Life After the Census

Posted on December 13, 2012 by Clive D. Field

The 2011 census of population may be by far the most significant religious statistical source to have been published this week, but there have been a few other reports, too, which are worthy of note. Here we highlight four which appeared on 11 or 12 December 2012.

Same-sex marriage

Just over half the population (53%) supports the broad thrust of what we now know to be Government plans in England and Wales to legislate for a) the civil marriage of same-sex couples and b) religious bodies to have the freedom, if they so choose, to offer religious marriages to same-sex couples. Endorsement is particularly strong among Liberal Democrat voters (66%) and those aged 25-39 (64%). Opposition stands at 37% and is especially pronounced among the over-60s (47%), men (44%), and Conservative voters (42%). 10% are undecided. It should be noted that fieldwork for the survey was completed before the Government unveiled its detailed plans on 11 December, so the question could not have anticipated that Government intends it to be illegal for the Church of England and the Church in Wales to offer same-sex marriages.

Forced to take sides, however, as many as 46% of adults think that the right of Churches to restrict religious marriages to a man and a woman should take precedence over the right of same-sex couples to get married, and this is strongly felt by the over-60s (64%) and Conservative voters (60%). Only 27% say that the right of same-sex couples should take priority over the Churches’ wishes, with a further 27% unsure. This pro-Church position partly reflects the concern expressed by 34% that campaigners would be able to use the Human Rights Act to get the courts to force religious bodies to offer same-sex marriages on their premises, even if they objected.  

Source: Online survey by YouGov of 1,729 adult Britons aged 18 and over on 9-10 December 2012. Data tables published on 11 December at:

http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/k6mqbjfspl/Same-sex-Marriage-101212.pdf

Inter-faith relationships

A majority of Britons (58%) is comfortable with the prospect of a child or grandchild entering into a serious relationship or marriage with someone who practises a different faith. This is a greater level of comfort than about relationships with a person with a disability or longstanding health condition (51%), somebody of the same sex (45%), a resident of another country (41%), a person 15 years older or younger (35%), an individual experiencing long-term unemployment (23%), or somebody with a criminal record (14%). However, it is a lower proportion than those prepared to contemplate a relationship across the racial or ethnic divide (62%), or with a person from a much poorer (68%) or wealthier (77%) background.

A further 26% are neutral in their views about inter-faith relationships, while 16% are uncomfortable. Discomfort is most keenly felt by those who are also uncomfortable about inter-racial relationships (44%), Asians (34%), non-whites in general (25%), residents of the Midlands and East of England (21%), and the over-65s (19%). An above-average level of comfort about inter-faith relationships is displayed by the top (AB) social group and the 55-64 age cohort, 63% in each case.

Source: Online survey by Britain Thinks on behalf of British Future, undertaken on 23-25 November 2012 among 2,149 Britons aged 18 and over. Topline data were published on 11 December 2012 in Rob Ford, Rachael Jolley, Sunder Katwala and Binita Mehta, The Melting Pot Generation: How Britain Became More Relaxed on Race (London: British Future, 2012) and available at:

http://www.britishfuture.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/12/The-melting-pot-generation.pdf

The full data tables can be found at:

http://britainthinks.com/sites/default/files/OmGeneration_Jessica_Dec11th.pdf

Online social networking

In a multinational survey undertaken earlier this year, Britain came top of the 21 nations surveyed for the proportion of adults (52%) reporting that they use online social networking sites such as Facebook, just ahead of the United States and Russia (50% each). However, among these users only a handful in Britain (8%) ever use these sites to share their views about religion, compared with 30% for politics, 35% for sports, 36% for community issues, and 49% for music and movies. Therefore, the recent upsurge of interest among religious agencies in deploying social media for evangelistic purposes may be somewhat misplaced in the British context. In fact, only two of the 20 other countries (Japan on 1% and Germany on 7%) recorded a lower incidence of social media use for sharing religious views, with France and Lebanon equaling Britain on 8%. At the other end of the spectrum, more than half the users of social media in Egypt, Jordan, Tunisia, and Turkey (with large Muslim populations) put social media to religious uses, with 32% doing so in the United States.   

Source: Telephone interviews with 1,018 Britons aged 18 and over between 19 March and 15 April 2012, conducted under the direction of Princeton Survey Research Associates International on behalf of the Pew Research Center and as part of the Pew Global Attitudes Project. Fieldwork was also undertaken in 20 other nations. Topline data published on 12 December in Social Networking Popular Across Globe, available at:

http://www.pewglobal.org/files/2012/12/Pew-Global-Attitudes-Project-Technology-Report-FINAL-December-12-2012.pdf

Religion in the armed forces

Members of the UK’s armed forces are still more inclined to claim a religious affiliation and to say they are Christian than the population as a whole, but the situation is changing fairly rapidly. On 1 April 2012 the proportion of armed forces personnel declaring no religion was 14.7%, up from 9.5% in 2007. It was lowest in the Army (11.9%) and highest in the Naval Service (20.1%), with 17.5% in the Royal Air Force. Across all three services the number of Christians declined from 89.7% in 2007 to 83.5% in 2012 (85.7% in the Army, 81.5% in the Royal Air Force, 78.9% in the Naval Service). That leaves a mere 1.9% in 2012 professing a non-Christian faith, an improvement on the 0.8% of five years earlier but still a significant underrepresentation in terms of society as a whole.

The religious affiliations of civilian personnel working for the armed forces have only been collected since 2008, and the declaration rate had still only climbed to 67.6% in 2012. Of those stating their religion in 2012, 24.1% said that they had none, very close to the English and Welsh average at the 2011 census (25.1%). The number of Christians was 70.8%, much higher than the 59.3% in the census, while non-Christians amounted to 5.1% (against 8.4% in the census). It should be remembered that the comparison with the census is not on a strict like-for-like basis since there was a non-response rate of 7.2% at the census.

Source: Ministry of Defence, United Kingdom Defence Statistics, 2012, tables 2.12 (armed forces) and 2.32 (civilian personnel, including a breakdown by pay band). Prepared by Defence Analytical Services and Advice, and published on 12 December 2012 at:

http://www.dasa.mod.uk/modintranet/UKDS/UKDS2012/pdf/ukds2012r1.pdf

 

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Religious Census 2011 – What happened to the Christians?

Posted on December 13, 2012 by David Voas

When it comes to religion, the sharp fall in the ‘Christian’ population has been the big story of the 2011 census.  If the 2001 results posed one problem for religious statisticians – why was the Christian figure so high? – the latest findings are just as puzzling: why has it fallen so fast?

The surge of 2001

Ten years ago, the surprise was that far more people identified themselves as Christian on the census (nearly 72%) than in various national surveys (54% in the British Social Attitudes survey).  In an article published in the Journal of Contemporary Religion, Steve Bruce and I argued that the difference in England and Wales arose because

  • census forms are often completed by one individual on behalf of the entire household (although we offered evidence that this factor was less influential than had been thought);
  • the census religion question immediately followed the one on ethnicity and seemed to be simply a supplementary question on the same topic;
  • the wording of the question (“What is your religion?”) implies that a religious identity is expected;
  • the form offered a single, undifferentiated ‘Christian’ category, and would frequently have been viewed as part of a system of cultural classification;
  • and finally, anxiety about immigration and political Islam led many respondents to assert their identification with the country’s Christian heritage.

The fall in 2011

This time the issue is different.  Analysis of the full set of British Social Attitudes datasets since the survey began in 1983 shows that religious affiliation is remarkably stable, on average, over the adult life course.  Many individuals gain or lose a religious identity  (or being little concerned about such matters, vacillate in what they report), but very little aggregate change is found within any given generation.  The overall decline in religious identification is not the product of individuals defecting to no religion, but rather of elderly Christians being replaced in the population by young people who are – and remain – less religious.

That being so, it was natural to expect a similar stability in the census returns.  Of course the Christian percentage was bound to drop somewhat both because of cohort replacement and as a result of growth in the Muslim and other minority populations, but there was little reason to think that people who called themselves ‘Christian’ in 2001 would not do so again in 2011.  

In the event, the outcome has been very different. The total population of England and Wales has gone up by four million, but the number of self-described Christians has gone down by the same amount.  The Christian percentage has fallen, according to the census, from 71.7% to 59.3% between 2001 and 2011.  A decline of that magnitude can only occur if some people have decided that they don’t have a religion after all.

How many such people are there?  We’ll have a much better idea when the cross-tabulations by age, ethnicity and so on are available in the spring.  In due course it will even be possible to estimate the figure directly (and very accurately) using the Longitudinal Survey, which links records from successive censuses for a sample of the population.  In the meantime, here is a conservative estimate based on the statistics currently available.

The relative decline in Christian affiliation is the product of three factors: replacement, dilution and defection.  Old people who in overwhelming majority have a religious identity are replaced in the population by a new generation that does not.  Even if there were no absolute losses, the Christian proportion would decline as the number of Muslims, Hindus, Sikhs, Buddhists and others rises.  Once we account for these two factors, we can estimate the amount of drift into no religion.

Cohort replacement

We know from vital statistics that some 5,122,500 deaths were recorded in England and Wales between the two census dates.  We could use life tables to distribute those deaths by age, but for present purposes we can be content with a more straightforward procedure: we will simply assume that the oldest people are those who died.  Excluding about 97,200 non-Christians, 87% of the most elderly group called themselves Christian.  Based on the trajectory of generational decline in the figures from 2001, only 56% of their replacements in the population will be Christian, even omitting people of other faiths.  In a stationary population, we could thereby project that the absolute number of Christians would fall by one and a half million, and their share would drop from 72% to 69%. 

Dilution from growth in other religions

As we know, however, the population is growing, and 42% of that growth has been in the non-Christian population.  Once the additional Muslims, Hindus and so on are considered, there are still 2,320,000 more people in the country at the end than at the beginning of the period.  The challenge is to decide what assumptions to make about their religious identities.  A large proportion will be Africans and Eastern Europeans, large majorities of whom choose the Christian option.  For the moment I propose simply to apply the 2001 value (with people of other faiths omitted, 76% were Christian) to the 2011 population boost.  The net effect of growth is to dilute the Christian share to 67%.  At the same time, however, the projected number of Christians is in excess of 37.5 million, slightly higher than in 2001.

Defection

As shown above, much of the change in the Christian share of the population is the result of natural causes: the death of elderly Christians and their replacement by young people who have no religion, and a continuing growth of non-Christian groups through immigration and natural increase.  Using very generous assumptions about the amount of change produced by cohort replacement, and relatively conservative assumptions about growth through immigration, we have managed to explain about 40% of the fall in the Christian percentage of the population.  Nevertheless the calculations would not have led us to expect a drop in the Christian headcount between 2001 and 2011. 

I estimate that about 4,300,000 people in England and Wales were identified as Christian in 2001 and as having no religion in 2011.  (To be more accurate, this value gives the net change: it is very likely that many people called themselves Christian in 2011 having not done so in 2001, and hence the actual number going the other way would be correspondingly larger.)  This figure is 13% of the total number of 2001 Christians who were still alive in 2011. 

The analysis underlines the remarkable amount of change that has occurred in the relatively short period between the last two censuses.  Nearly a quarter of the people who called themselves Christian in 2001 no longer appear in that column, casualties of old age or disaffiliation.  Many of them have been replaced via natural increase and immigration, but the situation is intriguingly fluid.

What happened to the Christians?

The 72% figure was never a good indication of the religious state of the nation, and likewise the 12.5 percentage point fall between 2001 and 2011 is unlikely to be evidence of a previously unnoticed shift towards secularity.  The census findings are somewhat better aligned than before with national survey data, though for the reasons mentioned at the outset the Christian share is still on the high side.  Why the proportion has dropped by so much, though, is a question that is likely to occupy us for some time to come.

David Voas is Professor of Population Studies at the Institute for Social and Economic Research, University of Essex, and co-Director of British Religion in Numbers.

 

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Religious Census 2011 – Initial Responses

Posted on December 12, 2012 by Clive D. Field

Herewith an initial trawl of statements by interested parties about the results from the religion question in the 2011 census of population of England and Wales. All the statements were published on 11 or 12 December 2012. No claim is made that this is a comprehensive list.

Church of England (Arun Arora)

‘These results confirm that we remain a faithful nation. England remains a country where the majority of the nation actively identifies the role that faith plays in their life. Clearly we welcome the fact that Christianity remains the most populous faith in England – with six in ten people identifying themselves as Christian. When all faiths are taken together, people of faith account for two-thirds of the nation … Obviously the fall in those choosing to identify themselves as Christians is a challenge. We need to look closely at the fuller figures published next year and to reflect on what these tell us. One of the reasons may well be fewer people identifying as “Cultural Christians” i.e. those who have no active involvement with churches and who may previously have identified as Christian for cultural or historical reasons. They indicate a changing pattern of religious life in which traditional or inherited identities are less taken for granted than they used to be. The work of the Church of England is not limited to those who declare Christian affiliation. As a Church we continue to serve people of all faiths and none …’

http://www.churchofengland.org/media-centre/news/2012/12/census-2011.aspx

Catholic Bishops’ Conference of England and Wales

‘The overall decrease in the number of self-identifying Christians is consistent with recent social attitude and social value surveys. While this is a challenge, the fact that six out of 10 people in England and Wales self-identify as Christians is not discouraging. Christianity is no longer a religion of culture but a religion of decision and commitment. People are making a positive choice in self-identifying as Christians. While precise figures are difficult to determine, polling shows that the Catholic population has remained consistent at 9% of the total population for many years … Catholics play a full part in the country’s social and cultural mix, serving the common good.’

http://catholic-ew.org.uk/Home/News-Releases/2011-Census

Methodist Church of Great Britain (Martyn Atkins)

‘These figures are a challenge to the Churches and reflect how British society has changed. But we are not discouraged. We are excited to be Christians in part of an increasingly diverse, multi-faith society and we believe that British society is enriched by this mix. It has always been clear to Methodists that the Church exists not only for those who say they belong to it, but those who don’t. We rejoice when Churches are growing, but we also rejoice when we can share with others in transforming our world and our communities for good. The numbers of people that attend worship on Sundays and on special occasions like Christmas are important, but they only show a small part of the picture. Churches remain committed to making a difference to many more people’s lives through the wider activities of our communities, in church groups, fresh expressions, work in schools and places of community through volunteering, chaplaincies, being street pastors and good neighbours … The Census results mean we need to think and act smarter in seeking to be good witnesses to Jesus Christ today, and many Methodists will relish that opportunity.’

http://methodist.org.uk/news-and-events/news-releases/census-response-church-is-for-life-not-just-christmas-says-methodist-general-secretary

Evangelical Alliance (Steve Clifford)

‘The UK retains a strong Christian heritage, according to the release of figures from the 2011 census … There’s no real surprise in these figures, they reflect what we are seeing across the country. Being a Christian is increasingly understood as following Jesus and not just wearing a cultural or historic label. For a lot of people who do not identify as religious, it is probably more taking off a label that doesn’t fit than embracing a particular anti-religious agenda. As evangelical Christians we are presented with a fantastic opportunity. The gospel prospers in a context where faith is alive and freely chosen; we should take the results of the census as an opportunity to get to know the people the numbers represent.’

http://eauk.org/current-affairs/news/census-is-britain-still-a-christian-country.cfm

Fresh Expressions (Norman Ivison)

‘The newly published statistics show what many have been saying for some time. The church in England and Wales needs to find new ways of engaging those who no longer have, or never had any interest in the Christian faith. The reality is that inherited church life is still attractive to many people but not to everyone. New forms of church are developing throughout the UK, alongside parish and other traditional structures, which are increasingly helping those who have never been to church to discover the Christian faith for themselves. The Census statistics demonstrate that real alternatives need to be offered for those who find conventional church inaccessible for all sorts of reasons.’

http://cte.churchinsight.com/Articles/337010/Churches_Together_in/News_Events/News/Fresh_Expressions_re.aspx

Bible Society (Ben Whithall)

‘With Christmas coming up, now seems like a good time to think about labels. Research numbers we’ve been seeing recently – including the religion statistics from the latest census – suggest that when it comes to “religion”, the labels we have aren’t very helpful … It quickly becomes clear that religious identity and activity – and certainly what’s going on in people’s heads or hearts behind either – don’t fall into easy or binary categories in our society today. This idea of straightforward segregation between “religious” and “the rest/normality” in life looks increasingly ridiculous … as does the setting up of diametrically-opposed “Christian” and “non-Christian” sides. In practice, the lines seem very blurred for most people. So can we please rescue the Bible from falling into splendid isolation in a small glass case labelled “in case of spiritual emergency”’.

http://www.biblesociety.org.uk/news/stats-show-society-doesnt-split-into-religious-sides/

Ekklesia (Simon Barrow)

‘The new census data from England and Wales confirms what we have been saying for some time. Britain is increasingly becoming a mixed society in terms of culture, identity and belief. The key issue for people of all religions and none in plural settings is to learn to develop their own values and practices in a way that recognises difference and seeks to make a beneficial contribution to society through good example rather than compulsion.’

http://www.ekklesia.co.uk/node/17589

Theos (Nick Spencer)

 ‘It’s important to recognise what the Census doesn’t measure – what people believe or what they practice – and what it does measure – how they identify themselves with regard to a religion … Just because someone calls themselves a Christian, it doesn’t mean they faithfully live by Christian creeds and practices. We all know that. But the same is true for the non-religious. A recent study by Theos/ComRes into the non-religious, Post-Religious Britain? The Faith of the Faithless, shows how wrong it is to imagine that someone who calls themselves non-religious, or even an atheist, has no spiritual beliefs … The non-religious category is as messy as the religious one, with non-religious people believing in things and behaving in ways that are not particularly non-religious. What this all means is that if it is increasingly hard to sustain the claim that Britain is still a Christian country, it is even harder to claim it is an atheistic or secular one. What we are becoming is ever more religiously plural: ever more people believe, behave and belong in different ways to their neighbours when it comes to religion and spirituality.’

http://www.theosthinktank.co.uk/comment/2012/12/12/2011-census-the-religion-question

Institute for Jewish Policy Research

‘2011 UK Census data released on 11 December 2012 by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) show a Jewish population of 263,376 in England and Wales. This represents a small increase of 1.3% since 2001, and suggests the UK Jewish population has remained largely static over the past ten years. However, more detailed analysis of the data reveal significant changes at the local and regional levels, with clear indications of population growth and decline in particular areas.  These provide critical insights into developments in the British Jewish community.’ A four-page paper, ‘2011 Census Results (England and Wales): Initial Insights about the UK Jewish Population’, written by David Graham and Jonathan Boyd of the Institute for Jewish Policy Research and Daniel Vulkan of the Board of Deputies of British Jews, is available at:

http://www.jpr.org.uk/downloads/2011%20Census%20Initial%20findings%20report%20Final%20Dec%202012.pdf

Muslim Council of Britain (Farooq Murad)

‘Welcoming the Census 2011 results, the Muslim Council of Britain commented that the growth in number points to the fact that Muslims play a significant part in the increasing diversity of Britain. The population of Muslims in England and Wales is now 2.71 million, of a total of 56.1 million – around 4.8% of the population. The Muslim presence across the length and breadth of the land, from inner London (almost half a million) to the Isles of Scilly (around half a dozen) is a matter of fact. Comparison with the 2001 Census indicates that the populations of all minority faith communities have increased – for example the Hindu and Buddhist communities rose by 48% and 70% respectively. This is a reflection not just of demographic profile – the BME communities’ lower age profile means they have young families – but also ONS’s greater success in disseminating the Census message within hard-to-reach communities … In a time of brutal and drastic public sector cuts, policy makers will now be in a position to target scarce public resources more effectively to the most needy districts and wards – this applies particularly to the provision of childcare facilities to help working mothers and youth services … The voluntary religion question was answered by 92.8% of the population, validating the MCB’s campaign when first lobbying for its inclusion that Britain is not shy about faith.’

http://mcb.org.uk/media/presstext.php?ann_id=510

British Humanist Association (Andrew Copson)

‘Census results just published show a plunge in the number of people ticking “Christian” in England and Wales from 72% in 2001 to 59% in 2011 and an increase in the number of people ticking to say they have no religion from 15% in 2001 to 25% in 2011. This represents a 67% relative rise in the number saying “no religion”. In addition, the British Humanist Association (BHA) has calculated that if the change in Christianity showed between 2001 and 2011 continues at a linear rate, then Christians would be recorded as in the minority by the Census question from September 2018 … This is a really significant cultural shift. In spite of a biased question that positively encourages religious responses, to see such an increase in the non-religious and such a decrease in those reporting themselves as Christian is astounding. Of course these figures still exaggerate the number of Christians overall – the number of believing, practicing Christians is much lower than this and the number of those leading their lives with no reference to religion much higher. Religious practice, identity, belonging and belief are all in decline in this country, and non-religious identities are on the rise. It is time that public policy caught up with this mass turning away from religious identities and stopped privileging religious bodies with ever increasing numbers of state-funded religious schools and other faith-based initiatives. They are decreasingly relevant to British life and identity and governments should catch up and accept that fact.’

http://humanism.org.uk/2012/12/11/census-results-show-huge-shift-in-cultural-identity-from-christianity-to-no-religion/

National Secular Society (Terry Sanderson)

‘Findings from the 2011 census for England and Wales have revealed the number of people who say they are Christian has dropped dramatically from 72% to 59%. The figures published today by the Office for National Statistics also show the number of people who say they have no religion has risen from 15% to 25% … Such an enormous reversal in the space of ten years is an indication of the huge upheaval there has been in religious attitudes in Britain. It should serve as a warning to the churches that their increasingly conservative attitudes are not playing well with the public at large. It also calls into question the continued establishment of the Church of England whose claims to speak for the whole nation are now very hard to take seriously … It will certainly give the churches a great deal of food for thought, and should tell the Government that although it might “do God” as Baroness Warsi claims, a huge proportion of the population do not. This should be reflected in policy-making.’

http://www.secularism.org.uk/news/2012/12/census-shows-dramatic-fall-in-number-of-christians-in-uk

The Guardian (Jonathan Freedland)

‘God – or at least the church – is struggling in this country. Ten years ago 72% identified as Christians; now it’s just 59%. The panicmongers on the reactionary right will compare that to the rise in the number of British Muslims to 2.7m – from 3% of the total population in 2001 to 5% now – and warn that Christianity will one day be outstripped by Islam. But the biggest challenge to Christian influence in our national life is not Islam, but rather the 25% who declared themselves to be of “no religion” at all, up from 15% in 2001. Non-believers now form the second biggest denomination … It confirms our place as perhaps the most godless country, the least “churched”, in the industrialised world, setting us apart from the US, obviously, but also from much of continental Europe.’

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2012/dec/11/census-2011-england-wales

 

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Religious Census 2011 – England and Wales

Posted on December 12, 2012 by Clive D. Field

There have been some marked changes in the religious composition of England and Wales during the past decade, according to the first results from the 2011 census of population which were released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) on 11 December 2012.

A statistical bulletin containing the principal findings, with analysis and commentary, is available at:

http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/dcp171776_290510.pdf

A spreadsheet of statistics for each local or unitary authority, expressed as numbers, percentages and rankings for nine main religious categories, can be found in Table KS209EW at:

http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/publications/re-reference-tables.html?edition=tcm%3A77-286262

At the same URL is Table QS210EW which contains the same information for local authorities broken down by a 58-category classification, utilizing the write-in responses given by those claiming to be of ‘any other religion’.

A podcast featuring audio and graphical animations is on the ONS YouTube channel at:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tXdZJoXuxC8

The census was taken on 27 March 2011. The question asked on religion was the same as in 2001: ‘What is your religion?’ This formulation, which some interpret as implying that a respondent would/should have a faith, is known to give higher positive answers than the more open sort of question asked in the British Social Attitudes (BSA) Surveys, which is: ‘Do you regard yourself as belonging to any particular religion? If yes, which?’ The 2011 BSA reported 46.1% as having no religion on this basis.

The census reply options (in this order on the self-completion schedule) were: no religion, Christian, Buddhist, Hindu, Jewish, Muslim, Sikh, and any other religion (write in). However, it should be noted that ‘no religion’ replaced ‘none’ (which had been used in 2001), ‘for clarity’ and consistency with other questions, as ONS explains. Where appropriate, ONS reassigned the ‘other religion’ given to one of the main religious categories (including ‘no religion’).

The religion question was entirely voluntary, and 7.2% chose not to answer it, slightly down on the 7.7% in 2001. It cannot be assumed that the religion of these people will exactly match the distribution of those who did reply, so it is not recommended that the data are rebaselined to exclude non-respondents.

Reasons for refusing to answer were not sought, although, clearly, some will have been motivated by an aversion to ‘the state’ enquiring into such a private matter as religion, while others will have proceeded on the principle of never volunteering information which is not mandatory.

Another methodological consideration to be borne in mind is that the census question on religion will often have been answered by the head of household on behalf of all members of the household and thus may reflect his/her interpretation rather than their actual views, especially if the head of household held strong religious convictions one way or another. 

Finally, we should note that there was some apparent ‘trivialization’ in the responses. The social media campaign to have ‘heavy metal’ inserted as a religion did not have much impact, since only 6,000 eventually declared themselves as such on the census form. However, the ‘Jedi knight’ (from the Star Wars films) campaign, which had been so influential in 2001, continued to have an effect, with 177,000 adherents, albeit very many fewer than a decade previously (when there were 390,000).   

Moving to the picture which emerges from the census, there has been a big increase (over two-thirds), from 14.8% to 25.1% (the latter equating to 14,100,000 individuals), in those professing no religion. It is hard to say whether the alteration in the wording of the reply option contributed to this or not, or the reassignment to ‘no religion’ of 32,000 agnostics, 29,000 atheists, and 15,000 humanists.

At ‘regional’ level, the proportion with no religion peaked in Wales (32.1%), once renowned for its Nonconformity, and at local authority level in Norwich (42.5%), closely followed by Brighton and Hove (42.4%). Regionally, the North-West had the fewest with no religion (19.8%). Local authorities with unusually low numbers of the non-religious superficially correlated with the strong presence of Catholics, Jews, Muslims, and Sikhs, albeit this requires further investigation. 

There has been a correspondingly big reduction, almost one-fifth, in the number of people claiming to be Christian, from 71.7% in 2001 to 59.3% in 2011, although Christianity still remains by far the biggest religious group. The fall has occurred across all local authorities, with the largest drop (16.8%) in Kingston-upon-Hull. The North-East (67.5%) and North-West of England (67.3%) had the highest proportion of Christians, reaching 80.9% in Knowsley (perhaps due to the Roman Catholic heritage). London had the least (48.4%), linked to the fact that only a minority of Londoners now describe themselves as white British.

The census did not seek to differentiate between the various denominations which make up Christianity, and this is also true of other Government sources. However, it is clear from other sample surveys that the main reason for Christianity losing ground is the collapse in nominal allegiance to the Church of England.

A crude comparison of the BSA data for 2001 and 2011 shows that the Church of England’s ‘market share’ of the adult population fell by 28.1% during the decade. According to a very large (64,000) sample of adult Britons interviewed by YouGov in April-May 2011, i.e. about the same time as the census, one-third affiliate to the Church of England (and its Anglican equivalents in Wales and Scotland); in 1947-49 it had been 51% in a series of Gallup polls.

The next largest faith after Christianity in the census was Islam. Muslims now account for 4.8% of English and Welsh residents, up from 3.0% in 2001. The increase, to 2,706,000, is broadly in line with expectation. It probably substantially reflects the youthful profile of the Muslim community, with a greater concentration in the child-bearing cohorts (although age by religion breakdowns have yet to be published by ONS, so this assumption cannot be empirically validated). Migration may also have played a part.

London had the highest proportion of Muslims (12.4%), and the fastest rate of growth since 2001, Tower Hamlets being the local authority with the largest concentration (34.5%, 7.4% more than Christians), and Newham the next (32.0%). More generally, the capital was the most diverse region, with 22.4% identifying with a faith other than Christianity.

All other religions, apart from Christianity and Islam, comprised 3.6% of the population, against 2.8% in 2001. They include Hindus (1.5%), Sikhs (0.8%), Jews (0.5%), Buddhists (0.4%), and others (0.4%). Sikhs were disproportionately resident in the West Midlands, but Buddhists, Hindus, and Jews were most prevalent in London. Among the 0.4% of others, Pagans (57,000) and Spiritualists (39,000) were most numerous.

A second post by me, summarizing public comment on the English and Welsh religious census data, will appear over the next few days. BRIN’s co-director, Professor David Voas, hopes to post his own analysis on BRIN in due course.

Religion results for the 2011 census in Scotland (which was organized by the National Records of Scotland) have not been published yet, but are expected to be released shortly (and will be covered by BRIN as soon as possible). Those for Northern Ireland (where the census is run by the Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency) are summarized at:

http://www.nisra.gov.uk/Census/key_stats_bulletin_2011.pdf

 

 

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Carols + Websites + Prisoners

Posted on December 10, 2012 by Clive D. Field

Today’s medley covers Christmas carols, church websites, and Muslim young offenders. It is anticipated that our next substantive post will be devoted to the 2011 religious census results for England and Wales, scheduled for release on 11 December.

Silent night

Silent Night (Stille Nacht, heilige Nacht), written in Austria by Father Joseph Mohr in 1816, remains the nation’s favourite Christmas carol, as it has been in various opinion surveys conducted over recent years. YouGov’s latest study gives it 21% of the popular vote (rising to 28% of the over-60s), similar to the 20% recorded by the same pollsters two years ago. Runner up position goes to O Come All Ye Faithful (Adeste fideles), with 11% of preferences (10% in 2010), being twice as popular among Conservative and Liberal Democrat voters as for Labour supporters. Charles Wesley’s Hark, the Herald Angels Sing moves up three places, from sixth to third (on 10%, six points above its score in 2010).

The chart is a little contrived, in that respondents did not have a completely free choice over which carols they could nominate. Although there was a category for ‘other’, they were presented with a pre-set list and asked which was their favourite carol on it. The 2012 list was distinctly shorter than in 2010, only nine titles now compared with twenty-five then. Moreover, whereas in 2010 all the lyrics could arguably be classified as carols, by 2012 Jingle Bells (6%), Rudolph the Red Nose Reindeer (5%), and We Wish You a Merry Christmas (4%) had been allowed to make an entrance. Clearly, the boundaries between sacred and secular have become muddied. But, even with such elastic definitions, 21% said that they did not have a favourite carol, with a notable gender gap between men (26%) and women (16%).      

Source: Online survey by YouGov among 1,552 British adults aged 18 and over on 18-19 November 2012, but results not published until 10 December at:

http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/b5u5pjenmy/Christmas-results-121119.pdf

Church websites

Two-thirds of local churches across a range of denominations had a dedicated website as at December 2011, up from two-fifths in 2009, but many of those examined in detail by a postgraduate researcher were found to be sub-optimal. In particular, 63% were non-current in terms of their content, with 12% of them more than three months out of date. Many also had surprising omissions of content, 5% even failing to give the times of the Sunday services and 22% not including a map. Only a minority of church websites contained information about the arrangements for rites of passage: 35% about weddings, 30% about baptisms, and 14% about funerals. Just 8% of websites incorporated a blog and 16% a link to a social media service for the church. 

Source: Sara Batts, ‘What’s the Point of a Website …’, Church Times, 30 November 2012, p. 35. The author is undertaking doctoral research at Loughborough University. An earlier report of her research has appeared on BRIN at:

http://www.brin.ac.uk/news/2011/churches-and-new-media-use/

Young Muslim prisoners

The proportion of Muslims among young men aged 15-18 detained in young offender institutions in England and Wales has risen from 13% in 2009/10 to 16% in 2010/11 to 22% in 2011/12. In 2011/12 they comprised the largest single religious group in such institutions, even outnumbering Anglicans (18%) and Catholics (17%), albeit fewer than the 33% who professed no faith. Moreover, despite signs of improvement since 2010/11, the experiences of young Muslim prisoners in 2011/12 continued to be frequently more negative than that of their non-Muslim counterparts. Of the 167 questions tested for statistical significance, responses to 68 (41%) were more negative for Muslims than non-Muslims, and in only 15 (9%) were they more positive.

Source: Questionnaires completed by 926 males aged 15-18 (195 of them Muslims) detained in young offender institutions in England and Wales in 2011/12. Results published by HM Inspectorate of Prisons and the Youth Justice Board in Rachel Murray, Children and Young People in Custody, 2011-12: An Analysis of the Experiences of 15-18-Year-Olds in Prison, with the detailed comparison of responses for Muslims and non-Muslims at pp. 128-34. The document is available at:

http://www.justice.gov.uk/downloads/publications/inspectorate-reports/hmipris/summeries-of-juvenile-survey-responses/children-and-young-people-custody-2011-12.pdf

Similar findings have also been published recently in HM Chief Inspector of Prisons 2011/12 survey of 6,161 adult prisoners, 899 (15%) of them Muslim. On 85 measures of prison life, Muslim responses were significantly worse than those of non-Muslims in 48 (56%) and significantly better in just 18 (21%); in the remaining questions (22%) there was no significant difference. Details contained in HM Chief Inspector of Prisons for England and Wales, Annual Report, 2011-12: Survey Summaries – Ethnicity, Religion, Nationality, Disability and Age, which can be found at:

http://www.justice.gov.uk/downloads/publications/corporate-reports/hmi-prisons/annual-report-2011-12-survey-summaries.pdf

 

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Surveyitis and Other News

Posted on December 7, 2012 by Clive D. Field

Today’s digest of religious statistical news highlights a thought-provoking blog about ‘surveyitis’ by the Director of the AHRC/ESRC Religion and Society programme, as well as headline findings from two actual surveys, among evangelicals and adult learners.

A bad case of surveyitis

In our last post, on 4 December, we briefly anticipated the publication of Professor Linda Woodhead’s blog inspired by the recent Theos report, Post-Religious Britain? The Faith of the Faithless. This blog was published on The Guardian’s Comment is Free website on 5 December under the heading ‘Surveying Religious Belief Needs Social Science Not Hard Science’. In it Professor Woodhead provides some salutary advice on the difficulties of measuring public opinion in relation to religion, which she characterizes as an ever-changing and often also a vague and contested area. She particularly counsels against ‘surveyitis’, ‘a disease that afflicts people who stay indoors too long poring over data’, and whose ‘symptoms include credulity about the accuracy of survey responses and morbid attachment to outdated questions’, the latter ‘working with zombie categories’. She detects ‘a new outbreak of surveyitis’ occasioned by an upsurge of interest in ‘nones’, people who do not identify with or practice religion. She emphasizes ‘doubt, subtlety, uncertainty and cognitive modesty’, in contrast to the idea of ‘a fantasy rational man with clear and distinct ideas’ who ‘lurks behind many survey designs’. The blog can be read at:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/belief/2012/dec/05/nones-on-the-run-religion

Evangelicals living the Christian life

Three-quarters (76%) of lay evangelicals have been Christians for more than twenty years, with an average of twenty-two years, ‘reflecting, perhaps, a lack of priority in evangelism’. Indeed, evangelism is only seen as the fourth most important (of six) key dimensions of church life. Stability is also suggested by the fact that two-fifths have never attended any other than their existing place of worship. Notwithstanding, the overwhelming majority of lay evangelicals consider that their faith has grown during the past year, the principal reasons for such growth being the fellowship and teaching (in services) of their church and house groups. The Bible is also deemed a significant influence, not just for faith development but in shaping attitudes to family and world; this is especially true of the over-40s. Prayer is widespread, 71% of these laity praying every day and a further 22% several times a week. However, they rather struggle with the concept of Christlikeness, which is typically expressed in terms of kindness, while 54% have a concern that ‘becoming more Christlike will increasingly alienate Christians from the culture around them’.

Source: Surveys undertaken by Brierley Consultancy in 2012 among 1,999 English evangelicals from three groups: a) churchgoers in seven congregations (three Anglican, one Baptist, three Independent); b) laity answering advertisements in Christian newspapers and magazines (and thus self-selecting); c) ministers from a range of denominations. The research was commissioned by the Langham Partnership (UK and Ireland), whose purpose is ‘to help churches grow in maturity or simple Christlikeness’, and which is running the ‘9-a-day: Becoming Like Jesus’ campaign in January-July 2013 ‘to encourage Christians in that transformative process’. A summary of the study (which BRIN found rather confusingly presented) appears in the 16-page pamphlet Living the Christian Life: Becoming Like Jesus (Tonbridge: ADBC Publishers, 2012). This can be obtained (for £2, inclusive of postage) from Brierley Consultancy, The Old Post Office, 1 Thorpe Avenue, Tonbridge, Kent, TN10 4PW, email peter@brierleyres.com. Also available for purchase from the same source are detailed reports of the research among laity in the seven participating congregations (Vol. 1) and the ministers (Vol. 2), priced £7.50 each. Cheques should be made payable to Peter Brierley.

Religion and belief in adult learning

Just over one-half (53%) of adult learners at further education colleges in England consider themselves to have a religion, a further 10% say that they have some form of non-religious belief (agnosticism, atheism, humanism, and spiritualism being most often mentioned), while 37% have neither. Students with religion are disproportionately to be found among the over-25s, women and ethnic minorities. Of those reporting a religion, 57% are Christian and 27% Muslim, and 53% claim actively to practise their religion. Within the learning environment 56% are fully or partially open about their religion or belief, typically through the expression of their opinions or the wearing (by 22%) of some form of religious dress or symbol. Although religion and/or belief are not widely seen as barriers to learning opportunities, 11% of adult learners with religious beliefs report that they have experienced bullying or harassment due to their religion and 4% due to their beliefs. This compares with 11% of those with non-religious beliefs who have been victims of bullying or harassment on account of their beliefs and 5% of those without any religion or belief. Fewer than one-third of victims have notified somebody in the learning environment about their experience of bullying or harassment. One-quarter of all adult learners state that they have had positive learning outcomes as a result of their religion or belief, rising to 35% of those with a religion.

Source: Survey of a self-selecting sample of 1,139 adult learners aged 19 and over (with 49% aged 19-29) attending further education colleges in England who completed an online questionnaire between 16 February and 11 May 2012. Women (63%) were overrepresented by 6% relative to the adult learning sector as a whole. The study was undertaken by Babcock Research on behalf of the Skills Funding Agency, with take-up of the survey being promoted by further education providers. It is reported in Donna James, Clare Lambley and Kay Turner, Religion and Belief in Adult Learning: Learner Views (Coventry: Skills Funding Agency, 2012), which is freely available at:

http://readingroom.skillsfundingagency.bis.gov.uk/sfa/Religion_and_Belief_report.pdf

 

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Faith of the Faithless

Posted on December 4, 2012 by Clive D. Field

‘Whatever the trends in affiliation to formalised religion in Britain, we are not a post-religious, still less a post-spiritual, society, and … even those “beyond the fringe” – who do not call themselves religious, attend religious services or believe in religious teachings – still have vestiges (and sometimes more than that) of religious and spiritual faith.’

‘It is quite wrong to assume that the … population falls into two categories: those who are committed religious believers and those who are wholly secularised. The reality is that there are many shades of gray between these two poles.’ Indeed, ‘overall, the proportion of people who are consistently non-religious … is very low at 9%.’

These are the conclusions of a new report by Nick Spencer and Holly Weldin, Post-Religious Britain? The Faith of the Faithless, which was published on 3 December 2012 by the Theos think tank and is available on its website at:

http://www.theosthinktank.co.uk/files/files/Post%20Religious%20Britain%20pdf.pdf

The Theos claims are based upon secondary analysis of three existing datasets: the NatCen/British Social Attitudes Survey of 2,229 British adults in June-November 2008 (BSA); a ComRes/Theos survey of 2,060 UK adults in October-November 2008 on attitudes to Charles Darwin (Darwin); and a ComRes/Theos survey of 1,749 English adults in August 2012 on attitudes to English cathedrals (Cathedrals).

Using these data, Theos investigated three groups of ‘faithless’: the ‘nevers’, those who say that they never participate in a religious service as a worshipper, amounting to 47% of the population (Cathedrals); ‘atheists’, those who say they disbelieve in God, representing 24% (Cathedrals); and the ‘non-religious’, the 44% (BSA) who reply ‘no religion’ in answer to the question ‘do you regard yourself as belonging to any particular religion?’

The report reviews the socio-demographic attributes of the ‘nevers’ and ‘atheists’ (pp. 11-15) before turning to the evidence for residual Christianity or spirituality to be found among all three groups (pp. 16-31). Specifically (data based on Cathedrals study, unless otherwise stated):

  • Nevers: 31% identify themselves as Christians, while 44% believe in a human soul, 35% in God or a higher power, 28% in life after death, 22% in reincarnation, 21% in angels, 20% in God as a universal life force, and 13% in the resurrection of Jesus from the dead 
  • Atheists: 11% identify themselves as Christians, 8% claim to worship at least once a year, with 23% believing in a human soul, 15% in life after death, 14% in reincarnation, 7% in angels, 5% in God as a universal life force, and 4% in the resurrection of Jesus from the dead 
  • Non-religious: 16% consider themselves to be very or moderately spiritual (BSA), 18% pray at least once a year (Darwin), 17% read the Bible at least once a year (Darwin), 22% attend a religious service at least once a year (Darwin), 34% (BSA) or 28% (Darwin) believe in life after death, 24% in heaven (BSA), 20% in the supernatural powers of deceased ancestors (BSA), 15% in hell (BSA), 10% that God designed and created the universe and remains involved with it (Darwin), and 7% that the Bible is the divinely inspired word of God (Darwin)

It seems inevitable that the report will excite some controversy, not least on the eve of the publication of the 2011 census of religious affiliation, which is likely to reveal an increase in those professing no religion since 2001. Some cynics (but naturally not BRIN) may even suggest that the timing of the release by Theos is designed to mitigate the ‘bad news’ which the census may well bring to people of faith.

The potential for such a row is notwithstanding the assurance of Spencer and Weldin that ‘there is no intended polemic within these findings’, their hope simply being that they will ‘prompt further research into non-religiosity in Britain’ (which is obviously a desirable goal). They warn that ‘using this data as ammunition in an on-going conflict’ between atheist and religious apologists would be ‘somewhat counterproductive’. But that is precisely what seems likely to happen.

Of all the statistics in this report, the claim that ‘those who are consistent in their rejection of all forms of religious and spiritual belief, affiliation and practice’ number a mere 9%, which appears on pp. 7 and 32, could prove most contentious, unless and until Theos can produce the detailed workings which show how they have arrived at this figure. Hopefully, they will provide such clarification at an early opportunity.

Other findings will come as no great surprise to many BRIN readers. Thus, while a decline in churchgoing is one legitimate indicator of ‘secularization’, few would regard it as the sole measure or mutually exclusive of faith. It is a practice upheld by the Church over two millennia, and backed up by legislation in England and Wales until (theoretically) as late as 1969. In opposition to it, it has long been a popular assertion, made well before the days of national sample surveys, that it is unnecessary to go to church to be a religious believer, ‘good Christian’, and so forth.

The fact that apparent ‘non-believers’ exhibit residual characteristics of religious belief and practice is also well-established. It was quantified in the first real sample survey devoted to religion, undertaken by Mass-Observation in the London Borough of Hammersmith in 1944-45, and published as Puzzled People in 1947. But it has also been demonstrated qualitatively in several important oral history projects at the start of the twentieth century.

There may be several explanations for the phenomenon, including the simple one that many people do not subscribe to a systematic, logical and consistent set of beliefs, in the way that theologians might like to expect us to behave. Rather, individuals assemble their own ‘theology’ from a spectrum of options spanning the orthodox to folklore and alternative.

Additionally, the ‘prestige factor’ associated with surveys on religion may still cause some to be wary of admitting that, in reality, they have rejected some conventional religious belief or practice. There is a particular tendency to exaggerate claims of churchgoing frequency, noted by Kathleen Bliss as early as 1948 in the Christian News-Letter, in which she quoted the experience of Mass-Observation and the BBC as pointing towards an inflator of two, i.e. halve the claim and you get somewhere near the ‘truth’.

It is likewise worth remembering that similar inconsistencies are to be found among many professing Christians, who appear to have abandoned much traditional Christian belief and practice and to be, effectively, secularized. The Richard Dawkins Foundation for Reason and Science made much of these anomalies in publicizing its Ipsos MORI poll of April 2011, as featured by BRIN at:

http://www.brin.ac.uk/news/2012/census-christians/

So, while Post-Religious Britain? is certainly to be welcomed, not least for providing further data from the Cathedrals study to set alongside those previously reported by Theos in Spiritual Capital, as well as for stimulating debate, perhaps it does not really tell us quite so much that is new.

Certainly, for understanding the socio-demographics of those who claim no religious affiliation, the forthcoming 2011 census data will be a far more authoritative source.

Finally, watch out for Professor Linda Woodhead’s blog provoked by Post-Religious Britain? This is forthcoming on The Guardian’s Comment is Free website.

 

Posted in Measuring religion, News from religious organisations, Survey news | Tagged , , , , , , , | 1 Comment

Newspaper Religion + Catholic Schools

Posted on December 4, 2012 by Clive D. Field

Today’s stories feature a longitudinal survey of the religious content of major national newspapers and the results of the 2012 annual census of Catholic schools in England and Wales.

Coverage of religion in newspapers

The proportion of page space (including advertisements) given over to religious issues in the print editions of English national newspapers in 2011 was higher in the broadsheets than in the tabloids, the range being from 0.4% in the Daily Star to 1.1% in The Guardian, with a mean of 0.7%. The mean has increased slightly since a previous survey in 1990 but remains below the figure of 0.8% in 1969. The only newspaper to reduce its religious content between 1990 and 2011 was The Independent (from 1.4 to 0.9%), at a time when The Guardian doubled its coverage. Full details are shown in the table below:  

All figures %

1969

1990

2011
TABLOIDS

 

 

 
Daily Express

0.5

0.4

0.6
Daily Mail

1.0

0.5

0.6
Daily Mirror

0.6

0.4

–
Daily Sketch

1.0

–

–
Daily Star

–

0.4

0.4
The Sun

0.8

0.5

0.6
BROADSHEETS

 

 

 
Daily Telegraph

0.5

0.7

1.0
The Guardian

1.1

0.5

1.1
The Independent

–

1.4

0.9
The Times

0.8

0.7

0.7
MEAN

0.8

0.6

0.7

The amount of this religious newspaper content assessed as being of a hostile nature fell from 18 to 16% across all the newspapers combined between 1969 and 1990 but almost doubled, to 29%, in 2011. The peak is to be found in the tabloid titles. Two-thirds of the religious coverage in the Daily Star is now of a negative character, one-half that in The Sun, and one-third in the Daily Express and Daily Mail. Hostile reporting is around one-fifth in two of the broadsheets (Daily Telegraph and The Guardian) but negligible in The Independent and The Times, albeit back in 1969 The Times stood at 17%. A major explanation for the growth in hostile content is to be found in the large number of anti-Muslim stories today (explored more fully in the forthcoming Cambridge University Press book by Paul Baker, Costas Gabrielatos and Tony McEnery, Discourse Analysis and Media Attitudes: The Representation of Islam in the British Press). The statistics of hostile coverage for each title follow: 

All figures %

1969

1990

2011
TABLOIDS

 

 

 
Daily Express

11

12

31
Daily Mail

18

30

35
Daily Mirror

12

12

–
Daily Sketch

35

–

–
Daily Star

–

25

65
The Sun

28

47

49
BROADSHEETS

 

 

 
Daily Telegraph

11

11

23
The Guardian

13

1

21
The Independent

–

2

3
The Times

17

6

4
MEAN

18

16

29

Source: Survey of the religious content of print editions of English national newspapers undertaken by Professor Robin Gill (now of the University of Kent) over four-week periods in August 1969, July 1990, and January-February 2011. Such content was defined as ‘items referring explicitly to religious institutions, their functionaries, or their central transcendent beliefs’, thereby excluding horoscopes (which occupied a large amount of space in the tabloids). Findings are reported textually in Gill’s Theology in a Social Context: Sociological Theology, Volume 1 (Farnham: Ashgate, 2012, ISBN 978-1-4094-2594-6, paperback, £19.99), chapter 11, pp. 187-205. The foregoing tables have been compiled by BRIN from Gill’s text, with some data also taken from his summary of the 1969 and 1990 surveys in his The Myth of the Empty Church (London: SPCK, 1993), p. 322.

Catholic schools in England and Wales

As at January 2012, there were 2,257 Catholic schools and colleges in England and Wales, 2,118 in the maintained and 139 in the independent sector. Four-fifths of all schools educated children to primary level only. There were 103 fewer schools (4%) than in 2011, although the number of pupils at them rose slightly (by under 1%). The total of pupil enrolments was 795,955 in the maintained sector (equivalent to 10% of all pupils in English schools but somewhat less in Wales) and 42,801 in the independent sector.

The number of Catholic pupils at these Catholic schools was 71% for maintained schools in England, 60% for maintained schools in Wales, and 37% in independent schools. The proportion also varied by educational phase, being 73% in maintained primary schools, 69% in secondary schools, and just 44% in sixth form colleges. Rather fewer of the teachers at Catholic schools were Catholics (55% in the maintained and 34% in the independent sector), the maintained figure having fallen by three points since 2007. In the maintained sector the number of Catholic teachers dropped from 68% in primary schools to 44% in secondary schools to 35% in colleges.

For England some comparisons are possible with the overall national picture. Thus, Catholic maintained schools attracted 6% more pupils from ethnic minorities than the national average, but 2% fewer of all their pupils than the norm were eligible for free school meals. On the Income Deprivation Affecting Children Index (IDACI), 4% more pupils attending Catholic maintained primary schools than all maintained primary schools lived in the most deprived 10% of areas. At secondary level the differential was 5% in favour of Catholic schools.

Source: Census of Catholic schools and colleges in England and Wales undertaken by the Catholic Education Service for England and Wales (CESEW) in January 2012, with a response rate of 98% (the best ever achieved in these annual surveys). Selected tables and analysis are contained in the CESEW’s Digest of 2012 Census Data for Schools and Colleges, which has just been published and is available at:

http://www.catholiceducation.org.uk/index.php/ces-census

An expert commentary on the Digest by Tony Spencer of the Pastoral Research Centre Trust will shortly be published on his blog at:

http://www.prct.org.uk/

 

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British Cohort Study + Fostering

Posted on December 2, 2012 by Clive D. Field

Our main story in today’s round-up of religious statistical news features initial findings from the current wave of one of the few genuinely longitudinal studies covering religion in this country, which further illustrates some of the methodological challenges involved in framing questions about religious affiliation. We also briefly note a survey of attitudes to inter-religious fostering in the wake of the recent row over fostering in Rotherham.

British Cohort Study: art of asking questions about religion

Among adult Britons now (2012) aged 42 years, 68% recall that they had some form of religious upbringing (32% as Anglicans, 10% as Roman Catholics, 8% as Christians in a specified denomination, 14% as undenominational Christians, 4% as non-Christians) and 32% none. However, today almost half (47%) regard themselves as belonging to no particular religion, with the biggest drop in affiliation (11%) being among those raised as Anglicans. Moreover, claimed attendance at religious services or meetings by these 42-year-olds is a distinctly minority activity, 74% never or rarely going, 16% occasionally but less than once a month, with 11% monthly or more often.

In terms of belief, 43% of these 42-year-olds say they believe in God (13% without doubts, 18% with doubts, and 12% some of the time). A further 14% believe in a higher power but not a personal God. Of the rest, 22% definitely do not believe in God and 20% are uncertain. The proportion who believe in life after death is slightly higher than in a personal God (49%, 19% definitely and 30% probably), with 18% replying definitely not and 34% probably not. In an echo of Mass-Observation’s classic 1947 study of Puzzled People, 23% of those who believe in God do not believe in life after death, and 21% of those who disbelieve in, or are uncertain about the existence of, God do believe in an afterlife.

Source: Analysis of initial responses (n = 2,197) to the May-December 2012 wave of the 1970 British Cohort Study (BCS70), which is following the lives of more than 17,000 people born in Britain in a single week during Spring 1970. By 2012 panel members were, accordingly, aged 42. They supplied information about religion by means of self-completion questionnaire in connection with the face-to-face interviews being conducted by TNS-BMRB. An important health warning is given by the researchers: ‘These [initial] responses may not be representative of the sample as a whole, and we have not investigated the characteristics of this subsample.’

The preliminary analysis appears in Alice Sullivan, David Voas and Matt Brown, The Art of Asking Questions about Religion, published on 28 November 2012 by the Centre for Longitudinal Studies (CLS), Institute of Education, University of London. The CLS, which oversees BCS70, is a resource centre funded by the Economic and Social Research Council. The report also summarizes the replies to religious affiliation questions given by cohort members in 1986, 1996, 2000, and 2004, making comparisons with British Social Attitudes Surveys, and highlighting how ‘apparently small differences in question wording can lead to dramatic differences in responses’. Of course, the fact that consistent question-wording has not been used for each wave of BCS70 does somewhat undermine the value of the longitudinal approach in charting changes in the behaviour of panel members as they age. 

The press release by CLS, with a link for downloading the report, and observations on the findings by BRIN’s David Voas, can be found at:

http://www.cls.ioe.ac.uk/news.aspx?itemid=2431&itemTitle=More+people+may+believe+in+life+after+death+than+God%2c+study+finds&sitesectionid=905&sitesectiontitle=Press+Releases

Fostering

The majority (70%) of Britons think it definitely or usually acceptable for children to be fostered by foster parents who practice a different religion to that of the children being fostered. This is a higher proportion than believe that people with criminal records should be allowed to foster children (15%), or those with extreme political views (36%), the over-65s (44%), smokers (46%), and gays or lesbians (66%).

However, there is somewhat less approval of fostering by persons of a different religion to the foster child than is the case with fostering by unmarried couples (81%) or people of a different racial group to the child (85%). One-fifth (20%) contend that fostering across the religious divide should not be permitted, with Londoners and Conservative voters (each on 23%) and men (22%) being most likely to hold this view. The remaining 11% express no opinion.

Source: Online survey of 1,910 Britons aged 18 and over, undertaken by YouGov on 26-27 November 2012, and prompted by the current row in Rotherham where foster children have been taken away from foster parents who are members of the United Kingdom Independence Party. Full data tables, published on 28 November, are available at:

http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/q1p1s7kwva/Fostering_Results_121127.pdf

 

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Teaching Christianity and Other News

Posted on November 27, 2012 by Clive D. Field

Today’s round-up of religious news highlights poll data in support of the improved teaching of religious education (RE) in schools and presents a gender breakdown of last week’s vote on women bishops in the Church of England’s General Synod.

Teaching Christianity in RE

There is ‘widespread support in England for the teaching of Christianity as part of Religious Education’ in schools, according to newly-released data. Two-thirds (64%) of English adults agree that children need to learn about Christianity in order to understand English history, and 57% to comprehend the English culture and way-of-life. Even among those describing themselves as not religious the figures are 54% and 41% respectively.

Just under one-half (44%) of the English also say that more attention should be given to the teaching of Christianity in schools, and this is particularly true of the over-55s, albeit much less so (26%) among those identifying as not religious. But 37% of all adults feel that many RE teachers do not know enough about Christianity themselves in order to be able to teach it effectively.

Areas of Christianity which people regard as especially important for children to learn about in RE are the history of Christianity (58%), major Christian events and festivals (56%), and how Christianity distinguishes right from wrong (51%). Fewer (38%) mention that pupils should be taught the Bible, with no more than 30% wanting them to learn the Lord’s Prayer.

It would naturally be wrong to infer from these results that adults solely wish to prioritize the teaching of Christianity in RE at the expense of other world faiths (or none). Indeed, other polls indicate strong support for a pluralistic approach to RE, but (apparently) this was not explored in this particular investigation.

Source: Online survey by YouGov among 1,832 adults aged 18 and over in England between 16 and 18 May 2012. The poll was conducted on behalf of Oxford University’s Department of Education as the initial stage of a national intervention project, led by Dr Nigel Fancourt and funded by various charitable trusts, to support teachers tackling the subject of Christianity in schools. It seeks to address concerns raised by Ofsted inspectors and others about how Christianity is currently being taught.

The full data from the survey have yet to be released into the public domain. This BRIN report is therefore based upon various online media coverage on 26 November 2012, when some of the findings were published, particularly in a press release by Oxford University at:

http://www.ox.ac.uk/media/news_releases_for_journalists/121126.html

Gender analysis of General Synod vote on women bishops

The Church of England published on 26 November 2012 the General Synod electronic voting results for the Bishops and Priests (Consecration and Ordination of Women) Measure, debated (and lost) on 20 November 2012. The list appears at:

http://churchofengland.org/media/1588752/item%20501.pdf

From the list of names BRIN has compiled an analysis of voting by the gender of General Synod members in each of the three Houses (of Bishops, Clergy, Laity), excluding the two episcopal abstentions, as follows:

 

Men

Men

Women

Women

Total

Total
 

For

Against

For

Against

For

Against
Bishops

44

3

0

0

44

3
Clergy

94

44

54

1

148

45
Laity

74

41

58

33

132

74
Total

212

88

112

34

324

122

It can be calculated that, across the Synod as a whole, opposition to the Measure to permit women bishops stood at 29% among male members and 23% for female members (with an average of 27%). However, whereas only one of the women in the House of Clergy, or 2%, was opposed, the proportion was 36% in the House of Laity. Indeed, in the House of Laity the Measure failed to attain the requisite two-thirds majority for passing among both male and female members (64% each voting in favour).

Social welfare

There are a few – but not fully consistent – religious differences in attitudes to social welfare, according to a new study. Christians (75%) are somewhat more likely than those with no religion (66%) to say that ‘the creation of the welfare state is one of Britain’s proudest achievements’. However, more of the latter (76%) than the former (68%) agree that ‘everyone has the right to a minimum standard of living which should be paid for if necessary by the welfare state’. Slightly more Christians (67%) than nones (62%) consider that the benefits system is not working well and needs improvement or radical overhaul.

In the view of 48% of Christians and 40% of nones the level of benefits people receive should be proportionate to the amount of tax which they have paid. Larger numbers of Christians than those of no religion favour universal state pensions (77% versus 72%) and winter fuel allowance (25% against 20%), but the reverse is true of universal child benefit (supported by 39% compared with 43%).

Source: Telephone survey of 1,001 Britons aged 18 and over by ComRes for BBC Radio 4 on 16-18 November 2012. The number of respondents for religious groups other than Christians and none (n = 548 and 297 respectively) is too small to be meaningful. Full data tables published on 27 November and available at:

http://www.comres.co.uk/polls/BBC_Welfare_Poll_November2012.pdf

Profiling the ‘nones’

The number of Britons professing to have no religion reached 36% in a recent poll, but they are not evenly spread across the demographic groups. They are particularly to be found among those aged 18-34, of whom they constitute 47%, and they account for only 26% of the over-65s. Doubtless in reflection of this youthful profile, the nones comprise 42% of persons with the lowest annual household income (up to £14,000). They also have an above-average representation in South-West and Northern England and Wales (41%). By contrast, they are under-represented (28%) among Conservative voters, 69% of the latter being Christians (13% more than for all adults).

Source: Online survey of 2,066 Britons aged 18 and over, conducted by Populus on 24-26 October 2012 on behalf of the Conservative Party. Details contained in table 18 at:

http://www.populus.co.uk/uploads/OmChild_Benefit.pdf

 

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