Declining Faith in Scotland?

Posted on January 7, 2011 by Clive D. Field

The correspondence columns of The Scotsman may seem an unlikely venue for a debate on religious statistics, but the issue of 3 January contained an interesting letter from Professor Callum Brown of the University of Dundee about the decline of faith in Scotland during recent years. The letter will be found at:

http://thescotsman.scotsman.com/opinion/Letter-Declining-faith.6677614.jp

In it Brown, a leading academic exponent of secularization and author of the standard monograph on the social history of modern Scottish religion, compared religious profession in Scotland in 2001 (from the decennial census of population) with the Scottish Household Survey for 2008 (presumably, Brown was using only the second half of the data for that particular survey which actually fielded throughout 2007 and 2008).

‘The position has changed significantly’ between the two dates, Brown wrote. In the space of these seven years, affiliation to Christianity in Scotland dropped from 65% to 57%, principally as the result of falling allegiance to the Church of Scotland (down from 42% to 35%) and to the other Christian category (which declined from 14% to 9%). Roman Catholic identification remained stable at about 15%, while those claiming no religion increased from 28% in 2001 to 40% in 2008, virtually by 2% each year.

Brown made the important point that the question-wording used on both occasions was identical (‘What religion, religious denomination or body do you belong to?’), thereby implying his confidence that he was comparing like with like. It is a well-known fact that investigation of religious affiliation is especially sensitive to the precise formulation of the question.

Brown’s 2001 figures appear to be calculated on a base which included those who declined to answer the voluntary question about current religion, of whom there were 278,000 in Scotland. If these are removed from the base, then the proportion of Christians in Scotland in 2001 rose to 69%.

Such a calculation enables comparison with the Scottish data from the Integrated Household Survey for 2009-10. 72% of the 55,000 Scots interviewed then answered Christian in response to the question ‘What is your religion, even if you are not currently practising?’

Some might superficially interpret this result as an increase rather than a decrease in Christian allegiance in Scotland since 2001. 25% of Scots said that they had no religion in 2009-10, with a wide geographical variation – from 8% in Inverclyde to 38% in Midlothian.

Another recent source is an Opinion Research Business poll in 2010. This asked a more normally-sized (1,000) representative sample of adult Scots ‘Which religion, if any, do you regard yourself as belonging to?’ 69% said Christian (including 53% Church of Scotland) and 28% no religion, with just 1% refusing to reply. Fractionally more (70%) said that they regarded themselves as a Christian and 26% not (excluding the 2% non-Christians).

The reality is, therefore, somewhat complex, possibly more so than Brown would like to admit. It will be interesting to see what results emerge from the 2011 census of religious profession in Scotland.

In the meantime, a year-by-year analysis of all the religious affiliation data in the Scottish Household Survey from 1999 to the present would be beneficial and would at least confirm whether Brown’s 2008 findings followed a consistent trend. All these data are available for secondary analysis from the Economic and Social Data Service. Any volunteers for the job? Or perhaps it has already been done?

None of the above is to infer that religious affiliation should be interpreted solely as a measure of religiosity. Clearly, for many it is inextricably bound up with national, ethnic and cultural identity.

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Scotland and the Pope

Posted on August 30, 2010 by Clive D. Field

Pope Benedict XVI’s state and pastoral visit to Great Britain is almost upon us, and there remains much speculation in the national and international print, broadcast and online news media about the extent of opposition which he will encounter while he is in the country between 16 and 19 September.

However, according to an upbeat press release issued yesterday (29 August) by the Scottish Catholic Media Office (SCMO), whatever problems the Pope may face in England (he does not actually visit Wales), his time in Edinburgh and Glasgow on 16 September may be relatively trouble-free.

SCMO’s confidence derives from a poll which it commissioned from Opinion Research Business, among a representative sample of 1,007 Scots aged 18 and over interviewed on 7-9 June 2010, as well as from intelligence that the Protest the Pope campaign has abandoned plans for a big demonstration in Scotland.

The survey found that only 2% of Scots strongly objected to the papal visit with another 3% saying they objected. Six times as many (31%) claimed to be very or fairly favourable, which is about double the proportion who gave their current religion as Roman Catholic at the 2001 Scottish census. The remainder (63%) were neutral. So perhaps apathy rather than hostility is the main risk to the visit in Scotland.

Some commentators have suggested that the low level of opposition to the papal visit in Scotland is quite encouraging, considering the country’s history of sectarian strife. Tom Peterkin, Scottish Political Editor for Scotland on Sunday, took it as a sign in yesterday’s edition that ‘Scotland’s sectarian wounds appear to be healing’. However, he failed to note that fieldwork for SCMO’s survey was some three months ago, and a lot of water has passed under Catholic bridges since that time.

Two other religion-related questions were posed in the poll, presumably to be used in the cross-analysis of replies to the papal visit question. Unfortunately, the full data tabulations with breaks by these variables and standard demographics are not yet online.

The first of these additional questions was ‘Irrespective of whether you go to church, do you regard yourself as a Christian?’ In reply, 70% said yes, 5% more than gave their current religion as Christian in 2001. 26% did not consider themselves to be Christian and 2% affiliated to a non-Christian faith.

The second question concerned frequency of attendance at religious services, other than for rites of passage. 20% claimed to go once a week or more often, 26% once a month or more, 28% less often and 33% never. These figures seem improbably optimistic, even in relation to earlier opinion poll data and certainly compared with trends revealed by the Scottish church attendance censuses of 1984, 1994 and 2002. In 2002 11% of the Scottish population attended on census Sunday.

SCMO’s press release can be found at:

http://www.scmo.org/articles/poll-shows-opposition-to-the-papal-visit-evaporating.html

 

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Muslim Integration in Scotland

Posted on August 30, 2010 by Clive D. Field

The British Council Scotland has recently released a report on Muslim Integration in Scotland, by Amy Homes, Chris McLean and Lorraine Murray, and based upon quantitative and qualitative research undertaken by Ipsos MORI Scotland. The report, commissioned under the auspices of the Council’s ‘Our Shared Europe’ programme, is available to download at:

http://www.britishcouncil.org/scotland-society-muslims-integration-in-scotland-report.pdf

The focus of the study was an examination of Muslim and non-Muslim perceptions of one another and of the extent of Muslim integration in Scotland. Potential barriers to integration were also explored and ways in which these may be overcome.

The quantitative phase of the research was a series of questions included in the Ipsos MORI Scottish Public Opinion Monitor. Telephone interviews were undertaken with a representative sample of 1,006 Scots aged 18 and over between 18 and 21 February 2010. As there are relatively few Muslims in Scotland, such a random survey is essentially of non-Muslims. Findings from this phase appear on pp. 2-7, 18-27 of the report.

The qualitative phase comprised seven focus groups, three of Muslims and four of non-Muslims, in Glasgow, Edinburgh and Dundee between 9 and 23 March 2010. Muslim groups were composed of Muslims born in Scotland and those born elsewhere but who had lived in Scotland for varying periods of time. Non-Muslim groups were made up of non-Muslims who were white Scottish and Christian or had no religion. Findings from this phase appear on pp. 8-9, 29-41 of the report.

The quantitative research is naturally of principal interest to BRIN. Key findings include the following:

  • 66% of Scots held a favourable opinion of Muslims and 21% an unfavourable one. However, this favourability rating was lower than for all other religious groups, with 85% for Christians, 80% for Jews, 77% for Buddhists, 75% for Hindus, 72% for Sikhs and 71% for atheists.
  • 46% of Scots considered that Muslims living in Scotland were loyal to the country and 33% not. This was a higher loyalty score than for Britain, France and Germany, as recorded in the Gallup Coexist Study of 2008. 
  • 48% of Scots agreed and 41% disagreed that Scotland would begin to lose its identity if more Muslims came to live there. This compared with 50% and 31% respectively in the 2006-07 Scottish Social Attitudes Survey.
  • 59% of Scots agreed and 28% disagreed that most Muslims in Scotland were integrated into everyday Scottish life.
  • 66% agreed and 24% disagreed that the attempted bombing at Glasgow airport in 2007 had made people in Scotland less tolerant of Muslims.
  • Whereas 80% of Scots agreed that Christianity was compatible with life in Scotland, only 42% said the same in relation to Islam (and 37% disagreed).
  • On almost all questions, those living in the least deprived areas of Scotland, people under 55, readers of broadsheet newspapers and Liberal Democrat voters had the most positive views of Muslims and Muslim integration.

So, Islamophobia is clearly becoming something of a problem in Scotland. On the whole, however, as Clive Field’s analyses of British public opinion polls conducted between 2001 and 2010 have shown, it is perhaps still less of a challenge there than in England and Wales.

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Religion in Scotland

Posted on August 10, 2010 by Clive D. Field

Scotland’s Population, 2009, the 155th annual review of the Registrar General for Scotland, was published on 6 August. It can be purchased in print format (ISBN 978-1-874451-80-8, £7) or be downloaded from:

http://www.gro-scotland.gov.uk/files2/stats/annual-review-09/rgar2009.pdf

The review is accompanied by Vital Events Reference Tables, 2009, which is available on the internet at:

http://www.gro-scotland.gov.uk/statistics/publications-and-data/vital-events/ref-tables-2009/index.html

As usual, these annual publications contain an analysis of marriages in Scotland by mode of solemnization. In 2009, of 27,524 ceremonies 48% were religious and 52% civil. The religious figure was almost 1% higher than in 2008, but the general trend remains towards civil weddings, interrupted only in 1997-2002 when there was a small rise in religious services largely associated with an increase of ‘tourism’ marriages, especially carried out at Gretna. Back in 1946-50, civil ceremonies accounted for only 17% of the total in Scotland; they first became a majority in 2005. Full data since the Second World War are given in Table 7.6 of Vital Events Reference Tables, 2009.

Of the 13,285 religious ceremonies in 2009, 46% were conducted by the Church of Scotland, 13% by the Roman Catholic Church and 40% by other religions. Heading the list of these ‘other religions’ is the Humanist Society of Scotland, with 12% of all religious ceremonies (humanist celebrants have been authorized to conduct marriages in Scotland since 2005). The Pagan Network and the Spiritualists’ National Union also make an appearance, with 26 and 14 marriages respectively. So, a proportion of religious ceremonies are not really religious in the understood sense of the word. Neither are religious marriages necessarily conducted in places of worship. In fact, in 2009 only 54% were, hotels being the venue for about 2,000 religious weddings and castles and other historic buildings for 1,100.

These statistics, coupled with the forthcoming (16 September) visit to Edinburgh of Pope Benedict XVI, have prompted Adam Morris to write a summative assessment of the state of religion in Scotland. This appeared under the tile ‘Losing our Religion’ in the Edinburgh Evening News for 9 August. The article can be found (with sundry comments) at:

http://news.scotsman.com/opinion/Adam-Morris-Losing-our-religion.6464064.jp

In it Morris claims that ‘Scots are turning their back on religion’, with just 53% identifying themselves as Christian. Besides the marriage statistics, he also cites falling congregations (with only 18% of Scots regular churchgoers and two-thirds not attending during the past year), the disappearance of Sunday schools and other church-based youth organizations, and the growing fashion for non-religious naming ceremonies in lieu of Christian baptism.

Morris quotes Peter Kearney, a spokesperson for the Catholic Church in Scotland, who says that society today is designed against faith, with churchgoers ‘increasingly seen as odd’. Kearney acknowledges that church numbers are down but highlights reduced participation in organizations in general, a point with which Morris agrees. ‘While all may not be alive and well across Christian churches in Scotland, the 600,000 who attend every Sunday is still more than the 100,000 who go to a professional football game and the 300,000 who attend the cinema.’

Clearly, the Edinburgh Evening News would not claim this to be an especially deep analysis of religion in Scotland. Those interested in learning more could try: Clive Field, ‘“The Haemorrhage of Faith”? Opinion Polls as Sources for Religious Practices, Beliefs and Attitudes in Scotland since the 1970s’, Journal of Contemporary Religion, Vol. 16, 2001, pp. 157-75; Peter Brierley, Turning the Tide: The Challenge Ahead – Report of the 2002 Scottish Church Census, London: Christian Research, 2003; David Voas, ‘Religious Decline in Scotland: New Evidence on Timing and Spatial Patterns’, Journal for the Scientific Study of Religion, Vol. 45, 2006, pp. 107-18; and the various publications by Steve Bruce and Tony Glendinning arising from the religion module of the Scottish Social Attitudes Survey (http://www.brin.ac.uk/sources/1348). However, caveat emptor – the statistics in all of these writings are now several years out of date.

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Gender Audit Report, Scottish Episcopal Church

Posted on June 20, 2010 by Clive D. Field

The annual meeting of the General Synod of the Scottish Episcopal Church, which is part of the Anglican Communion, took place in Edinburgh between 10 and 12 June. One of the papers under consideration was a Gender Audit Report, presented to Synod by Dr Elaine Cameron, its principal author.

The document was prepared at the request of the 2009 Synod which was concerned to recognize its commitments to the United Nations’ 2000 Millennium Development Goals and to the Anglican Consultative Council Resolution 13.31 of 2005. Data were collected during the autumn of 2009 (including through a census of Scottish Episcopal congregations on Sunday, 22 November).

The report is available to download from:

http://www.scotland.anglican.org/media/news/files/Gender_Audit_Report_General_Synod_2010.pdf

Key findings include the following:

65% of communicants in the Scottish Episcopal Church are women, ranging from 61% in the City of Edinburgh and the Diocese of Aberdeen to 68% in the Dioceses of Argyll and Brechin.

62% of (non-communicant) adherents are women, varying from 60% in Edinburgh and the Diocese of Aberdeen to 64% in the Dioceses of Brechin and St Andrews.

63% of communicants and adherents combined were women in 2009, which was slightly higher than the 60% for Episcopal churchgoers at the 2002 Scottish church census (at that time the same figure as for all Scottish churchgoers).

Despite the preponderance of women in the pews, men still tend to dominate much of the administration of the Church, accounting for 89% of the membership of cathedral chapters, 85% of conveners of diocesan committees, 70% of stipendiary clergy, 68% of provincial boards and committees, 65% of vestry treasurers, 64% of the Theological Institute, 57% of lay readers and 55% of representatives to General Synod.

However, women do constitute 60% of the lay members of General Synod and 62% of the lay members of diocesan synods, the gender averages for these bodies being skewed by the male majorities among the clergy members. At vestry level there is also a preponderance of female secretaries (71%) and child protection officers (88%).

The report concludes that ‘gendered stereotypic assumptions still prevail’ in the Scottish Episcopal Church and makes several recommendations to promote gender equality, with a further gender audit suggested for November 2012.

One of the recommendations concerns the need for more gender-inclusive language in the liturgy, a topic which, according to the summary of the Synod’s deliberations given in the Church Times for 18 June, appears to have dominated the debate on the report.

A comparable gender audit in the Church in Wales was completed in June 2008.

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Scottish Jewry in Decline

Posted on March 19, 2010 by Clive D. Field

The current issue (19 March 2010, pp. 4-5) of the Jewish Chronicle includes a two-page feature by its political editor, Martin Bright, on the decline of the Scottish Jewish community, from 18,000 in the 1950s to 10,000 today. The overwhelming majority of these Jews are concentrated in the Greater Glasgow area.

The article announces that, following a meeting earlier this month with the Scottish Council of Jewish Communities, the Scottish Government (through its Community Safety Unit) has committed to launch an enquiry into the causes of this decline, amid growing concern about anti-Semitism north of the border. Scottish ministers have yet to make any online public statement on the matter and to decide on the exact form of this investigation.

The anxiety about growing anti-Semitism is voiced in a recent online essay by Kenneth Collins and Ephraim Borowski on ‘Scotland’s Jews: Community and Political Challenges’, published on the website of the Institute for Global Jewish Affairs. The authors claim that much Scottish anti-Semitism is associated with events in the Middle East (specifically hostility to Israel and support for the Palestinians).

Some confirmation of this comes from the number of anti-Semitic incidents reported to the Community Security Trust (CST). There were just 10 of these in Scotland in 2008 but 30 in 2009, including 16 in January alone when the Israelis were mounting Operation Cast Lead in Gaza. One of the most serious incidents was the desecration of Jewish graves at Glenduffhill Cemetery in Glasgow, pictures of which have only just been released to the media.

Another potential indicator is prejudice against Jews and/or Israel expressed in public opinion polls. Unfortunately, although there is no shortage of such polls on a Britain-wide basis (see Clive Field, ‘John Bull’s Judeophobia’, Jahrbuch für Antisemitismusforschung, Vol. 15, 2006, pp. 259-300), the Scottish sub-samples (where analysed) are typically too small to be meaningful.

In any case, no causal link between anti-Semitism and the decline of Scottish Jewry is yet proven. Indeed, the Jewish Chronicle quotes spokespersons from the Scottish Jewish Archives Centre and the CST who appear rather dismissive of any such link.

For an overview of Scotland’s Jewish community, see Kenneth Collins with Ephraim Borowski and Leah Granat, Scotland’s Jews: A Guide to the History and Community of the Jews in Scotland, second edition, Glasgow: Scottish Council of Jewish Communities, 2008. The same publisher also issued in the same year Marlena Schmool, Scotland’s Jews, a study of Scottish Jews in the 2001 census.

Also of interest is Nathan Abrams, Caledonian Jews: A Study of Seven Small Communities in Scotland, Jefferson, NC: McFarland & Co., 2009. This focuses on the Jews of Aberdeen, Ayr, Dundee, Dunfermline, Falkirk, Greenock, Inverness, the Highlands and Islands.

POSTSCRIPT [11 June 2010]: Recent reports in the Jewish Chronicle qualify Martin Bright’s original feature article in three important respects:

a) Alex Salmond, Scotland’s First Minister, does not accept that anti-Semitism is a growing problem in Scotland;

b) the Scottish Government has not agreed to conduct an investigation into the causes of Jewish decline in Scotland; and

c) the Glasgow Jewish Educational Forum is critical of the Scottish Council of Jewish Communities for exaggerating the threat of anti-Semitism in Scotland

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