Politico-Religious News

Posted on April 21, 2013 by Clive D. Field

Today’s post (the 600th on BRIN in just over three years) examines three newly-released surveys which explore the intersection between religion and political issues.

Same-sex marriage

The Marriage (Same-Sex Couples) Bill for England and Wales has now completed the Committee Stage in the House of Commons and is awaiting a date for Report and Third Reading Stage prior to the measure’s consideration by the House of Lords. Meanwhile, New Zealand last week became the thirteenth country to legislate for same-sex marriage, with a final vote to take place on the issue (and same-sex adoption) in France’s National Assembly next Tuesday.

Christian views on the matter in Britain were openly discussed last Thursday in the fifth of this year’s series of Westminster Faith Debates, and, as with the other debates, the discussion was informed by new survey data from a YouGov poll commissioned by Professor Linda Woodhead and conducted online between 25 and 30 January 2013 among a representative sample of 4,437 adult Britons. The data tables should be posted on YouGov’s public archive site during the next few days, at:

http://yougov.co.uk/publicopinion/archive/

More immediately, there is some coverage of the results (especially as they affect Catholics) in The Tablet for 20 April 2013 (pp. 10 and 30) and also a press release at:

http://www.religionandsociety.org.uk/events/programme_events/show/press_release_do_christians_really_oppose_gay_marriage

Among Britons as a whole, 52% thought that same-sex couples should be allowed to get married, 34% disagreed, and 14% did not know what to think. There were significant differences between people of faith and those without: whereas 69% of those professing no religion favoured same-sex marriage, and only 20% dissented, persons affiliating to a religion evenly split at 43% for and against.

In terms of faith traditions, the greatest opposition to same-sex marriage was to be found with Muslims (59%), followed by Baptists (50%). Hostility also correlated with strength of religious attachment. Thus, it reached above-average levels among those describing themselves as religious (53%), actively practising their faith (46%), definite believers in God or a higher power (48%), also those who said their lives were guided by religious leaders (67%), their religion (58%), religious teachings (56%), or God (54%).

A second question asked respondents whether they felt same-sex marriage to be right or wrong. Among all Britons, 46% said right and 34% wrong, but religious people were more likely to say wrong (44%) than right (37%), while the no religion group was strongly inclined to say right (63% compared with 20% wrong). Muslims (64%), Baptists (55%), and Sikhs (54%) were especially prone to regard same-sex marriage as wrong, as were the self-assessed religious (54%), and those deriving guidance from religious leaders (67%), their religion (59%), religious teachings (58%), or God (57%). Excluding don’t knows, Christians divided 56% wrong and 44% right.

Overall, 44% of Britons disapproved of the opposition to same-sex marriage of the mainstream Christian Churches, with 33% choosing to back the Churches, and 23% uncertain. Hostility to the Churches’ stance against same-sex marriage was notable among Labour and Liberal Democrat voters (54% and 56% respectively), the 18-24s (56%), Scots (52%), degree-holders (54%), those professing no religion (60%), definite disbelievers in God (60%), and those whose lives were guided by science (55%). Agreement with the Churches’ line was concentrated among Conservatives (46%), the over-60s (51%), Baptists (60%), Muslims (52%), the self-styled religious (54%), individuals practising their faith (51%), definite believers in God (50%), and among those guided by religious leaders (65%), their religion (58%), religious teachings (57%), or God (56%).

Notwithstanding a tendency for people of faith to be disproportionately less disposed to same-sex marriage, among Christians who contended that same-sex marriage is wrong only 26% explicitly cited religion or scripture as the basis for their opposition. More common explanations of their position were the assertion that marriage should be between a man and a woman (79%), the claim that same-sex marriage would undermine the traditional family of a mother and a father (63%), and the conviction that it is not the best context in which to bring up children (52%). Christians who regarded same-sex marriage as right viewed the matter in terms of equality (77%) and the non-exclusivity of faithful love to heterosexual couples (70%).

It should be remembered that the fieldwork for this YouGov poll took place immediately before the Second Reading debate on the Bill on 5 February, when the salience of same-sex marriage was very high in respect of public opinion and the media. It is possible that views have shifted somewhat since, because either a) the salience of the issue has dropped, b) the fall-out from the Cardinal O’Brien affair in Scotland has made Church lobbying against the Bill somewhat less credible in England and Wales, or c) some Christians accept the inevitability of the Bill becoming law, given the substantial Commons majority at Second Reading.

On the last point, it is certainly the case that the Churches have had to accommodate themselves to all manner of things over the years which instinctively they did not like the sound of. These include civil partnerships which, however lauded by most Church leaders now (as justification for same-sex marriage not being needed), were widely opposed by people of faith at the time of their introduction.

Politics, ethnicity, and religion

Lord Ashcroft has taken advantage of the forty-fifth anniversary of Enoch Powell’s ‘rivers of blood’ speech on immigration to commission Populus to undertake a survey of black and minority ethnic (BME) opinions on politics and multiculturalism. Telephone interviews were conducted with 1,035 BME Britons aged 18 and over between 22 March and 15 April 2013, comprising 501 Muslims, 150 Hindus, 100 Sikhs, 265 affiliates of other faiths, and a mere 18 persons (2%) professing no religion. Results, with breaks by religion, were published on 19 April in the form of both summary and full tables, available at:

http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/Lord-Ashcroft-Ethnic-Minority-Voters-poll-summary-April-2013.pdf

http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/Ethnic-minority-survey-April-2013-full-tables.pdf

The economic situation was viewed as the most important issue facing the country by most BMEs, including 57% of Muslims, 57% of Hindus, and 60% of Sikhs. Muslims and Sikhs had more confidence in the Labour team (Ed Miliband and Ed Balls) than the Conservative team (David Cameron and George Osborne) to manage the economy, 54% versus 30% for Muslims, and 51% versus 41% for Sikhs. Hindus, by contrast, placed more trust in the Conservative than Labour team (51% compared with 43%). A majority of Muslims (51%) and a plurality of Hindus (45%) and Sikhs (46%) also thought that Labour had the best plans for dealing with Britain’s overall problems.

Majorities of the three religious groups agreed that ‘if you work hard, it is possible to be very successful in Britain, no matter what your background’ (68% of Muslims, 73% of Hindus, and 70% of Sikhs). They also felt that their children’s lives would be better than theirs (57%, 60%, and 62% respectively), and – overwhelmingly – that Britain had become a multicultural nation (88%, 91%, and 88%). The Labour Party and its leader were seen as most supportive of multiculturalism by all three faith communities, followed by the Liberal Democrats, and with the Conservatives last. Most Muslims (62%) and Hindus (55%) had never heard of Enoch Powell, but the proportion was less (38%) for Sikhs, albeit only 40% even of these knew who Powell was and what he had said. Somewhat ironically, 32% of Muslims, 37% of Hindus, and 49% of Sikhs thought immigration into Britain had been ‘a bad thing’.

Jews and the news

The BBC is by far the most important provider of terrestrial television news (88% in the past seven days) and online news (52% in the past seven days) for British Jews, but the vast majority (79%, rising to 93% of Conservative voters) consider BBC news coverage to be biased against Israel (36% heavily so and 43% somewhat). Only 14% regard the coverage as generally balanced. In terms of newspapers, The Times and Sunday Times are the most widely read titles (46% of Jews having read the print version and 23% the online version during the previous week), as was also the case in 1995.

These are among the headlines from a report by the Institute for Jewish Policy Research which was published on 15 April 2013. Coincidentally, they are appearing at the same time as it was announced that James Harding, the Jewish former editor of The Times, has been appointed as the BBC’s new director of current affairs and news. David Graham’s Jews and the News: News Consumption Habits and Opinions of Jews in Britain is available at:

 http://www.jpr.org.uk/downloads/JPR%20Jewish%20news%20media%20report%20final.pdf

As is acknowledged in the introduction, the research now entering the public domain is actually relatively old, being undertaken between 7 January and 14 February 2010 among a self-selecting sample of 4,081 British Jews who completed an online questionnaire hosted by Ipsos MORI. Although the data have been weighted by synagogue membership, secular-religious outlook, and educational attainment, it is conceded that they may over-represent individuals interested in politics and international affairs. BRIN has already covered the first report from the survey (2010), dealing with the attitudes of British Jews toward Israel, at:

http://www.brin.ac.uk/news/2010/jewish-attitudes-toward-israel/

 

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Religion and Voting and Other News

Posted on March 10, 2013 by Clive D. Field

Four stories are covered in today’s BRIN post, including new data on religion and prospective voting behaviour.

Religion and voting

Two new large-scale polls (from YouGov and Populus) shed light on the relationship between religion and voting intentions since UKIP’s emergence as the fourth force in British politics (so clearly demonstrated in the recent Eastleigh by-election). The studies show that prospective voters for the two parties towards the right of the political spectrum (Conservative and UKIP) are more likely to espouse a religion than those towards the left (Labour and Liberal Democrat). Summary results are set out in the table below, percentages reading downwards. 

  All Con Lab LibDem UKIP
YouGov

 

 

 

 

 
No religion

46

40

46

NA

39
Any religion

50

56

50

NA

59
No answer

4

4

4

NA

2
Populus

 

 

 

 

 
No religion

36

28

36

36

31
Any religion

62

71

62

62

68
No answer

2

2

2

2

1

It should be noted that the polls used different measures of religious affiliation, which explains why people of faith were less numerous in one than the other. The YouGov question wording is fairly neutral, making no assumptions about religious affiliation, whereas the Populus one might be considered to be somewhat leading, implying some expectation that respondents will belong to one of the religious groups.

The religious category was sub-divided in the Populus survey, enabling an assessment of the current voting intentions of adherents of the major faiths. The single most striking finding is that the majority (58%) of Muslims now incline to follow Labour, contrasting with the 2010 general election in which around one-third (36%) of Muslims recalled that they had actually voted for Labour, at a time when the party (then in government) was unpopular with Muslims because (especially) of its perceived anti-Islamic foreign policy. Also notable is that 54% of Jews support either the Conservatives or UKIP. Details are below (percentages reading across in this instance):

  Con Lab LibDem UKIP Other/none
Populus

 

 

 

 

 
No religion

18

29

7

7

39
Christian

27

28

6

10

29
Non-Christian

16

36

9

6

33
Muslim

8

58

8

1

25
Hindu

20

39

11

1

29
Jew

42

16

4

12

26
Buddhist

9

27

16

6

42

Source: Online surveys of adult Britons aged 18 and over conducted by a) YouGov throughout February 2013 (n = 28,944), the religious affiliation question being ‘do you regard yourself as belonging to any particular religion?’; and b) Populus for Lord Ashcroft on 22-31 January 2013 (n = 20,022), the religious affiliation question being ‘which of the following religious groups do you consider yourself to be a member of?’

The YouGov data were published on 5 March 2013 and are at:

http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/mse55iouje/UKIP-profile-Feb-2103.pdf

The Populus/Ashcroft data were published on 8 March 2013 and can be found in table 100 at:

http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/LibDem_Poll.pdf

Attitudes to Muslims

British Muslims continue to have a major public image problem, according to two recent polls commissioned by Matthew Goodwin of the University of Nottingham in connection with his Chatham House briefing paper on the English Defence League (EDL). This was published on 6 March 2013 as: The Roots of Extremism: The English Defence League and the Counter-Jihad Challenge.

In the second of Goodwin’s surveys, the proportion of all adult Britons responding to various statements about Muslims was as follows: 

  • 50% anticipated there will be a ‘clash of civilizations’ between British Muslims and native white Britons (26% disagreeing)
  • 44% agreed that free speech in Britain is threatened by the influence of Muslims in the media (32% disagreeing)
  • 43% agreed that differences in culture and values make future conflict between British-born Muslims and white Britons inevitable (28% disagreeing)
  • 31% disagreed that British-born Muslims generally share the culture and values of the majority society (36% agreeing)
  • 30% agreed that British Muslims pose a serious threat to democracy (41% disagreeing)
  • 23% disagreed that Muslims make an important contribution to British society (41% agreeing)
  • 12% disagreed that the vast majority of Muslims are good British citizens (62% agreeing)
  • 12% agreed that British Muslims are part of an international plot to abolish Parliament (54% disagreeing)

Source: Online survey by YouGov of 1,691 Britons aged 18 and over on 20-21 November 2012. Detailed table (with breaks by gender, age, social grade, region, and vote) available at:

http://www.chathamhouse.org/sites/default/files/public/Research/Europe/0313bp_goodwin_dataconflict.pdf

The first poll, likewise by YouGov and conducted online on 21-22 October 2012 among a sample of 1,666 Britons, focused on knowledge of and attitudes to the EDL. But it also posed several additional questions about Islam and Muslims, four of which are worth highlighting: 

  • 63% wanted the number of Muslims coming to Britain to be reduced
  • 57% considered Islam to present a serious danger to Western civilization
  • 52% believed higher Muslim birth rates threaten British national identity
  • 48% argued that Muslims are incompatible with the British way of life

The detailed tables from this poll are available as follows:

a) breaks by general demographics:

http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/nvm151779n/YG-Archive-221012-EDL-National-sample.pdf

b) breaks by general demographics and degree of support for the EDL:

http://www.chathamhouse.org/sites/default/files/public/Research/Europe/0313bp_goodwin_dataissues.pdf

Goodwin’s Chatham House paper is at:

http://www.chathamhouse.org/sites/default/files/public/Research/Europe/0313bp_goodwin.pdf

Islamist terrorism

Britons are somewhat less apprehensive about the threat of terrorism than they were in 2010, on the fifth anniversary of the London bombings. Even so, 44% currently think that a terrorist attack within the UK is very or moderately likely to happen in the next year, while 70% anticipate an incident as deadly as the 2005 London bombings occurring during their lifetimes. The source of the threat is most widely perceived to be al-Qaeda and ‘other Islamic-based terrorist groups’, with 68% currently concerned about them compared with 3% for residual terrorist groups in Northern Ireland. Anxiety about Islamist terrorism builds steadily with age, from 50% of the 18-34s to 81% of the over-55s, but otherwise varies little by key demographics.   

Source: Online survey by Angus Reid Public Opinion among 2,013 Britons aged 18 and over on 26-28 February 2013. Report and full data tables published on 4 March 2013 and available at:

http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/48686/fears-of-an-imminent-terrorist-attack-subside-in-britain/

Flesh and blood

Regular churchgoers in the UK are more likely to have given blood than the general public, according to new research. Whereas 9% of the former say they have given blood during the last year, no more than 4% of all adults have given blood in the past two years. Moreover, 33% of regular churchgoers claim to have registered as a blood donor (apparently with no statistically significant differences by denomination, gender, or age); while 48% report they have joined the NHS organ donor register, which is 17% more than in the population as a whole. Blood and organ donation is already considered as part of their personal Christian giving by 28% (rising to 35% of clergy and church leaders), with a further 42% being open to the idea. However, as experienced by these worshippers, three-quarters of churches do not mention or encourage either blood or organ donation.

Source: Survey of a representative sample of 3,171 UK Christians of all denominations attending church at least two to three times a month and agreeing that their faith is either the most important thing in their life or more important than most other things. They were drawn from the Christian Research Resonate panel of both church leaders and laity and interviewed online between 10 December 2012 and 9 January 2013. The study was undertaken on behalf of Kore in connection with the launch of the fleshandblood campaign, a partnership with NHS Blood and Transplant to mobilize the Church to increase the number of blood and organ donors in the UK. A summary report, Fleshandblood 2013 Research Results, was published on 5 March 2013 and is available at:

http://fleshandblood.org/resource/2013-research-results/

 

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Sex, Guilt, and Religion and Other News

Posted on March 1, 2013 by Clive D. Field

Our lead story today features the second instalment of findings from the YouGov survey commissioned for this year’s series of Westminster Faith Debates. There are also four other items of more general religious statistical news.

Sex, guilt, and religion

The second of this year’s Westminster Faith Debates, organized by Linda Woodhead and Charles Clarke with support from the AHRC/ESRC Religion and Society Programme and Lancaster University, took place last Wednesday before a capacity audience. The theme was ‘Too Much Sex These Days – the Sexualisation of Society?’ To provide context for the discussion, the organizers issued a press release which included the main findings from a survey commissioned from YouGov, in which 4,437 adults were interviewed online on 25-30 January 2013. The press release, which has been picked up by The Guardian, Daily Telegraph, Daily Mail, and other media, can be read at:

http://www.religionandsociety.org.uk/events/programme_events/show/westminster_faith_debate_27_2_2013_too_much_sex_press_release

The full data tables are located at:

http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/f9g2ypxea3/University-of-Lancaster-Results-130130-Faith-Matters_sex-debate.pd

A particular focus of the questions asked was on the degree of guilt respondents would feel if they engaged in four different sexual activities, all of which are condemned by the Roman Catholic Church. But while those who affiliated to a religion were somewhat more likely to feel guilty than individuals who had no faith, Catholics did not generally experience a deeper sense of guilt than religious people as a whole. Indeed, it was Baptists, Pentecostals, and Muslims who stood out as most guilt-ridden, albeit the sub-samples were fairly small.

The least acceptable of the four sexual activities was extra-marital intercourse, the prospect of which incited guilt in 56% of all adults (64% of the religious and 48% of the non-religious). The other three activities precipitated guilt in only a minority of the sample: 26% said they would feel guilty if they used pornography for sexual stimulation (33% of the religious – albeit 55% of practising Anglicans – and 15% of non-religious); 13% if they engaged in pre-marital sex (20% of the religious and 5% of the non-religious); and 5% if they used contraception (6% of the religious and 3% of the non-religious).

Multivariate analysis filled out this picture in an intriguing way. It revealed that the group least likely to feel guilty about indulging in these sexual activities were men who regarded their own judgement or intuition as the authoritative guide, did not identify with nor participate in a religion, and were definite that there is no God. Most susceptible to guilt were women who described themselves as religious, regarded religious sources as authoritative, were active members of a religion, and definitely believed in God. They felt four times as much guilt as the most guilt-free men. 

Although religious and non-religious adults did not differ markedly in their agreement that sex is important to a fulfilled life (the national average being 68%), there was a big gender gap in those who strongly took this line, with men almost twice as likely as women to do so, and this was true of both religious and non-religious people. However, religious affiliates were more inclined than the norm (66%) to consider that the profile of sex is too high in society, rising to 70% for professing Anglicans, 74% for Catholics, 79% for Baptists, 81% for Muslims, and 81% for all religious respondents who currently participate in religious activities; these figures compare with 61% of the non-religious.

On the vexed subject of birth control, only 9% of nominal Catholics and 12% of practising Catholics entertained any reservations against using it, 89% and 87% respectively feeling no guilt. This bears out other surveys (such as that by the Von Hügel Institute for The Tablet in 2008, which found extensive recourse by mass-going Catholics to a variety of contraceptive practices). The religious body with most qualms about the use of contraception are now the Muslims, but even their guilt factor only reaches 23%.

This particular finding, together with the general claim in the press release that Catholic guilt about sex is a myth, will make uncomfortable reading for the authorities of the Roman Catholic Church which is in a state of some turmoil following the resignations of both the Pope and the most senior British Catholic leader. For Woodhead the clear message of the poll is that ‘most Catholics are taking authority more from their own reason than from the Church’s teaching’.

Jewish neighbourhoods

The Institute for Jewish Policy Research (JPR) has recently (19 February 2013) published its second report on the Jewish population of England and Wales as revealed by the 2011 census, and correcting for non-response. It reveals that Jews are spatially concentrated, with nine-tenths living in under one-fifth of the country’s 8,500 wards, and one-half in just 66, although no individual ward actually contains a Jewish majority (Kersal in Salford has the highest Jewish density, of 41%).

The largest single Jewish neighbourhood is Golders Green in London, which experienced one-third growth between 2001 and 2011, now numbering 7,661 Jews. Even bigger decennial increases were recorded by Sedgley in Bury (42%) and New River in Hackney (35%), both predominantly haredi (strictly Orthodox) communities with 4,748 and 4,093 Jews respectively. Another haredi neighbourhood, Seven Sisters in Haringey, expanded by 103% from a lower 2001 base, to reach 3,162 Jews. By contrast, significant decline was recorded in some formerly dominant Jewish communities, notably by 43-55% in four Redbridge wards, and 26-29% in three Harrow wards. Natural increase and migration are identified as the two principal engines of Jewish demographic change.

The report 2011 Census Results (England and Wales): Initial Insights into Jewish Neighbourhoods by David Graham is available to download from:

http://www.jpr.org.uk/downloads/2011%20Census%20Jewish%20neighbourhoods%20Final.pdf

JPR intends to complement the information which can be gleaned from the census with its own National Jewish Community Study, sponsored by many major Jewish organizations, and to be conducted early this year.

Knowledge of historical documents

When it comes to key historical documents, the British public seems to have a better knowledge of those with ‘political’ as opposed to ‘religious’ interest. This is according to an Ipsos MORI survey for King’s College London which was reported recently, although the actual fieldwork took place on 20-24 October 2012. Telephone interviews were held with 1,005 adults aged 18 and over.

Read a list of eight historical documents, 90% professed to have heard of the United States Declaration of Independence, 89% of the United Nations Declaration of Human Rights, 87% of the Domesday Book, and 85% of Magna Carta (whose 800th anniversary will be commemorated in 2015). Knowledge was a little shakier about the actual details of Magna Carta, although 25% thought that it had guaranteed freedom of religion (presumably a reference to clause 1, which concerned the freedom of the English Church).

The other four documents on the list had a stronger religious component. Seven-tenths of the public were aware of the King James Bible (Authorized Version), a relatively high visibility which presumably owed something to the 2011 quatercentennial celebrations. However, far fewer claimed to know about the three manuscripts: 39% about the Lindisfarne Gospels (held at the British Library), 13% about the Codex Sinaiticus (substantially at the British Library, and bought for the nation following a public appeal in 1933-34), and 5% about the Textus Roffensis (at Medway Archives). The Textus is a hybrid document subsuming the oldest English law code and the oldest register of Rochester Cathedral.

As with all such polls about professed knowledge, we should be on our guard against inflated claims. These may arise either from an unwillingness to admit ignorance about something which people think they ought to know about (or believe they would be expected by others to know about) or from genuine confusion, misunderstanding, or misrecollection.

There is a blog about the survey, written by Sir Robert Worcester (chair of the Magna Carta 800th Anniversary Committee), at:

http://www.ipsos-mori.com/newsevents/ca/1286/85-of-British-adults-say-they-have-heard-of-the-Magna-Carta.aspx

Pastoral Research Centre reports

The Pastoral Research Centre (PRC) Trust has started to make available a number of past PRC reports as free downloads via the Trust website. The first batch of three such downloads includes: Pastoral & Population Statistics of the Catholic Community in England & Wales, 1958-2002: A Report to Parishes, edited by Tony Spencer (2004); and Tony Spencer, Secrecy in the Catholic Church: The Case of Catholic School Statistics in England and Wales (2010). They can be found at:

http://www.prct.org.uk/free-downloads

Faith in Research Conference

The seventh annual Faith in Research Conference takes place on Thursday, 20 June 2013 (please note the new date) at Church House, Westminster. It has been organized by the Church of England’s Research and Statistics Department and the Oxford Centre for Ecclesiology and Practical Theology. Bishop John Packer will take the chair. The programme begins with a keynote session by Professor Linda Woodhead of Lancaster University on ‘The Church of England Today: A Changing Church in a Changing Culture’, followed by sessions on three parallel themes: Church and society; mission; and ministry. Full programme details are available at:

http://www.churchofengland.org/media/1668581/fir_programmeupdatedv1.pdf

The standard conference fee is £65 (£55 if paid before 5 April), or £25 for students. Registration is online at:

http://faithinresearch2013.eventbrite.co.uk/#

 

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Attitudes to Muslims

Posted on January 11, 2013 by Clive D. Field

The year 2012 ended with the revelation that the Muslim community in England and Wales had grown by 75% between the 2001 and 2011 censuses of population. This basic demographic fact, combined with the increasingly prominent role and voice which Muslims have gained in national life and in the public square, seems bound to stimulate survey research measuring attitudes to them. And, indeed, the year 2013 starts with the publication of two sets of research findings on this very topic.  

Offending Islam

Violent demonstrations against the United States (US) took place in a number of Muslim countries last September, following the distribution on YouTube of the short anti-Islamic film Innocence of Muslims, which had been made in the US. In a poll conducted in the immediate aftermath of the furore, but only just released, 24% of Britons agreed that the makers of the film ought to have been prosecuted by the US authorities for committing a hate crime, with 40% opposed to such action, and 36% uncertain. Support for prosecution was strongest among the over-60s (31%), Londoners (30%), Liberal Democrat voters (29%), and Scots (28%).

Opinion was also split about the subsequent publication, in direct response to the anti-American protests, by the French magazine Charlie Hebdo of a cartoon of the Prophet Muhammad naked in front of a film director. One-third (33%) of Britons supported the magazine’s decision, as a defence of free expression, 35% criticized the publishers for causing unnecessary offence to Muslims, and 32% expressed no views. Charlie Hebdo’s greatest supporters were found among men (44%), Conservative voters (42%), and the 18-24s (41%); its greatest detractors among the over-60s (49%).

The potential tensions between free speech and religious sensibilities were explored in five more generic questions. Majorities of adults endorsed four of these statements about what should be legally allowed in Britain: saying a religion threatens world peace (60%), saying a particular religion is nonsense (59%), saying the founder of a particular religion never existed (56%), and producing visual images of the Prophet Muhammad (53%). The only statement to be approved by a plurality but not a majority of respondents was saying or printing insults about the founder of a particular religion; while 41% agreed that this should be allowed, 33% objected (14% to 18% more than to the other statements). The proportion of ‘don’t knows’ ranged from 22% to 31%, dependent upon the question.

Across all five statements, men, non-manual workers, Scots, and Conservative voters were consistently more likely to agree that the various activities should be lawful. The over-60s and Londoners were most prone to querying their legality. Since the explicit and implicit context of the entire survey was about causing offence to Muslims, the relatively pro-Islam stance of the over-60s is interesting since, on many other measures of attitudes to Islam and Muslims, this age cohort often holds the most negative views. Clearly, their position is tempered by a general sympathy for people of faith and by a sense that respect and tolerance should set appropriate limits on freedom of speech and expression; doubtless, there are also fears that mocking of Christianity might follow in the footsteps of lampooning Islam. The views of Londoners are readily explained by the fact that (as confirmed by the 2011 census) the capital is now the most diverse part of the country in terms of nationality, ethnicity, and religion, with a notable concentration of Muslims.     

Source: Online survey by YouGov among 1,710 Britons aged 18 and over on 30 September and 1 October 2012. Full results released on 7 January 2013 and available at:

http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/6xjwsgccth/YouGov-Results-121001-Muslim-protests.pdf

Integration of Muslims

Attitudes towards the integration of Muslims in British society are fairly evenly balanced, with 38% of adult Britons agreeing that Muslims want to ‘fit in’, 39% disagreeing, and 21% neutral. However, these results are not uniform across three sets of sociological, religious, and political-ideological independent variables, which have been newly investigated through two multinomial logistic regression models.

For sociological variables, no significant effects were discovered for ethnic group or age, and only a relatively weak influence for gender (women being more prone than men to take a neutral position). Yet education was significant: those with a degree-level qualification were more likely to offer a neutral response or to agree that Muslims want to fit in than disagree, compared to those with no qualifications.

Religious affiliation (denomination) had little impact overall, and frequency of attendance at religious services was not significant in terms of the fuller of the two models. But religious salience (measured by the importance attached to religion in daily life) did make a difference. Higher levels of religious salience increased the likelihood of respondents agreeing that Muslims wanted to fit in, thereby providing some support for the ‘solidarity of the religious’ thesis proposed by Joel Fetzer and Christopher Soper.

Several (but not all) of the political-ideological factors were found to have statistically significant effects. In particular, a socially authoritarian disposition was associated with negative perceptions of Muslim integration, as was anti-immigrant bias. Similarly, those with traditionalist or exclusivist views of the role of Christianity were less likely to think Muslims wanted to fit in. On the other hand, individuals who took a pro-religion line on the wearing of religious dress or the banning of religiously offensive material were more likely to give neutral responses or to agree about Muslim integration.

Source: Ben Clements, ‘Explaining Public Attitudes towards the Integration of Muslims in British Society: The “Solidarity of the Religious”?’ Journal of Contemporary Religion, Vol. 28, No. 1, January 2013, pp. 49-65. The article is based on secondary analysis of one specific question (‘Do all Muslims living in Britain really want to fit in?’) posed to sub-samples A and B (n = 2,250) of the British Social Attitudes Survey of June-November 2008. Abstract and access options for the full text of the article can be found at:

http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/13537903.2013.750836

 

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Carols + Websites + Prisoners

Posted on December 10, 2012 by Clive D. Field

Today’s medley covers Christmas carols, church websites, and Muslim young offenders. It is anticipated that our next substantive post will be devoted to the 2011 religious census results for England and Wales, scheduled for release on 11 December.

Silent night

Silent Night (Stille Nacht, heilige Nacht), written in Austria by Father Joseph Mohr in 1816, remains the nation’s favourite Christmas carol, as it has been in various opinion surveys conducted over recent years. YouGov’s latest study gives it 21% of the popular vote (rising to 28% of the over-60s), similar to the 20% recorded by the same pollsters two years ago. Runner up position goes to O Come All Ye Faithful (Adeste fideles), with 11% of preferences (10% in 2010), being twice as popular among Conservative and Liberal Democrat voters as for Labour supporters. Charles Wesley’s Hark, the Herald Angels Sing moves up three places, from sixth to third (on 10%, six points above its score in 2010).

The chart is a little contrived, in that respondents did not have a completely free choice over which carols they could nominate. Although there was a category for ‘other’, they were presented with a pre-set list and asked which was their favourite carol on it. The 2012 list was distinctly shorter than in 2010, only nine titles now compared with twenty-five then. Moreover, whereas in 2010 all the lyrics could arguably be classified as carols, by 2012 Jingle Bells (6%), Rudolph the Red Nose Reindeer (5%), and We Wish You a Merry Christmas (4%) had been allowed to make an entrance. Clearly, the boundaries between sacred and secular have become muddied. But, even with such elastic definitions, 21% said that they did not have a favourite carol, with a notable gender gap between men (26%) and women (16%).      

Source: Online survey by YouGov among 1,552 British adults aged 18 and over on 18-19 November 2012, but results not published until 10 December at:

http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/b5u5pjenmy/Christmas-results-121119.pdf

Church websites

Two-thirds of local churches across a range of denominations had a dedicated website as at December 2011, up from two-fifths in 2009, but many of those examined in detail by a postgraduate researcher were found to be sub-optimal. In particular, 63% were non-current in terms of their content, with 12% of them more than three months out of date. Many also had surprising omissions of content, 5% even failing to give the times of the Sunday services and 22% not including a map. Only a minority of church websites contained information about the arrangements for rites of passage: 35% about weddings, 30% about baptisms, and 14% about funerals. Just 8% of websites incorporated a blog and 16% a link to a social media service for the church. 

Source: Sara Batts, ‘What’s the Point of a Website …’, Church Times, 30 November 2012, p. 35. The author is undertaking doctoral research at Loughborough University. An earlier report of her research has appeared on BRIN at:

http://www.brin.ac.uk/news/2011/churches-and-new-media-use/

Young Muslim prisoners

The proportion of Muslims among young men aged 15-18 detained in young offender institutions in England and Wales has risen from 13% in 2009/10 to 16% in 2010/11 to 22% in 2011/12. In 2011/12 they comprised the largest single religious group in such institutions, even outnumbering Anglicans (18%) and Catholics (17%), albeit fewer than the 33% who professed no faith. Moreover, despite signs of improvement since 2010/11, the experiences of young Muslim prisoners in 2011/12 continued to be frequently more negative than that of their non-Muslim counterparts. Of the 167 questions tested for statistical significance, responses to 68 (41%) were more negative for Muslims than non-Muslims, and in only 15 (9%) were they more positive.

Source: Questionnaires completed by 926 males aged 15-18 (195 of them Muslims) detained in young offender institutions in England and Wales in 2011/12. Results published by HM Inspectorate of Prisons and the Youth Justice Board in Rachel Murray, Children and Young People in Custody, 2011-12: An Analysis of the Experiences of 15-18-Year-Olds in Prison, with the detailed comparison of responses for Muslims and non-Muslims at pp. 128-34. The document is available at:

http://www.justice.gov.uk/downloads/publications/inspectorate-reports/hmipris/summeries-of-juvenile-survey-responses/children-and-young-people-custody-2011-12.pdf

Similar findings have also been published recently in HM Chief Inspector of Prisons 2011/12 survey of 6,161 adult prisoners, 899 (15%) of them Muslim. On 85 measures of prison life, Muslim responses were significantly worse than those of non-Muslims in 48 (56%) and significantly better in just 18 (21%); in the remaining questions (22%) there was no significant difference. Details contained in HM Chief Inspector of Prisons for England and Wales, Annual Report, 2011-12: Survey Summaries – Ethnicity, Religion, Nationality, Disability and Age, which can be found at:

http://www.justice.gov.uk/downloads/publications/corporate-reports/hmi-prisons/annual-report-2011-12-survey-summaries.pdf

 

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Churchgoing in York and Other News

Posted on October 31, 2012 by Clive D. Field

Herewith three news items which have come to hand during the final week of October:

Churchgoing in York

The churchgoing history of York from 1764 to the present day is recounted, statistically, in part II (chapter 6, pp. 113-56) of Robin Gill’s new book, Theology Shaped by Society: Sociological Theology, Volume 2 (Farnham: Ashgate, 2012, ISBN 978-1-4094-2597-7, £19.99, paperback – also available as a hardback and an e-book). This is both an update and a re-evaluation of the case study of York which featured in chapter 9 of Gill’s earlier works, The Myth of the Empty Church (1993) and The ‘Empty’ Church Revisited (2003). It is based upon church censuses (local, except for 1851), Anglican visitation returns, and original fieldwork by Gill, in co-operation with individual places of worship. It does not utilize Christian Research’s English church census data for the York unitary authority, available for 1989, 1998, and 2005.

Table 6.1 on p. 151 summarizes adult church attendance in York for six years between 1901 and 2010. This would perhaps have been more meaningful had estimates of the adult population of York been included, together with a footnote about any boundary changes which may have impacted the figures. In absolute terms, churchgoing is continuing to decline in the city, down by (what many would consider) a modest 5.3% between 2001 and 2010. Catholicism has experienced the sharpest contraction (14.2%), with the Church of England falling by just 2.4% during this decade and the Free Churches by 0.4%.

The good fortunes of the Free Churches reflect the vibrancy of newer churches and Christian fellowships, some of which were overlooked by Gill in his previous surveys, and which are heavily dependent upon immigrants and/or students. By contrast, the ‘historic’ Free Churches, notably the Methodists, are still struggling, as they mostly are everywhere. Similarly, the Anglicans benefit disproportionately from the pull of York Minster and the evangelical ministry of St Michael-le-Belfrey, the subject of an ethnographic study by Mathew Guest, Evangelical Identity and Contemporary Culture (2007).

In conceptual terms, the data are less related to historical and sociological debates about secularization than to contemporary challenges and strategies of mission and church growth. Drawing upon the influential Anglican report on Mission-Shaped Church (2009), the metaphor of needing to defuse the ‘ticking time-bomb’ of church decline (related to failures in the intergenerational transmission of faith from parents to children) is invoked by Gill several times. Notwithstanding the current vibrancy of the newer manifestations of ‘Free Churchism’ – charted further by David Goodhew’s chapter on New Churches in York in Church Growth in Britain, 1980 to the Present (2012) – Gill concludes that the churchgoing situation in York remains ‘fragile’.

The BIG Welcome

The BIG Welcome was launched by British Baptists in 2010 to encourage Christians to invite the unchurched to a service or event at their church. From 2012 the Methodist and Elim Pentecostal Churches have also become involved, making this a sort of Free Church equivalent to Back to Church Sunday (covered in previous BRIN posts), which was started in 2004 within the Church of England and has become progressively more ecumenical, albeit (in quantitative terms) still essentially Anglican (in 2011 58,000 of the 77,000 additional churchgoers were at Anglican places of worship).

By comparison with Back to Church Sunday, the BIG Welcome is a relatively modest affair. In 2011 280 Baptist churches participated, out of 3,215 in England, Wales and Scotland in 2010, just 9%. About 3,000 people came to a church event for the first time in September 2011, 10.7 per participating church. In 2012 the number of churches involved has been 330 out of a combined total of 9,330 Baptist, Methodist and Elim congregations, or 4%. New individuals coming to a BIG Welcome service on Sunday, 23 September this year amounted to 3,660, 11.1 per participating church. Although 87% of participating churches have already indicated they will get involved in the initiative again in 2013 (the other 13% saying they might do so), the future of the BIG Welcome is actually in some doubt on account of impending restructuring at the Baptist Union headquarters in Didcot.

Source: Number of churches (in 2010) from Peter Brierley’s UK Church Statistics, 2005-2015. BIG Welcome data mainly from a report published on Baptist Times Online on 31 October 2012, available at:

http://www.baptisttimes.co.uk/index.php/national-news/597-support-for-big-welcome

Religious Discrimination

In several respects, Britain has become more tolerant and less prejudiced during the past four decades, according to a recent poll of adults. Compared with the 1970s, 81% now feel that there is less discrimination against homosexuals than there used to be, 79% less against black people, 78% less against women, and 64% less against Asians. Of secular groups, only ageism bucks the trend, with 33% saying that discrimination against the elderly has got worse over the years (albeit 6% fewer than those thinking it has decreased).

On the religion front, anti-Semitism is perceived to have abated, with 58% claiming there is less discrimination against Jews than in the 1970s, 7% more, and 25% about the same. However, Muslims, who had a relatively low public profile and were significantly less numerous four decades ago, have not been so fortunate, with 48% of all adults contending that they experience more discrimination, 33% less, and 11% a similar amount as before. Three-tenths also feel that discrimination against Christians has grown, and this is especially so among men (35%) and Conservative voters (41%). Equivalent proportions believe that discrimination against Christians has lessened (32%) or remained static (29%).

Source: Online survey by YouGov among 1,637 adult Britons aged 18 and over on 22-23 October 2012. Full data tables published on 26 October and available at:

http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/605x8bbko6/Discrimination%20results%20121023.pdf

 

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August YouGov Polls on Political Issues

Posted on September 19, 2012 by Clive D. Field

Herewith a round-up of recent YouGov polls touching on the interaction of religion and politics.

‘Doing God’

The majority of Britons are keen to keep religion apart from politics, according to a study published on 13 September 2012. 81% affirmed that religious practice is a private matter, which should be separated from British politico-economic life; 76% agreed that religious leaders should not influence how people vote in elections; 71% disagreed that religious leaders should have influence over the decisions of Government; 66% disagreed that politicians who did not share respondents’ own religious beliefs should not run for public office; and 65% disagreed that Britain would be a better place if more religious leaders held public office. Fewer than one in ten took the opposite stance on all these measures, with the remainder neutral or undecided, albeit as many as 16% wanted Christianity to play a greater role in British politics. Asked how much influence religion already has in British politics, 53% opted for the mid-positions (3-6) on a scale of 0-10, with 10% uncertain. Doubtless, the results were informed by the fact that 53% of the sample (including 69% of 18-24s) did not regard themselves as belonging to any particular religion.

Source: YouGov survey for YouGov@Cambridge in which 2,027 adult Britons were interviewed online between 10 and 19 August 2012. Data tables available at:

http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/md6rf2qvws/Reputation%20UK%20Report_21-Aug-2012_F.pdf

The survey was also conducted in the United States, France, Germany, the Middle East and North Africa, Pakistan and China. The multinational topline data are at:

http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/yf07oalgnu/Reputation%20x-country%20Report_24-Aug-2012_F.pdf

Islamophobia

Political parties of the far right are likely to take comfort from a poll released on 17 September 2012 which suggested that Islamophobia is a potential vote-winner. As many as 37% of electors indicated that they were more likely to vote for a party that promised to reduce the number of Muslims and the presence of Islam in British society, compared with 23% who said that they would be less likely to vote for a party pursuing such an agenda and 31% that it would make no difference. Those more likely to vote for a party under these circumstances were especially numerous among Conservatives (50%), the over-60s (49%), manual workers (45%), and Northerners (42%). Those less likely to vote for such a party were concentrated among Liberal Democrats (52%), the 18-24s (42%), Scots (33%), the 25-39s (32%), Londoners (31%), and non-manual workers (30%).

Source: YouGov survey for the Extremis Project (Matthew Goodwin) in which 1,725 adult Britons were interviewed online between 19 and 20 August 2012. Data tables available at:

http://extremisproject.org/2012/09/extremis-projectyougov-data-and-results/

Sunday Trading after the Olympic and Paralympic Games (1)

44% of Britons favour the permanent abolition of the legislative restrictions on the Sunday trading hours of large shops, which were temporarily suspended for the eight weeks around the Olympic and Paralympic Games. This would allow such shops to open for as long as they choose. 37% wanted to see the normal restrictions (a maximum of six hours between 10 a.m. and 6 p.m.) reactivated, while 11% argued for an even tighter regime, with a total ban on large stores opening on Sundays. Advocates of permanent abolition were particularly to be found in Scotland (66%), to which the law does not apply, in any case. The over-60s (17%) most desired a return to the ‘traditional Sunday’, pre-dating the Sunday Trading Act 1994, a time when large stores ordinarily could not open at all.

Source: YouGov survey for The Sunday Times in which 1,731 adult Britons were interviewed online between 23 and 24 August 2012. Data tables available at:

http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/sdx6k0u8c5/YG-Archives-Pol-ST-results-24-260812.pdf

Sunday Trading after the Olympic and Paralympic Games (2)

A similar number (45%) to the previous poll supported the permanent extension of Sunday trading hours after the summer Games, with 83% of them backing wholly unrestricted hours. 24% considered that such a move would boost the ailing UK economy, and 22% anticipated that they would shop more on Sunday if hours are liberalized. At the same time, although 82% were aware of the temporary relaxation in opening hours during the Games, only 24% of these overall (rising to 39% of 18-34s) had actually taken advantage of the change. 39% believed that the Government will eventually legislate to relax Sunday trading laws. 16% opposed shops being allowed to open at all on Sundays.

Source: YouGov survey for business law firm DWF in which 2,045 adult Britons were interviewed online between 24 and 27 August 2012. Summary findings only available in DWF press release of 7 September 2012 at:

http://www.dwf.co.uk/insight/dwf-press/shoppers-back-longer-sunday-hours

 

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British Social Attitudes, 2011

Posted on September 18, 2012 by Clive D. Field

The twenty-ninth report from the British Social Attitudes (BSA) Survey was published by NatCen Social Research on 17 September 2012, less than a year after the completion of the fieldwork (June-November 2011) on which it is based.

As usual, the 2011 BSA was undertaken through a combination of face-to-face interviews and self-completion questionnaires with adult Britons aged 18 and over. The full sample comprised 3,311 individuals, albeit some questions were put only to sub-samples.

Edited by Alison Park, Elizabeth Clery, John Curtice, Miranda Phillips and David Utting, the book-length report on British Social Attitudes, 29 is available for free download from:

http://www.bsa-29.natcen.ac.uk/media/13421/bsa29_full_report.pdf

The annotated questionnaire for the survey can be found at:

http://www.bsa-29.natcen.ac.uk/media/11241/annotated_questionnaire_2011.pdf

Although the dataset is not yet available through the Economic and Social Data Service, the 2011 data have already been loaded into the British Social Attitudes Information System, through whose website weighted results for each question can be viewed, disaggregated by demographics. Go to:

http://www.britsocat.com/Home

There was no special module on religion in the 2011 survey, but several questions of potential interest to BRIN users were included.

Asked whether they regarded themselves as belonging to any particular religion, 44% of adults replied in the negative. This was a lower proportion than in 2010 (50%) but much higher than when the question had first been put in 1983 (31%). It also represented a big increase on the 17% of 2011 interviewees who had not been brought up in any religion, suggesting that very many relinquish faith on transition to adulthood.

The number professing no religion varied substantially by age, peaking among the 18-24s (65%) and falling steadily to 18% among the over-75s. The age differential also largely explains the high of 57% for the never married and the low of 25% for the widowed. Gender was likewise significant, with 51% of men against 39% of women having no faith.

Regionally, Wales (historically a heartland of Nonconformity) reported the greatest incidence of irreligion (58%) and Greater London (formerly renowned for its poor religious allegiance but now boosted by religiously-minded immigrants) one of the lowest (42%). The Midlands, another centre of immigration, recorded 41%.

Very regular (once a week or more) attendance at religious services (other than for rites of passage) was claimed by 14%, almost certainly an exaggeration, while 58% said that they never attended public worship, just a modest rise on 53% in 1991. The picture is complicated by the fact that this question was apparently answered by very many, albeit not all, of those professing no religion.

In fact, 13% of the irreligious stated that they sometimes attended religious services. Anglicans had the highest total non-attendance (56%), with Roman Catholics on 28%, other Christians on 39%, and non-Christians on 29%. Men (65%) were more likely never to attend than women (54%). Variation by age cohort was between 54% and 65%, by marital status between 56% and 64%, and by region between 54% and 65%.

Other questions explored attitudes to Muslims. In the main (face-to-face) questionnaire, randomly-chosen sub-samples were asked for their views on three groups of migrants to Britain (labour migrants, student migrants, and family reunion migrants) originating from various geographical contexts, one of them being ‘Muslim countries like Pakistan’. 

An analysis of the results is given in the chapter on immigration (pp. 26-44) by Robert Ford, Gareth Morrell and Anthony Heath, which appears in British Social Attitudes, 29, especially on pp. 35-40. In respect of Muslims, public opinion was found to be more nuanced than has usually been assumed yet there remained some underlying prejudice.

Regarding labour migration, while 61% said that Muslim professionals filling jobs was good for Britain, only 17% said the same about unskilled Muslim labourers and even fewer (10%) about the same group searching for work. This professional/unskilled split was generic, but net support for Muslim migrants still tended to be less than from East Europe. Indeed, on several measures of the economic and cultural impact of migration there was a clear net preference for East Europeans over Muslims.

A similar trend was evident for student migration. Although the public was much more well-disposed to student migrants in general with good grades than bad grades, regardless of region of origin, net support for students with good grades from Muslim countries was smaller than from the other three geographical clusters, and net opposition to student migrants with bad grades was slightly higher for those from Muslim countries than West Europe or East Asia.

The pattern was repeated for family reunion migration, with which the public is unhappy overall. At 57%, net opposition to migrants from Muslim countries bringing their family to live in Britain for three years was very much greater than for family reunion migration from West Europe. The disparity remained when the period of settlement was extended to ten years, albeit family reunion migration from Africa was then perceived somewhat more negatively than from Muslim countries. 

Version C of the self-completion questionnaire, put to one-third of the sample, explored another dimension of anti-Muslim prejudice, asking respondents how comfortable they would be if a close relative married or otherwise entered into a relationship with a person who grew up in a Muslim country. Answers were recorded on a scale running from 0 to 10.

23% of respondents were very uncomfortable (0 or 1) about this prospect and 22% very comfortable (9 0r 10). Least discomfort was felt by the 18-24s (10%) and Scots (14%). Most discomfort was manifested by the over-65s (including 38% for the 65-74s), with age also probably contributing to highs for those with no educational qualifications (44%) and the widowed (38%).

The 2011 BSA findings on religious affiliation were highlighted in the notes for editors section of a BBC press release on 12 September concerning the Corporation’s RE:THINK 2012 Religion and Ethics Festival, hosted in Salford recently.

In connection with the Festival, the BBC commissioned its own research from TNS BMRB among 585 16- to 24-year-olds, interviewed face-to-face between 15 and 21 August 2012.

Asked to rank the most important moral issue for them, having religious faith or beliefs featured in equal penultimate place in a list of eight options, scoring just 4% compared with 59% of the young who selected looking after family. Moreover, religion was considered the least important moral issue by 32% of respondents.

The BBC press release can be found at:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/mediacentre/latestnews/2012/rethink-poll.html

 

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Anti-Conservative Vote

Posted on April 30, 2012 by Clive D. Field

Religion is the single most powerful predictor (among eight factors) of an individual’s likelihood to say that they would never vote Conservative, with 44% of those with no faith rejecting the possibility of supporting the Tories, compared with 35% of Muslims, 32% of Christians, 26% of Sikhs, and 19% of Hindus. Just 15% overall stated that they would never vote Labour, including 7% of Muslims, 6% of Hindus, and 5% of Sikhs.

These findings emerged from a new report – Degrees of Separation: Ethnic Minority Voters and the Conservative Party – released by Lord Ashcroft (businessman, author and philanthropist, and ex-Deputy Chairman of the Conservative Party) on his blog on 28 April 2012, and featured in the Sunday Telegraph the following day. The 50-page report and 159 pages of data tables are available at: 

http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2012/04/ethnic-minority-voters-and-the-conservative-party-2/

10,268 adults living in the census-defined Middle Layer Super Output Areas with the highest concentration of black and minority ethnic (BME) persons were interviewed by telephone on Ashcroft’s behalf between 24 October and 4 December 2011. These areas, which are largely urban and working class in profile, account for 70% of the BME population of England and Wales.

The sample included 4,590 self-identifying Christians, 513 Hindus, 1,747 Muslims, 308 Sikhs, 761 other religions, and 2,124 of no religion. Christians and those of no religion were overwhelmingly white (77% and 84%), with 94% of Sikhs and 90% of Hindus Asians. 67% of Muslims were Asian, 12% white, and 11% black.

In the May 2010 general election 24% of Christians recalled that they had voted Conservative, against 18% of Hindus, 15% of Sikhs, 13% of no religion, and 12% of Muslims. The Labour vote had been highest among Muslims (41%) and lowest for Christians (28%), with Hindus and Muslims on 35% and 37% respectively. Non-voters were above the average of 29% for Muslims (31%) and those of no religion (33%).

In the event of a general election being held ‘tomorrow’, only 6% of Muslims said they would vote Conservative, 7% of Sikhs, 13% of no religion, 14% of Hindus, and 20% of Christians and other religions. 51% of Muslims, 48% of Sikhs, 37% of Hindus, 33% of Christians and those of no religion, and 31% of other religions inclined to support Labour. 

Asked whether they identified with one political party as consistently representing people like themselves, only 5% of Muslims and 9% of Hindus and Sikhs replied the Conservative Party (against 15% of Christians and 8% of no religion). The affinity of 47% of Muslims, 46% of Sikhs, 38% of Hindus, 30% of Christians, and 23% of those with no religion was with the Labour Party.  

Of all religions, Muslims were especially prone to say that the Conservative Party (41%) and David Cameron (38%) do not really care about people from different ethnic or religious backgrounds. However, these figures were somewhat exceeded by those professing no religion (44% and 39%). 8% of Muslims saw the Conservatives and Cameron as actively hostile to individuals from different ethnic or religious backgrounds.

Correlated component regression analysis was used to isolate specific views most often associated with an unwillingness to vote Conservative among BME religious groups. For Muslims the strongest drivers were found to be a perception that the Conservative Party does not stand for fairness, is actively hostile to people from different ethnic and religious backgrounds, and that its policies have shown this to be the case.

Non-Christians and those without faith were somewhat more likely than Christians to believe that the economy and employment were the most important issues facing the country. Muslims (57%) were far more likely to prioritize education than Christians (38%), and, together with those of no religion, much less likely than Christians, Hindus and Sikhs to see control of immigration as a key topic (one-quarter for the two former versus two-fifths for the three latter groups).

It must be reiterated that the main purpose of Ashcroft’s survey was to probe BME attitudes to the Conservative Party. Its underlying sample was not nationally representative, especially in terms of social class and locality. Also, for BMEs the Ethnic Minority British Election Study (EMBES) is an important alternative dataset. Some preliminary analysis of this by religion was posted on BRIN’s website last year by Ben Clements and Maria Sobolewska at:

http://www.brin.ac.uk/news/2011/the-ethnic-minority-british-election-study-embes-part-ii/

and

http://www.brin.ac.uk/news/2011/religion-and-politics-among-ethnic-minorities-in-britain/

 

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London Mayoral Elections

Posted on April 18, 2012 by Clive D. Field

Just a week after the publication of the Demos report Faithful Citizens, which established linkages between people of faith and progressive politics, comes evidence that religious issues are creeping into the forthcoming and hotly-contested elections for London’s Mayor.

This is suggested by a YouGov poll for the Evening Standard, conducted online between 13 and 15 April 2012 among a sample of 1,060 Greater London residents aged 18 and over. The full data tables are available at:

http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/q040gzgswz/YG-Archives-EveningStandard-MayoralRace-160412.pdf

One of the questions asked was about the eleventh-hour intervention of the current London Mayor, the Conservative Boris Johnson, to block an advertising campaign on the capital’s buses by two Christian groups (Core Issues Trust and Anglican Mainstream).

The proposed advertisement appeared to suggest, as Johnson saw it, that ‘being gay is an illness that someone recovers from’. The poster was widely regarded as mocking one by the pro-gay group Stonewall which implied that homosexuality is perfectly natural.

51% of Londoners thought that Johnson had been right to ban the advert, rising to 58% of his own supporters, 12% more than among the backers of Labour’s Mayoral candidate (Ken Livingstone), who one might have expected to have taken an even tougher pro-equality stance.

Women were more likely to endorse Johnson’s actions in the affair than men, the 18-24s more than older age cohorts, non-manual workers than manuals, and whites than non-whites. 26% opposed Johnson’s intervention, with 24% undecided.

More generally, 48% of voters thought that, in his election campaign, Johnson wanted to help some groups more than others (with 35% convinced he was out to assist all Londoners). Of the former sub-sample, 78% identified rich Londoners as the group being advantaged by Johnson and 23% white Londoners. Only 5% each said Jews or Muslims, although the proportion reached 11% and 13% respectively among those intending to vote for Johnson as Mayor.

Slightly more of the whole sample, 53%, believed that Livingstone was out disproportionately to benefit only some groups of Londoners. Of these, 41% were convinced he wanted to help Muslims (rising to 53% among the over-60s), 40% Black and Asian Londoners, and 40% poor Londoners.

9% (and 12% of his own supporters) saw Livingstone as out to favour Jews, a figure which may be slightly inflated on account of the humble pie Livingstone has been publicly eating following his recent suggestion that Jews would not vote Labour because they are too rich.

This is not the first time that Livingstone has incurred the wrath of British Jewry. In 2005, when in his second term as Mayor of London himself (he was unseated by Johnson in 2008), he got into very hot water by refusing to apologize for likening a Jewish reporter to a concentration camp guard. Public attitudes to the controversy were tested out in a ComRes survey at the time, in which 50% thought that Livingstone had been wrong not to apologize and 32% right.

Coming back to the current YouGov poll, it would appear that London’s Jews are not seen as being especially courted by either of the two main Mayoral candidates. However, whether true or not, Livingstone is obviously perceived as making a strong pitch for the Muslim vote, in contrast to Johnson. 22% of all Londoners think Livingstone has the Muslim vote in his sights.

This accords with a widespread view in the 1980s and 1990s that Muslims particularly favoured Labour, but that all seems to have changed with Muslim opposition to the Labour administration’s military involvement in Iraq and Afghanistan in the 2000s.

Doubtless, fresh in Livingstone’s mind are the lessons of the recent by-election in Bradford West where Respect’s George Galloway inflicted a heavy defeat on Labour’s candidate (Imran Hussain), with a 37% swing, apparently as a result of a widespread defection of Muslims from Labour to Respect.   

 

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