Sunday Times Religion Poll

Posted on March 17, 2013 by Clive D. Field

YouGov conducts a weekly online poll for The Sunday Times, and today’s edition includes a special module on religion (with particular reference to attitudes to the Church of England and the Roman Catholic Church), as well as analysing responses to political questions by religious affiliation (the upcoming budget and press regulation post-Leveson being prominent in this survey). Full data tables can be found at:

http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/qnktt3jc19/YG-Archive-Pol-Sunday-Times-results-15-170313.pdf

Coverage of the poll in the print edition of the newspaper is minimal, confined to just a couple of findings relating to the Catholic Church which are reported on page 25 of the main section. There seems to have been more editorial interest in the drinking habits of the new Archbishop of Canterbury, Justin Welby, which makes the lead story on the front page!

The sample comprised 1,918 Britons aged 18 and over interviewed on 14 and 15 March 2013, 71% of whom professed no religion. This is an unprecedentedly high number of ‘nones’, even by YouGov’s standards, and would suggest caution in using the affiliation data. Unfortunately, also, YouGov coded Church of Scotland to the Anglican responses, thus somewhat compromising the integrity of the category.

Attitudes to the Church of England

A majority of Britons (61%) consider the Church of England to be out of touch, peaking at 69% for those professing no religion and 73% among UKIP supporters. One-fifth (21%) see it as in touch, ranging regionally from 11% of Scots to 29% of Londoners, with 18% undecided. Among Anglicans a few more regard their Church as being in touch (45%) than not (43%), but that still constitutes substantial dissatisfaction.

A plurality of adults (48%, the same as in November 2012) criticizes the Church of England for opposing same-sex marriage, rising to 67% among the 18-24s and Liberal Democrats. Around two-fifths (39%) support the Church’s opposition, including 51% of Conservative and 72% of UKIP voters. Majorities of Anglicans (57%), Catholics (55%), and other Christians (53%) side with the Church. One in seven (14%) of the entire sample remain undecided.

Exactly four-fifths of Britons want the Church of England to allow women to become bishops, including 88% of Liberal Democrats and 82% of people with no religion. Just 11% do not favour women bishops (16% of Anglicans and 23% of non-Christians) and 10% cannot make up their minds.

A majority of adults (69%, including 76% of those professing no faith) believe Justin Welby to be wrong in condemning sex outside marriage, while 17% think he is right (including 30% of Anglicans and UKIP supporters), and 13% are unsure.  

A plurality of Britons (44%) disapprove of the recent criticism by Anglican bishops of the Coalition Government’s 1% cap on welfare benefits for the next three years, which is less than the current rate of inflation. The proportion increases to 72% among Conservative voters and even reaches 51% for Anglicans. Two-fifths (39%, but 60% of Labour voters and 56% of Catholics) back the bishops’ stance, with 17% uncertain what to think.

The country is evenly divided about whether bishops and other senior clergy should comment on political issues and Government policies: 44% contend they should and 43% that they should not. Labour and Liberal Democrat supporters are most likely to favour episcopal intervention, Conservative and UKIP voters to oppose it. Around three-fifths of Christians (58% of Anglicans, 59% of Catholics, 63% of other Christians) want bishops and other senior clergy to speak out, with 35% of Anglicans in disagreement. As many as 38% of people with no religion back the right of the Church to enter the political arena.

Attitudes to the Roman Catholic Church

Even more Britons (77%) regard the Roman Catholic Church as out of touch than do the Church of England, the figure hitting 82% among those with no religion and 87% among prospective UKIP voters. Just 10% view the Church as being in touch, with scarcely any variation by secular demographics, and 14% have no view on the matter. Most professing Catholics (59%) think their Church is out of touch, against 34% who say the opposite. 

Most Britons (78%) want the Catholic Church to allow priests to marry, albeit somewhat fewer of Catholics (70%). Only 7% (but 21% of Catholics) opt to uphold the celibacy rule, with 15% expressing no opinion.

Most adults (79%) consider the Church to have dealt badly with the issue of child abuse by its priests, the over-60s (87%) being particularly likely to say so. The majority of Catholics (62%) agree. A mere 7% of Britons think the Church has handled the crisis well, rising to 27% of Catholics, with 13% unsure.   

Asked whether the Catholic Church was right or wrong to have elected a new Pope from South America (Cardinal Bergoglio, now Francis I), 47% say that they do not know. Of the rest, 48% agree with the decision (among them 54% of the over-60s, 55% of Scots, and 77% of Catholics) and 5% disagree (peaking at 14% for non-Christians).

Religion and political attitudes

The relatively small number of interviewees professing a faith (29%) somewhat limits the potential of analysing political attitudes by religion. In general, the profile of replies for the no religion category does not vary markedly from that for all adults.

However, Anglicans are somewhat more likely than average to align with the Conservatives. For example, 38% say they would vote Conservative (against 29% of the whole sample), 35% approve of David Cameron’s performance as Prime Minister (32%), 24% consider George Osborne is doing well as Chancellor of the Exchequer (17%), and 25% want Osborne to remain in post (17%).

On the other hand, Catholics incline to back the Labour Party: 48% indicate that they would vote Labour (41% nationally), and 39% think Ed Miliband is doing well as Labour leader (30%). Catholics are similarly more unconvinced than all Britons (51% versus 45%) that the Coalition Government’s strategy for managing the economy will work over the long term.

 

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Religion and Voting and Other News

Posted on March 10, 2013 by Clive D. Field

Four stories are covered in today’s BRIN post, including new data on religion and prospective voting behaviour.

Religion and voting

Two new large-scale polls (from YouGov and Populus) shed light on the relationship between religion and voting intentions since UKIP’s emergence as the fourth force in British politics (so clearly demonstrated in the recent Eastleigh by-election). The studies show that prospective voters for the two parties towards the right of the political spectrum (Conservative and UKIP) are more likely to espouse a religion than those towards the left (Labour and Liberal Democrat). Summary results are set out in the table below, percentages reading downwards. 

  All Con Lab LibDem UKIP
YouGov

 

 

 

 

 
No religion

46

40

46

NA

39
Any religion

50

56

50

NA

59
No answer

4

4

4

NA

2
Populus

 

 

 

 

 
No religion

36

28

36

36

31
Any religion

62

71

62

62

68
No answer

2

2

2

2

1

It should be noted that the polls used different measures of religious affiliation, which explains why people of faith were less numerous in one than the other. The YouGov question wording is fairly neutral, making no assumptions about religious affiliation, whereas the Populus one might be considered to be somewhat leading, implying some expectation that respondents will belong to one of the religious groups.

The religious category was sub-divided in the Populus survey, enabling an assessment of the current voting intentions of adherents of the major faiths. The single most striking finding is that the majority (58%) of Muslims now incline to follow Labour, contrasting with the 2010 general election in which around one-third (36%) of Muslims recalled that they had actually voted for Labour, at a time when the party (then in government) was unpopular with Muslims because (especially) of its perceived anti-Islamic foreign policy. Also notable is that 54% of Jews support either the Conservatives or UKIP. Details are below (percentages reading across in this instance):

  Con Lab LibDem UKIP Other/none
Populus

 

 

 

 

 
No religion

18

29

7

7

39
Christian

27

28

6

10

29
Non-Christian

16

36

9

6

33
Muslim

8

58

8

1

25
Hindu

20

39

11

1

29
Jew

42

16

4

12

26
Buddhist

9

27

16

6

42

Source: Online surveys of adult Britons aged 18 and over conducted by a) YouGov throughout February 2013 (n = 28,944), the religious affiliation question being ‘do you regard yourself as belonging to any particular religion?’; and b) Populus for Lord Ashcroft on 22-31 January 2013 (n = 20,022), the religious affiliation question being ‘which of the following religious groups do you consider yourself to be a member of?’

The YouGov data were published on 5 March 2013 and are at:

http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/mse55iouje/UKIP-profile-Feb-2103.pdf

The Populus/Ashcroft data were published on 8 March 2013 and can be found in table 100 at:

http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/LibDem_Poll.pdf

Attitudes to Muslims

British Muslims continue to have a major public image problem, according to two recent polls commissioned by Matthew Goodwin of the University of Nottingham in connection with his Chatham House briefing paper on the English Defence League (EDL). This was published on 6 March 2013 as: The Roots of Extremism: The English Defence League and the Counter-Jihad Challenge.

In the second of Goodwin’s surveys, the proportion of all adult Britons responding to various statements about Muslims was as follows: 

  • 50% anticipated there will be a ‘clash of civilizations’ between British Muslims and native white Britons (26% disagreeing)
  • 44% agreed that free speech in Britain is threatened by the influence of Muslims in the media (32% disagreeing)
  • 43% agreed that differences in culture and values make future conflict between British-born Muslims and white Britons inevitable (28% disagreeing)
  • 31% disagreed that British-born Muslims generally share the culture and values of the majority society (36% agreeing)
  • 30% agreed that British Muslims pose a serious threat to democracy (41% disagreeing)
  • 23% disagreed that Muslims make an important contribution to British society (41% agreeing)
  • 12% disagreed that the vast majority of Muslims are good British citizens (62% agreeing)
  • 12% agreed that British Muslims are part of an international plot to abolish Parliament (54% disagreeing)

Source: Online survey by YouGov of 1,691 Britons aged 18 and over on 20-21 November 2012. Detailed table (with breaks by gender, age, social grade, region, and vote) available at:

http://www.chathamhouse.org/sites/default/files/public/Research/Europe/0313bp_goodwin_dataconflict.pdf

The first poll, likewise by YouGov and conducted online on 21-22 October 2012 among a sample of 1,666 Britons, focused on knowledge of and attitudes to the EDL. But it also posed several additional questions about Islam and Muslims, four of which are worth highlighting: 

  • 63% wanted the number of Muslims coming to Britain to be reduced
  • 57% considered Islam to present a serious danger to Western civilization
  • 52% believed higher Muslim birth rates threaten British national identity
  • 48% argued that Muslims are incompatible with the British way of life

The detailed tables from this poll are available as follows:

a) breaks by general demographics:

http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/nvm151779n/YG-Archive-221012-EDL-National-sample.pdf

b) breaks by general demographics and degree of support for the EDL:

http://www.chathamhouse.org/sites/default/files/public/Research/Europe/0313bp_goodwin_dataissues.pdf

Goodwin’s Chatham House paper is at:

http://www.chathamhouse.org/sites/default/files/public/Research/Europe/0313bp_goodwin.pdf

Islamist terrorism

Britons are somewhat less apprehensive about the threat of terrorism than they were in 2010, on the fifth anniversary of the London bombings. Even so, 44% currently think that a terrorist attack within the UK is very or moderately likely to happen in the next year, while 70% anticipate an incident as deadly as the 2005 London bombings occurring during their lifetimes. The source of the threat is most widely perceived to be al-Qaeda and ‘other Islamic-based terrorist groups’, with 68% currently concerned about them compared with 3% for residual terrorist groups in Northern Ireland. Anxiety about Islamist terrorism builds steadily with age, from 50% of the 18-34s to 81% of the over-55s, but otherwise varies little by key demographics.   

Source: Online survey by Angus Reid Public Opinion among 2,013 Britons aged 18 and over on 26-28 February 2013. Report and full data tables published on 4 March 2013 and available at:

http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/48686/fears-of-an-imminent-terrorist-attack-subside-in-britain/

Flesh and blood

Regular churchgoers in the UK are more likely to have given blood than the general public, according to new research. Whereas 9% of the former say they have given blood during the last year, no more than 4% of all adults have given blood in the past two years. Moreover, 33% of regular churchgoers claim to have registered as a blood donor (apparently with no statistically significant differences by denomination, gender, or age); while 48% report they have joined the NHS organ donor register, which is 17% more than in the population as a whole. Blood and organ donation is already considered as part of their personal Christian giving by 28% (rising to 35% of clergy and church leaders), with a further 42% being open to the idea. However, as experienced by these worshippers, three-quarters of churches do not mention or encourage either blood or organ donation.

Source: Survey of a representative sample of 3,171 UK Christians of all denominations attending church at least two to three times a month and agreeing that their faith is either the most important thing in their life or more important than most other things. They were drawn from the Christian Research Resonate panel of both church leaders and laity and interviewed online between 10 December 2012 and 9 January 2013. The study was undertaken on behalf of Kore in connection with the launch of the fleshandblood campaign, a partnership with NHS Blood and Transplant to mobilize the Church to increase the number of blood and organ donors in the UK. A summary report, Fleshandblood 2013 Research Results, was published on 5 March 2013 and is available at:

http://fleshandblood.org/resource/2013-research-results/

 

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Pope Benedict Departs and Other News

Posted on February 28, 2013 by Clive D. Field

Benedict XVI leaves the papal office today following his resignation earlier in the month, and it is fitting that he should be the lead story in our latest BRIN post. This mostly derives from YouGov’s February 2013 Eurotrack survey, but space has been found for a couple of miscellaneous items, too.

Pope Benedict departs

YouGov has taken the opportunity of Benedict XVI’s departure to ask the publics of six Western European countries (Great Britain, France, Germany, Denmark, Finland, and Sweden) how they rate his pontificate. Questions were included in the regular online Eurotrack undertaken between 21 and 27 February 2013, with 1,704 Britons aged 18 and over being interviewed (among them 117 professed Roman Catholics). Results have been disaggregated by religious affiliation within country (but not by other demographics) at:

http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/auqvjc212x/Eurotrack-February-2013.pdf

A press release about the survey has also been issued and can be found at:

http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/onzs1ox195/Pope_press_release.pdf

Asked whether Benedict had been right or wrong to resign as pope, 68% of Britons said right, similar to Denmark (67%), but lower than in Finland (71%), Sweden (72%), France (75%), and Germany (82%). In Britain 77% of the religious contended that he had made the right decision, including 79% of Catholics, compared with 64% of the religiously unaffiliated (29% of whom did not know what to think). Only 8% of Britons said that Benedict had been wrong to resign.

When it came to assessing how well or badly Benedict had done during his eight years as pope, a plurality of Britons (41%) expressed no view, with 36% thinking he had done well, and 23% badly. The positive figure was better than Sweden (18%), Denmark (24%), and France (33%), but nowhere near as good as in Germany (52%, the country from which he hails). Benedict’s performance was rated as good by 72% of British Catholics, 50% of all those professing a religion, 28% of non-Christians, and 26% of people without faith.

On specific aspects of his pontificate, Benedict was often judged to have been too conservative and to have changed things too little. In Britain 43% said that this had been true of theological issues such as women priests; 47% of moral issues such as birth control, abortion, and homosexuality; and 33% of social issues such as wealth and poverty. Catholics were as inclined to reach this verdict as the rest of the population. Otherwise, a principal difference by religious affiliation was the large number of ‘don’t knows’ to be found among non-Christians and those without religion.

In terms of Benedict’s political clout, only 9% of Britons considered that leading politicians in Britain had paid a great deal or a fair amount of notice to the views of Benedict and the British Catholic hierarchy, less than in Germany (33%) or France (18%), but fractionally more than in the Scandinavian countries. The overwhelming majority of Britons (71%), and even 78% of British Catholics, accepted that politicians had paid little or no notice to the pope and his bishops. Moreover, three-fifths of all Britons and 72% of the irreligious thought that politicians had been right not to have taken such notice, albeit 57% of Catholics disagreed.

More generally, respondents were asked whether four groups of religious leaders play a positive or negative role in the life of each country. In Britain (as can be seen from the table, below) a majority in three cases and a plurality in the other selected neither of these options, replying instead that they did not know or that the leaders made a limited impact on national life or that their role was equally positive and negative. 

 

Positive

Negative

Other
Protestant bishops and archbishops

21

22

57
Roman Catholic bishops and archbishops

16

33

51
Leading Jewish rabbis

19

17

64
Leading Muslim clerics

10

44

46

Among those expressing a clear opinion, Roman Catholic and Muslim leaders were especially seen in a critical light. Not unexpectedly, people who espoused a religion tended to be disproportionately more positive about religious leaders and the irreligious disproportionately more negative; however, when it came to Muslim leaders, both religious and irreligious were similarly negative. Catholics were most positive about their own bishops and archbishops.

On the characteristics of the next pope, many Britons could not get hugely exercised. They became most animated (in the sense of 44% saying they would be delighted) at the prospect of a pope who wanted to permit Catholic couples to use contraception. The proportion expressing delight at other scenarios was: a pope who advocated much stronger action to redistribute money within countries from rich to poor (24%); a pope who advocated that rich countries should spend far more on overseas aid (17%); a pope from Africa (11%); and a pope from South America (9%).

Religion and the current politico-economic situation

The YouGov Eurotrack study also included questions about current political and economic issues in Europe, the answers to which will be of interest to BRIN readers because they have been broken down by religious affiliation. Here we report on some of those for Britain alone, albeit the same level of detail is also available for the other five countries included in the survey.

Although most Britons (60%) disapprove of the Coalition Government’s record to date, the proportion is notably higher among those without a religion (65%) than those who profess some faith (56%), apart from Roman Catholics (68%, whose politics tend to be left-of-centre – see the next item, on the religious right). There is a corresponding gap in approval ratings of the Government: 32% by the religious (rising to 35% of non-Catholic Christians) and 20% of the faithless, with a national mean of 24%.

These judgments on the Government do not appear to correlate with perceived changes to the financial situation of respondents’ households during the previous twelve months. Whereas the religious are relatively more positive about the Government than the irreligious, it is the former whose households have suffered most: 60% reported that their finances had worsened a lot or a little against 51% of the religiously unaffiliated, with the number observing an improvement standing at 9% and 12% respectively.

On Britain’s membership of the European Union, people without religion (41%) were more likely than those with (33%) to say that they would vote in favour of continuing membership, in the event of a referendum being held, the national average being 36%. Nationally, 42% stated that they would vote to leave the European Union, comprising 49% of the religious and 38% of the irreligious. Among the religious, Catholics were most in favour of leaving (55%) and non-Christians the least (34%, with 43% wishing to stay in membership).

Naturally, it cannot be assumed that this spread of opinions is solely the function of the religion/irreligion factor, which is the only variable to be included in the YouGov tables. We know from other surveys that both religion and politics are independently impacted by secular demographics, and they will doubtless explain some of the variance noted above.

Religious right

In a new report from the Theos think-tank, Andy Walton (with Andrea Hatcher and Nick Spencer) asks Is There a ‘Religious Right’ Emerging in Britain? The question is answered in the negative, in the sense of there not being an American-style religious right at present, and the judgment being that there is little chance of one developing in the immediate future. Part of the evidence base for this conclusion is a ‘brief foray’ (pp. 34-45) into relevant social surveys, particularly the British Social Attitudes Surveys and the British Election Studies, although some use is also made of BRIN.

The findings which the authors particularly highlight are: a) the number of committed Christians in Britain is a relatively small proportion of the electorate, particularly in terms of evangelicals and Catholics, who form the backbone of the US religious right; b) only 9% of Britons with a religious affiliation say religion is very important in making political decisions, with less fixation with some of the specific issues which dominate the US political scene; and c) practising believers, albeit socially conservative, disproportionately espouse economic views which are left-of-centre, especially among Catholics. Is There a ‘Religious Right’ Emerging in Britain? can be found at:

http://www.theosthinktank.co.uk/files/files/Reports/IS%20THERE%20A%20RELIGIOUS%20RIGHT%20(NEW).pdf

Religion and education

The December 2012 issue (Vol. 33, No. 3) of Journal of Beliefs & Values is a special number, guest-edited by Elisabeth Arweck and Robert Jackson, devoted to religion and education. Specifically, it comprises a dozen articles reporting research projects which have been funded by the AHRC/ESRC Religion and Society Programme. Although the majority of contributions are of a qualitative nature, several authors deploy quantitative methods to varying degrees. From this standpoint, BRIN readers will probably be most interested in the two articles on young people’s attitudes to religious diversity by Leslie Francis and members of his research group (pp. 279-92, 293-307), which apply techniques from the psychology of religion and empirical theology. The papers include details of the theoretical underpinning, design and scope, and preliminary results of a study of approximately 10,000 years 9 and 10 pupils (aged 13-15) in state-maintained secondary schools in London, England, Wales, Scotland, and Northern Ireland. They report, respectively, on interim datasets of 3,020 and 5,993 cases.

An interesting revelation from the first paper is that ‘a negative view of Muslims is more prevalent among secular young people than among young people who are practising members of Christian churches. In this sense, Christianity is seen to promote acceptance, not rejection, of adherents of Islam.’ The second article illustrates how empathic capacity (in terms of attitudes to other religious groups) is more strongly related to God images than to religious affiliation or religious attendance. Secular factors (such as gender, neuroticism, and psychoticism) also make a difference in predicting the empathy of individuals. For titles, abstracts, and access options for all the articles in this special issue, go to:      

http://www.tandfonline.com/toc/cjbv20/33/3

 

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Sunday Times Religion Poll

Posted on November 11, 2012 by Clive D. Field

The Sunday Times took advantage of the expected announcement of the appointment of Justin Welby as the next Archbishop of Canterbury (eventually confirmed on 9 November) to include several questions on religion in the latest weekly omnibus poll which YouGov conducts on the newspaper’s behalf.

Online interviews were undertaken on 8 and 9 November 2012 with a representative sample of 1,642 Britons aged 18 and over, of whom 546 considered themselves to belong to the Church of England (even if not practising).

According to the study, rather more than one-third (37%) of all adults claim to believe in God, peaking among Anglicans (49%), those regarding themselves as richer than most people (47%), the over-60s (46%), women (43%), and Conservative voters (43%). One-fifth (21%) say they do not believe in God but do believe in some sort of spiritual higher power. Disbelievers in either God or a higher power number 29% and are particularly to be found among the 18-24s (39%) and men (37%). The remaining 13% do not know what to think about God.

Regular attendance (once a month or more) at a place of worship, other than for the rites of passage, is reported by 12% of Britons, rising to 17% in London, 18% for the self-designating rich, 19% of Scots, and 27% for believers in God. One-third are very occasional churchgoers (including 46% of Anglicans, 42% of Conservative voters, and 40% of the over-60s), while 53% admit that they never worship (with 59% among those aged 25-39, 62% of those considering themselves as poorer than most, and 84% of disbelievers in God).     

Turning to the Church of England, YouGov asked how well it had been led in recent years. Not unexpectedly, 36% found it hard to make an assessment (including 49% of Scots, 45% of under-40s, and 45% of disbelievers in God). Of the rest, just 28% think the Church has been well-led, Liberal Democrats and Anglicans being most positive, both on 42%, and 37% badly-led (with 46% of Conservatives, 46% of the over-60s, and 44% of men).

Naming names, the sample was then invited to rate the leadership of Rowan Williams, the outgoing Archbishop of Canterbury. Again, 39% could offer no view, with slightly more arguing he has done a good job (36%) than a bad job (25%). Most critical of Williams are Conservatives (39%), the over-60s (37%), and those perceiving themselves to be richer than most people (36%). More Anglicans assess that Williams has done a good job (49%) than the contrary (25%). A ComRes survey in England in August-September this year recorded a much higher approval rating (53%) for Williams’s leadership.

The majority (52%) found the next question completely beyond them, being unable to rank Williams against his predecessor Archbishops of Canterbury. Of those who ventured an answer (probably not well-informed in many cases), 4% judge Williams to be the best Archbishop of Canterbury of recent times, 7% one of the best Archbishops but not the very best, 17% a good Archbishop but not one of the very best, 11% a poor Archbishop but not one of the very worst, 4% one of the worst Archbishops of recent times but not the very worst, and 4% the worst Archbishop of recent times. Two-fifths of Anglicans describe Williams as the best, one of the best or a good Archbishop, compared with 28% of all Britons.

Two issues which are currently at the top of the Anglican in-tray are women bishops and same-sex marriage. Informed that Welby favours the former, respondents were asked whether the Church of England should permit women to become bishops. An overwhelming majority (77%) agree it should, including 89% of Liberal Democrat voters and 89% of the 18-24s, albeit just 69% of believers in God (and 80% of Anglicans). Only 9% of Britons are opposed (among them 16% of believers in God, 15% of Conservatives, and 13% of the over-60s and self-classifying rich), with 14% undecided.

Told that Welby does not endorse legalization of same-sex marriage, 51% of the sample went on to support a change in the law to enable such marriages to take place, the 18-24s (71%) and disbelievers in God (66%) being the strongest backers. Opponents numbered 38%, including 61% of the over-60s, 53% of believers in God, 52% of Conservatives, and 47% of Anglicans. 12% express no opinion.

In addition to these religious topics, replies to the political questions were all disaggregated by belief/disbelief in God and for the sub-group of Anglicans. The analysis reinforces some traditional stereotypes in that professing Anglicans are still more likely to vote Conservative than the norm (39% against 32%), while disbelievers in God or a spiritual higher power are more likely to be Labour voters than average (52% against 44%). On the other hand, the differences were only marginal when it came to the sample’s support for Barack Obama or Mitt Romney in the recent American presidential elections.

None of these findings is published in today’s print edition of The Sunday Times. However, the full data tables from this poll are freely available at:

http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/zksfqcd9sa/Sunday%20Times%20Results%2009-111112%20VI%20and%20Tracker.pdf

 

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September Snippets

Posted on September 23, 2012 by Clive D. Field

Herewith the headlines from five new sources of British religious statistics, arranged in order of their date of release:

Creationism versus Evolution

Whereas 51% of Americans still believe that God created human beings in their present form within the last 10,000 years, this view is shared by only 17% of Britons and 22% of Canadians. Some 69% of adults in Britain take the contrary line, that human beings evolved from less advanced life forms over millions of years, with the figure rising to 74% among men and residents of the South of England outside London (in London itself it fell to 60%, reflecting the capital’s ethnic and religious pluralism). 14% of Britons were unsure what to think. 

Source: Survey by Angus Reid Public Opinion released on 5 September 2012. Online interviews were conducted with 2,010 Britons aged 18 and over on 30 and 31 August 2012, and also with representative samples of Americans and Canadians around the same time. Report available at:

http://www.angus-reid.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/09/2012.09.05_CreEvo.pdf

Religion Hate Crimes in England and Wales, 2011/12

There were 1,621 religion-related hate crimes recorded by the police in England and Wales in 2011/12, representing 4% of all hate crimes. This was a similar number to disability hate crimes but was overshadowed by the 35,816 race hate crimes. Religion hate crimes occurred in each police force area, albeit they only reached three figures in the Metropolitan Police Area and Greater Manchester, where they accounted respectively for 8% and 6% of all hate crimes. Three-quarters of religion hate crimes involved violence against the person, 19% criminal damage, and 6% other notifiable offences. Data for previous years have been published by the Association of Chief Police Officers but they are not strictly comparable with those now collated (for the first time) by the Home Office.

Source: Home Office statistical news release and tables of 13 September 2012, available at:

http://www.homeoffice.gov.uk/publications/science-research-statistics/research-statistics/crime-research/hate-crimes-1112/hate-crimes-1112

Women Bishops

79% of English adults agree that the Church of England should allow women to become bishops. This compares with 74% of Britons in another poll (ComRes in July) and 85% of regular Anglican churchgoers (Christian Research in March-May). Proponents were most numerous among the under-35s and female respondents. Opposition, 11% overall, ran highest with the over-65s (20%). In the event of the Church not allowing women to become bishops (the matter is still being debated by the hierarchy and General Synod), 20% said that they would take a less favourable view of the Church, rising to 31% among the 18-24s. 67% claimed that it would make no difference to what they thought about the Church, the majority (38%) of whom already regarded the Church negatively (the 25-34s, skilled manual workers, and residents of North-East England being especially critical, all on 45%).   

Source: ComRes survey for BBC Local Radio released on 13 September 2012. Telephone interviews were conducted with 2,594 English adults between 24 August and 9 September 2012. Data tables available at:

http://www.comres.co.uk/polls/BBC_Religion_Women_Bishops_September2012.pdf

Cameron versus Miliband

Asked to rate Prime Minister David Cameron and Labour leader Ed Miliband on a variety of attributes, 34% of electors considered Cameron to be the stronger ‘man of faith’, with only 16% saying the same of Miliband. The remaining 50% thought that neither deserved the designation or did not know. Cameron was most likely to be regarded as the stronger man of faith by Conservative voters, those satisfied with the Coalition Government, and the over-65s, while Labour supporters, the 18-24s, Northerners and manual workers disproportionately identified Miliband as the stronger man of faith. The reality, to judge by what they have said in interviews, is that Cameron has ‘a sort of fairly classic Church of England faith, a faith that grows hotter and colder by moments’, and that Miliband professes atheism although sometimes plays up his family’s Jewish roots.

Source: Ipsos MORI poll for the Evening Standard, released on 19 September 2012. Telephone interviews were conducted with 1,006 adult Britons aged 18 and over between 15 and 17 September 2012. Full results contained in Tables 45 and 46 at:

http://www.ipsos-mori.com/Assets/Docs/Polls/ipsos-mori-political-monitor-september-2012-tables.pdf

Interest in Church Weddings

Unique visits to www.yourchurchwedding.org, the Church of England’s one-stop weddings website, increased by 50% between 2010 and 2011. The Church credits the growing interest in church weddings to the change in the law in 2008, which made it easier to marry in church, and to the Church’s greater visibility at wedding shows. The Daily Telegraph for 21 September 2012 also highlighted the positive effect of the wedding of the Duke and Duchess of Cambridge at Westminster Abbey in 2011. The actual number of marriages solemnized in the Church of England in 2011 is not yet known, but it was 54,710 in 2010, 4% more than in 2009.

Source: Church of England press release of 20 September 2012, available at:

http://churchofengland.org/media-centre/news/2012/09/interest-in-church-weddings-up-nearly-50-per-cent.aspx

 

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August YouGov Polls on Political Issues

Posted on September 19, 2012 by Clive D. Field

Herewith a round-up of recent YouGov polls touching on the interaction of religion and politics.

‘Doing God’

The majority of Britons are keen to keep religion apart from politics, according to a study published on 13 September 2012. 81% affirmed that religious practice is a private matter, which should be separated from British politico-economic life; 76% agreed that religious leaders should not influence how people vote in elections; 71% disagreed that religious leaders should have influence over the decisions of Government; 66% disagreed that politicians who did not share respondents’ own religious beliefs should not run for public office; and 65% disagreed that Britain would be a better place if more religious leaders held public office. Fewer than one in ten took the opposite stance on all these measures, with the remainder neutral or undecided, albeit as many as 16% wanted Christianity to play a greater role in British politics. Asked how much influence religion already has in British politics, 53% opted for the mid-positions (3-6) on a scale of 0-10, with 10% uncertain. Doubtless, the results were informed by the fact that 53% of the sample (including 69% of 18-24s) did not regard themselves as belonging to any particular religion.

Source: YouGov survey for YouGov@Cambridge in which 2,027 adult Britons were interviewed online between 10 and 19 August 2012. Data tables available at:

http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/md6rf2qvws/Reputation%20UK%20Report_21-Aug-2012_F.pdf

The survey was also conducted in the United States, France, Germany, the Middle East and North Africa, Pakistan and China. The multinational topline data are at:

http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/yf07oalgnu/Reputation%20x-country%20Report_24-Aug-2012_F.pdf

Islamophobia

Political parties of the far right are likely to take comfort from a poll released on 17 September 2012 which suggested that Islamophobia is a potential vote-winner. As many as 37% of electors indicated that they were more likely to vote for a party that promised to reduce the number of Muslims and the presence of Islam in British society, compared with 23% who said that they would be less likely to vote for a party pursuing such an agenda and 31% that it would make no difference. Those more likely to vote for a party under these circumstances were especially numerous among Conservatives (50%), the over-60s (49%), manual workers (45%), and Northerners (42%). Those less likely to vote for such a party were concentrated among Liberal Democrats (52%), the 18-24s (42%), Scots (33%), the 25-39s (32%), Londoners (31%), and non-manual workers (30%).

Source: YouGov survey for the Extremis Project (Matthew Goodwin) in which 1,725 adult Britons were interviewed online between 19 and 20 August 2012. Data tables available at:

http://extremisproject.org/2012/09/extremis-projectyougov-data-and-results/

Sunday Trading after the Olympic and Paralympic Games (1)

44% of Britons favour the permanent abolition of the legislative restrictions on the Sunday trading hours of large shops, which were temporarily suspended for the eight weeks around the Olympic and Paralympic Games. This would allow such shops to open for as long as they choose. 37% wanted to see the normal restrictions (a maximum of six hours between 10 a.m. and 6 p.m.) reactivated, while 11% argued for an even tighter regime, with a total ban on large stores opening on Sundays. Advocates of permanent abolition were particularly to be found in Scotland (66%), to which the law does not apply, in any case. The over-60s (17%) most desired a return to the ‘traditional Sunday’, pre-dating the Sunday Trading Act 1994, a time when large stores ordinarily could not open at all.

Source: YouGov survey for The Sunday Times in which 1,731 adult Britons were interviewed online between 23 and 24 August 2012. Data tables available at:

http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/sdx6k0u8c5/YG-Archives-Pol-ST-results-24-260812.pdf

Sunday Trading after the Olympic and Paralympic Games (2)

A similar number (45%) to the previous poll supported the permanent extension of Sunday trading hours after the summer Games, with 83% of them backing wholly unrestricted hours. 24% considered that such a move would boost the ailing UK economy, and 22% anticipated that they would shop more on Sunday if hours are liberalized. At the same time, although 82% were aware of the temporary relaxation in opening hours during the Games, only 24% of these overall (rising to 39% of 18-34s) had actually taken advantage of the change. 39% believed that the Government will eventually legislate to relax Sunday trading laws. 16% opposed shops being allowed to open at all on Sundays.

Source: YouGov survey for business law firm DWF in which 2,045 adult Britons were interviewed online between 24 and 27 August 2012. Summary findings only available in DWF press release of 7 September 2012 at:

http://www.dwf.co.uk/insight/dwf-press/shoppers-back-longer-sunday-hours

 

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Anti-Conservative Vote

Posted on April 30, 2012 by Clive D. Field

Religion is the single most powerful predictor (among eight factors) of an individual’s likelihood to say that they would never vote Conservative, with 44% of those with no faith rejecting the possibility of supporting the Tories, compared with 35% of Muslims, 32% of Christians, 26% of Sikhs, and 19% of Hindus. Just 15% overall stated that they would never vote Labour, including 7% of Muslims, 6% of Hindus, and 5% of Sikhs.

These findings emerged from a new report – Degrees of Separation: Ethnic Minority Voters and the Conservative Party – released by Lord Ashcroft (businessman, author and philanthropist, and ex-Deputy Chairman of the Conservative Party) on his blog on 28 April 2012, and featured in the Sunday Telegraph the following day. The 50-page report and 159 pages of data tables are available at: 

http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2012/04/ethnic-minority-voters-and-the-conservative-party-2/

10,268 adults living in the census-defined Middle Layer Super Output Areas with the highest concentration of black and minority ethnic (BME) persons were interviewed by telephone on Ashcroft’s behalf between 24 October and 4 December 2011. These areas, which are largely urban and working class in profile, account for 70% of the BME population of England and Wales.

The sample included 4,590 self-identifying Christians, 513 Hindus, 1,747 Muslims, 308 Sikhs, 761 other religions, and 2,124 of no religion. Christians and those of no religion were overwhelmingly white (77% and 84%), with 94% of Sikhs and 90% of Hindus Asians. 67% of Muslims were Asian, 12% white, and 11% black.

In the May 2010 general election 24% of Christians recalled that they had voted Conservative, against 18% of Hindus, 15% of Sikhs, 13% of no religion, and 12% of Muslims. The Labour vote had been highest among Muslims (41%) and lowest for Christians (28%), with Hindus and Muslims on 35% and 37% respectively. Non-voters were above the average of 29% for Muslims (31%) and those of no religion (33%).

In the event of a general election being held ‘tomorrow’, only 6% of Muslims said they would vote Conservative, 7% of Sikhs, 13% of no religion, 14% of Hindus, and 20% of Christians and other religions. 51% of Muslims, 48% of Sikhs, 37% of Hindus, 33% of Christians and those of no religion, and 31% of other religions inclined to support Labour. 

Asked whether they identified with one political party as consistently representing people like themselves, only 5% of Muslims and 9% of Hindus and Sikhs replied the Conservative Party (against 15% of Christians and 8% of no religion). The affinity of 47% of Muslims, 46% of Sikhs, 38% of Hindus, 30% of Christians, and 23% of those with no religion was with the Labour Party.  

Of all religions, Muslims were especially prone to say that the Conservative Party (41%) and David Cameron (38%) do not really care about people from different ethnic or religious backgrounds. However, these figures were somewhat exceeded by those professing no religion (44% and 39%). 8% of Muslims saw the Conservatives and Cameron as actively hostile to individuals from different ethnic or religious backgrounds.

Correlated component regression analysis was used to isolate specific views most often associated with an unwillingness to vote Conservative among BME religious groups. For Muslims the strongest drivers were found to be a perception that the Conservative Party does not stand for fairness, is actively hostile to people from different ethnic and religious backgrounds, and that its policies have shown this to be the case.

Non-Christians and those without faith were somewhat more likely than Christians to believe that the economy and employment were the most important issues facing the country. Muslims (57%) were far more likely to prioritize education than Christians (38%), and, together with those of no religion, much less likely than Christians, Hindus and Sikhs to see control of immigration as a key topic (one-quarter for the two former versus two-fifths for the three latter groups).

It must be reiterated that the main purpose of Ashcroft’s survey was to probe BME attitudes to the Conservative Party. Its underlying sample was not nationally representative, especially in terms of social class and locality. Also, for BMEs the Ethnic Minority British Election Study (EMBES) is an important alternative dataset. Some preliminary analysis of this by religion was posted on BRIN’s website last year by Ben Clements and Maria Sobolewska at:

http://www.brin.ac.uk/news/2011/the-ethnic-minority-british-election-study-embes-part-ii/

and

http://www.brin.ac.uk/news/2011/religion-and-politics-among-ethnic-minorities-in-britain/

 

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London Mayoral Elections

Posted on April 18, 2012 by Clive D. Field

Just a week after the publication of the Demos report Faithful Citizens, which established linkages between people of faith and progressive politics, comes evidence that religious issues are creeping into the forthcoming and hotly-contested elections for London’s Mayor.

This is suggested by a YouGov poll for the Evening Standard, conducted online between 13 and 15 April 2012 among a sample of 1,060 Greater London residents aged 18 and over. The full data tables are available at:

http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/q040gzgswz/YG-Archives-EveningStandard-MayoralRace-160412.pdf

One of the questions asked was about the eleventh-hour intervention of the current London Mayor, the Conservative Boris Johnson, to block an advertising campaign on the capital’s buses by two Christian groups (Core Issues Trust and Anglican Mainstream).

The proposed advertisement appeared to suggest, as Johnson saw it, that ‘being gay is an illness that someone recovers from’. The poster was widely regarded as mocking one by the pro-gay group Stonewall which implied that homosexuality is perfectly natural.

51% of Londoners thought that Johnson had been right to ban the advert, rising to 58% of his own supporters, 12% more than among the backers of Labour’s Mayoral candidate (Ken Livingstone), who one might have expected to have taken an even tougher pro-equality stance.

Women were more likely to endorse Johnson’s actions in the affair than men, the 18-24s more than older age cohorts, non-manual workers than manuals, and whites than non-whites. 26% opposed Johnson’s intervention, with 24% undecided.

More generally, 48% of voters thought that, in his election campaign, Johnson wanted to help some groups more than others (with 35% convinced he was out to assist all Londoners). Of the former sub-sample, 78% identified rich Londoners as the group being advantaged by Johnson and 23% white Londoners. Only 5% each said Jews or Muslims, although the proportion reached 11% and 13% respectively among those intending to vote for Johnson as Mayor.

Slightly more of the whole sample, 53%, believed that Livingstone was out disproportionately to benefit only some groups of Londoners. Of these, 41% were convinced he wanted to help Muslims (rising to 53% among the over-60s), 40% Black and Asian Londoners, and 40% poor Londoners.

9% (and 12% of his own supporters) saw Livingstone as out to favour Jews, a figure which may be slightly inflated on account of the humble pie Livingstone has been publicly eating following his recent suggestion that Jews would not vote Labour because they are too rich.

This is not the first time that Livingstone has incurred the wrath of British Jewry. In 2005, when in his second term as Mayor of London himself (he was unseated by Johnson in 2008), he got into very hot water by refusing to apologize for likening a Jewish reporter to a concentration camp guard. Public attitudes to the controversy were tested out in a ComRes survey at the time, in which 50% thought that Livingstone had been wrong not to apologize and 32% right.

Coming back to the current YouGov poll, it would appear that London’s Jews are not seen as being especially courted by either of the two main Mayoral candidates. However, whether true or not, Livingstone is obviously perceived as making a strong pitch for the Muslim vote, in contrast to Johnson. 22% of all Londoners think Livingstone has the Muslim vote in his sights.

This accords with a widespread view in the 1980s and 1990s that Muslims particularly favoured Labour, but that all seems to have changed with Muslim opposition to the Labour administration’s military involvement in Iraq and Afghanistan in the 2000s.

Doubtless, fresh in Livingstone’s mind are the lessons of the recent by-election in Bradford West where Respect’s George Galloway inflicted a heavy defeat on Labour’s candidate (Imran Hussain), with a 37% swing, apparently as a result of a widespread defection of Muslims from Labour to Respect.   

 

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Western European Religion

Posted on March 16, 2012 by Clive D. Field

There is no real consensus of public opinion in matters of religion, according to a new multinational poll from YouGov@Cambridge, published in connection with a symposium on the future of Europe, held at the British Academy on 15 March 2012.  

Fieldwork was conducted online among representative samples of around 1,500 adults in each of seven Western European nations (Britain, France, Germany, Italy, Norway, Sweden, and Denmark) between 24 February and 6 March 2012. Topline data are at:

http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/6xufjlailj/Eurozone%20Crisis%20-%20Cross-Country%20Report_06-Mar-2012_F.pdf

The religion-related questions amounted to something of a pot-pourri, certainly in relation to the more systematic questions about membership of the European Union and the European economic crisis, but are nevertheless not without interest.

Of the seven countries Italy generally emerged as the most ‘religious’ nation and Sweden as the least. Britain’s position fluctuated, with one-quarter or more of its citizens sitting on the fence on religious issues and others holding seemingly inconsistent views.

The three matters on which an absolute majority of Britons agreed were all rather negative: that organized religion is in terminal decline, that Christians and the Church should not be permitted to have more influence over domestic politics, and that Muslims are poorly integrated into mainstream society. Here are the headlines:

  • 24% of Britons agreed that there are some things in life which only religion can explain (France 21%, Germany 24%, Italy 36%, Norway 22%, Sweden 18%, Denmark 18%), but 49% disagreed and 23% were undecided 
  • 30% of Britons believed in a personal God (France 22%, Germany 34%, Italy 55%, Norway 28%, Sweden 19%, Denmark 26%) and a further 10% in a higher spiritual power, with 21% disbelieving, 17% agnostic and 22% uncertain 
  • 39% of Britons felt that it is good for children to be brought up within a religion (France 46%, Germany 44%, Italy 59%, Norway 27%, Sweden 19%, Denmark 31%), more than who said the opposite (23%) or who expressed no opinion (34%) 
  • 55% of Britons agreed that organized religion is in terminal decline in their country (France 38%, Germany 26%, Italy 54%, Norway 33%, Sweden 49%, Denmark 33%), with only 13% disagreeing and 26% uncertain 
  • 35% of Britons contended that the decline of organized religion has made or would make the country a worse place (France 24%, Germany 20%, Italy 32%, Norway 22%, Sweden 17%, Denmark 15%), against 32% who disagreed and 27% who did not know 
  • 25% of Britons thought that some religions are better than others (France 20%, Germany 19%, Italy 21%, Norway 37%, Sweden 29%, Denmark 29%), compared with 39% who disagreed and 31% undecided 
  • 15% of Britons wanted Christians and the Church to have more influence over domestic politics (France 14%, Germany 13%, Italy 16%, Norway 11%, Sweden 9%, Denmark 5%), but 58% disagreed and 23% were neutral 
  • 19% of Britons thought that most Muslims were integrated with national customs and way of life (France 24%, Germany 12%, Italy 19%, Norway 14%, Sweden 18%, Denmark 19%), while 56% disagreed and 19% were unsure

 

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