Current Voting Intentions and Other News

Posted on October 5, 2014 by Clive D. Field

 

Current voting intentions

We are almost through the party political conference season for another year, and the 2015 general election campaign seems already to have started, so it is perhaps an appropriate time to review the state of the ‘religious vote’ in the country. Fortunately, help is at hand in the form of another of Lord Ashcroft’s large-scale polls, this time conducted online among 8,053 voters between 12 and 17 September 2014. Voting intentions for the four main parties by religious affiliation are summarized in the table below, from which it will be seen that by far the most significant trend to emerge is the predisposition to support the Labour Party of non-Christians in general and Muslims in particular. This will almost certainly have been shaped by the younger age profile of non-Christians (49.3% of whom were aged 18-34 compared with 28.0% of the whole sample) but may also reflect past gratitude to the former Labour government for its legislative support of religious diversity and equality (although that administration’s foreign policy in Iraq and Afghanistan had a countervailing influence in the Muslim community).

%   across

Con

Lab

LibDem

UKIP
All

22.4

27.3

5.5

14.5
Christian

28.2

25.3

5.0

16.6
Non-Christian

16.6

40.8

5.7

8.0
Muslim

5.4

62.9

5.4

3.0
No religion

16.2

27.7

6.2

13.1
Prefer not to say

7.6

31.4

6.5

6.5

In terms of religious affiliation, 37.9% of adults in this survey professed no religion, five points more than in equivalent polls conducted between January and June 2011 (32.8%). The number of Christians reduced by more than three points during the same three-year interval (from 56.6% to 53.2%). So, on this particular measure of religiosity at least, Britain seems to be secularizing at quite a rapid pace. For more information, see pp. 136-7 of the data tables at:

http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/Project-Blueprint-5-Full-data-tables-Sept-14.pdf

Islamic State

A round-up of recent polling on the Islamic State (IS) crisis in Iraq and Syria follows, arranged by date of fieldwork (which preceded the announcement of the murder by IS of a second British hostage, Alan Henning). Unless otherwise stated, surveys were conducted among online samples of Britons aged 18 and over. Topline results only are cited, but breaks by demographics are available by following the links.

26-28 September 2014

In a ComRes telephone poll for The Independent among a sample of 1,007, a majority (56%) of the public disagreed with the suggestion that ‘the situation in Iraq and Syria is none of our business and we should stay out of it’, against 38% who agreed. However, somewhat fewer (48%) thought that taking part in military action against IS would make Britain safer in the longer term, with 42% dissenting. David Cameron as current prime minister was more trusted than prospective prime minister Ed Miliband to make the right decisions on how to combat IS (45% versus 28%), albeit the plurality (49%) still distrusted Cameron. Data tables are at:

http://www.comres.co.uk/polls/Independent_Political_Poll_1st_October_2014_1237.pdf

26-28 September 2014

In another ComRes poll, this time conducted for ITV News among 2,024 individuals, 56% approved of British air strikes against IS in Iraq (twice the number disapproving) and 48% in Syria, but far fewer (29%) endorsed the engagement of British ground troops, with 51% opposed. The reasons given by those supporting air strikes were: the threat posed by IS to Britain (77%), the need to take action in the face of atrocities in the world (67%), and the beheading of British and American hostages (66%). Drivers for opposing air strikes included: the prospects of the conflict becoming longer and messier (77%), the lack of clear objectives (47%), the fact that it was none of Britain’s business (43%), the expense of involvement (41%), and Britain’s poor previous record of military action in Iraq (39%). Data tables are at:

http://www.comres.co.uk/polls/ITV_News_Index_29th_September_2014.pdf

1-2 October 2014

IS was the most noticed news story of last week for 26% of the public, according to a Populus poll of 2,014. The death of Alice Gross came second, with 17%, and the Conservative Party conference third, with 11%.

2-3 October 2014

The regular YouGov poll for The Sunday Times, which interviewed 2,130, revealed approval for RAF participation in air strikes against IS to be unchanged from the previous week, at 58% in the case of operations in Iraq and 52% in Syria, although opposition was up by 3% in both cases. People were evenly split, at 42% each, in thinking that air strikes in Iraq would be effective or ineffective in combating IS, but the majority (51%) remained hostile to the commitment of ground troops in Iraq, with only 28% in favour. Data tables are at:

http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/8xpy43vlqr/YG-Archive-Pol-Sunday-Times-results-031014.pdf

Faith schools

The House of Commons Library has recently issued a short briefing note on faith schools in England (reference SN/SP/6972). It includes, at pp. 9-12, a useful digest of relevant statistics, including the number of such schools disaggregated by faith community and educational status, the number of pupils, and performance in GCSE examinations. The note is available at:

http://www.parliament.uk/business/publications/research/briefing-papers/SN06972/faith-schools-faqs

Religion of armed services personnel

The United Kingdom’s armed service personnel remain overwhelmingly Christian in their religious allegiance, but the proportion is slowly declining, according to the Ministry of Defence’s Statistical Series 2 – Personnel Bulletin 2.01, which was published on 25 September 2014. Back in 2009, 87% of personnel professed to be Christian but the figure fell to 80% in 2014. There was a corresponding rise in the number claiming to have no religion, from 12% to 18%, rising to 25% in the case of the Royal Navy (with the Royal Air Force on 21% and the Army on 15%). The proportion of non-Christians continues to be very low (2% across all three services combined), and much less than in the population at large. There is more detail in Table 2.01.09 at:

https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/357724/tri_service_personnel_bulletin_2_01_2014.pdf

Church in Wales statistics

The Church in Wales Membership and Finances, 2013 was one of the papers presented to the meeting of the Church’s Governing Body on 17-18 September 2014. In terms of membership, the report suggests, ‘there are no positive indicators: every field shows decline compared with the previous year, and in some cases that decline is significant’. Most serious was the 18% fall in confirmations between 2012 and 2013, with marriages down 13%, Easter communicants by 10% (on top of an 8% fall from 2011 to 2012), and average attendance by the under-18s by 9%. Average adult attendances reduced by 4% on Sundays and 5% on weekdays. Parochial income and expenditure likewise decreased, by 7% and 4% respectively, albeit a modest operating surplus of £491,000 was achieved. Weekly direct giving per attender grew by 4% in the year, above the rate of inflation, to stand at £9.11; indeed, the overall growth in such giving since 1990 has exceeded the retail prices index by 18% (113% versus 95%). The report is at:

http://www.churchinwales.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/11-MembershipAndFinance.pdf

Jewish identity

The Institute for Jewish Policy Research published on 18 September 2014 a supplementary report on the results of its 2011 National Jewish Student Survey: David Graham, Strengthening Jewish Identity: What Works? An Analysis of Jewish Students in the UK. The underlying dataset includes 36 different measures of Jewish identity for almost 1,000 Jewish students. Through factor analysis they were collapsed into six broad indicators of identity: cognitive religiosity; socio-religious behaviour; cultural religiosity; ethnocentricity; student community engagement; and Jewish values. Although Jewish educational programmes were found to have some positive and independent impact on Jewish identity, overall the effect was six times weaker than that of a Jewish upbringing. The impact of Jewish education was strongest in terms of socio-religious behaviour, including practices such as synagogue attendance and Sabbath observance. The most important educational initiatives, from the perspective of impact on Jewish identity, were revealed to be those involving a seminary experience or gap year in Israel. The report, which also contains reflections on the findings by Jonathan Boyd, is available at:

http://www.jpr.org.uk/documents/JPR.Strengthening_Jewish_Identity.What_works.Sept_2014.pdf

Historic Methodist spirituality

British Methodism holds the record for publishing the longest annual national series of membership returns, starting in 1766. Underpinning them, especially in the earliest days, were the detailed registers of members for the rounds or circuits into which the country was divided. Some of these have survived and provide the basis for an analysis of Methodist membership by gender, marital status, and occupational background. These were systematically examined many years ago by Clive Field, and the results published in ‘The Social Composition of English Methodism to 1830: A Membership Analysis’, Bulletin of the John Rylands University Library of Manchester, Vol. 76, No. 1, Spring 1994, pp. 153-78. This article is freely available at:

https://www.escholar.manchester.ac.uk/api/datastream?publicationPid=uk-ac-man-scw:1m2333&datastreamId=POST-PEER-REVIEW-PUBLISHERS-DOCUMENT.PDF

A few of these registers went even further and, by means of symbols (dots, question marks, letters, and strokes), categorized Methodist members according to their spiritual state, as perceived by the ministers, along a continuum from awakening through justification to sanctification. This aspect of the listings, which had generally been discontinued by the time of John Wesley’s death in 1791, has been less often studied – until now: Robert Schofield, ‘Methodist Spiritual Condition in Georgian Northern England’, Journal of Ecclesiastical History, Vol. 65, No. 4, October 2014, pp. 780-802. Using data especially from the Keighley Round for 1763-65, but also four other circuits (three of them in the North), Schofield demonstrates through ten tables and four figures that both short-term recruitment to and leakage from Methodism were considerable and that the majority of members did not experience spiritual growth over a twelve-month period. For access options, go to:

http://journals.cambridge.org/action/displayAbstract?fromPage=online&aid=9348156&fulltextType=RA&fileId=S0022046913000547

Another new publication to make good use of Methodist statistics is Jonathan Rodell, The Rise of Methodism: A Study of Bedfordshire, 1736-1851 (Publications of the Bedfordshire Historical Record Society, Vol. 92, Woodbridge: Boydell Press, 2014, ISBN 978-0-85155-079-4, £25.00). Its 16 tables examine the number and demographics of Wesleyan and Moravian members; the occupations of fathers of children baptised by Wesleyan and Primitive Methodists; and attendances at chapel and Sunday school in the 1851 religious census.

 

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Personal Values and Other News

Posted on June 1, 2014 by Clive D. Field

 

Personal values

Religion is not regarded as a particularly important value either in the UK or in the European Union (EU) generally, according to newly-released data from Special Eurobarometer 415, which was undertaken in March 2014 as wave 81.2 of Eurobarometer among representative samples of adults aged 15 and over in each of the 28 member states of the EU. UK fieldwork was conducted by TNS UK on 15-24 March 2014 with 1,296 respondents.

Interviewees were presented with a list of twelve values and asked to select a maximum of three which were most important to them personally. Only 7% in the UK picked religion (the same figures as a year previously), which relegated it to eleventh position, just ahead of solidarity (a concept which very few related to in the UK compared with other European countries – otherwise, religion might have come bottom of the list). As in the EU as a whole, the top three UK values were respect for human life, human rights, and peace. The highest priority to religion was accorded in Cyprus (21%), Malta (17%), Greece (15%), and Romania (12%). Summary data are tabulated below, with the full topline statistics available on pp. T60-61 of the report at:

http://ec.europa.eu/public_opinion/archives/ebs/ebs_415_data_en.pdf

%

UK

EU
Respect for human life

44

40
Human rights

35

43
Peace

35

41
Equality

33

20
Rule of law

27

18
Individual freedom

24

23
Democracy

22

26
Respect for other cultures

18

9
Tolerance

16

14
Self-fulfilment

8

9
Religion

7

5
Solidarity

5

15

Church membership

There were 5,436,500 church members in the UK in 2013, 4.5% fewer in absolute terms than in 2008 (with an even bigger fall relative to the rising population), according to Dr Peter Brierley writing in the June 2014 issue of FutureFirst, the bimonthly bulletin of Brierley Consultancy. The 2013 figures derive from a form sent to each of the UK’s almost 300 denominations augmented by estimates in the case of non-response or missing data. The overall rate of decline appears to have lessened from the preceding period, and this is attributed to two principal factors: the establishment of new black and other immigrant churches, and Fresh Expressions of church.

However, the absolute decrease in members between 2008 and 2013 was unevenly distributed across the four home nations, reaching 8.4% in Wales, 11.7% in Northern Ireland, and 17.3% in Scotland (the contraction being especially concentrated in, respectively, the Union of Welsh Independents, Roman Catholic Church, and Church of Scotland). England actually registered a small increase (0.4%) over the five years, thanks to growth among the New Churches, Orthodox Churches, and Pentecostal Churches. A full analysis of the data will appear in the forthcoming second edition of Brierley’s UK Church Statistics.

Same-sex marriage

Prime Minister David Cameron may have recently extolled the virtues of Britain as a Christian country, but, in a poll chiefly about same-sex marriage, 34% of its citizens think he has actually undermined Christianity in the nation, the figure rising to 41% of over-65s and 60% of UKIP voters. Dissentients to the proposition number 42%, including 62% of Conservatives, with 25% don’t knows.

Likewise, a plurality of 45% disagrees that Cameron has improved religious freedom in the UK, with 63% for UKIP supporters. Only 19% consider that he has enhanced religious liberty (among them 37% of Conservatives and 30% of Liberal Democrats), a substantial 35% being undecided.

Notwithstanding the multiple locks (to protect religious sensibilities) built into the English and Welsh legislation for same-sex marriage, 44% feel it inevitable that the Church of England will be forced to conduct such unions (the Welsh being especially pessimistic, on 58%), 30% disagreeing and 26% uncertain.

The findings come from a survey commissioned by the Christian Institute from ComRes, and for which 2,056 adult Britons were interviewed online between 9 and 11 May 2014. Full data tables were published on 19 May at:

http://www.comres.co.uk/polls/CI_SSM_Poll_May_2014.pdf

YouGov miscellany

YouGov’s final European election polling for The Times on 20-21 May 2014, employing an especially large sample of 6,124 adults, included several questions on miscellaneous topics, a couple of which are relevant to BRIN.

The first asked respondents to reflect on various changes in Britain in recent times and to say whether, on balance, each had been good or bad for the country. On the list was allowing supermarkets and other big shops to open on Sundays. This legislative change was approved by 63%, with 17% neutral and 16% opposed. Support was greater among the under-40s than over-40s, the figure for women over 40 falling to 55%.

The second question of interest to BRIN posed the statement: ‘Even in its more moderate forms, Islam is a serious danger to western civilisation’. A plurality of 47% agreed, rising to 75% of UKIP voters. Endorsement was much greater among the over-40s than under-40s (22% more in the case of men and 23% for women). Disagreement to the proposition ran at 28%, peaking at 46% of Liberal Democrats and 58% of Greens, with 18% undecided. Data tables are at:

http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/n966r6px4w/Full_EU_Poll_Final_CUKIP.pdf

Armed forces

FOI releases published by the Ministry of Defence on 28 and 29 May 2014 provide details of the religious affiliation of regular members of the UK armed forces as at 1 October 2013, thereby updating the statistics for 1 April 2013 which were noted in our post of 3 October 2013.

The newly-released data may be summarized (aggregating all non-Christian religions) thus:

 

Army

Navy

RAF

Total

%
Church of England

47,950

15,820

18,380

82,150

49.3
Roman Catholic

11,600

3,790

3,800

19,190

11.5
Other Christian

21,070

5,680

5,310

32,060

19.3
Non-Christian

2,470

290

310

3,070

1.8
No religion

13,770

7,860

6,800

28,430

17.1
Undeclared

170

80

1,320

1,570

0.9
Total

97,030

33,520

35,920

166,470

99.9

The breakdown of the 3,070 non-Christians was as follows: 870 Hindus, 650 Muslims, 550 Buddhists, 160 Sikhs, 120 Pagans, 120 Rastafarians, 70 Jews, 40 Spiritualists, 30 Kiratis, 20 Wiccas, 10 Baha’is, and 430 other religions. The two FOI releases are at:

https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/315082/PUBLIC_1391420325.pdf

https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/315106/PUBLIC_1391430963.pdf

Women bishops

The Church of England’s internal strife over female bishops may be coming to an end, according to the final tabulation (published on 23 May 2014) of voting in diocesan synods on the current draft legislation to permit women to be appointed to the episcopate. In aggregate, the bishops were 94.9% in favour, clergy representatives 87.7%, and lay representatives 88.6%. Apart from Europe (which could not arrange a vote in time), every diocese voted in favour, including London and Chichester (which had rejected the then proposal for women bishops in 2011), albeit 31.4% of the members of the Chichester synod still remain opposed (among them the Bishop of Chichester). The legislation will now go to the Church’s General Synod in July for final approval. The full diocesan record of voting is at:

http://www.churchofengland.org/media/1995951/pr%2064.14%20diocese%20vote%20table.jpg

Anglican school chaplaincy

The extent and nature of chaplaincy in Anglican secondary schools was revealed in a report published on 25 May 2014 by the Church of England Archbishops’ Council Education Division and the National Society. The underlying research was conducted by Michael Camp in the spring and summer terms of 2013, on the basis of an online survey of 198 schools, of which 72 replied, with 27 follow-up visits or structured telephone interviews. The Public Face of God: Chaplaincy in Anglican Secondary Schools and Academies in England and Wales is available at: 

http://www.churchofengland.org/media/1989177/nschaplaincyreport.pdf

Four-fifths (58) of the responding secondary schools were found to have a designated chaplain (or chaplaincy team). A majority of individual chaplains (34) were ordained, 22 were lay, and one was a religious. A plurality (26) were full-time appointments, 23 part-time employees, and eight were volunteers. Employed chaplains were more likely to be on support staff rather than teaching staff contracts.

Events

A reminder that the Church of England’s annual Faith in Research Conference is taking place this coming Wednesday (4 June 2014) at the Novotel, 70 Broad Street, Birmingham, with the Bishop of Manchester in the chair. The programme of keynote and breakout sessions can be found at:

http://www.churchofengland.org/media/1957190/session%20and%20speakers.pdf

Meanwhile, BRIN readers who live within reach of North-East England may be interested to attend a forthcoming public lecture by Dr Peter Brierley on ‘Church Statistics: the Latest Picture’. This will be given at 5 pm on Monday, 23 June 2014 at Etchells House, Cranmer Hall, 16 South Bailey, Durham. The lecture has been arranged by the Centre for Church Growth Research at St Johns College, Durham University, where Peter is a Visiting Fellow. Anybody intending to attend the lecture is kindly requested to email in advance to: d.j.goodhew@durham.ac.uk.

 

 

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Discrimination, Identity, and Other News

Posted on October 3, 2013 by Clive D. Field

The eight stories in today’s post feature a range of topics, but religious discrimination and religious identity especially stand out. It should be noted that the latest statistical bulletin for the Government’s Integrated Household Survey, covering the calendar year 2012 and published on 3 October 2013, did not report on the religious identity question.

Religious discrimination (1)

Perceived discrimination against Muslims has increased during the past three years, but they are still not the group most discriminated against in British society; that unenviable position is thought to be occupied by people with mental health problems, followed by gypsies, transsexuals, and immigrants. This is according to a YouGov poll published on 2 October 2013 and undertaken online on 29-30 September among a sample of 1,717 adult Britons. Interviewees were shown a list of groups and asked how much discrimination they thought each suffered in Britain today, the percentages replying ‘a lot’ or ‘some’ being combined in the table below, with comparisons for January 2011 (where available). Twelve of the 15 groups covered in both surveys were believed to have suffered more discrimination over the three years, only Christians and white persons experiencing a reduction, with no change for atheists (who were the group considered to be least discriminated against). Perceived discrimination against Muslims is now 32% more than against Christians, compared with a gap of 22% in 2011. Discrimination against Jews is believed to be up by one-third.

 

01/2011

09/2013
Asians

44

47
Atheists

10

10
Blacks

41

48
Christians

28

25
Disabled

NA

57
Elderly

45

50
Gays/lesbians

43

50
Ginger haired

25

26
Gypsies/travellers

60

62
Immigrants

54

58
Jews

26

34
Mentally ill

NA

67
Muslims

50

57
Transsexuals

53

60
Whites

32

30
Women

29

34
Working class

31

32

The data table for the survey can be found at:

http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/jzh49t1gqk/YG-Archive-discrimination-results-300913.pdf

Religious discrimination (2)

The Equality and Human Rights Commission has recently published Identity, Expression, and Self-Respect, Briefing Paper No. 9 in its Measurement Framework series, with some accompanying data in Excel format. The paper considers five indicators in detail, the first of which is freedom to practice one’s religion or belief, which is quantified from the 2010 Citizenship Survey (CS) for England and Wales and from HM Inspectorate of Prisons statistics. In the CS 93% of adults overall felt able to practice their religion freely, but somewhat fewer among the under-45s, several ethnic minorities, and Muslims and Sikhs (for detail, see pp. 17-18 and the table accompanying measure El1.1). Breaks by religion are also sometimes shown in connection with the secondary analysis of data for the other four indicators. The briefing paper and tables are at:

http://www.equalityhumanrights.com/key-projects/our-measurement-framework/-briefing-papers-and-data/identity-expression-and-self-respect/

Under a veil

The recent public and media debate about whether Muslim women should be permitted to wear the full face-veil or niqab started in connection with specific cases involving courtrooms and colleges. In canvassing popular opinion on the matter, ComRes therefore decided to take the prohibition of the veil in courts, schools, and colleges as ‘a given’, and to ask respondents whether female Muslims should otherwise be free to wear the veil. One-half (including 61% of over-65s and Conservatives, and 79% of UKIP supporters) thought the veil should not be worn even outside courts, schools, and colleges, and just 32% that it should be. The poll was undertaken by telephone for the Independent on Sunday and Sunday Mirror on 18 and 19 September 2013, among 2,003 Britons aged 18 and over, and the data can be found on pp. 113-16 of the tables posted at:

http://www.comres.co.uk/polls/SM_IoS_Political_Poll_September_2013.pdf

Religious identity (1)

Details of the religious self-identification of the UK’s regular armed forces personnel as at 1 April 2013 were published by the Ministry of Defence on 26 September 2013 in Table 2.01.09 of the 2013 edition of Statistical Series 2 – Personnel Bulletin 2.01. Although the proportion professing no religion has risen steadily, from 9.5% in 2007 to 16.4% today, the overwhelming majority of our service personnel continue to subscribe to some faith, and invariably (81.7% in 2013) to Christianity. Profession of no religion is highest in the Navy (22.3%) and lowest in the Army (13.5%), with 18.7% in the Royal Air Force. Non-Christians are under-represented in relation to society as a whole, which is probably mainly a reflection of the ethnic profile of the armed services. The full table is at:

http://www.dasa.mod.uk/publications/personnel/military/tri-service-personnel-bulletin/2013/2013.pdf

Religious identity (2)

In our coverage of the 2011 Scottish religion census on 28 September 2013, reference was made to potential comparisons with national sample surveys of religious self-identification in Scotland. By way of example, we show below a ten-year percentage comparison from the Scottish Household Survey (SHS), which employs a larger than average sample. The 2012 data are extracted from p. 13 of the 2012 edition of Scotland’s People (published on 28 August 2013), those for 2001-02 from the dataset accessible via the UK Data Service (applying the random adult sample weights). Although the question asked is identical to that in the census (‘what religion, religious denomination, or body do you belong to?’), these statistics refer to adults only and are thus not directly comparable to the initial census results (which are for all ages). The SHS figures also omit non-responses (because the dataset for 2012 is not yet available). The general direction of travel, of course, is similar to the changes seen in the census between 2001 and 2011, with a big increase in the number of Scots professing no religion and a large decrease in support for the Church of Scotland.

 

2001-02

2012
No religion

27.8

43.1
Church of Scotland

47.4

29.7
Roman Catholic

15.1

16.0
Other Christian

7.7

7.9
Non-Christian

2.1

3.4

Scottish marriages

Section 7 of Vital Events Reference Tables, 2012 [for Scotland], published by the General Register Office for Scotland on 27 August 2013, contains three tables dealing with Scottish marriages which will be of interest to BRIN readers:

  • Table 7.5 lists the number of marriages solemnized by celebrants from 50 different religious and belief traditions for each year between 2002 and 2012. The key stories are the steep fall in marriages conducted by the Church of Scotland (down by 50% over this period) and the Methodist Church (down by 70%) and the rapid growth in ceremonies conducted by the Humanist Society Scotland since they were legalized in 2005; by 2012 they had overtaken Roman Catholic marriages and were closing fast on the Church of Scotland.
  • Table 7.6 lists the number of civil and religious marriages (the latter disaggregated by Church of Scotland, Roman Catholic, and other religions) for each year between 1961 and 2012 and each quinquennium between 1946-50 and 2006-10. Whereas civil marriages represented only 17% of the total in 1946-50, by 2006-10 the figure stood at 52%.
  • Table 7.7 lists marriages by ‘denomination’ for 2012, when 51% were civil, 18% Church of Scotland, 10% Humanist Society Scotland, and 6% Roman Catholic.

The tables can be found at:

http://www.gro-scotland.gov.uk/statistics/theme/vital-events/general/ref-tables/2012/section-7-marriages-and-civil-partnerships.html

Time use

Since the earliest days of sample surveys, it has been evident that interviewees have a tendency to overstate their recalled religious activities. This is no more so than in the case of churchgoing where claimed attendance can exceed by a factor of two the totals arrived at by actual censuses of public worship. Steve Bruce and Tony Glendinning of the University of Aberdeen have sought to illustrate the point by repurposing diary data from English respondents (aged 16 and over) to the UK Time Use Survey, 2000-01, which was conducted by the Office for National Statistics. Participants, who were drawn from a random sample of households, were required to record their main and secondary activities for each 10-minute period on the day in question, which included Sundays (3,317 individuals appear to have completed Sunday diaries). Bruce and Glendinning’s methodology and findings are contained in a four-page report on The Extent of Religious Activity in England, which is being disseminated by Brierley Consultancy, an abridged version of which appears in the October 2013 issue of FutureFirst (contact peter@brierleyres.com to obtain copies of either or both versions). The authors conclude as follows:

‘There is little religion of any form practised, public or private. Less than 11% of adults in England engage in any religious activity whatsoever (including personal prayers and meditation and consuming mass media religious programming) of any duration at any point during a typical week. Only 8.25% of adults engage in any episodes of communal practice in the company of others. Less than 7% attend church on a Sunday. Read the other way round – 7% going to church on Sunday, 8% doing some communal religion and 11% doing any religion at all – these data offer little support for the claim that the decline of conventional churchgoing has been offset by an increase in alternative religious activities.’ Of course, it must be remembered that the survey embodied a snapshot of religious activity on the day the diary was completed, and that those who do not engage in such activity on one Sunday may do so on another.

Fossil free churches

This item is not a politically incorrect reference to the age or traditionalism of churchgoers but to a new campaign by Operation Noah (an ecumenical Christian climate change charity) to encourage churches (particularly the Church of England) to disinvest in companies seeking expansion in fossil fuel reserves. The campaign, and its accompanying report (Bright Now: Towards Fossil Free Churches), was launched on 20 September 2013 and underpinned by data from Christian Research’s Resonate panel, 1,520 churchgoers replying to its August 2013 omnibus. Although more than nine out of ten churchgoers agree that churches should invest their money ethically, the majority does not see climate change as a key issue relative to other priorities (such as women bishops). In the case of Anglicans, 63% want the Church of England to take the lead in addressing man-made climate change, yet only one-quarter supports the Church disinvesting in companies extracting fossil fuels. As with most Resonate polls, full data are not in the public domain, but Operation Noah’s press release can be read at:

http://www.operationnoah.org/node/569

 

 

 

 

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Life After the Census

Posted on December 13, 2012 by Clive D. Field

The 2011 census of population may be by far the most significant religious statistical source to have been published this week, but there have been a few other reports, too, which are worthy of note. Here we highlight four which appeared on 11 or 12 December 2012.

Same-sex marriage

Just over half the population (53%) supports the broad thrust of what we now know to be Government plans in England and Wales to legislate for a) the civil marriage of same-sex couples and b) religious bodies to have the freedom, if they so choose, to offer religious marriages to same-sex couples. Endorsement is particularly strong among Liberal Democrat voters (66%) and those aged 25-39 (64%). Opposition stands at 37% and is especially pronounced among the over-60s (47%), men (44%), and Conservative voters (42%). 10% are undecided. It should be noted that fieldwork for the survey was completed before the Government unveiled its detailed plans on 11 December, so the question could not have anticipated that Government intends it to be illegal for the Church of England and the Church in Wales to offer same-sex marriages.

Forced to take sides, however, as many as 46% of adults think that the right of Churches to restrict religious marriages to a man and a woman should take precedence over the right of same-sex couples to get married, and this is strongly felt by the over-60s (64%) and Conservative voters (60%). Only 27% say that the right of same-sex couples should take priority over the Churches’ wishes, with a further 27% unsure. This pro-Church position partly reflects the concern expressed by 34% that campaigners would be able to use the Human Rights Act to get the courts to force religious bodies to offer same-sex marriages on their premises, even if they objected.  

Source: Online survey by YouGov of 1,729 adult Britons aged 18 and over on 9-10 December 2012. Data tables published on 11 December at:

http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/k6mqbjfspl/Same-sex-Marriage-101212.pdf

Inter-faith relationships

A majority of Britons (58%) is comfortable with the prospect of a child or grandchild entering into a serious relationship or marriage with someone who practises a different faith. This is a greater level of comfort than about relationships with a person with a disability or longstanding health condition (51%), somebody of the same sex (45%), a resident of another country (41%), a person 15 years older or younger (35%), an individual experiencing long-term unemployment (23%), or somebody with a criminal record (14%). However, it is a lower proportion than those prepared to contemplate a relationship across the racial or ethnic divide (62%), or with a person from a much poorer (68%) or wealthier (77%) background.

A further 26% are neutral in their views about inter-faith relationships, while 16% are uncomfortable. Discomfort is most keenly felt by those who are also uncomfortable about inter-racial relationships (44%), Asians (34%), non-whites in general (25%), residents of the Midlands and East of England (21%), and the over-65s (19%). An above-average level of comfort about inter-faith relationships is displayed by the top (AB) social group and the 55-64 age cohort, 63% in each case.

Source: Online survey by Britain Thinks on behalf of British Future, undertaken on 23-25 November 2012 among 2,149 Britons aged 18 and over. Topline data were published on 11 December 2012 in Rob Ford, Rachael Jolley, Sunder Katwala and Binita Mehta, The Melting Pot Generation: How Britain Became More Relaxed on Race (London: British Future, 2012) and available at:

http://www.britishfuture.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/12/The-melting-pot-generation.pdf

The full data tables can be found at:

http://britainthinks.com/sites/default/files/OmGeneration_Jessica_Dec11th.pdf

Online social networking

In a multinational survey undertaken earlier this year, Britain came top of the 21 nations surveyed for the proportion of adults (52%) reporting that they use online social networking sites such as Facebook, just ahead of the United States and Russia (50% each). However, among these users only a handful in Britain (8%) ever use these sites to share their views about religion, compared with 30% for politics, 35% for sports, 36% for community issues, and 49% for music and movies. Therefore, the recent upsurge of interest among religious agencies in deploying social media for evangelistic purposes may be somewhat misplaced in the British context. In fact, only two of the 20 other countries (Japan on 1% and Germany on 7%) recorded a lower incidence of social media use for sharing religious views, with France and Lebanon equaling Britain on 8%. At the other end of the spectrum, more than half the users of social media in Egypt, Jordan, Tunisia, and Turkey (with large Muslim populations) put social media to religious uses, with 32% doing so in the United States.   

Source: Telephone interviews with 1,018 Britons aged 18 and over between 19 March and 15 April 2012, conducted under the direction of Princeton Survey Research Associates International on behalf of the Pew Research Center and as part of the Pew Global Attitudes Project. Fieldwork was also undertaken in 20 other nations. Topline data published on 12 December in Social Networking Popular Across Globe, available at:

http://www.pewglobal.org/files/2012/12/Pew-Global-Attitudes-Project-Technology-Report-FINAL-December-12-2012.pdf

Religion in the armed forces

Members of the UK’s armed forces are still more inclined to claim a religious affiliation and to say they are Christian than the population as a whole, but the situation is changing fairly rapidly. On 1 April 2012 the proportion of armed forces personnel declaring no religion was 14.7%, up from 9.5% in 2007. It was lowest in the Army (11.9%) and highest in the Naval Service (20.1%), with 17.5% in the Royal Air Force. Across all three services the number of Christians declined from 89.7% in 2007 to 83.5% in 2012 (85.7% in the Army, 81.5% in the Royal Air Force, 78.9% in the Naval Service). That leaves a mere 1.9% in 2012 professing a non-Christian faith, an improvement on the 0.8% of five years earlier but still a significant underrepresentation in terms of society as a whole.

The religious affiliations of civilian personnel working for the armed forces have only been collected since 2008, and the declaration rate had still only climbed to 67.6% in 2012. Of those stating their religion in 2012, 24.1% said that they had none, very close to the English and Welsh average at the 2011 census (25.1%). The number of Christians was 70.8%, much higher than the 59.3% in the census, while non-Christians amounted to 5.1% (against 8.4% in the census). It should be remembered that the comparison with the census is not on a strict like-for-like basis since there was a non-response rate of 7.2% at the census.

Source: Ministry of Defence, United Kingdom Defence Statistics, 2012, tables 2.12 (armed forces) and 2.32 (civilian personnel, including a breakdown by pay band). Prepared by Defence Analytical Services and Advice, and published on 12 December 2012 at:

http://www.dasa.mod.uk/modintranet/UKDS/UKDS2012/pdf/ukds2012r1.pdf

 

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Chaplaincy to the Armed Forces

Posted on October 21, 2011 by Clive D. Field

The Ministry of Defence (MoD) is spending £22 million annually on employing 280 Christian chaplains across the three armed services, according to the MoD’s reply to a request under the Freedom of Information (FOI) Act made by the National Secular Society (NSS) and summarized in a press release issued by the NSS today. See:

http://www.secularism.org.uk/mod-spends-gbp22-million-a-year.html

In the light of this finding, the NSS has written to defence minister Andrew Robathan to question the expenditure, asking that either the Churches fund the chaplains themselves or the MoD converts their role into a secular ‘pastoral care’ service, for which anybody can apply. A MoD spokesman has said that chaplaincy spend is ‘currently being assessed’.

The FOI request also revealed that, as a rule, only 30% of chaplains are preparing for, on, or recovering from military operations at any one time. In the case of army chaplains, just 20 of 150 are currently on active service, while 18% are on medically limited deployability and a further 7% classed as medically non-deployable.

Christian chaplains employed by the MoD are commissioned officers, with a starting salary of £37,172, rising to £55,857 after 15 years. The armed forces also retain five civilian chaplains to care for Buddhist, Hindu, Sikh, Jewish and Muslim service personnel.

For the religious affiliation of the armed forces, see our recent post at:

http://www.brin.ac.uk/news/?p=1428

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UK Defence Statistics, 2011

Posted on September 30, 2011 by Clive D. Field

UK Defence Statistics, 2011, published online by the Ministry of Defence on 28 September 2011, shows that, compared with the Integrated Household Survey (IHS) for 2010-11, our armed forces remain nominally more religious than the rest of the population (doubtless, in part, a legacy of the historical institutionalization of religion in the forces). However, those who profess no religion are steadily increasing.

Table 2.13 reveals that 13.4% of armed forces personnel claimed to have no religion, when the snapshot was taken (1 April 2011), an increase of 0.8% on 2010 and of 3.9% on the 2007 figure. The proportion was higher in the Royal Navy (18.8%) and the Royal Air Force (16.2%) than in the Army (10.5%). Of the remainder, 85.0% were Christians (against 89.8% four years previously) and 1.6% from other religions (much smaller than the national average and perhaps a reflection of continuing underrepresentation of ethnic minorities in the services).

Table 2.33 analyses the religion of civilian personnel. The complication here is that religious affiliation was either undeclared or uncollected in the majority (52.6%) of cases. Of individuals providing a response, 71.7% were Christians, 5.0% non-Christians, and 23.2% categorized as ‘secular’ (this last figure is identical to the IHS statistic for all Britons). Trend data are given for 2008 (when Christians numbered 73.3% and seculars 21.4%), 2009 and 2010, and statistics are disaggregated by pay grades. There were fewest Christians (66.5% in 2011) at the most senior grades. 

Both tables can be viewed at:

http://www.dasa.mod.uk/modintranet/UKDS/UKDS2011/pdf/chapter2.pdf

BRIN’s coverage of the religion tables in UK Defence Statistics, 2010 remains available at:

http://www.brin.ac.uk/news/?p=622

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UK Defence Statistics, 2010

Posted on September 29, 2010 by Clive D. Field

We reported earlier in the year (http://www.brin.ac.uk/news/?p=151) on the statistics of religious affiliation in the armed forces collected by the Defence Analytical Services and Advice (DASA) section of the Ministry of Defence and annually published online in UK Defence Statistics.

The 2010 edition of UK Defence Statistics has been published by DASA today and is available in a variety of formats through its website at: http://www.dasa.mod.uk/. Table 2.13 presents the religious profession of the services at 1 April 2010, with comparisons for 2007-09.

Excluding the 1.4% of regular armed forces personnel whose religion was not recorded, the number of self-identifying Christians in 2010 is 85.9%, a reduction of almost four points on the 2007 figure of 89.8%.

However, there are still more Christians in the forces than in Great Britain as a whole, for which the figure stood at 71.4% in the 2009-10 Integrated Household Survey (IHS). The proportion is highest in the Army (88.2%), followed by the Royal Air Force (84.0%) and Royal Navy (81.6%).

Non-Christian religions account for only 1.5% of the armed services, far less than the 8.2% recorded in the IHS. This is probably mainly explained by the ethnic profile of the forces. Although the number of BMEs has been steadily increasing of late, there still appear to be relatively few Asians (see Tables 2.9 and 2.10).

In particular, the representation of Muslims in the services, at 0.3%, is well below the 4.2% found in the IHS. Their strongest showing is in the Army (0.5%). Their scarcity is unsurprising, given the hostility of many in the Muslim community to Britain’s military interventions in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Those professing no religion have increased from 9.5% in 2007 to 12.6% in 2010, which is again less than the IHS figure of 20.5%. They are much more likely to be found in the Royal Navy (17.7%) and Royal Air Force (15.2%) than in the Army (9.8%).   

Thus, our service personnel remain nominally more religious than the rest of us. This probably reflects their desire to have a spiritual ‘insurance policy’ in the event of the worst happening on active service, as well as the embedding of religion through a strong chaplaincy network.

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‘Onward Pagan Soldiers’ (Daily Mail)

Posted on June 8, 2010 by Clive D. Field

On 5 April 2010, we reported on ‘Religion in the Armed Forces’, based on an annual census of religious profession carried out by the Defence Analytical Services and Advice section of the Ministry of Defence (MoD).

The religious groupings used in the MoD’s published reports are relatively broad, not least when it comes to the category of ‘other religions’, which is said to cover ‘Druid, Pagan, Rastafarian, Spiritualist, Zoroastrian (Parsee), Wicca and Baha’i, among others’.

630 persons were included in this category as at 1 April 2009, the most recent year for which figures are available.

Now the Daily Mail has published a partial breakdown of their number, from data supplied by the MoD in response to a request under the Freedom of Information Act.

The tally of other religions in the armed forces apparently includes: 100 Pagans, 30 followers of Wicca, 60 Spiritualists and 50 Rastafarians.

See:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1284449/100-UK-servicemen-class-pagans-MoD-reveals.html

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In the Firing Line

Posted on April 20, 2010 by Clive D. Field

One of the more surprising religion-related news stories in recent weeks has been the row which developed over the use of models of ‘generic Eastern buildings’ on the Ministry of Defence (MoD)’s firing range at Bellerby, North Yorkshire. They were designed to simulate an overseas environment in which British troops might be operationally deployed.

However, the Bradford Council for Mosques thought the mock-ups looked suspiciously like mosques. Under a barrage of criticism, not just from Muslims, the Ministry issued a public apology and partly dismantled the offending structures.

YouGov tested popular opinion on the subject in an online survey among a representative sample of 2,404 adult Britons aged 18 and over on 9-12 April 2010. The results of this poll, with breaks by gender, age, social grade and region, are posted at:

http://today.yougov.co.uk/sites/today.yougov.co.uk/files/YG-Archives-Muslims-12.04.pdf

28% of respondents thought that it was wrong for the MoD to use mosque-like replicas on the firing range, with women (33%) and Scots (35%) being especially critical. 64% could find nothing specifically wrong in what the MoD had done, including 74% of men. There were 9% don’t knows.

35% wanted the mosque-like replicas to be changed, the figure rising to 41% for women and 45% for Scots. 54% (with 64% of men) thought they should be retained since they helped the training of the armed forces. 12% expressed no view either way.

30% agreed that the MoD had not thought or worried about the potential fallout from using the mosque-replicas, 39% disagreed, with 32% neutral or don’t knows.

29% agreed with the chairman of the Bradford Council for Mosques that the MoD’s actions reinforced existing negative perceptions of Muslims, implying that mosques were places of danger which were legitimate ‘targets’. The figure rose to 32% for women, 34% for those aged 18-34 and 35% for Londoners. 44% disagreed with the chairman, with 27% undecided.

In a subsequent online poll (12-14 April among 2,095 adults), YouGov asked respondents to imagine an alternative scenario, whereby a foreign defence ministry had used models of Christian churches on its firing ranges, to simulate the conditions of war in a Christian country.

Interestingly, opinion was more evenly divided in this case, 40% considering it would be wrong for the foreign defence ministry to do this (including 33% of men and 47% of women), and 42% finding nothing objectionable (57% of men and 27% of women).

In other words, 12% more of the population are worried about the use of replica churches on firing ranges than about the use of replica mosques. Perhaps this is another subtle manifestation of British Islamophobia?

This second YouGov poll can be found at:

http://today.yougov.co.uk/sites/today.yougov.co.uk/files/YG-Archives-Pope-12.04.pdf

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Religion in the Armed Forces

Posted on April 5, 2010 by Clive D. Field

The UK Ministry of Defence might seem an improbable source of religious statistics. In fact, it (and its predecessor departments) has long been enquiring into the religious affiliation of the armed forces, from the 1860s for the Army, the 1930s for the Royal Navy and the 1960s for the Royal Air Force.

Data-collection is now annual, with a census point of 1 April, through the Joint Personnel Administration System since 2007. Collation is undertaken by the Defence Analytical Services and Advice section of the Ministry of Defence, with publication via the annual (now online only) UK Defence Statistics.

Table 2.13 of the 2009 edition of UK Defence Statistics contains the religious affiliation of the UK’s regular armed forces (trained and untrained, but excluding reservists and Gurkhas), and disaggregated by service, for 2007, 2008 and 2009. It will be found at:

http://www.dasa.mod.uk/modintranet/UKDS/UKDS2009/pdf/c2/Chap2Table13.pdf

The number of armed forces personnel declaring they have no religion has risen over this triennium, from 9.5 to 11.6 per cent. The proportion is greatest in the Naval Service (15.7 per cent) and smallest in the Army (9.4 per cent), with the Royal Air Force at 13.9 per cent in 2009.

Even so, all the figures are relatively small and well below the 43.2 per cent of the adult population saying they had no religion in the British Social Attitudes (BSA) Survey in 2008, whose ‘Do you regard yourself as belonging to any particular religion?’ question is well-known for minimizing religious adherence. The corresponding 2001 population census figure for Great Britain was 15.1 per cent but has probably increased during the past nine years.

The overwhelming majority of the armed services claimed to be Christian (or of the Christian tradition, i.e. including non-Trinitarians) in 2009: 87.2 per cent overall, with 88.9 per cent in the Army, 85.9 per cent in the Royal Air Force and 83.6 per cent in the Naval Service. The equivalent 2008 BSA figure was 49.8 per cent. The 2001 population census figure for Great Britain was 71.8 per cent, using question-wording in England and Wales which some regard as ‘leading’.

Only 1.2 per cent of armed forces personnel registered as non-Christians, fewer than one-fifth of the 6.7 per cent recorded in the BSA and just one-tenth of the BSA statistic in the case of Muslims.

Of course, the two sets of data are not entirely compatible. The armed forces monitor the religion of their personnel as part of the gathering of essential background information, particularly at the point of recruitment. This information could have an intensely practical and operational purpose should a servicewoman or man be injured or killed on active duty, or otherwise fall ill while serving with the colours. This is somewhat analogous to (civilian) hospitals asking patients about their religion when being admitted for treatment. By contrast, the BSA survey simply poses its question in a way which has no potential longer-term implications.

At the same time, despite the abolition of compulsory church parades immediately after the Second World War, religion is quite institutionalized and embedded within the armed services, principally through a strong chaplaincy network (and an Armed Forces Chaplaincy Centre in Hampshire, to train and support the chaplains). This, plus the natural desire to take out a spiritual ‘insurance policy’ in the event of the worst happening in the front line, perhaps contributes to an explanation of why our armed forces are nominally so much more religious than the rest of us.

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