Science and Technology Committee on the Census

Posted on September 21, 2012 by Clive D. Field

‘MPs have warned that a decision to discontinue the census would have a negative impact on the Government’s social science analysis, as well as social science research in the UK, and that alternative systems for collecting population data may not prove to be any cheaper.’

These are the headlines from the enquiry undertaken by the House of Commons Science and Technology Committee, chaired by Andrew Miller MP, into The Census and Social Science, whose two-volume report was published today (21 September 2012) as HC 322. It is available at:

http://www.parliament.uk/business/committees/committees-a-z/commons-select/science-and-technology-committee/news/120921science-and-social-science-report-published/

The context for the study is the consultation Beyond 2011, which is being undertaken by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) into the alternatives to running a full population census in 2021. ONS will report its findings in 2014. The census has its detractors, especially those who regard it as costly and failing to provide timely enough data.

The Select Committee’s report is relatively brief (thirty pages) and generic. It does not explicitly mention religion, which has been the subject of a census question in 2001 and 2011. However, the importance of religious data is recognized in about a dozen of the forty-two submissions of written evidence and in oral evidence given by Professor Leslie Mayhew of City University. The oral and written evidence is included in the report.

Only two of the submissions of written evidence came from religious bodies: the Salvation Army and the Institute for Jewish Policy Research jointly with the Board of Deputies of British Jews. Both were naturally concerned about the census as a source of community statistics as well as of specifically religious data.

The fact that faith communities in general failed to respond to the Select Committee’s enquiry is perhaps surprising, given that several were active from the 1970s onwards in pressing for the inclusion of a religion question in the census. Seemingly, they do not identify strongly with social scientific research. Hopefully, they will be contributing to the ONS consultation in other ways.

 

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Eighteenth-Century Religious Statistics

Posted on September 21, 2012 by Clive D. Field

The statistical analysis of religion in England and Wales has usually commenced with the mid-nineteenth century, but the first holistic quantification of eighteenth-century religious adherence has now been published, as a contribution to the BRIN project, in Clive Field, ‘Counting Religion in England and Wales: the Long Eighteenth Century, c. 1680-c. 1840’, Journal of Ecclesiastical History, Vol. 63, No. 4, October 2012, pp. 693-720.

Through synthesis of a wide range of primary and secondary sources, and some extrapolation, initial estimates of the religious composition of the population in 1680, 1720, 1760, 1800, and 1840 have been produced. These are summarized in Figure 2 in the article, reproduced below, which expresses the raw data as a percentage of the population.

 

  1680 1720 1760 1800 1840
Nominal Anglicans

94.4

92.0

93.6

88.2

76.9
Old Dissenters

4.2

6.2

3.2

5.3

8.4
Arminian Methodists

–

–

0.7

3.2

10.0
Other Nonconformists

0.2

0.4

1.3

1.5

1.5
Roman Catholics

1.1

1.3

1.1

1.4

2.7
Jews

*

0.1

0.1

0.3

0.2
No religion

–

–

–

0.1

0.3

 

The table reveals that the Church of England lost almost one-fifth of its affiliation market share during this ‘long’ eighteenth century. Protestant Nonconformity more than quadrupled, mainly from 1760 and especially after 1800. Roman Catholicism kept pace with demographic growth, but, even reinforced by Irish immigration, remained a limited force in 1840. Judaism and overt irreligion were both negligible.

By kind permission of the copyright owner, Cambridge University Press, and strictly for individual and non-commercial research use, the full text of this article has been made available on the author’s personal webpage at:

http://clivedfield.files.wordpress.com/2012/03/eighteenth-century-statistics-published.pdf

For all other uses, article rental and purchase options will be found on the publisher’s site at:

http://journals.cambridge.org/action/displayAbstract?fromPage=online&aid=8694183&fulltextType=RA&fileId=S0022046911002533

The article does not address in any detail the question of religious practice, the extent to which people attended public worship on Sundays. However, much of the extant evidence for this topic has been previously collated in Clive Field, ‘A Shilling for Queen Elizabeth: the Era of State Regulation of Church Attendance in England, 1552-1969’, Journal of Church and State, Vol. 50, No. 2, Spring 2008, pp. 213-53.  

Anglican clergy visitation returns constitute one of the best sources for eighteenth-century religious practice. A close analysis of one set of such returns, for the Diocese of Salisbury in 1783, will be published in the next issue of Wiltshire Studies: Clive Field, ‘Status animarum: a Religious Profile of the Diocese of Salisbury in the 1780s’.

Scholarly editions of eighteenth-century visitation returns are increasingly appearing in print. One recent example is The Visitation Records of Archdeacon Joseph Plymley, 1792-1838, edited by Sylvia Watts, Shropshire Record Series, Vol. 11-12, Keele: Centre for Local History, Keele University, 2010-11.

From this edition it can be calculated that the average congregation at the best attended service in 19 Anglican parish churches in the Archdeaconry of Salop in 1792-94 was equivalent to 26% of the population. Attendance was often said to depend upon the state of the weather, and thus of the roads, in more scattered settlements.

 

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August YouGov Polls on Political Issues

Posted on September 19, 2012 by Clive D. Field

Herewith a round-up of recent YouGov polls touching on the interaction of religion and politics.

‘Doing God’

The majority of Britons are keen to keep religion apart from politics, according to a study published on 13 September 2012. 81% affirmed that religious practice is a private matter, which should be separated from British politico-economic life; 76% agreed that religious leaders should not influence how people vote in elections; 71% disagreed that religious leaders should have influence over the decisions of Government; 66% disagreed that politicians who did not share respondents’ own religious beliefs should not run for public office; and 65% disagreed that Britain would be a better place if more religious leaders held public office. Fewer than one in ten took the opposite stance on all these measures, with the remainder neutral or undecided, albeit as many as 16% wanted Christianity to play a greater role in British politics. Asked how much influence religion already has in British politics, 53% opted for the mid-positions (3-6) on a scale of 0-10, with 10% uncertain. Doubtless, the results were informed by the fact that 53% of the sample (including 69% of 18-24s) did not regard themselves as belonging to any particular religion.

Source: YouGov survey for YouGov@Cambridge in which 2,027 adult Britons were interviewed online between 10 and 19 August 2012. Data tables available at:

http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/md6rf2qvws/Reputation%20UK%20Report_21-Aug-2012_F.pdf

The survey was also conducted in the United States, France, Germany, the Middle East and North Africa, Pakistan and China. The multinational topline data are at:

http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/yf07oalgnu/Reputation%20x-country%20Report_24-Aug-2012_F.pdf

Islamophobia

Political parties of the far right are likely to take comfort from a poll released on 17 September 2012 which suggested that Islamophobia is a potential vote-winner. As many as 37% of electors indicated that they were more likely to vote for a party that promised to reduce the number of Muslims and the presence of Islam in British society, compared with 23% who said that they would be less likely to vote for a party pursuing such an agenda and 31% that it would make no difference. Those more likely to vote for a party under these circumstances were especially numerous among Conservatives (50%), the over-60s (49%), manual workers (45%), and Northerners (42%). Those less likely to vote for such a party were concentrated among Liberal Democrats (52%), the 18-24s (42%), Scots (33%), the 25-39s (32%), Londoners (31%), and non-manual workers (30%).

Source: YouGov survey for the Extremis Project (Matthew Goodwin) in which 1,725 adult Britons were interviewed online between 19 and 20 August 2012. Data tables available at:

http://extremisproject.org/2012/09/extremis-projectyougov-data-and-results/

Sunday Trading after the Olympic and Paralympic Games (1)

44% of Britons favour the permanent abolition of the legislative restrictions on the Sunday trading hours of large shops, which were temporarily suspended for the eight weeks around the Olympic and Paralympic Games. This would allow such shops to open for as long as they choose. 37% wanted to see the normal restrictions (a maximum of six hours between 10 a.m. and 6 p.m.) reactivated, while 11% argued for an even tighter regime, with a total ban on large stores opening on Sundays. Advocates of permanent abolition were particularly to be found in Scotland (66%), to which the law does not apply, in any case. The over-60s (17%) most desired a return to the ‘traditional Sunday’, pre-dating the Sunday Trading Act 1994, a time when large stores ordinarily could not open at all.

Source: YouGov survey for The Sunday Times in which 1,731 adult Britons were interviewed online between 23 and 24 August 2012. Data tables available at:

http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/sdx6k0u8c5/YG-Archives-Pol-ST-results-24-260812.pdf

Sunday Trading after the Olympic and Paralympic Games (2)

A similar number (45%) to the previous poll supported the permanent extension of Sunday trading hours after the summer Games, with 83% of them backing wholly unrestricted hours. 24% considered that such a move would boost the ailing UK economy, and 22% anticipated that they would shop more on Sunday if hours are liberalized. At the same time, although 82% were aware of the temporary relaxation in opening hours during the Games, only 24% of these overall (rising to 39% of 18-34s) had actually taken advantage of the change. 39% believed that the Government will eventually legislate to relax Sunday trading laws. 16% opposed shops being allowed to open at all on Sundays.

Source: YouGov survey for business law firm DWF in which 2,045 adult Britons were interviewed online between 24 and 27 August 2012. Summary findings only available in DWF press release of 7 September 2012 at:

http://www.dwf.co.uk/insight/dwf-press/shoppers-back-longer-sunday-hours

 

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British Social Attitudes, 2011

Posted on September 18, 2012 by Clive D. Field

The twenty-ninth report from the British Social Attitudes (BSA) Survey was published by NatCen Social Research on 17 September 2012, less than a year after the completion of the fieldwork (June-November 2011) on which it is based.

As usual, the 2011 BSA was undertaken through a combination of face-to-face interviews and self-completion questionnaires with adult Britons aged 18 and over. The full sample comprised 3,311 individuals, albeit some questions were put only to sub-samples.

Edited by Alison Park, Elizabeth Clery, John Curtice, Miranda Phillips and David Utting, the book-length report on British Social Attitudes, 29 is available for free download from:

http://www.bsa-29.natcen.ac.uk/media/13421/bsa29_full_report.pdf

The annotated questionnaire for the survey can be found at:

http://www.bsa-29.natcen.ac.uk/media/11241/annotated_questionnaire_2011.pdf

Although the dataset is not yet available through the Economic and Social Data Service, the 2011 data have already been loaded into the British Social Attitudes Information System, through whose website weighted results for each question can be viewed, disaggregated by demographics. Go to:

http://www.britsocat.com/Home

There was no special module on religion in the 2011 survey, but several questions of potential interest to BRIN users were included.

Asked whether they regarded themselves as belonging to any particular religion, 44% of adults replied in the negative. This was a lower proportion than in 2010 (50%) but much higher than when the question had first been put in 1983 (31%). It also represented a big increase on the 17% of 2011 interviewees who had not been brought up in any religion, suggesting that very many relinquish faith on transition to adulthood.

The number professing no religion varied substantially by age, peaking among the 18-24s (65%) and falling steadily to 18% among the over-75s. The age differential also largely explains the high of 57% for the never married and the low of 25% for the widowed. Gender was likewise significant, with 51% of men against 39% of women having no faith.

Regionally, Wales (historically a heartland of Nonconformity) reported the greatest incidence of irreligion (58%) and Greater London (formerly renowned for its poor religious allegiance but now boosted by religiously-minded immigrants) one of the lowest (42%). The Midlands, another centre of immigration, recorded 41%.

Very regular (once a week or more) attendance at religious services (other than for rites of passage) was claimed by 14%, almost certainly an exaggeration, while 58% said that they never attended public worship, just a modest rise on 53% in 1991. The picture is complicated by the fact that this question was apparently answered by very many, albeit not all, of those professing no religion.

In fact, 13% of the irreligious stated that they sometimes attended religious services. Anglicans had the highest total non-attendance (56%), with Roman Catholics on 28%, other Christians on 39%, and non-Christians on 29%. Men (65%) were more likely never to attend than women (54%). Variation by age cohort was between 54% and 65%, by marital status between 56% and 64%, and by region between 54% and 65%.

Other questions explored attitudes to Muslims. In the main (face-to-face) questionnaire, randomly-chosen sub-samples were asked for their views on three groups of migrants to Britain (labour migrants, student migrants, and family reunion migrants) originating from various geographical contexts, one of them being ‘Muslim countries like Pakistan’. 

An analysis of the results is given in the chapter on immigration (pp. 26-44) by Robert Ford, Gareth Morrell and Anthony Heath, which appears in British Social Attitudes, 29, especially on pp. 35-40. In respect of Muslims, public opinion was found to be more nuanced than has usually been assumed yet there remained some underlying prejudice.

Regarding labour migration, while 61% said that Muslim professionals filling jobs was good for Britain, only 17% said the same about unskilled Muslim labourers and even fewer (10%) about the same group searching for work. This professional/unskilled split was generic, but net support for Muslim migrants still tended to be less than from East Europe. Indeed, on several measures of the economic and cultural impact of migration there was a clear net preference for East Europeans over Muslims.

A similar trend was evident for student migration. Although the public was much more well-disposed to student migrants in general with good grades than bad grades, regardless of region of origin, net support for students with good grades from Muslim countries was smaller than from the other three geographical clusters, and net opposition to student migrants with bad grades was slightly higher for those from Muslim countries than West Europe or East Asia.

The pattern was repeated for family reunion migration, with which the public is unhappy overall. At 57%, net opposition to migrants from Muslim countries bringing their family to live in Britain for three years was very much greater than for family reunion migration from West Europe. The disparity remained when the period of settlement was extended to ten years, albeit family reunion migration from Africa was then perceived somewhat more negatively than from Muslim countries. 

Version C of the self-completion questionnaire, put to one-third of the sample, explored another dimension of anti-Muslim prejudice, asking respondents how comfortable they would be if a close relative married or otherwise entered into a relationship with a person who grew up in a Muslim country. Answers were recorded on a scale running from 0 to 10.

23% of respondents were very uncomfortable (0 or 1) about this prospect and 22% very comfortable (9 0r 10). Least discomfort was felt by the 18-24s (10%) and Scots (14%). Most discomfort was manifested by the over-65s (including 38% for the 65-74s), with age also probably contributing to highs for those with no educational qualifications (44%) and the widowed (38%).

The 2011 BSA findings on religious affiliation were highlighted in the notes for editors section of a BBC press release on 12 September concerning the Corporation’s RE:THINK 2012 Religion and Ethics Festival, hosted in Salford recently.

In connection with the Festival, the BBC commissioned its own research from TNS BMRB among 585 16- to 24-year-olds, interviewed face-to-face between 15 and 21 August 2012.

Asked to rank the most important moral issue for them, having religious faith or beliefs featured in equal penultimate place in a list of eight options, scoring just 4% compared with 59% of the young who selected looking after family. Moreover, religion was considered the least important moral issue by 32% of respondents.

The BBC press release can be found at:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/mediacentre/latestnews/2012/rethink-poll.html

 

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Anglicans and Attitudes towards Gay Marriage

Posted on September 14, 2012 by Ben Clements

In a previous post I looked at the long-term attitudes of religious groups in Britain towards the acceptance of same sex relations, showing a clear liberalisation of public opinion in recent decades. The proportion of Anglicans who thought that sexual relations between adults of the same sex was either ‘always wrong’ or ‘almost always wrong’ had fallen from 69.7 per cent in 1983 to 37.4 per cent in 2010. While Anglicans may be more accepting of homosexuality in general, what about their attitudes towards more specific issues of gay rights – particularly those which more directly affect their own church and established social institutions?

 

This post focuses on the attitudes of Anglicans towards the issue of gay marriage, on which the coalition government set out proposals earlier this year, and which is causing controversy within and between religious institutions and political parties. The issue has led to public exchanges of differing views between leading members of the coalition government (including Prime Minister David Cameron and his deputy, Nick Clegg) who support the reform, and leaders of the Church of England – as well as from other denominations and faiths, who oppose it. The Church of England, in particular, has said the reform constitutes one of the most severe threats it has faced for centuries. Two groups have been set up – the Coalition for Marriage and the Coalition for Equal Marriage – to campaign on opposing sides of the debate. The issue also has potential implications at the grassroots level, as in several recent ComRes CPANEL polls, undertaken for Premier Media and Coalition for Marriage, significant proportions of Anglicans – as well as adherents of other Christian denominations – have stated they would be less likely to vote for the Conservative Party as a result of same sex marriage laws. It is nothing new, of course, for the Anglican Church to be internally split on issues of gay rights and related legislation. Indeed, existing scholarly research has shown that Anglicans differ in their (dis)approval of homosexuality, with their views shaped by both personality traits and theological orientation.

 

This post uses a nationally-representative opinion survey of British adults, undertaken by YouGov in March 2012, to assess the overall distribution of opinion of Anglicans on several aspects of the gay marriage issue, as well as to examine which groups of Anglicans are more likely to be supportive or opposed to liberal reforms in this area. The overall survey sample consisted of 1,707 respondents, of whom 458 were Anglican. The survey asked a range of questions about the gay marriage issue and same sex relations, but three in particular are examined here. They relate to: attitudes towards the validity of same sex relations; attitudes towards the legal recognition of same sec relationships; and views towards the Church of England’s stance on the issue of gay marriage.

 

First, TABLE 1 compares the overall distribution of opinion on these three questions for the full sample and Anglicans only. Anglicans are less likely than all respondents to believe that same sex relationships are as valid as heterosexual relationships (52.4 per cent compared to 61.7 per cent); though still a majority think they are as valid. The next question, on legal recognition, allows respondents to express opposition for same sex marriage while approving civil partnerships, which became law in 2005. They could also reject both forms of legal recognition. Again, we can see that Anglican are much less supportive of same sex marriage (24.4 per cent are supportive compared to 42.8 per cent of the full sample). Anglicans are more in favour of civil partnerships than the full sample, as well as more likely to oppose any form of legal recognition for same sex couples. The third question asked specifically about the Church of England’s stance on the issue, in terms of whether respondents thought it was right or wrong to defend marriage as an institution exclusively for heterosexual couples, what is usually labelled ‘traditional marriage’. Around two-thirds of Anglicans in the sample agreed with the Church of England’s position, compared to less than half of the full sample. Still, around a quarter of adherents were in disagreement, believing their church to be in the wrong.

 

TABLE 1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Second, TABLE 2 focused on the Anglicans in the sample, in order to ascertain which groups are more likely to have pro-‘gay rights’ positions on the three questions. Figures are shown on the basis of the following social and political characteristics: gender; age group; education; and political party supported. The three columns report the proportion of respondents in each category offering pro-gay rights responses: that is, the proportion believing that same sex relationships are as valid as heterosexual ones; the proportion that supports same sex marriage; and the proportion that believes the Church of England are wrong on the issue. We can see that particular groups are consistently more likely to offer more liberal views on the three questions (highlighted in bold). These are women, those aged 18-29 years old, and Labour Party supporters (closely followed by Liberal Democrat partisans). Perhaps surprisingly, those with a degree-level education were not most likely to have the pro-gay rights views in response to these questions; instead, those with A-Levels or other below degree-level qualification were more likely to show liberal opinions. In relation to age, the evidence supports existing research showing that older Anglicans are more likely to hold anti-gay attitudes.

TABLE 2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Of course, while the evidence reported in TABLE 2 gives an indication of some dividing lines amongst Anglicans in their views of same sex marriage, one potentially important source of attitudinal variation is religiosity. Data on religiosity is not available in the YouGov survey used so far, but we can turn to the 2008 British Social Attitudes survey, which asked a similar question on the legal recognition of same sex relationships and had different indicators of religiosity. TABLE 3 shows, for attendance at religious services and personal importance of religion, the proportions who support same sex marriage, favour civil partnerships only, or who are against all forms of legal recognition for same sex couples. The measure of attendance at religious services is divided into those who attend reasonably frequently (at least once a month) and those who attend infrequently or not all all. The measure of the personal importance of religion is divided between those who say it is ‘very important’ or ‘moderately important’, and those who report it is ‘slightly important’ or ‘not at all important’. Looking first at attendance, we can see that those who attend religious services regularly are less likely to support same sex marriage and more likely to favour no form of legal recognition. A similar pattern is evident for the personal importance of religion: again, those for whom their faith assumes a greater prominence in their daily life are less supportive of same sex marriages and more likely to believe that there should not be any form of legal recognition. On both of these alternative indicators of religiosity, then, those who exhibit greater religiosity tend to have less liberal views on this contemporary gay rights issue.

 

TABLE 3

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Dr Ben Clements

Department of Politics and International Relations

University of Leicester

Email: bc101@leicester.ac.uk

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Summer Shorts

Posted on August 23, 2012 by Clive D. Field

Herewith a round-up of some recently-published religious statistics which may be of interest to BRIN readers:

Religious Affiliation

Asked whether they consider themselves to be a member of any religious group, 56% of adults reply Christian, 6% some other religion, and 36% none. The number professing no religion decreases steadily with age, from 52% among the 18-24s to 23% for the over-65s (73% of the latter claiming to be Christian). The biggest concentration of adherents of non-Christian faiths is to be found in London (12%) and with the 18-24s (10%).

Source: Populus poll for Insight PA, conducted online on 4-5 July 2012 among 2,117 Britons aged 18 and over. Data reported in table 41 at:

http://www.populus.co.uk/uploads/OmPrivate_Public.pdf

Older Giving

Slightly more than half (52%) of the UK’s over-65s were online in June 2012, 6% more than in March 2009, albeit still 30% below the average for all adults. This advent of the ‘silver surfer’ is proving financially advantageous to religious causes, even as the traditional church collection plate shows signs of drying up. In May 2012 the over-65s were more likely than average to prioritize charities related to cancer, old age and religion when it comes to their online giving, and less likely to support organizations dedicated to animals, foreign aid, and homelessness. Online contributions by the over-60s to religious causes rose by 171% between 2007 and 2011, compared with 128% for all adults, although online donations to culture and the arts grew even faster (459% among the over-60s, 210% for the population as a whole).

Source: Infographic, compiled by JustGiving from multiple sources, and posted on its blog on 6 August 2012 at:

http://blog.justgiving.com/community/older-giving/

Superstitions

41% of adults describe themselves as superstitious (including 48% of the 18-24s and 45% of women), with 39% saying they are not superstitious at all. The most prevalent superstitious practices are: not walking underneath ladders (38%), touching wood (33%), not opening an umbrella indoors (27%), and crossing fingers (26%). 32% consider themselves as lucky, 27% have a lucky number, but just 6% have lucky underwear. Four leaf clovers (26%) and black cats (20%) are the most widely-regarded omens of good luck, and breaking a mirror (35%) and number 13 (20%) of bad luck. 8% fear 2013 may not be a good year for them because it contains the number 13 in the date.

Source: OnePoll online survey of 1,000 UK adults aged 18 and over in July 2012. OnePoll has kindly given BRIN sight of the full findings, but the only substantive public domain report to date appears to be the post from 20 July 2012 on OnePoll’s blog at:

http://news.onepoll.com/avoiding-walking-ladders-popular-superstition/

Same-Sex Marriage

The Coalition Government’s commitment to widen the definition of marriage to include same-sex couples is proving none too popular with churchgoing Christians, 58% of whom say they are less likely to vote Conservative as a result and 43% less likely to vote Liberal Democrat. Moreover, as a consequence of Government policy on the issue, 75% state their perceptions of Tory leader David Cameron have worsened and 65% report the same about LibDem leader Nick Clegg. 63% believe Cameron has been intolerant of the opposition to the plan and 54% that Clegg has failed to listen to public concerns about it. Three-fifths agree that ‘whether or not I would have voted for the Conservative or Liberal Democrat Parties, I will not do so under their current leaderships if they introduce this measure’. 79% are not persuaded by Government reassurances that places of worship would not be forced to conduct same-sex marriages, while 86% fear that, even if Government does provide an exemption along these lines, it could be overturned by the UK courts or European Court of Human Rights.

Source: Cpanel survey by ComRes for the Coalition for Marriage (C4M) in which 569 churchgoing Christians in the UK aged 18 and over were interviewed online between 26 June and 11 July 2012. Full data tables, including a wide range of breaks by demographics and religion, were posted on 22 August 2012 at:

http://www.comres.co.uk/polls/C4M_full_data_tables_July_12.pdf

Newspaper coverage of the findings can be tracked via the C4M website under the entries for 18 and 19 August 2012 at:

http://c4m.org.uk/news/

Religious Studies GCSE Results, 2012

There were 239,123 candidates for the full course General Certificate of Secondary Education (GCSE) in Religious Studies (RS) in England, Wales and Northern Ireland during the summer of 2012, an increase of 7.7% over the 2011 figure (8.0% for male students and 7.5% for female). RS entries accounted for 4.6% of the total for all subjects (4.3% for males and 4.9% for females), up by 0.3% on the previous year. Entrants achieving grades of A*, A, B or C at RS were 73.7% (67.1% for males, 79.4% for females), 4.3% more than the average for all subjects. As well as the full course, there is a short course in RS, with 235,916 entries in 2012 (8.5% less than in summer 2011, 9.2% down for males and 7.7% for females). Candidates in RS comprised 63.5% of the total for all short courses, with 53.8% achieving grades of A*-C (46.0% for males and 61.5% for females).

Source: Results tables (which include disaggregations by country) published by the Joint Council for Qualifications, representing the seven largest providers of qualifications in the UK, on 23 August 2012 at:

http://www.jcq.org.uk/attachments/published/1727/GCSE%20Results%202012.pdf

 

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Religious Studies A Levels, 2012

Posted on August 16, 2012 by Clive D. Field

The number of UK students sitting for an A Level in Religious Studies (RS) in June 2012 was 3.2 per cent more than in June 2011, maintaining the steady upward trend since the early 1990s, albeit the rate of growth was smaller than in 2010-11 (when it was 4.9%).

This is according to the tables of A Level results issued by the Joint Council for Qualifications, representing the seven largest providers of qualifications in the UK, on 16 August 2012, and available at:

http://www.jcq.org.uk/attachments/published/1713/GCE%20Results%202012.pdf

The total number of RS A Level candidates in June 2012 was 23,042 or 2.7% of the entries for all subjects, 0.1% more than in 2011. This makes RS the fifteenth most popular examination subject at A Level, within spitting distance of economics and well ahead of political studies and ICT/computing.

However, it remains a somewhat ‘feminized’ subject, with females accounting for 68.3% of candidates, compared with 54.1% for all subjects. This is unsurprising, given that women still continue to score more highly than men on most indicators of religiosity.

Females were also more likely to achieve grades of A*, A, B or C in A Level RS than males, 81.4% against 77.9%. The combined figure for these four grades at RS was 80.3%, rather more than for all subjects (76.6%), which some may interpret as an indication that A Level RS is a relatively ‘soft’ option.

The number of candidates achieving grades A*-C in RS was highest in Northern Ireland (88.1%), with 80.5% in Wales and 79.3% in England. On the other hand, Northern Ireland only registered an increase of 1.2% in RS entries between 2011 and 2012, while Wales recorded 13.5%. Results for Scotland are published by the Scottish Qualifications Authority.

In absolute terms, AS Level RS is more popular than A Level, with 33,654 candidates in the UK in June 2012, although this figure was 0.8% down on 2011 and represented a lower proportion (2.5%) of all subject entries than was the case at A Level. AS Level RS was only marginally less likely (67.6%) than A Level disproportionately to attract females.

The long-term trend for A Level RS numbers is still hard to predict. While some believe that the Government’s exclusion of the subject from the eBacc will ultimately have a negative impact on the appeal of RS at A Level, the growth in the non-Christian population, especially among the young (which the 2011 census is expected to reveal) will doubtless act as a counterweight.

 

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Humanist Marriages in Scotland

Posted on August 3, 2012 by Clive D. Field

Humanist marriages, permitted in Scotland since 2005 (but not elsewhere in the UK), were the second most common form of ‘religious’ wedding ceremony in Scotland in 2011, with 2,486 marriages by Humanist celebrants compared with 5,557 conducted by Church of Scotland ministers and 1,729 by Roman Catholic clergy.

The figures are contained in Scotland’s Population, 2011: The Registrar General’s Annual Review of Demographic Trends, 157th Edition, which was published on 2 August 2012 and is available at:

http://www.gro-scotland.gov.uk/files2/stats/annual-review-2011/rgar-2011.pdf

There were 18.8% more Humanist marriages in 2011 than in 2010, against more modest increases of 2.3% in all Scottish marriages and 0.1% in religious marriages. Excluding Humanist ceremonies, there were actually 3.2% fewer religious marriages.

Scottish Humanist marriages grew by an astonishing 472.8% in the five years since they were first fully recorded in 2006. There were 434 in the latter year, 710 in 2007, 1,026 in 2008, 1,544 in 2009, and 2,092 in 2010.

The overall proportion of religious marriages in Scotland in 2011 was 48.2%, the remainder being civil weddings, performed by registrars and with no religious references. If Humanist ceremonies are removed, then religious marriages constituted 39.7% of the national total.

Neither does it follow that religious ceremonies are always performed in places of worship. Far from it, in fact, the annual review stating that ‘around 48 per cent of religious marriages were celebrated in places of worship’.

This was very similar to the percentage of civil marriages occurring in registration offices. Other approved (mostly secular) premises, permitted in Scotland since 2002, are evidently as attractive to couples wishing to have religious as civil weddings.

It should be noted that Scottish marriage statistics are somewhat skewed by the large number (23.4% in 2011) of ‘tourism’ marriages in which neither party resides in Scotland, almost half of which take place in Gretna Green.

In particular, the apparent rise in religious marriages in Scotland between 1997 and 2002 was largely associated with a growth in these ‘tourism’ marriages. The tourism effect has been less marked since, religious marriages falling by 16.9% between 2003 and 2011.

 

 

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Sunday Trading after the Olympics

Posted on July 31, 2012 by Clive D. Field

The suspension of the Sunday Trading Act 1994 for eight weeks around the period of the Olympic and Paralympic Games has now kicked in. Sunday shopping hours are thus deregulated in England and Wales, permitting large stores to open for more than six hours on Sundays for the first time. The Government’s rationale has been to demonstrate to the world that Britain is ‘open for business’.

However, opponents of the move have claimed that this is the ‘thin end of the wedge’ and could well be a prelude to a permanent change in the law. This fear is given some credence by an Ipsos MORI poll published on 30 July 2012 in which 36% of respondents indicated that they favoured the Act being amended for good. 52% were opposed and 12% undecided. 999 Britons aged 15 and over were interviewed face-to-face on 6-12 July 2012. The data tables can be found at:

http://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/3019/Sunday-Trading-Poll.aspx

The results varied significantly by age, with 50% of the 15-24s wanting to see a permanent change in the law, and only 35% against. This led Ipsos MORI to forecast that reform ‘may become inevitable sooner rather than later as the current younger generation of shoppers matures’. In contrast, older Britons preferred the status quo, just 28% of the 55-64s and 21% of the over-65s endorsing permanent legislative amendment (63% and 66% respectively against).

Although groups wanting to keep Sunday special have argued that allowing large stores to trade on Sundays without restriction would undermine family life, the Ipsos MORI data reveal that those with children in the household are actually more likely (42%) to be in favour of permanent extended hours on a Sunday than those without children (33%). ‘Perhaps this is because for today’s generation of families, shopping at the weekend has become a leisure activity in itself for the whole family, as opposed to just an essential chore …’

Apart from older people, opposition to long-term change in the Sunday Trading Act was stronger among women (57%), the top (AB) social group (56%), the highest (£30,000+) income earners (56%), residents of Southern England outside London (64%), and shoppers whose main supermarket was Sainsbury’s (61%). Londoners (41%) and shoppers at Asda (42%) or Morrisons (41%) were particularly supportive of permanent change.

The overall pro-reform lobby of 36% is consistent with the 37% obtained by ICM Research in its telephone survey for the Sunday Telegraph on 22-23 March 2012. Men, the 18-34s, and Scots were then most disposed to relaxing the law after the Olympics and Paralympics, while opposition (56% overall) peaked among women (63%) and the over-65s (64%). Detailed findings are at:

http://www.icmresearch.com/wp-content/blogs.dir/1/files/2012/03/OmBudget-Mar12-BPC.pdf

For other polls on Sunday trading and the Olympics, see BRIN’s coverage at:

http://www.brin.ac.uk/news/2012/sunday-trading-and-the-olympics/

 

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Resonate Online Panel

Posted on July 28, 2012 by Clive D. Field

Christian Research’s new online panel, called Resonate, is now up and running and open for business, according to a letter which accompanies the latest mailing to Christian Research members.

Based on two recent online surveys, ‘over 5,000 respondents agreed to be participants in ongoing research studies, and this has enabled us to compile the UK’s largest online panel of Christian churchgoers and clergy’.

An initial snapshot of the Resonate panel, included in the same mailing, shows that in July 2012 it comprised 4,000 churchgoers and 1,000 clergy drawn from 2,850 individual churches, with the following basic demographic characteristics:

  • Gender: 52% male, 48% female (an underrepresentation of adult female worshippers, who constituted 58% at the English Church Census, 2005)
  • Age: 4% under 30, 23% 30-49, 71% 50 and above (in 2005 65% were aged 45 and over)
  • Marital status: 17% single, 67% in first marriage, 11% remarried, 3% widowed, 1% separated
  • Employment status: 34% full time, 15% part time, 10% self-employed, 2% unemployed, 32% retired
  • Voting in 2010 general election: Conservative 36%, Liberal Democrat 22%, Labour 14%, no answer 22%, did not vote 4%

These are evidently pretty devout Christians. 92% of them claim to attend church at least once a week and only 2% less than once a month. 82% say they read the Bible every day or most days. 76% give 5% or more of their net income to their church, and most seem to be involved in church leadership of one sort or another. 

Denominationally, the panel is predominantly Protestant, with only 3% Roman Catholics (a constituency Christian Research has often found it difficult to reach). 39% are Anglicans. Among the Free Churches, it looks as though Baptists may be overrepresented. 7% do not state a confessional allegiance.  

The panel is more internet-savvy than churchgoers as a whole, and this may have some impact on religious practices and attitudes. Whereas, by definition, 100% of Resonate members are internet users (with 52% also on Facebook and 17% blogging from a Christian perspective), the same is probably true for only a minority of all churchgoers (given their population pyramid is so top-heavy, skewed to older age cohorts who have been slow to get online, despite the ‘silver surfer’ phenomenon).

Obviously, these are very early days for Resonate, and BRIN naturally wishes the new commercial service well. Nevertheless, over time, Christian Research will need to demonstrate to its clients, members and users that it is addressing any known or perceived imbalances in the make-up of the panel, to ensure that it is reasonably representative of all churchgoing Christians. This could be achieved through targeted panel recruitment, selection of respondents for individual surveys, and weighting (where contextual demographics are available).

Similar methodological challenges have faced online surveys of research panels in general, since they appeared in the late 1990s. They have now almost become the norm among some polling organizations, as they can be conducted at a much lower cost and with greater speed than alternative forms of interviewing (face-to-face or telephone, or self-completion postal questionnaire).

They have proved particularly useful for capturing the views and behaviours of small, niche and spatially concentrated interest groups which are hard to reach in sufficient numbers through conventional national sample surveys, however large-scale. YouGov (launched in 2000) has had particular success in this regard, its British panel currently including 360,000 adults. BRIN has so far recorded 190 YouGov polls touching on aspects of religion.

Nor is Resonate the only online panel of Christians to be operating in the UK at present, although it seems to be the first to extend to clergy. Cpanel has been run by ComRes for the past four years, albeit its normal sample size is only around 500 churchgoing Christians. Data are weighted to reflect the profile of churchgoers in the English Church Census, 2005.

The Evangelical Alliance also runs a research panel of more than 3,000 evangelical Christians, just over one-third of whom respond to any particular quarterly survey. This is described by its parent body as ‘an opportunity sample of self-selecting volunteers’. So far as can be seen, no weighting is applied to the results.

Further details about Resonate can be obtained from Abbie Heath – abbie@christian-research.org.uk

 

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