Anti-Conservative Vote

Religion is the single most powerful predictor (among eight factors) of an individual’s likelihood to say that they would never vote Conservative, with 44% of those with no faith rejecting the possibility of supporting the Tories, compared with 35% of Muslims, 32% of Christians, 26% of Sikhs, and 19% of Hindus. Just 15% overall stated that they would never vote Labour, including 7% of Muslims, 6% of Hindus, and 5% of Sikhs.

These findings emerged from a new report – Degrees of Separation: Ethnic Minority Voters and the Conservative Party – released by Lord Ashcroft (businessman, author and philanthropist, and ex-Deputy Chairman of the Conservative Party) on his blog on 28 April 2012, and featured in the Sunday Telegraph the following day. The 50-page report and 159 pages of data tables are available at: 

http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2012/04/ethnic-minority-voters-and-the-conservative-party-2/

10,268 adults living in the census-defined Middle Layer Super Output Areas with the highest concentration of black and minority ethnic (BME) persons were interviewed by telephone on Ashcroft’s behalf between 24 October and 4 December 2011. These areas, which are largely urban and working class in profile, account for 70% of the BME population of England and Wales.

The sample included 4,590 self-identifying Christians, 513 Hindus, 1,747 Muslims, 308 Sikhs, 761 other religions, and 2,124 of no religion. Christians and those of no religion were overwhelmingly white (77% and 84%), with 94% of Sikhs and 90% of Hindus Asians. 67% of Muslims were Asian, 12% white, and 11% black.

In the May 2010 general election 24% of Christians recalled that they had voted Conservative, against 18% of Hindus, 15% of Sikhs, 13% of no religion, and 12% of Muslims. The Labour vote had been highest among Muslims (41%) and lowest for Christians (28%), with Hindus and Muslims on 35% and 37% respectively. Non-voters were above the average of 29% for Muslims (31%) and those of no religion (33%).

In the event of a general election being held ‘tomorrow’, only 6% of Muslims said they would vote Conservative, 7% of Sikhs, 13% of no religion, 14% of Hindus, and 20% of Christians and other religions. 51% of Muslims, 48% of Sikhs, 37% of Hindus, 33% of Christians and those of no religion, and 31% of other religions inclined to support Labour. 

Asked whether they identified with one political party as consistently representing people like themselves, only 5% of Muslims and 9% of Hindus and Sikhs replied the Conservative Party (against 15% of Christians and 8% of no religion). The affinity of 47% of Muslims, 46% of Sikhs, 38% of Hindus, 30% of Christians, and 23% of those with no religion was with the Labour Party.  

Of all religions, Muslims were especially prone to say that the Conservative Party (41%) and David Cameron (38%) do not really care about people from different ethnic or religious backgrounds. However, these figures were somewhat exceeded by those professing no religion (44% and 39%). 8% of Muslims saw the Conservatives and Cameron as actively hostile to individuals from different ethnic or religious backgrounds.

Correlated component regression analysis was used to isolate specific views most often associated with an unwillingness to vote Conservative among BME religious groups. For Muslims the strongest drivers were found to be a perception that the Conservative Party does not stand for fairness, is actively hostile to people from different ethnic and religious backgrounds, and that its policies have shown this to be the case.

Non-Christians and those without faith were somewhat more likely than Christians to believe that the economy and employment were the most important issues facing the country. Muslims (57%) were far more likely to prioritize education than Christians (38%), and, together with those of no religion, much less likely than Christians, Hindus and Sikhs to see control of immigration as a key topic (one-quarter for the two former versus two-fifths for the three latter groups).

It must be reiterated that the main purpose of Ashcroft’s survey was to probe BME attitudes to the Conservative Party. Its underlying sample was not nationally representative, especially in terms of social class and locality. Also, for BMEs the Ethnic Minority British Election Study (EMBES) is an important alternative dataset. Some preliminary analysis of this by religion was posted on BRIN’s website last year by Ben Clements and Maria Sobolewska at:

http://www.brin.ac.uk/news/2011/the-ethnic-minority-british-election-study-embes-part-ii/

and

http://www.brin.ac.uk/news/2011/religion-and-politics-among-ethnic-minorities-in-britain/

 

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Online Mission

Many UK Christians view the internet as a mission field, and are already exploiting its potential in that regard. This is according to an online poll of 703 of them conducted during February and March 2012 and published on 24 April 2012. The survey was undertaken by Christian Vision, via bigsurveys.com, in partnership with Premier Christian Media (and in support of the latter’s New Media Centre of Excellence, which has recently launched a free training programme for church leaders on new media communications).

The sample was apparently a self-selecting one of Christians who, self-evidently, are already internet-savvy. It is, therefore, probably unrepresentative of churchgoers as a whole, and its findings should be seen as illustrative rather than definitive. In particular, respondents included disproportionate numbers of evangelicals (75%) and church leaders (43%). Denominationally, Anglicans (23%), Pentecostals (17%) and Baptists (15%) together accounted for more than half of participating Christians. There was also a predominance (43%) of 45-64s.

84% of all Christians interviewed (peaking at 94% of church leaders and 92% of the 35-44s) agreed that cyberspace is a huge mission field, with 74% disagreeing that the gospel message is too deep to be properly shared online. 65% said that they were already using social networks to share their faith in an intentional way (including 87% of 16-18s, 73% of Pentecostals, and 72% of church leaders), and 71% claimed to post links to Christian sites or content with missional values.

Social media activity was found not to be just the preserve of the young, but to be spread across the age spectrum (even among the over-65s), albeit younger people were more likely than their elders to have non-Christian friends to evangelize and were more active and more confident in sharing their faith online. Overall, the sample was four times more likely to have a majority of non-Christian friends online than offline. Despite its potential, however, only 25% said that their church encouraged online mission (compared with 59% saying that their church was generally effective in outreach and evangelism).

For Premier’s press release about the poll, an infographic of headline findings, and a link to the full data, go to:

http://www.newmediacentreofexcellence.org.uk/resources/onlineevangelism

 

 

 

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Children and Pornography

Today’s Daily Mail reports that the Government may be back-tracking, on civil liberties grounds, on its commitments to introduce tough measures to protect children from access to online pornography, which would entail explicit requirements to opt into adult content.

However, the UK’s churchgoing Christians are resolute in their determination that something needs to be done to curtail access to such content, according to a ComRes CPanel poll for Premier Christian Media Trust released on 18 April 2012.

Online interviews were undertaken with 519 Christians between 8 and 30 March 2012. Results – disaggregated by age, gender, region, denomination, churchmanship and parenthood – are available at:  

http://www.comres.co.uk/polls/Premier_CPanel_Pornography_survey_March_2012.pdf

Asked whose responsibility it is to ensure children are prevented from accessing pornography on the internet, 99% of Christians replied parents, 84% internet service providers (ISPs), 72% mobile phone network providers, 65% regulatory bodies, 60% Government, and 35% children themselves.

88% of Christians favoured a system whereby pornographic content would be automatically blocked by ISPs, requiring customers aged 18 and over to opt into adult services. Only 8% favoured an opt out arrangement.

In the face of the strong reservations expressed by ISPs about blocking pornography, 75% of Christians wanted the Government to force providers to block such content, with 13% opposed and 12% undecided.

Somewhat fewer, 57% of Christians, said that they would be willing to pay more for their internet subscription to fund the cost of the filtering technology needed for an opt in scheme. 28% were unwilling to pay extra, and 15% could not make up their minds.

The traditional 9 pm watershed on television was widely regarded as being ineffective, following the introduction of replay services such as iPlayer, ITV Player and 4OD. 79% were of this opinion, compared with just 8% who saw the watershed as still effective.

Questioned about the age from which someone should be allowed to watch pornography, bearing in mind that 16 is the age of consent, 11% replied from the age of 16, 27% from the age of 18, and 9% from the age of 21. But 42% (and 52% of women) wanted pornography banned altogether.

Looking at the root causes of the problem, four-fifths of respondents thought that the Churches should be doing more to support parents in educating their children about sex. 8% disagreed and 12% were uncertain.

Two unrelated topics were also covered in the poll. Most (78%) felt that the obligation to teach children to read rested with schools and parents equally. The responsibility to teach them about Christianity was seen to fall on parents (94%), Churches (93%) and schools (60%).

 

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Theresa May’s Bad Hair Day

Just over half (54%) of the British public think that Home Secretary Theresa May has badly handled the issue of the deportation to his native Jordan of Abu Qatada al-Filistini, the radical Muslim cleric given asylum in Britain in 1994 but who has since been implicated in Islamist terrorism. 28% gave a positive assessment of May’s performance in the affair, and 18% expressed no opinion.

The findings come from a YouGov survey for The Sunday Times, conducted online on 19 and 20 April 2012 following last week’s revelations that the Government may have miscalculated the date by which Qatada had to file any appeal against deportation to the European Court of Human Rights (which he did at the eleventh hour). Tables for the poll, in which 1,715 adults were interviewed, have been posted at:

http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/skmim3awcy/YG-Archives-SundayTimes-results-200412.pdf

May is a Conservative minister in a Coalition administration with Liberal Democrats, so it is not perhaps surprising that there were a below average number of critics of her handling of the Qatada case among Conservative (39%) and Liberal Democrat (48%) voters. Labour supporters were very condemnatory (65%). The over-60s were almost twice as critical of May as the 18-24s (63% versus 35% respectively).

An overwhelming majority of Britons (81%) wanted Qatada to be deported now, regardless of his appeal, the figure peaking at 91% among Conservative voters, 87% of the over-60s and 85% of Scots. 14% considered Qatada should be allowed to stay in Britain while his appeal is heard and then deported if he loses; Liberal Democrats (23%) particularly favoured this course of action.

These results represent a hardening of public opinion since it was last tested by YouGov on 9 and 10 February 2012. Then 70% of respondents opted for Qatada’s deportation, irrespective of whether he would be guaranteed a fair trial in Jordan (the stumbling-block at that time being whether Jordan would use evidence obtained by torture against Qatada). For BRIN’s coverage of this earlier survey, see:

http://www.brin.ac.uk/news/2012/abu-qatada/

 

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London Mayoral Elections

Just a week after the publication of the Demos report Faithful Citizens, which established linkages between people of faith and progressive politics, comes evidence that religious issues are creeping into the forthcoming and hotly-contested elections for London’s Mayor.

This is suggested by a YouGov poll for the Evening Standard, conducted online between 13 and 15 April 2012 among a sample of 1,060 Greater London residents aged 18 and over. The full data tables are available at:

http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/q040gzgswz/YG-Archives-EveningStandard-MayoralRace-160412.pdf

One of the questions asked was about the eleventh-hour intervention of the current London Mayor, the Conservative Boris Johnson, to block an advertising campaign on the capital’s buses by two Christian groups (Core Issues Trust and Anglican Mainstream).

The proposed advertisement appeared to suggest, as Johnson saw it, that ‘being gay is an illness that someone recovers from’. The poster was widely regarded as mocking one by the pro-gay group Stonewall which implied that homosexuality is perfectly natural.

51% of Londoners thought that Johnson had been right to ban the advert, rising to 58% of his own supporters, 12% more than among the backers of Labour’s Mayoral candidate (Ken Livingstone), who one might have expected to have taken an even tougher pro-equality stance.

Women were more likely to endorse Johnson’s actions in the affair than men, the 18-24s more than older age cohorts, non-manual workers than manuals, and whites than non-whites. 26% opposed Johnson’s intervention, with 24% undecided.

More generally, 48% of voters thought that, in his election campaign, Johnson wanted to help some groups more than others (with 35% convinced he was out to assist all Londoners). Of the former sub-sample, 78% identified rich Londoners as the group being advantaged by Johnson and 23% white Londoners. Only 5% each said Jews or Muslims, although the proportion reached 11% and 13% respectively among those intending to vote for Johnson as Mayor.

Slightly more of the whole sample, 53%, believed that Livingstone was out disproportionately to benefit only some groups of Londoners. Of these, 41% were convinced he wanted to help Muslims (rising to 53% among the over-60s), 40% Black and Asian Londoners, and 40% poor Londoners.

9% (and 12% of his own supporters) saw Livingstone as out to favour Jews, a figure which may be slightly inflated on account of the humble pie Livingstone has been publicly eating following his recent suggestion that Jews would not vote Labour because they are too rich.

This is not the first time that Livingstone has incurred the wrath of British Jewry. In 2005, when in his second term as Mayor of London himself (he was unseated by Johnson in 2008), he got into very hot water by refusing to apologize for likening a Jewish reporter to a concentration camp guard. Public attitudes to the controversy were tested out in a ComRes survey at the time, in which 50% thought that Livingstone had been wrong not to apologize and 32% right.

Coming back to the current YouGov poll, it would appear that London’s Jews are not seen as being especially courted by either of the two main Mayoral candidates. However, whether true or not, Livingstone is obviously perceived as making a strong pitch for the Muslim vote, in contrast to Johnson. 22% of all Londoners think Livingstone has the Muslim vote in his sights.

This accords with a widespread view in the 1980s and 1990s that Muslims particularly favoured Labour, but that all seems to have changed with Muslim opposition to the Labour administration’s military involvement in Iraq and Afghanistan in the 2000s.

Doubtless, fresh in Livingstone’s mind are the lessons of the recent by-election in Bradford West where Respect’s George Galloway inflicted a heavy defeat on Labour’s candidate (Imran Hussain), with a 37% swing, apparently as a result of a widespread defection of Muslims from Labour to Respect.   

 

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Eastertide Anglican News

The Church of England issued two statistics-related press releases in the run-up to Easter, the first (on 3 April 2012) concerning the 2011 headline mission statistics for its cathedrals under the heading ‘Cathedral Attendance Statistics Enjoy over a Decade of Growth’. With a link to a five-page detailed report, this can be viewed at:

http://churchofengland.org/media-centre/news/2012/03/cathedral-attendance-statistics-enjoy-over-a-decade-of-growth.aspx

The release majored on the fact that attendance at regular weekly services in Anglican cathedrals had steadily risen since the turn of the millennium, cumulatively by 30%, although there was a 1% fall between 2010 and 2011, entirely due to a reduction in under-16s worshipping on Sundays. Midweek attendance, by both adults and children, in 2011 was at its highest level since records began in 2000.

Christmas and Easter attendances generally showed stability during the decade. While Christmas congregations were 17% up in 2011 over 2010, this was probably due to the weather being much better in 2011, and to Christmas Day falling on a Sunday that year. The increase for Advent was 14%, with the absolute figure fractionally under the decennial peak in 2008.

Turnout at Christmas was incomparably (almost three times) better than at Easter. There were 2% fewer Easter Eve/Day attendants in 2011 than in 2001 and 3% fewer communicants. 2006 and 2007 were the best years for Easter Day/Eve worshippers at cathedrals. Overall Holy Week congregations in 2011 were 4% below 2010.

The report also contains figures for cathedral-related rites of passage, specially arranged services, public or civic events, educational activities, and volunteers and visitors. Including Westminster Abbey and other Royal Peculiars, there were an estimated 12 million visitors to English cathedrals in 2011, much the same as for 2010, albeit there has been some decline since 2001.

The report naturally cannot address the extent to which changes in all the cathedral numbers reflect shifts in allegiance from parish churches to cathedrals. In other words, has there been genuine growth in cathedrals, or has it been a case of robbing Peter to pay Paul?

The second press release (5 April 2012) highlighted the findings of an online poll of 2,000 adults, conducted for the Church of England by ICM Research between 30 March and 1 April. Only one question was asked: ‘Irrespective of whether you currently pray or not, if you were to pray for something at the moment, what would it be for?’ 85% of respondents expressed a desire to pray for something, the most popular answers being:

  • A family member – 26%
  • Peace in the world – 25%
  • Healing for another – 20%
  • Less stress in my life – 17%
  • An end to world poverty – 16%
  • Guidance – 15%
  • Thankfulness – 15%
  • My partner – 14%
  • Prosperity – 14%
  • A friend – 13%
  • Healing for myself – 12%
  • Marriage or relationship – 11%
  • Forgiveness – 10%
  • Work – 8%
  • My spiritual life – 7%
  • My studies – 4%
  • My church – 4%

The survey was commissioned by the Church of England to commemorate the prayer of Jesus Christ in the Garden of Gethsemane, and to promote awareness of the prayoneforme website and Facebook page. The press release can be read at:

http://churchofengland.org/media-centre/news/2012/04/church-asks-‘what-would-you-pray-for-with-jesus-in-the-garden-of-gethsemane’-as-survey-finds-85-per-cent-have-things-they-would-pray-for.aspx

 

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Holy Saturday Polls

Spending time with family and friends is the most important part of Easter for 43% of Britons, followed by having a break from work (18%) and only thirdly the festival’s religious meaning (17%), with the exchanging of Easter eggs trailing at 2%.

So finds a YouGov poll for The Sun, in which a representative sample of 1,742 adults aged 18 and over was interviewed online. The full data tabulations will doubtless be posted on the internet after Easter, but The Sun’s article can be viewed at:

http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/features/4243643/What-does-Easter-really-mean-to-you.html

79% of respondents had no plans to go to church over the Easter period, 16% thought they might (three-quarters of them on Easter Sunday), with 5% uncertain. It is likely that the good intentions of many of the 16% may well not translate into reality.

Weddings and funerals excluded, 12% claimed to be regular (monthly or more) churchgoers ordinarily, with 20% going very occasionally and 66% never or less than once a year.

19% said that they prayed on a daily or near-daily basis, 23% infrequently, and 54% never or less than once a year. 31% believed that prayer actually works, but 24% were unsure, and 45% adamant that it was ineffective.

76% claimed to know the Lord’s Prayer, while 21% did not. This compares with 55% of children aged 6-12 interviewed for BBC Newsround recently, far fewer than the 92% of adults who recalled knowing the prayer when a child forty years before.

87% considered Britain to be less religious than fifty years ago.

56% of Britons agreed that people should have the right to wear religious symbols at work, currently the matter of heated public debate and several legal cases. Only 11% disagreed, with 24% feeling that it is for employers to decide, and 9% uncertain.

There was less outright support for religious assemblies in schools. 31% thought that all schools should have them and 16% that they should not be allowed to, the largest group (48%) wanting schools to be able to decide for themselves. 5% expressed no opinion.

Commenting upon the YouGov results, David Meara (Archdeacon of London) writes: ‘This is a fairly accurate picture of the spiritual condition of our society – a mixture of increasing secularism with a desire for meaning and depth to existence.’

Meanwhile, another Easter-related poll released today is from Travelodge, in which 5,000 Britons were interviewed. Among the findings were:

  • four-tenths were not interested in the religious side of Easter
  • 28% expected to observe Good Friday as a fast day
  • 82% did not plan to attend church this weekend (much the same as in YouGov’s study)
  • 53% of children did not know the meaning of Easter, and one-quarter reckoned it is about celebrating the Easter bunny’s birthday

No details of the survey appear on the Travelodge website as yet (press and marketing folk in many companies are notoriously slow at posting press releases online, if they ever do), but there has been a small amount of news coverage. See, for example:

http://www.express.co.uk/posts/view/313118/Half-of-kids-say-Easter-s-for-bunnies

http://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/view/244410/Easter-break-is-just-for-Bunny-s-birthday/

 

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Channel 4 Britishness Poll

Although, as reported by BRIN on 18 February 2012, 56% of adults think that Britain is a Christian country and 61% that it should be, only 4% (and no more than 8% in any demographic sub-group, the peak being among over-65s) consider that not being a Christian stops people from being fully British.

This compares with not speaking English (59%), being born outside the UK (26%), not mixing with other groups (25%), not living in Britain (18%), having foreign-born parents (11%), not being white (9%), dressing differently (8%), and having an accent (7%).

This new finding is from an Ipsos MORI survey for Channel 4 in connection with the latter’s recently-broadcast two-part documentary Make Bradford British. Face-to-face interviews were conducted with 998 Britons aged 18 and over between 27 January and 5 February 2012. Data tables have now been posted online at:

http://www.ipsos-mori.com/Assets/Docs/Britishness%20tabs.PDF

Two other questions from the poll will also be of interest to BRIN readers:

  • During the past year 68% of respondents claimed to have regularly (monthly or more) mixed socially (outside work or school) with persons of a different religious belief, against 66% in the case of people from a different ethnic background, 90% from a different generation, and 62% of a different sexuality – inter-religious mixing was most pronounced among the 15-34s (74%), non-manuals (73%), graduates (75%), readers of broadsheet newspapers (79%), non-whites (83%), Londoners (88%), and those disagreeing that there were too many immigrants (80%).
  • 62% of Britons correctly identified the date of St George’s Day, when England’s patron saint is commemorated, albeit the proportion fell to only 49% of the 15-34s, 48% of the lowest (DE) social grade, and 32% of non-whites.

 

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