), while disapproval is down two points, to 19%. A plurality (40%) approves the deployment of British and American ground troops in Iraq to help combat IS, peaking at 47% of men and UKIP voters, with disapproval at 36%, down three points on July. Data tables are at:

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/0f34cl5n9e/TimesResults_150916_Corbyn_W2.pdf

A second YouGov poll, for The Sunday Times, revisited the matter of air strikes within the context of a series of questions about the emerging policies of the new Labour Party leader, Jeremy Corbyn. The sample comprised 1,601 Britons interviewed online on 17-18 September 2015. Asked whether they supported ruling out British participation in air strikes against IS, only 22% did so, with 56% opposed, disproportionately Conservative and UKIP voters (72% each), men (67%), and over-60s (64%). Even a plurality of Labour voters (40%) was opposed to their leader’s stance. Data tables are at:

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/i41vkd4xdd/SundayTimesResults_150918_Website.pdf

Posted in church attendance, News from religious organisations, Religion and Politics, Religious beliefs, Religious Census, Survey news | Tagged Barna Group, Bible, Christianity, Christians, church attendance, Church of England, Clive Field, ComRes, Evangelical Alliance, evangelism, HOPE, ICM Unlimited, importance of religious faith, Islamic State, Jesus Christ, non-Christians, organ donation, practising Christians, Religious Affiliation, Scotland, Scottish Referendum Study, Sunday Times, Syria, The Times, YouGov | Leave a comment

People Power and Other News

Posted on September 6, 2015 by Clive D. Field

People power

Opinium Research recently completed a major investigation into people and power, in partnership with DHA Communications. Online interviews were conducted with 2,147 UK adults between 21 and 25 August 2015, the data tables extending to 563 pages. These are available via the link at:

http://ourinsight.opinium.co.uk/survey-results/people-and-power-country-demanding-change

Although religion was not a specific focus of the enquiry, religious affiliation was one of the background variables used to analyse replies to all the mainstream questions, albeit cell sizes were only meaningful for two religious groups: nones (n = 911) and Christians (n = 1,071). In many fields, there were few religious differences, but, when it came to the democratic process whereby voters choose the government, nones (possibly in reflection of their comparative youth) were clearly more dissatisfied with current arrangements than Christians or the general public, as the table below shows:

% down	Total	Nones	Christians
Elections in UK are generally free and fair
Agree	56	52	59
Disagree	18	20	16
Way votes translate into House of Commons seats is democratic
Agree	27	22	28
Disagree	39	45	35
UK voters generally get government they want
Agree	32	25	36
Disagree	41	48	36
UK election system better than any of alternatives
Agree	34	26	39
Disagree	29	36	25
UK election system worked in old days of two big parties but now out-of-date
Agree	52	55	50
Disagree	16	15	17
Current system of translating votes to seats is …
Best compromise, leading to stable governments	37	30	43
Unfair and should be reformed to give more seats to smaller parties	42	49	38

The groups also diverged somewhat in respect of issues about which it would be worth the money and time for the UK to hold a referendum, as the next table reveals:

Worth money and time to hold referendum on (%)	Total	Nones	Christians
Whether UK remains part of European Union	58	54	62
Whether to replace House of Lords with elected body	43	45	42
Whether to introduce more representative electoral system	46	50	41
Whether to introduce national/regional/local parliaments in England	40	42	39
Whether to reintroduce death penalty	36	30	42
Whether to abolish monarchy and become republic	19	24	13

2021 census

The British Humanist Association (BHA), which was behind a controversial campaign to encourage people to ‘come out’ as religious nones in the 2011 population census, has published its response to the Office for National Statistics’ first consultation on the 2021 census for England and Wales. In it, the BHA reiterates its view that the wording of the census religion question is ‘leading’, recording ‘only very weak cultural affiliation’, and is accordingly unhelpful, indeed misleading, in many contexts. It calls for the question to be rephrased in 2021, from ‘what is your religion?’ to ‘what is your religion, if any?’ It also argues for the inclusion of a second question on religious practice, something along the lines of ‘Do you consider that you are actively practising your religion?’ In these ways, it is affirmed, continuity would be broadly maintained with the 2001 and 2011 census data on religion while avoiding some of the misinterpretations to which they have been subject. See the BHA press release of 28 August 2015 at:

https://humanism.org.uk/2015/08/28/bha-calls-for-better-statistics-on-religion-in-response-to-first-2021-census-consultation/

More on Scottish religion

Further to our post of 30 August 2015, the Barna Group published three days earlier its first major religious research report outside the United States. Commissioned by the Maclellan Foundation, and personally overseen by Barna’s president David Kinnaman, Transforming Scotland: The State of Christianity, Faith, and the Church in Scotland is available to purchase in print and ebook editions for US $40. BRIN has yet to see a copy, but, from the information on Barna’s website, this appears to contain both secondary analysis of existing data and the results of original research. The latter includes an exclusive online survey of religious beliefs and practices of adults aged 18 and over in Scotland undertaken on 9-16 June 2014. Although Scotland is found to be secularizing rapidly, with the majority of self-identifying Christians labelled as ‘legacy Christians’ (who neither believe basic elements of Christian doctrine nor profess personal faith in Jesus), evidence is also presented for ‘vibrant signs of spiritual life and measurable growth’, notably ‘countertrends’ among young adults. There is a particular focus on examples of best ministerial practice, informed by case studies and a second survey of 200 Protestant clergy in Scotland. BRIN obviously needs to reserve judgment on the report until we have obtained a copy, but, for a taster of the research, see Barna’s press release at:

https://www.barna.org/barna-update/culture/730-scotland-lessons-for-effective-ministry-in-a-post-christian-context#.VeWq-stRHX4

Death and the afterlife

No more than 15% of all Britons, and a maximum of 19% in any demographic sub-group, now hold a definite belief in the afterlife, according to an online YouGov poll of 1,770 adults on 16-17 August 2015 and published on 2 September. Even if probable believers (21%) are added, the proportion of believers only reaches 36%, 12% fewer than probable or definite disbelievers (48%), among whom Liberal Democrats (63%), men (57%), and 18-24s (56%) are most numerous. The remaining 15% of adults are unsure. Interestingly, belief or disbelief in an afterlife makes no real difference to people’s fear of dying, just over two-thirds of both groups being scared of death a lot or a little. However, it does correlate a bit with expectations of dying happy (46% among believers in an afterlife and 38% for disbelievers). Asked where, if there were a heaven and hell, they would end up, 48% replied heaven (including 40% of men and 54% of women) while 10% expected to pass through the gates of hell, men and Scots (14% each) and disbelievers in an afterlife (15%) anticipating this fate the most. Almost twice as many believers (65%) as disbelievers (37%) had their eyes set on heaven. Two-fifths of adults were unsure whether it is heaven or hell which awaits them. Data tables are at:

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/zcui1w66ie/Copy%20of%20Opi_InternalResults_150817_Death_R_W_2.pdf

Religion and personal relationships

Just over two-fifths (42%) of people in a relationship are likely to have differences of opinion over religious matters according to a YouGov poll published on 1 September 2015 and undertaken for Relate, Relationships Scotland, and Marriage Care. The sample comprised 6,512 UK adults interviewed online between 27 March and 7 April 2015, 4,664 of whom were in some kind of relationship. Residents of Northern Ireland (65%) were most likely to report religion-related issues in their relationship and Scots the least (38%). As the table below indicates, religious issues were ranked seventh out of eighth overall in terms of relationship differences, albeit the proportion may still seem surprisingly high, given relatively low levels of religiosity. Full data tables are at:

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/secwzqxjxh/RelateResults_Relationships_150407_client_website.pdf

% across	All	Ranked first	Ranked second	Ranked third
Financial issues	64	23	22	19
How to spend leisure time	64	21	22	21
Correct/proper behaviour	59	17	21	21
Decisions relating to children	56	20	18	18
Demonstrations of affection	53	16	20	17
Sex	51	15	16	20
Religious matters	42	20	11	11
Career decisions	41	11	14	16

House of Lords

The House of Lords is now the second largest parliamentary chamber in the world, yet, according to a YouGov poll published on 2 September 2015, Britons still identify some room to improve the representation of professional groups there. In particular, 9% (peaking at 16% of 18-24s) of 1,715 Britons interviewed online on 27-28 August considered there are too few religious leaders in the Upper Chamber, perhaps an implied allusion to the absence of any but senior Anglican bishops. On the other hand, 34% believed the House of Lords already contains too many religious leaders, with UKIP voters (43%), men and over-60s (44%), and Scots (45%) especially feeling this way. The remainder of the sample judged the number of religious leaders about right (19%) or were undecided (38%). Of the eight other professions mentioned, between 8% of the public (in respect of scientists) and 60% (for politicians) sensed they are over-represented, and from 3% (for politicians) to 42% (for service personnel) discerned there is an under-representation of professions in the House of Lords. Full data tables are at:

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/3tckzosgsa/InternalResults_150901_Lords_Website.pdf

Posted in News from religious organisations, Religion and Politics, Religious beliefs, Religious Census, Survey news | Tagged afterlife, Barna Group, British Humanist Association, death, democratic process, DHA Communications, House of Lords, Maclellan Foundation, Marriage Care, Opinium Research, power, Relate, relationships, Relationships Scotland, Religious Affiliation, religious census, religious leaders, Scotland, YouGov | Leave a comment

Scottish Religion and Other News

Posted on August 30, 2015 by Clive D. Field

Scottish religion

The continuing decline of religion in Scotland is documented in two publications from the Scottish Government this month. The first, published on 26 August 2015, is Scotland’s People Annual Report: Results from the 2014 Scottish Household Survey, based on interviews with 9,800 adults in private households in Scotland. The question on religious affiliation revealed that 47% of Scots professed to have no religion in 2014, 7% more than in 2009. There has been a corresponding reduction in affiliation to the Church of Scotland over this five-year period, from 34% to 28%. Other categories in 2014 were: Roman Catholics 14%, other Christians 8%, and non-Christians 3%. The report is available at:

http://www.gov.scot/Publications/2015/08/3720/downloads

The other publication, released on 20 August by the National Records of Scotland, was Vital Events Reference Tables, 2014, showing, inter alia, the mode of solemnization of marriage in Scotland. Results are tabulated below, with comparisons for 2004 (the year before ceremonies by humanist celebrants were permitted) and 2009. It will be seen that civil marriages now account for the majority, that the Church of Scotland has lost half its market share in the space of ten years, and that one-quarter of ‘religious’ ceremonies are now conducted by humanist celebrants. Full details are at:

http://nationalrecordsofscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/vital-events/general-publications/vital-events-reference-tables/2014/section-7-marriages-and-civil-partnerships

Form of marriage ceremony, % down	2004	2009	2014
Civil	49.5	51.7	51.6
Church of Scotland	29.6	22.3	15.5
Roman Catholic	6.1	6.5	5.3
Other religious (excluding humanist)	14.9	13.9	14.1
Humanist	0.0	5.6	13.5

Committed Christians and moral issues

Committed Christians remain more conservative on moral issues than the British public but less than might be expected, according to an analysis of YouGov Profiles data published on 27 August 2015. The sample of committed Christians (1,707 Protestants, apparently Anglicans, and 863 Catholics) comprised members of YouGov’s online panel who both identified as Protestant or Catholic and strongly agreed with the statement that ‘my faith is important to me’. As the table below indicates, so-called ‘religious Catholics’ are more likely to favour same-sex marriage than ‘religious Protestants’, whereas for the legalization of assisted dying the position is reversed, with majorities of both groups wanting to see restrictions on abortion tightened. YouGov’s blog is at:

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2015/08/27/profile-catholic-protestant-issue/

% down	Religious Catholics	Religious Protestants	British public
Same-sex marriage
Support	50	45	66
Oppose	40	47	22
Assisted dying
Support	42	59	79
Oppose	48	33	13
Abortion
More restrictions	69	56	29
No more restrictions	17	27	47

Evangelicals and British values

The September-October 2015 issue of Idea: The Magazine of the Evangelical Alliance exclusively reveals the results of the Alliance’s online polling earlier in 2015 of a self-selecting sample of 1,730 self-identifying UK evangelicals on the subject of ‘British values’, a subject of ongoing political debate. Respondents were asked about the attributes which they judged important for being truly British, with ‘to be a Christian’ ranked only seventh on 43%, albeit 19% more than for all Britons as recorded in the British Social Attitudes Survey. Top of the list for evangelicals were ‘to respect Britain’s political institutions and laws’ (96%) and ‘to be able to speak English’ (95%), much the same priorities as for the general public. Although 93% of evangelicals thought that, historically, British values have been strongly shaped by Christianity, only 31% considered they were today, with 79% agreeing that the state’s view of British values is based on secularism rather than Christianity. Notwithstanding, 71% believed the Government right in principle to try to define and promote British values. Just 18% of evangelicals regarded Britain as a Christian country. Seemingly by way of illustration, they identified many negative traits in the population at large, notably consumerism (65%), obsession with celebrity (58%), and sexual licence/promiscuity (51%). The article can be found at:

http://www.eauk.org/idea/british-values.cfm

Jews and Jeremy Corbyn

British Jews tend not to be natural Labour Party supporters (only 14% of them voted for it at this year’s general election), but two-thirds (including three-fifths of Jewish Labour voters) are apparently viewing with some apprehension the prospect that Jeremy Corbyn may be elected the next Labour leader. This is according to a telephone poll of 1,011 self-identifying Jews conducted by Survation on behalf of the Jewish Chronicle on 17-19 August 2015, the headline results of which were published in that newspaper on 21 August. More than four-fifths of Jews were concerned about reports that Corbyn had referred to Hezbollah and Hamas as his friends, and about allegations that he had donated money to an organization run by Holocaust denier Paul Eisen. Seven in ten thought that politicians such as Corbyn who described themselves as anti-Zionist were in reality often or always anti-Jewish. Full data tables, including breaks by gender, age, region, and voting, are at:

http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/Jewish-Chronicle-Poll-August-19th4.pdf

BBC Radio 4 programmes

Programmes on religion are the least listened to genre of programming on BBC Radio 4, according to a survey of 601 medium to heavy Radio 4 listeners in the UK interviewed online by ICM Unlimited on behalf of the BBC Trust between 23 February and 10 March 2015. Just 15% claimed to listen to religious programmes, the lowest proportion of the eight categories investigated, the list being headed by news programmes (88%) and current affairs programmes (87%). Moreover, programmes on religion received the lowest ratings of the same eight categories, only 63% of their listeners evaluating them as good against 90% for listeners of news programmes. Data are extracted from ICM’s report on the survey and available at:

http://downloads.bbc.co.uk/bbctrust/assets/files/pdf/our_work/speech_radio/research_report.pdf

GCSE O Level results

Provisional results for the June 2015 GCSE O Level examinations in England, Wales, and Northern Ireland were published by the Joint Council for Qualifications on 20 August 2015. Those for Religious Studies (RS) are tabulated below, with comparisons for 2005. It will be seen that the number of students taking either the full or the short course in RS has fallen by 3% over the decade, a modest decrease when set against that of 13% for all subjects (or 8% for full courses alone). Moreover, this net figure disguises a doubling in entries for the full course in RS and a two-thirds reduction in candidates for the short course, which is equivalent to half a GCSE, in line with the progressive disappearance of short courses in general. For both short and full courses there has been a decennial increase of 3% in the proportion of male students taking RS, contrasting with the continuing preponderance of females at A Level RS. Full results can be found at:

http://www.jcq.org.uk/examination-results/gcses

GCSE RS O Level	2015	2005	% change
Full course
All entries	295,730	147,516	+100
% female candidates	54	57	-3
% with A*-C grades	72	69	+3
Short course
All entries	91,476	253,423	-64
% female candidates	48	51	-3
% with A*-C grades	58	54	+4
Full and short course
All entries	387,206	400,939	-3

Anglican clergy career patterns

The career paths of Anglican clergy are affected by their gender, age, and type of theological training. So concludes Kelvin Randall in his ‘Twenty Years On: The Continuing Careers of Anglican Clergy’, Theology, Vol. 118, No. 5, September-October 2015, pp. 347-53. He tracked, by means of Crockford’s Clerical Directory, the subsequent careers of those ordained to the stipendiary ministry of the Church of England or Church in Wales in 1994 (the year in which women were first ordained as priests in the Church of England). The three factors analysed especially affected the proportion still working as stipendiary clergy in 2014. The article appears in a subscription-based journal, and access options are outlined at:

http://tjx.sagepub.com/content/118/5/347.abstract

Church of England cathedral statistics

Church of England cathedral statistics for 2014 were published on 19 August 2015. Including Westminster Abbey (a royal peculiar), the touristic appeal of English cathedrals remains impressive, visitor numbers exceeding 10 million. In terms of worship services, Christmastide continues to be the biggest draw, with 630,600 people attending during Advent and 124,800 on Christmas Eve or Christmas Day, including 32,300 communicants. Easter attendees were 53,100, among them 27,100 communicants, with a further 89,300 attendees in Holy Week. Average weekly attendance was 36,600, 22% more than in 2004, the growth being in weekday rather than Sunday congregations (albeit they were down on 2013 levels). The full report is available at:

https://www.churchofengland.org/media/2279215/2014cathedralstatistics.pdf

Living with cancer

Older people living with cancer do not receive much in the way of religious or faith-based support, nor would they find it particularly useful. This is according to a report from Ipsos MORI on 24 August 2015, for which 1,004 people aged 55 and over in Britain who had received a diagnosis of cancer at any stage in their lives were interviewed online on 6-13 May 2015 on behalf of Macmillan Cancer Support. Only 12% of this sample reported that they had received religious or faith-based support for their cancer, the eighth in a list of sources of support headed by information and advice (53%). Over-75s were twice as likely as those aged 55-64 to claim to have received religious or faith-based support, 19% against 10%. Asked which types of assistance they would find most useful, religious or faith-based support dropped even lower, to eleventh place for the 55-64s, being preferred by 9% of that cohort and 13% of over-75s. When the health chips are down, apparently, religion is a consolation for only a small minority. The report can be found at:

https://www.ipsos-mori.com/Assets/Docs/Publications/SRI_Health_Macmillan_Older_People_August_2015.pdf

Posted in church attendance, Ministry studies, News from religious organisations, Official data, Religion and Politics, Religion in public debate, Rites of Passage, Survey news | Tagged abortion, assisted dying, BBC Radio 4, BBC Trust, British values, cancer, Cathedrals, Church of England, Evangelical Alliance, evangelicals, faith-based support, ICM Unlimited, Ipsos-MORI, Jeremy Corbyn, Jewish Chronicle, Jews, Joint Council for Qualifications, Kelvin Randall, Labour Party, Macmillan Cancer Support, marriage, National Records of Scotland, O Levels, Protestants, Religious Affiliation, religious broadcasting, religious studies, Roman Catholics, same-sex marriage, Scotland, Scottish Government, Scottish Household Survey, stipendiary clergy, Survation, theology, YouGov | Leave a comment

Trustworthiness of Clergy and Other News

Posted on August 13, 2015 by Clive D. Field

Trustworthiness of clergy

Clergy occupy the middle ground of professionals in terms of their perceived trustworthiness, according to two Opinium Research surveys published on 12 August 2015, for which representative samples of adults were interviewed online in the UK as a whole (12-16 June 2015, n = 2,002) and London (12 June-3 August, n = 1,001). The aim of the investigations was to test the public standing of the police, but 11 other groups (including clergy) were used as comparators. Majorities in both the UK (59%) and London (53%) regarded the clergy as very or quite trustworthy, with 28% and 31% respectively deeming them not very or not at all trustworthy. Nationally, the most adverse views of clergy were held by the 18-24s (37%) and ethnic minorities (40%). Summary data are tabulated below, with full results available via the links at:

http://ourinsight.opinium.co.uk/survey-results/brits-untrusting-police

% very/quite trustworthy	UK	London
Nurses	86	83
Doctors	85	84
Teachers	80	79
Armed forces	75	70
Judges	68	65
Police	65	60
Clergy	59	53
Accountants	56	55
Lawyers	52	47
Broadsheet journalists	25	36
Politicians	16	20
Tabloid journalists	13	16

Predicting Anglican extinction

The Church of England’s statistical fortunes may be none too healthy, overall, but it is still likely to see out the present century, just about, according to John Hayward, writing on the blog of the Church Growth Modelling project on 8 July 2015. On present evidence, he predicts, by means of linear regression and extrapolation, that the extinction date for the Church of England will be 2100 in terms of its attendance or 2082 as regards its membership. By contrast, three of its sister Anglican Churches are projected to die out long before that on an index of membership, assuming constant death rates: 2043 in the case of the Church in Wales and Scottish Episcopal Church and 2055 for the Episcopal Church of the USA. Hayward’s data and interpretations are set out at:

http://churchgrowthmodelling.blogspot.co.uk/2015/07/anglican-church-decline-in-west-data.html

In a subsequent blog, dated 3 August 2015, Hayward suggests some potential ‘advantages’ of the Church of England which may explain why it faces a slower extinction than the other three Churches. See:

http://churchgrowthmodelling.blogspot.co.uk/2015/08/anglican-church-decline-in-west.html

National Survey for Wales

On 7 August 2015 the UK Data Service released as SN 7767 the dataset for National Survey for Wales, 2014-15, the third in the series. Commissioned by the Welsh Government, face-to-face and self-completion interviews were conducted by TNS-BMRB and Beaufort Research between April 2014 and March 2015 with 14,285 adults aged 16 and over resident in private households in Wales. Although the questionnaire contained no specific component on religion or morality, a background question on ‘what is your religion?’ was asked. This naturally enables breakdowns of replies by religion for all the topics which were explored in the survey, focusing especially upon wellbeing and attitudes to public services. The catalogue entry for the dataset, with links to technical and other documentation, is at:

http://discover.ukdataservice.ac.uk/catalogue/?sn=7767&type=Data%20catalogue

A Level results

The June 2015 GCE A Level provisional results for England, Wales, and Northern Ireland were published by the Joint Council for Qualifications on 13 August 2015. In terms of Religious Studies (RS), there were 25,773 entries, 6% more than in 2014 and 53% more than in 2005. RS remains a relatively gendered examination choice, with 69% of candidates being female, compared with an average of 55% for all subjects. The overall pass rate for A Level RS in 2015 was 99%, one point more than for all subjects combined, 80% obtaining a grade of A*-C. There were also 40,067 entries for an AS Level in RS. Much more detail is available at:

http://www.jcq.org.uk/examination-results/a-levels

Religion of FCO staff

The Foreign and Commonwealth Office (FCO) Diversity and Equality Report, 2014-15, published on 31 July 2015, included details of the religious profession of its UK-based staff. Of the 42% who were willing to make a declaration, 43% identified as Christians, 33% as agnostics or atheists, 7% as non-Christians, with 17% preferring not to say. The overall (relatively low) declaration rate fir religion was the same as for disability and sexual orientation. The report is at:

https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/450587/FFFCO827_Equality_Report_2015_v5.pdf

London mayor

The London Mayoral election may not be until 5 May 2016, but the political parties are in the midst of selecting their preferred candidates to represent them. According to a YouGov poll for LBC Radio published on 13 August 2015, for which 1,153 Londoners were interviewed online on 10-12 August 2015, Muslim candidates could find themselves at a disadvantage (Syed Kamall still being in the chase for the Conservative nomination and Sadiq Khan for the Labour one). Asked whether they would be comfortable in a member of several groups becoming the next Mayor of London, only 55% of the public said they would be comfortable with a Muslim mayor, compared with 90% for a woman, 76% for an ethnic minority person, and 71% for a homosexual. Just under one-third (31%) replied they would be uncomfortable with a Muslim mayor, rising to 39% of Conservatives, 49% of over-60s, and 73% of UKIP voters. Data tables are at:

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/2vpf4yt9ve/LBCResults_London_trackers_Mayor_tubestrike_150812_W.pdf

Islamic State

More than two-thirds (68%) of adults in the UK think the European Union (EU) has responded badly to the success of Islamic State (IS), more than ten times the number (6%) who believe that it has handled the matter well. These are much the same results as the average for all seven Western European countries in the survey, 67% and 5% respectively, the other nations being France, Germany, Italy, The Netherlands, Portugal, and Spain. Fieldwork was conducted by Opinium Research for Cambre Associates among an online sample of 7.017 adults, including 1,005 in the UK, between 29 June and 10 July 2015. Majorities in both the UK and all seven countries as a whole also judged the EU to have badly handled three other current international issues: refugees arriving from Syria, the Greek debt crisis, and the conflict in Ukraine. Data tables were published on 11 August at:

http://ourinsight.opinium.co.uk/sites/ourinsight.opinium.co.uk/files/op5154_opinium_pr_european_union_-_tables.pdf

Posted in Ministry studies, News from religious organisations, Official data, Religion and Politics, Religious prejudice, Survey news | Tagged A Levels, Beaufort Research, Cambre Associates, church growth, Church of England, clergy, diversity, European Union, examinations, Foreign and Commonwealth Office, Islamic State, Islamophobia, John Hayward, Joint Council for Qualifications, LBC Radio, London, London mayoral election, Muslims, National Survey for Wales, Opinium Research, professions, Religious Affiliation, religious studies, TNS-BMRB, trustworthiness, YouGov | Leave a comment

A Baker’s Dozen of Religious Statistics

Posted on August 1, 2015 by Clive D. Field

Civil and religious marriages

A press release from the University of Oxford on 21 July 2015 highlighted the relentless decline in the number of marriages in England and Wales which are legally solemnized in religious ceremonies. They now account for just 30% of the total, although this figure excludes civil marriages which are followed by a service in a place of worship that carries no legal recognition; this is widely the case with marriages for Muslims and Sikhs. The fall in religious ceremonies, which can be traced back to the 1970s, has been especially pronounced since the passage of the Marriage Act 1994, which permitted marriages in ‘approved premises’ (such as hotels, castles, and stately homes). Until the Act came into effect, the majority of first marriages for both partners were still religious ceremonies. The new research is based on an analysis of official data on the solemnization of marriages, from the beginning of civil registration in the early Victorian era, undertaken by John Haskey, formerly of the Office for National Statistics. It will be published in full next month in Haskey’s chapter entitled ‘Marriage Rites: Trends in Marriages by Manner of Solemnisation and Denomination in England and Wales, 1841-2012’ in Marriage Rites and Rights, edited by Joanna Miles, Perveez Mody, and Rebecca Probert (Hart Publishing, ISBN 9781849469135, paperback, £35). The volume will also contain three other chapters on the religious aspects of marriage. In the meantime, the University of Oxford’s press release can be read at:

http://www.ox.ac.uk/news/2015-07-21-just-one-three-weddings-england-and-wales-has-religious-ceremony

Babies in the 2011 census

In the latest post on the Nonreligion and Secularity Research Network blog, dated 25 July 2015, Katherine Sissons examines the religion assigned to babies and young children (aged 0-4) in England and Wales in the 2011 census. She notes that males in this age group were 1% less likely than females to be returned as Christian and 1% more likely to be described as having no religion. She speculates about the possible reasons for this and about the potential impact on the balance between religiosity and non-religiosity in the next generation. However, she rather assumes that the assignment of religion to children is some kind of joint decision of parents completing the census schedule. In fact, many if not most questions on the form will have been answered by a single individual on behalf of the whole household, whose members – whether adults or children – may or may not have been consulted in detail about the proposed replies. Other generic issues, not mentioned by the author, are that religion was not stated for 1% more children (under 16 years) than adults (8% against 7%) and that 6% more children (30% versus 24% for adults) were declared as having no religion. It is possible that, in the case of children, some informants may have been using the latter category, not according to its literal meaning, but to denote that their offspring were too young to be religiously classified and that this was a matter about which their children had to make up their minds when they were older. After all, two-thirds of babies are no longer baptised in the UK, so, at least so far as Christianity is concerned, formal links with faith do not commence early in life. The post is at:

http://blog.nsrn.net/2015/07/25/what-religion-is-your-baby-2/

Importance of religion

The latest Eurobarometer (wave 83.3), conducted by TNS for the European Commission in the 28 member states of the European Union (EU) in May 2015, has confirmed that, relatively speaking, religion remains an insignificant personal value. Asked to choose, from a list of 12 values, the three which were most important to them as individuals, only 5% in the UK selected religion, which was also the EU average (with just six countries recording a double-digit figure). Respect for human life was the top personal value in the UK (41%), closely followed by human rights and peace (each on 38%). Religion also scored poorly as a force for creating a feeling of community among EU citizens (7% in the UK, 8% in the EU) and as a value best representing the EU itself (3% in both the UK and EU). Topline results can be found in T123-T128 at:

http://ec.europa.eu/public_opinion/archives/eb/eb83/eb83_anx_en.pdf

Religious affiliation

Three recent published surveys by ORB International, conducted among a merged sample of 6,107 adults interviewed online on 19-21 June, 10-12 July, and 24-26 July 2015, reveal the current level of religious affiliation in Britain. The question asked was: ‘Which of the following religious groups do you consider yourself to be a member of?’ This is a form of questioning which, through its reference to ‘membership’, is felt likely to discourage some of the most nominal identification with religion. In reply, 52% of Britons professed themselves Christian, 7% non-Christian, and 38% as of no religion, with 2% preferring not to say.

Religious broadcasting

Figures published on 16 July 2015 in the Government’s Green Paper on the renewal of the BBC Charter superficially reveal a reduction in the amount of the Corporation’s religious programming during recent years, from 181 hours on network television in 2006 to 157 in 2014, and from 1,084 hours on radio in 2006 to 592 in 2014. However, some of the difference may be attributable to a change in the BBC’s classification scheme over this period. The Green Paper is at:

https://www.gov.uk/government/consultations/bbc-charter-review-public-consultation

Ministerial stress

Stress in the Christian ministry has been in the news recently following the suspected stress-related suicide of Revd Christopher Loveless, an Anglican vicar. His plight is by no means atypical, if the findings of a survey conducted by Oasis UK among a self-selecting sample of 200 ministers and church leaders are anything like representative. Although 86% of respondents described their ministry as very or quite rewarding, 71% found their role very or quite stressful, 65% reported that it had put strain on their marrage or equivalent relationship, while 64% felt incredibly pushed for time and struggled to get everything done. Over two-fifths sensed that their church members had little or no understanding of the pressures they were under. Indeed, they could make the situation worse, 76% of ministers acknowledging that church members regularly behaved rudely or aggressively toward them. A news release about the survey is at:

http://www.oasisuk.org/news/church-leadership-stress-places-%E2%80%98significant-strain%E2%80%99-marriages

Church of England (1): diversity

Further to our reference on 19 July 2015 to the preliminary results of the Church of England’s ‘Everyone Counts’ diversity audit in 2014, the Church has now felt it necessary to issue a public apology for failing to include any question about the sexual orientation of its congregations in the audit. The statement, released on 24 July, is at:

https://www.churchofengland.org/media-centre/news/2015/07/statement-on-‘everyone-counts’-survey.aspx

Church of England (2): finance

Finance Statistics, 2013 for the Church of England (excluding the Diocese of Europe) were published on 30 July 2015. Following three years of parish deficits in 2007-10, mirroring the national economic recession, the financial situation is now improving in absolute terms. A surplus of £33 million was reported in 2013, with income of £953 million (the highest total ever recorded) surpassing expenditure of £920 million. The latter figure was 1.0% down on 2012, reflecting cost reductions, while income rose by 2.6% overall and by 4.5% from the average individual tax-efficient planned giver. However, income is continuing to fall in real terms, and there was a decrease of 2.8% in the number of regular donors. The report is at:

https://www.churchofengland.org/media/2265027/2013financestatistics.pdf

British Humanist Association membership

Organized irreligion may be suffering from the same ageing membership as is to be found in many traditional Churches, if new research from Gareth Longden is anything to go by: ‘A Profile of the Members of the British Humanist Association’ [BHA], Science, Religion & Culture, Vol. 2, No. 3, June 2015, pp. 86-95. The article derives from a questionnaire completed by 1,097 members of the BHA in March-May 2014, just under one-tenth of the organization’s total membership and slightly more than half those invited to participate. Comparisons are made with an earlier membership survey carried out by Colin Campbell in 1964, shortly after the BHA was formed. In 2014 65% of BHA members were aged 50 and over, against 38% fifty years before. In consequence 37% were already retired in 2014, compared with only 14% in 1964. The BHA remained disproportionately male, albeit less so than in 1964 (65% versus 73%). The BHA also lived up to its reputation for being a ‘middle class intelligentsia’, with 82% of members in 2014 in possession of an undergraduate or postgraduate degree and the overwhelming majority in professional or managerial occupations, especially in education and information technology. Spatially, humanists were concentrated in the South of England, notably in London and the South-East. The article is available on an open access basis at:

http://smithandfranklin.com/journal-details/Science-Religion-and-Culture/9/archive/2015/June

Jewish social care

The Jewish population of the UK may only have numbered 270,000 in 2011, but there are no fewer than 549 social care organizations and 702 social care facilities and services to meet their needs. Even after stripping out small operations to support the economically deprived in the haredi community, there still remain 70 organizations and 205 facilities or services. This is according to preliminary findings from an audit of Jewish social care undertaken by the Institute for Jewish Policy Research (JPR) on behalf of the Jewish Leadership Council, and released on 23 July 2015. Indeed, in Jewish communities experiencing population decline there was evidence of a possible over-supply of social care provision. On the other hand, in JPR’s estimation, insufficient effort is being devoted to poverty prevention among UK Jews. For more information, see the blog by Jonathan Boyd at:

http://www.thejlc.org/2015/07/mapping-social-care-organisations-and-facilities-in-the-uk-jewish-community/

Anti-Semitic incidents

On 30 July 2015 the Community Security Trust (CST) published a report on Antisemitic Incidents, January-June 2015 in the UK, noting that the number during this period was, at 473, 53% more than during the first six months of 2014. The increase was most pronounced during the first quarter of 2015 and is mainly attributed by the CST to improved notification of incidents, due to raised concerns about anti-Semitism in the Jewish community following the terrorist attacks in Paris and Copenhagen. The report is at:

https://cst.org.uk/public/data/file/0/e/Incidents_Report_-_Jan-June_2015.pdf

Islamic State (1): flag

Just over three-quarters (77%) of the public want to see the display of the Islamic State (IS) flag banned in Britain, according to a YouGov poll conducted online among 1,669 adults on 9-10 July 2015 and published on 19 July. The proportion rises to 84% among residents of Northern England, 87% of Conservatives, and 88% of UKIP voters and over-60s. Just 15% think the IS flag should not be banned, peaking at 25% of 18-24s. Similar results were obtained for a question on the prohibition of the display of the Nazi swastika in Britain, 75% being in favour and 17% against. In the United States, where the First Amendment protects freedom of speech, there is lower but still majority backing for banning the display of the IS flag (63%) and swastika (57%). More details, including links to data tables, can be found in the blog at:

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2015/07/19/ban-isis-flag-american-and-british-public/

Islamic State (2): escalating UK military actions

Two recent polls have probed public opinion on the possible escalation of UK military action against IS in the light of an anticipated House of Commons debate on the subject next month. The first, by ORB International and conducted online among a sample of 2,049 Britons on 24-26 July 2015, revealed 67% support for an extension of UK air strikes against IS in Iraq and Syria, including 76% of over-65s. Fewer (41%) endorsed the commitment of UK ground troops and tanks, with 59% opposed, reaching two-thirds among women and the over-55s. Data tables are at:

http://www.opinion.co.uk/perch/resources/julypoll.pdf

The second survey, by ComRes for the Daily Mail, was conducted by telephone interview with 1,001 Britons, also on 24-26 July 2015. Its focus was specifically on possible British military intervention against IS in Syria. There was majority support (56%, with 33% opposed) for air strikes against IS in Syria but reluctance (41% in favour, 49% against) to engage British troops in Syria. Almost two-fifths (38%) agreed, while 49% disagreed, that Britain should not become militarily involved in Syria but should stand back and let the situation there run its course. However, few considered that British military action against IS in Syria would materially improve prospects. Asked whether it would make places safer or more dangerous, just 16% felt the streets of Britain would be safer, 19% tourist beaches in North Africa, 21% the Middle East generally, and 27% the situation on the ground in Syria itself. Two-fifths (39%) thought the streets of Britain would become more dangerous as a result of British military action against IS in Syria. Data tables are at:

http://comres.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/Daily-Mail_Political-Poll_July-2015.pdf

Posted in Ministry studies, News from religious organisations, Official data, Religion and Politics, Religion and Social Capital, Religious Census, Religious prejudice, Survey news | Tagged air strikes, Anti-Semitism, babies, BBC, British Humanist Association, Church of England, Community Security Trust, ComRes, Daily Mail, Eurobarometer, European Union, finance, flag, Gareth Longden, ground troops, humanists, importance of religion, Institute for Jewish Policy Research, Iraq, Islamic State, Jewish Leadership Council, Jewish social care, Jews, John Haskey, Jonathan Boyd, Katherine Sissons, marriages, ministerial stress, Nonreligion and Secularity Research Network, Oasis UK, ORB International, Religious Affiliation, religious broadcasting, religious census, Science Religion and Culture, sexual orientation, Syria, TNS, values, YouGov | Leave a comment

Mid-Year Round-Up

Posted on June 30, 2015 by Clive D. Field

Immigration and the religious landscape

Were it not for immigration, the speed of secularization in England and Wales might have been even faster. That is one gloss that could be put on a report from the Office for National Statistics on 18 June 2015: 2011 Census Analysis: Ethnicity and Religion of the Non-UK Born Population in England and Wales. For the proportion of UK-born residents professing no religion in 2011 was, at 27%, almost double the figure among the non-UK-born (14%). However, the situation appears to be changing and, for those arriving in the UK between 2007 and 2011, it was 17%. Also, although there were 3,567,000 foreign-born Christians in England and Wales in 2011, they still accounted for a minority of all immigrants, so their numbers alone could not offset the largely intergenerational process of disaffiliation from Christianity which is at work among the native-born. Some media coverage of the report, as in the Daily Telegraph for 19 June 2015, p. 6 (‘migrants are mainstay of Christian faith’), is therefore rather misleading. In relative terms, Sikh immigration has fallen continuously since 1981, and even Muslim immigration has tailed off somewhat since the Millennium, albeit non-UK-born Muslims still outnumber the UK-born. Summary data are tabulated below. Fuller information can be found in 2011 Census Tables DC2207EW (country of birth by religion by sex) and CT02652011 (country of birth by year of arrival by religion) which can be accessed via the links embedded in the report at:

http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/dcp171776_407038.pdf

% down	UK-born	Non-UK-born: total	Non-UK-born: 2007-11 arrivals
No religion	26.9	13.8	16.9
Christian	61.1	47.5	47.5
Buddhist	0.2	2.0	2.8
Hindu	0.6	7.3	7.2
Jewish	0.4	0.7	0.6
Muslim	2.6	19.0	16.3
Sikh	0.5	2.4	1.2
Other religion	0.4	0.6	0.4
Not stated	7.3	6.7	7.1

Predicting the demise of British Christianity

Writing in The Spectator on 13 June 2015, and projecting forward on the basis of evidence from the census of population and sample surveys, Damian Thompson suggested that 2067 will be the year in which the profession of Christianity will finally disappear from the British Isles, with Anglicanism set to vanish in 2033. See:

http://www.spectator.co.uk/features/9555222/2067-the-end-of-british-christianity/

Ramadan (1): knowledge of

We are mid-way through the Islamic holy month of Ramadan, which, in terms of fasting, began on 18 June 2015. To mark the event, and the launch of the broadcaster’s ‘My Ramadan’ mini-season, BBC Religion and Ethics commissioned an opinion poll from TNS among a sample of 2,036 Britons aged 16 and over. It revealed that, although the majority of the public agrees that cultural diversity is a positive thing, only 52% claim to have a clear understanding of what Ramadan is about, falling to 43% among over-65s. A plurality believes that it is just devout Muslims who do not eat or drink anything during the daylight hours of Ramadan. No data tables for the survey are in the public domain, but the BBC press release of 18 June can be read at:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/mediacentre/latestnews/2015/my-ramadan

Ramadan (2): retail value of

‘Ramadan spurs increase in grocery sales’, Retail Week reported on 23 June 2015. ‘UK’s largest supermarkets have seen a rise in sales because of the holy month of Ramadan, with the Islamic festival becoming the most important retail event after Christmas and Easter. The Big Four [supermarkets] are expecting sales to increase by about £100m over the next month as the UK’s three million Muslims embark on fasting.’

Combating Islamic State

Two-thirds of 999 Britons interviewed by telephone on behalf of the Pew Global Attitudes Project on 8-28 April 2015 approved of the US-led military action being taken against Islamic State (IS) in Iraq and Syria, with one-fifth opposed and 15% undecided. The level of support was lower than in several other Western countries such as France (81%), US (80%), Australia (77%), Italy (70%), and Spain (67%) and in Middle Eastern nations such as Israel (84%), Lebanon (78%), and Jordan (77%). However, approval of US President Barack Obama’s handling of IS was higher in Britain (43%) than the US (40%), with disapproval at 37% and 54% respectively. For the Pew topline report, released on 23 June 2015, see:

http://www.pewglobal.org/files/2015/06/Balance-of-Power-Report-FINAL-June-23-20151.pdf

Anti-Semitism

The UK’s Jewish population is far more fearful of Islamist extremists (61%) than it is of neo-Nazis (16%), according to a new Survation poll for the Jewish Chronicle, conducted predominantly by telephone among 1,023 members of a pre-recruited adult Jewish panel between 17 and 23 June 2015. The remainder fear neither or are undecided. A majority of Jews (72%) is opposed to anti-Semitic groups being allowed to stage peaceful demonstrations in Jewish areas, with only 22% in favour, while 62% support Jews holding counter-demonstrations to anti-Semitic rallies (with 29% against). Data tables, disaggregated by gender, age, and region, are available at:

http://survation.com/?attachment_id=8032

The context of the survey is an imminent planned protest by far-right activists in Golders Green, London against the alleged ‘Jewification’ of the area. However, the Jewish Chronicle’s headline about the poll (‘Ban Golders Green Rally, Say 72 Per Cent’) is somewhat misleading since respondents were not specifically asked whether that particular event should be banned.

History of Church of England finance

An important new book by Sarah Flew brings the tools of accountancy and financial management to bear on the history of the Established Church in England, not so much in the round as through a case study of the funding of home missionary organizations in the Diocese of London during the late Victorian and Edwardian eras. Philanthropy and the Funding of the Church of England, 1856-1914 (London: Pickering & Chatto, 2015, xv + 251p., ISBN 9781848935006, hardback, £60, with ebook editions for £24) is based on a wide range of hitherto little-used archival and other primary sources, and includes a good dose of tables. Flew charts the progressive decline in Christian philanthropy and its connection with secularization. More information is available at:

https://www.pickeringchatto.com/titles/1783-9781848935006-philanthropy-and-the-funding-of-the-church-of-england-1856-1914

Britain’s Last Religious Revival?

Apologies for the plug, but prospective purchasers of my new book on the statistics of religious change in Britain between 1945 and 1963 (mentioned in my BRIN post of 8 March 2015) may like to know that, for a limited period (until 29 February 2016), copies can be bought by individuals direct from the publisher at a 30% discount.

Just quote ‘PM15THIRTY’ when ordering the book from the Palgrave Macmillan website at http://www.palgrave.com/page/detail/britain-s-last-religious-revival–clive-d–field/?sf1=barcode&st1=9781137512529 or via email to orders@palgrave.com.

For full terms and conditions applicable to the discount, see:

http://www.palgrave.com/page/Palgrave-discount-codes-terms-and-conditions/

Posted in Historical studies, Official data, Religion and Politics, Religion in the Press, Religious Census, Religious prejudice, Survey news | Tagged Anti-Semitism, BBC, census of population, Christianity, Church of England, Clive Field, Damian Thompson, Diocese of London, finance, home missions, Immigration, Islam, Islamic State, Jewish Chronicle, Jews, Office for National Statistics, Pew Global Attitudes Project, Ramadan, Religious Affiliation, Sarah Flew, supermarkets, Survation, The Spectator, TNS | Leave a comment

A Fortnight in Religious Statistics

Posted on June 12, 2015 by Clive D. Field

Here are ten religious statistical news stories which have come to BRIN’s attention during the past fortnight.

Religious affiliation: population census (1)

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) has just launched a public consultation around its initial view of the content of the 2021 population census for England and Wales. Responses, which can be either from organizations or individuals, need to be submitted by 27 August 2015. They may cover the full range of consultation topics or just the one(s) of particular concern. With regard to religious affiliation, the intention of ONS is to include a question on a voluntary basis, as in 2001 and 2011. In the interests of comparability, it is reluctant to change the actual wording. The consultation document asks respondents how they currently use the census religion data and what the impact on their work would be if such data were no longer collected. It is hoped that BRIN users would wish to support, by responding to ONS, the continued inclusion of a religion question in the census. More details are available by clicking the ‘complete the survey’ link on the consultation website at:

https://consultations.ons.gov.uk/census/2021-census-topics-consultation

Religious affiliation: population census (2)

Higher education has often been assumed to have a secularizing effect, and the hypothesis is reasserted by James Lewis, ‘Education, Irreligion, and Non-Religion: Evidence from Select Anglophone Census Data’, Journal of Contemporary Religion, Vol. 30, No. 2, 2015, pp. 265-72. Utilizing religious affiliation data from the censuses of Australia in 2006, Canada in 2011, and England and Wales in 2011, he shows that college graduates have an above-average representation among people professing no religion and particularly among atheists, humanists, or agnostics. In England and Wales, for example, 18% of all adults were found to have a bachelor’s or higher degree, but the proportion was 24% for religious ‘nones’, rising to 40% for agnostics, 43% for humanists, and 44% for atheists (the last three categories being write-in replies). For Christians the figure was only 15%. Access options to the article are outlined at:

http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/13537903.2015.1025556#.VXnlYOlRHX4

Religious affiliation: British Social Attitudes

As reported by Dr Ben Clements in his BRIN research note of 3 June 2015, NatCen Social Research has recently updated its religious affiliation trend data from the British Social Attitudes (BSA) Surveys. Statistics are now available for every year between 1983, when BSA commenced, and 2014, except for 1988 and 1992. NatCen concludes that the Church of England’s market share has declined throughout this period and appears to have accelerated during the past decade, both relatively and absolutely. It now claims the allegiance of only 17% of British adults compared with 40% in 1983. Whereas there were 16.5 million adult Anglicans in 1983, there were just 8.6 million in 2014. Roman Catholic allegiance has been much steadier, at around one in ten of the population (or 4 million adults), while the number of non-Christians has quintupled. Those professing no religion have risen from one-third to one-half as a proportion, and, in figures, from 12.8 million in 1983 to 24.7 million in 2014. NatCen’s press release is at:

http://www.natcen.ac.uk/news-media/press-releases/2015/may/british-social-attitudes-church-of-england-decline-has-accelerated-in-past-decade/

Church growth

Towards a Theology of Church Growth, edited by David Goodhew (Farnham: Ashgate, 2015, ISBN 9781472414007, £19.99, paperback) comprises 12 chapters together with a foreword (by the Archbishop of Canterbury) and a conclusion (by the editor). Although numerical growth of the Church (especially of local congregations) is a constant presence in the book, and continues to be regarded as important, the volume is less concerned with statistics (which are remarkably thin on the ground) than with exploring a theology of church growth from the perspectives of the Bible, Christian doctrine, and church history. The historical section contains five essays, ranging from the early Church to Britain from 1750 to 1970, the author of the last (Dominic Erdozain) conceding the reality of church decline while simultaneously proposing ‘a more optimistic account of the Christian ecology of modern Britain’. Further information can be found at:

https://www.ashgate.com/default.aspx?page=637&title_id=19791&edition_id=1209349895&calcTitle=1

Religion and physician-assisted suicide

Thanks are due to Dr Ben Clements for drawing BRIN’s attention to some new research into religion and physician-assisted suicide: Andriy Danyliv and Ciaran O’Neill, ‘Attitudes towards Legalising Physician Provided Euthanasia in Britain: The Role of Religion over Time’, Social Science & Medicine, Vol. 128, March 2015, pp. 52-6. Utilizing evidence from the British Social Attitudes (BSA) Surveys for six data-points between 1983 and 2012, the authors demonstrate statistically significant increased support for the legalization of physician-assisted suicide (for patients suffering a painful and incurable disease) running parallel with growth in indicators of secularization. Multivariate analysis showed that religious affiliation and, more especially, frequency of attendance at religious services were the principal predictors of attitudes to physician-assisted suicide, with support for legalization being greatest among those with least religious commitment. Access options to the article are outlined at:

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0277953614008387

Attitudes to religious groups

A plurality of Britons (40%) has a negative impression of Muslims, almost double the number regarding them positively (22%), with 37% neutral. This is according to a YouGov/Eurotrack seven-nation survey conducted between 20 and 27 May 2015, for which 1,667 Britons were interviewed online. The number viewing Muslims negatively was higher in Britain than in Germany, Norway, and Sweden, the same as in France, but lower than in Denmark and Finland (45%).

Jews, by contrast, were regarded much more favourably, with 41% in Britain having a positive impression (a figure bettered only in Sweden), 50% being neutral and just 7% negative (the smallest number of any of the nations, Sweden excepted). In fact, Christians in Britain had a greater negative rating (11%) than Jews, albeit their positive score was also higher (45%), with 42% neutral to Christians. Danes (47%) held the most positive attitudes to Christians and Norwegians (38%) the least.

A summary of the British data is tabulated below. Results for all seven nations, also covering opinions of five other groups (gypsies, gay people, black people, young people, and the elderly) can be found at:

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/g96awulgzv/Eurotrack_Minorities_W.pdf

Attitudes to … (% down)	Muslims	Jews	Christians
Very positive	6	15	17
Fairly positive	16	26	28
Positive	22	41	45
Neither positive nor negative	37	50	42
Fairly negative	24	6	9
Very negative	16	1	2
Negative	40	7	11
Don’t know	2	2	2

Religious diversity

Somewhat contrary to authorial expectations, practising (churchgoing) Christians are more interested in and more tolerant of other religious groups than nominal Christians or the religiously unaffiliated, according to new analysis of data from the ‘Young People’s Attitudes to Religious Diversity’ project at Warwick Religions and Education Research Unit: Leslie Francis, Alice Pyke, and Gemma Penny, ‘Christian Affiliation, Christian Practice, and Attitudes to Religious Diversity: A Quantitative Analysis among 13- to 15-Year-Old Female Students in the UK’, Journal of Contemporary Religion, Vol. 30, No. 2, 2015, pp. 249-63. The authors interpret their findings to mean that Church teaching and Christian practice are nurturing the development of the UK as a multi-cultural and multi-faith society. Access options to the article are outlined at:

http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/13537903.2015.1026116#.VXntlulRHX4

Evangelicals and poverty

Good News for the Poor? is the latest report from the Evangelical Alliance’s 21st Century Evangelicals series, which commenced in 2011. It is based upon replies by 1,607 self-identifying evangelical Christians to an online survey in November 2014. They were either members of the Alliance’s self-selecting research panel or recruited via open invitation on the Alliance’s website or social media networks; thus, they may not be representative of all evangelicals in the UK. The overwhelming majority of respondents (93%) was found to be in a financially comfortable position themselves (being either wealthy, having no financial worries, or getting by) and, relative to the general public, they tended to have higher than average expectations about ownership of material possessions (except when it came to television). Through their attitudes and actions (charitable giving and volunteering) they mostly recognized the importance of tackling poverty issues and expressed concern about the fall-out from Government welfare reforms. Nevertheless, 71% agreed that spiritual poverty is a bigger problem than material poverty, with 77% saying that, compared with some overseas countries, the UK is spiritually destitute and 66% that Churches in the UK are not very good at evangelizing and discipling the poorest sections of society. The report can be downloaded from:

http://www.eauk.org/church/resources/snapshot/upload/Good-news-for-the-poor-report-pdf.pdf

Sikhs and the general election

In our post of 25 May 2015, we reported on the results of the Survation/British Future poll of the voting of ethnic minorities at the 2015 general election, including breaks by religious groups. The reliability of this survey has subsequently been questioned in various quarters, not least by the Sikh Federation (UK) which has argued that Sikhs were seriously underrepresented in the sample and that the figures given by Survation for Sikh voting (49% Conservative, 41% Labour) were misleading. In an attempt to convey the ‘correct’ picture, the Federation has published the findings of its own post-election survey of the voting of 1,000 Sikh electors in 190 constituencies. This revealed that 50% voted Labour, 36% Conservative (up from 15% in 2010), and 15% for other parties. The Federation’s two press releases on the subject can be found at:

http://dailysikhupdates.com/british-future-survey-challenged-on-how-sikhs-voted-in-uk-elections/

British National Bibliography religion and theology data

Thanks are due to Dr Peter Webster for alerting BRIN to the recent release, by The British Library, of a subset of metadata from the British National Bibliography (BNB) for religion and theology (Dewey Decimal Classification 200-299). The dataset, covering 119,000 monographs and 4,200 serials published in Britain from 1950 to the present, is available for download and reuse on a Creative Commons CC0 1.0 Universal Public Domain Dedication basis. It will permit analysis of trends in religious publishing since the Second World War and can be downloaded from:

http://www.bl.uk/bibliographic/download.html

Posted in Historical studies, Official data, Religion and Politics, Religion and Social Capital, Religious Census, Survey news | Tagged Alice Pyke, Andriy Danyliv, Anti-Semitism, British Library, British National Bibliography, British Social Attitudes Survey, census of population, Christianophobia, Christians, church growth, Ciaran O'Neill, David Goodhew, Eurotrack, euthanasia, Evangelical Alliance, evangelicals, Gemma Penny, general election, higher education, Irreligion, Islamophobia, James Lewis, Jews, Journal of Contemporary Religion, Leslie Francis, Muslims, NatCen Social Research, Office for National Statistics, physician-assisted suicide, poverty, Religious Affiliation, Religious diversity, Sikh Federation UK, Sikhs, Social Science and Medicine, theology, voting, YouGov | Leave a comment

The 2015 General Election: Religious Affiliation and Party Vote Share Across Constituencies

Posted on May 21, 2015 by Ben Clements

As the weekend round-up of religious news on BRIN flagged up, the British Election Study (BES) 2015 has released the first version of the 2015 general election results dataset. This dataset (and the accompanying documentation) can be obtained here. Across parliamentary constituencies, the dataset includes the vote share for each party at the 2015 general election. It also includes religious affiliation data from the most recent English and Welsh census and and Scottish census (2011). The religious affiliation data are available in separate variables measuring the proportion in each of the following categories: Christian, Buddhist, Hindu, Jewish, Muslim, Sikh, other religion, no religion, not stated. Using this dataset we can perform some basic analysis of this aggregate level data – that is, across constituencies – to look at the association between religious affiliation and party vote share at the general election.

The results are reported in the table below. This reports the correlation coefficients for the bivariate associations between three of the religious affiliation indicators (% Christian, % Muslim, % No religion) and four party vote share categories (% Con, % Lab, % Lib Dem and % UKIP). These coefficients indicate the direction and strength of the association between two variables. They can range in value from -1 to +1. A positive value indicates that as one variable increases in value, the other variable also increases in value. A negative value indicates that as the value of one variable goes up, the value of the other variable goes down. The larger the (positive or negative) value, the stronger is the association between the two variables.

When undertaking and reporting this sort of analysis, two points are particularly important to bear in mind. First, as Denver et al (2012), pp. 36-37) make clear, correlation coefficients cannot tell us whether variation in one variable (here, level of religious affiliation) causes the variation in another variable (here, party vote share). They can only show the extent to which two variables are associated – that is, whether they increase or decrease in value together (they are positively correlated); or whether as one increases in value, the other decreases in value (they are negatively correlated)). Secondly, as Denver et al (2012) also caution, given that we are looking at aggregate-level data (based on information pertaining to the constituency-level) we cannot conclude from these data that the same association is present amongst individuals within constituencies (to presume this to be this case would be an ‘ecological fallacy’).

Religious affiliation and party vote share at the 2015 general election: Bivariate correlations

	Party vote share
Religious affiliation	% Conservative	% Labour	% Lib Dem	% UKIP
% Christian	.33	-.27	-.03 (n/s)	.43
% Muslim	-.29	.50	-.10	-.23
% No religion	-.16	-.29	.16	-.14
Number of constituencies	632	631	631	614

Source: British Election Study 2015 Constituency Results.

Note: ‘(n/s)’ indicates a coefficient that is not statistically significant. All other coefficients are statistically significant.

All of the correlation coefficients are statistically significant, with the exception of the association between Christian affiliation and Lib Dem vote share, but their magnitudes clear vary. The correlation coefficients for Christian affiliation indicate that it is positively-associated with Conservative and UKIP vote share and negatively-associated with Labour vote share. The correlation coefficients for Muslim affiliation show negative associations with the vote shares of Conservative, Lib Dem and UKIP, but a positive association with Labour vote share. For no religion, at the constituency level there are negative associations with the vote shares of Conservative, Labour and UKIP and a positive association with Lib Dem vote share. As the magnitudes of the coefficients show, the strongest association is between Muslim affiliation and Labour vote share, and – interestingly – followed by that between Christian affiliation and UKIP vote share (and thus higher than that obtained for Christian affiliation and Conservative vote share).

Finally, it should be noted that variation in other constituency-level indicators – such as socio-economic circumstances or ethnic group composition – is often associated with variation in party vote share.

An analysis of religious affiliation and vote choice at the general election at the individual-level will be posted when suitable BES post-election data become available.

References

British Election Study 2015 Constituency Results.

Denver, D., Carman, C. and Johns, R (2012), Elections and Voters in Britain. 3^rd edition. Basingstoke: Palgrave, pp. 36-37.

Posted in Religion and Politics, Religion in public debate, Research note, Survey news | Tagged British Election Study 2015, General Election 2015, Party Choice, Religion and Politics, Religious Affiliation, religious belonging, Survey Data | Leave a comment

Talking Jesus and Other News

People Power and Other News

Scottish Religion and Other News

Trustworthiness of Clergy and Other News

Mid-Year Round-Up

The 2015 General Election: Religious Affiliation and Party Vote Share Across Constituencies

Recent News

Recent Sources

Archives

Recent Comments

British Religion in Numbers is funded as a British Academy Research Project