Science and Technology Committee on the Census

Posted on September 21, 2012 by Clive D. Field

‘MPs have warned that a decision to discontinue the census would have a negative impact on the Government’s social science analysis, as well as social science research in the UK, and that alternative systems for collecting population data may not prove to be any cheaper.’

These are the headlines from the enquiry undertaken by the House of Commons Science and Technology Committee, chaired by Andrew Miller MP, into The Census and Social Science, whose two-volume report was published today (21 September 2012) as HC 322. It is available at:

http://www.parliament.uk/business/committees/committees-a-z/commons-select/science-and-technology-committee/news/120921science-and-social-science-report-published/

The context for the study is the consultation Beyond 2011, which is being undertaken by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) into the alternatives to running a full population census in 2021. ONS will report its findings in 2014. The census has its detractors, especially those who regard it as costly and failing to provide timely enough data.

The Select Committee’s report is relatively brief (thirty pages) and generic. It does not explicitly mention religion, which has been the subject of a census question in 2001 and 2011. However, the importance of religious data is recognized in about a dozen of the forty-two submissions of written evidence and in oral evidence given by Professor Leslie Mayhew of City University. The oral and written evidence is included in the report.

Only two of the submissions of written evidence came from religious bodies: the Salvation Army and the Institute for Jewish Policy Research jointly with the Board of Deputies of British Jews. Both were naturally concerned about the census as a source of community statistics as well as of specifically religious data.

The fact that faith communities in general failed to respond to the Select Committee’s enquiry is perhaps surprising, given that several were active from the 1970s onwards in pressing for the inclusion of a religion question in the census. Seemingly, they do not identify strongly with social scientific research. Hopefully, they will be contributing to the ONS consultation in other ways.

 

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Faith and Death

Posted on July 22, 2012 by Clive D. Field

Although one-half of all Britons claimed not to belong to any religion in the latest (2010) British Social Attitudes Survey, 85% of the dying subscribe to some faith, according to a Government survey of their relatives published on 3 July 2012.

The First National VOICES Survey of Bereaved People: Key Findings Report was commissioned by the Department for Health, in line with the commitment made in the End of Life Care Strategy (2008). Fieldwork was undertaken by the Office for National Statistics.

A one in six sample of adult deaths was drawn from those registered in England between 1 November 2010 and 30 June 2011, and a self-completion postal questionnaire was sent to the bereaved informant in November 2011, 22,292 (46%) of whom responded.

The breakdown of ages of death was as follows: under 60 7%, 60-69 11%, 70-79 21%, 80-89 39%, 90 and above 23%. The concentration is inevitably in age cohorts which, in sample surveys of the living, tend to score quite highly on measures of religiosity.

Excluding nil or invalid responses, 15% of the deceased were reported by their relatives as having no religion, 83% as Christians, and 2% of other religions. The proportion of non-Christians is much less than in society as a whole, where they have a relatively youthful profile and thus a lower risk of death.  

Asked about the support which the bereaved had received from carers during the last two days of their life, spiritual support received the lowest rating (67% saying it had been excellent or good).

This compared with 80% for support to stay where the dying wanted to be, 79% for relief of pain, 74% for relief of other symptoms, and 71% for emotional support. 19% described the spiritual support as poor and 13% as merely fair.

The combined rating of excellent or good for spiritual support varied by cause of death. It was best (74%) in cases of cancer, with 63% for cardiovascular diseases, and 64% for other causes.

Place of death also made a vast difference to satisfaction with spiritual support: 91% for deaths in a hospice, 74% at home, 74% in a care home, but only 57% in a hospital. This finding could well fan the flames of debate about hospital chaplaincy.

Nevertheless, religious care seems to have been comparatively limited for patients who had been in their own home during the last three months of life. Just 4% of relatives mentioned help by religious leaders, against 20% by home care workers, 16% by nurses, 8% by social or support workers, and 7% by occupational therapists.

The First National VOICES Survey report is available at:

http://www.dh.gov.uk/health/files/2012/07/First-national-VOICES-survey-of-bereaved-people-key-findings-report-final.pdf

and Excel tables of data at:

http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/publications/re-reference-tables.html?edition=tcm%3A77-266228

Other BRIN posts on religion and end-of-life care include:

http://www.brin.ac.uk/news/2011/death-and-dying-in-eastern-england/

and

http://www.brin.ac.uk/news/2010/doctors-and-end-of-life-decisions/

 

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Marriages in England and Wales, 2010

Posted on March 1, 2012 by Clive D. Field

Although there was a modest (0.4%) increase in the number of marriages solemnized in places of worship in England and Wales between 2009 and 2010, it was less than the 3.7% growth in total marriages. Consequently, the proportion of marriages conducted according to religious ceremonies continued its relentless fall, standing at 31.8% in 2010, as against 32.9% in 2009. 1991 was the last year in which the majority of marriages in England and Wales were solemnized in religious ceremonies.

These findings can be extracted from the provisional marriage data for England and Wales in 2010, which were released by the Office for National Statistics on 29 February 2012 in the form of a statistical bulletin and accompanying spreadsheets (tables 1 and 4 being most relevant for our purposes). These are available at:

http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/vsob1/marriages-in-england-and-wales–provisional-/2010/marriages-in-england-and-wales–2010.html

While the declining popularity of religious ceremonies doubtless reflects the overall weakening of faith which is evident from a wide range of religious performance measures, it is probably also partly attributable to the introduction in 1995 of ceremonies in approved premises (such as historic buildings and hotels). These have provided an alternative ‘traditional’ ambience to that offered by places of worship, combined with superior on-site catering for the reception. For the sixth consecutive year, there were fewer religious ceremonies than those in approved premises.

Of the 76,770 religious ceremonies in 2010, 73.8% took place in the Church of England or Church in Wales, 11.0% in Roman Catholic churches, 11.6% in other Christian churches, and 3.6% in places of worship of non-Christian faiths. Anglican and Catholic marriage numbers increased absolutely between 2009 and 2010, but other Christian denominations and non-Christian faiths experienced falls.

82.1% of religious ceremonies in 2010 involved a first marriage for both partners, compared with 65.9% for all marriages, suggesting that divorcees disproportionately wed in register offices or approved premises, perhaps fearing the disapproval of local clergy. A further 11.7% of religious ceremonies involved a first marriage for one partner, with 6.3% representing a remarriage for both partners (against 15.1% of all marriages).

 

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ONS Opinions Survey Religion Module

Posted on January 24, 2012 by Clive D. Field

On 18 January 2012 the Economic and Social Data Service released for secondary analysis the dataset from the ‘ONS Opinions Survey, Census Religion Module, April, May, June and July, 2009’. This is available, under special licence access to approved UK researchers (accredited by the UK Statistics Authority), as SN 6938. For further information, see:

http://www.esds.ac.uk/findingData/snDescription.asp?sn=6938

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) Opinions Survey (OPN), previously known as the ONS Omnibus Survey, is a regular, multi-purpose study carried out by the ONS Social Survey Division. It started operating commercially in 1990 and was conducted for eight months of the year until April 2005 and monthly thereafter.

A census religion module (MCG/MCGb) was included in the OPN for April-July 2009 inclusive, as part of the final testing of question-wording for the 2011 population census. Citizenship was also covered in the same module (in April and May). A total of 4,235 Britons aged 16 and over living in private households were interviewed face-to-face.

The question which was tested on religion is one which is not often used in sample surveys. ‘Which of these best describes you?’ was followed by eight reply options: Christian, Buddhist, Hindu, Jewish, Muslim, Sikh, any other religion (specify), and no religion. In the May and July 2009 surveys no religion was made the first option, ahead of Christian. Any spontaneous comments made by the respondent to the question were also captured by the interviewer.

As well as through the OPN, ‘Which of these best describes you?’ was evaluated through: a postal test in England in March 2009 (with no religion given as the first option), cognitive testing, and engagement with key stakeholders. For comparative purposes, another question – ‘What is your religion, even if not currently practising?’ – was included in the core questionnaire for the April-July 2009 OPN.

In the end, ONS decided against using ‘Which of these best describes you?’ in the 2011 census and in favour of ‘What is your religion?’ – which many commentators regard as potentially leading. The ONS rationale for doing so is set out in the October 2009 report Final Recommended Questions for the 2011 Census in England and Wales: Religion, which is available through the Government web archive at:

http://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/20110109084035/http://www.ons.gov.uk/census/2011-census/2011-census-questionnaire-content/question-and-content-recommendations-for-2011/index.html

In Annex A of this document ONS tabulated the results from the core and module questions on religion in the April-July 2009 OPN. ‘Which of these best describes you?’ was found to increase the proportion professing no religion compared with ‘What is your religion, even if not currently practising?’ But the difference was especially noticeable in May and July, when no religion headed the list of options. In this instance, perhaps it was the running order of options more than the question-wording per se which most affected the results.

So, these April-July 2009 OPN data do not simply have historical significance. They remain important methodologically in demonstrating how variations in questionnaire design can impact upon the statistics generated by enquiries into religious affiliation. Doubtless, the first results from the religion question in the 2011 census, when they come, will reignite the debate about what is the ‘right’ way to formulate this question.

 

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UK Giving, 2011

Posted on December 4, 2011 by Clive D. Field

The number of UK adults donating money to religious causes (including places of worship) on a monthly basis in 2010/11 was 3,800,000, according to a report on UK Giving, 2011 published on 2 December 2011 by the Charities Aid Foundation and the National Council for Voluntary Organisations (NCVO). See their joint press release at:

https://www.cafonline.org/media-office/press-releases/2011/dec-2011/over-a-million-more.aspx
Continue reading →

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Beyond 2011

Posted on October 23, 2011 by Clive D. Field

The Office for National Statistics launched a public consultation on 17 October 2011 for its ‘Beyond 2011’ programme, which is to examine options for producing detailed information about small areas and neighbourhoods that has traditionally been a core output from the decennial population census.

It is said that the programme ‘will consider a range of alternative methods, including established census methods or reusing information that has already been collected from the public. A system that makes use of data already collected may deliver a more cost-effective way of providing more frequent statistics, with reduced public burden.’

The public consultation, which is the first stage of a four-step process, will run until 20 January 2012. Responses can be submitted online, by email or by post. The consultation extends to England and Wales only, since there are parallel exercises for Scotland and Northern Ireland. The document is available at:

http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/about-ons/consultations/open-consultations/beyond-2011—public-consultation/index.html

The consultation questionnaire covers three main areas:

  • What are users’ current requirements for data, and how are these requirements likely to change? How will they be impacted if the data were not to be collected by Government? 
  • What alternative data sources might be able to provide the required information? 
  • How should Government balance the potentially conflicting priorities of frequency, accuracy and geography in data collection?

Religion is expressly listed as a data topic, and there is thus an opportunity to answer each of the sections of the questionnaire with religion in mind. Hopefully, BRIN users will wish to respond. A consultation on the content of the 2011 census, which ran between May and August 2005, identified data on religion as a high user requirement.

The second stage of the ‘Beyond 2011’ process (February 2012 to mid-2013) will research and assess all available options, to see which best meets the needs identified. The third stage will be a further public consultation in summer 2013, focusing on possible solutions. The final stage (mid-2013 and early 2014) will develop the final recommendations.

Meanwhile, the initial, high-level outputs from the 2011 census for England and Wales are due for release in July 2012.

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Integrated Household Survey, 2010-11

Posted on September 29, 2011 by Clive D. Field

The Integrated Household Survey (IHS) is the biggest pool of UK social data after the decennial population census, so there will be special interest in the statistical bulletin containing headline results for the period April 2010 to March 2011, published by the Office for National Statistics on 28 September at:

http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/dcp171778_227150.pdf

The question on religious affiliation (‘What is your religion, even if you are not currently practising?’) was answered by 413,832 individuals (including under-16s) in Great Britain. Different question-wording was used in Northern Ireland, and results from that province are not reported in the bulletin.

In Great Britain as a whole 23.2% professed no religion, with 68.5% being Christian, 4.4% Muslim, 1.3% Hindu, 0.7% Sikh, 0.4% Jewish, 0.4% Buddhist, and 1.1% subscribing to other religions.

The proportion with no religion was lowest in England (22.4%) and highest in Wales (30.6%), with 27.2% in Scotland. Scotland had the most Christians (69.6%) and Wales – historically synonymous with Nonconformity – the fewest (66.1%).

All the non-Christian faiths were relatively stronger in England than in the other two home nations, and this was particularly true of Jews, Muslims, and Sikhs. For example, Muslims represented 4.9% of people in England, 1.2% in Wales, and 1.3% in Scotland.

There was an above-average number of persons with no religion among all the under-50 age cohorts. This was notably so for the 16-24s (31.6%) and the 25-34s (32.5%). For the over-65s the figure was only 8.4%. It was also among the over-65s that the proportion of Christians peaked (87.6%).

By contrast, Muslims had a very youthful profile, accounting for 7.9% of all under-16s, 5.5% of 16-24s, and 6.4% of 25-34s. Even assuming standard rates of fertility, this concentration presages an above-the-norm growth in the Muslim population of Britain over the next decade.

The principal changes since the 2009-10 IHS have been an increase of 2.7% in the number professing no religion and a decrease of 2.9% for Christians. Muslims were up 0.2%. BRIN covered the 2009-10 data at:

http://www.brin.ac.uk/news/?p=603

As discussed in the present author’s forthcoming essay on ‘Repurposing Religious Surveys’, there are several ways of enquiring into religious affiliation, each producing different results.

This explains the big discrepancy in the size of the no religion category between the ‘What is your religion?’ formulation employed in the census and IHS and the British Social Attitudes (BSA) Surveys’ approach of ‘Do you regard yourself as belonging to any particular religion?’, the one assuming and the other ‘discouraging’ a faith identity.

In the latest BSA to be published, for 2009, and for the first time in the history of BSA back to 1983, a slim majority of respondents said they had no religion, as already noted by BRIN at:

http://www.brin.ac.uk/news/?p=891

Thus, the accuracy and meaning of the 2010-11 IHS statistics of religious affiliation are likely to be the subject of some debate. They seem bound to be deployed or controverted to support opposing views on the place of religion in modern society.

Already, in its article on the IHS, the Daily Mail has claimed it demonstrates ‘the nation remains overwhelmingly Christian … days after it emerged that BBC programme-makers have been put under pressure to stop describing dates as BC or AD.’ See:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2043045/Modern-Britain-70-claim-Christians-1-5-gay.html

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Telling the Story of the 2001 Religious Census

Posted on June 6, 2011 by Clive D. Field

Much has been written about the results of the religion question in the 2001 census of population of Great Britain, but rather less is known about how that question came to be asked in the first place. This followed a four-year campaign (1996-2000) by a consortium of faith communities to get it included on the census schedule in the face of a Government which deemed it a low priority and baulked at the prospect of having to change primary legislation in order to be able to ask about religious affiliation.

It is, therefore, good to see a new ‘micro-history’ of the campaign from the perspective of one of its participants, Jamil Sherif, who was one of the Muslim representatives on the Religious Affiliation Sub-Group and the successor 2001 Census Religious Affiliation Group, speaking on behalf of the UK Action Committee on Islamic Affairs and, after its formation in 1997, the Muslim Council of Britain (MCB), whose Research and Documentation Committee Dr Sherif chaired.

Dr Sherif’s account and reminiscences appear in ‘A Census Chronicle: Reflections on the Campaign for a Religion Question in the 2001 Census for England and Wales’, Journal of Beliefs & Values, Vol. 32, 2011, pp. 1-18. In this article he draws upon both published and unpublished sources, including the MCB’s own archives and contemporary documents obtained from the Office of National Statistics (ONS) under the Freedom of Information Act.

Journal of Beliefs & Values is a commercial periodical, so access to its content is available only to personal and institutional subscribers or on a pay-per-view basis. However, an abstract of the article is freely accessible at:

http://www.informaworld.com/smpp/content~db=all~content=a937248078~frm=abslink

The Religious Affiliation Sub-Group and 2001 Census Religious Affiliation Group were chaired by Professor Leslie Francis, now of the University of Warwick, who has published his own recollections of the campaign in ‘Religion and Social Capital: The Flaw in the 2001 Census in England and Wales’, Public Faith? The State of Religious Belief and Practice in Britain, ed. Paul Avis, London: SPCK, 2003, pp. 45-64.

One of the main players for ONS was John Dixie, Census Coverage Survey Manager. As a civil servant, there is naturally little from him on the public record about the religion question, the main exception being his ‘The Ethnic and Religious Questions for 2001: Research and Responses’, Patterns of Prejudice, Vol. 32, 1998, pp. 5-14.

Although the 2001 census was the first to include a question on religious affiliation in mainland Britain (the question was asked in Ireland from 1861), it was not the first occasion an attempt had been made to pose it. Indeed, in connection with every census bill from 1860 to the eve of the First World War there was a debate in Parliament about the desirability of asking about religious affiliation.

These debates got caught up in acrimonious disputes between the Church of England and the Nonconformists, particularly efforts by elements of the latter to disestablish the former. Anglicans wanted a census of religious profession, primarily because it had the potential to put them in the best statistical light. Nonconformists resisted this and urged a census of church attendance, as in 1851, thinking it would give them greater quantitative profile. Most Governments just wanted to steer clear of controversy by avoiding a question on religion in any form.

One of the fiercest disputes over the projected religious affiliation question came in 1910, when there was almost a major constitutional crisis between the House of Commons and House of Lords over the issue, which had come to the fore because of the campaign, then at its height, for disestablishment of the Church in Wales. The Lords twice passed an amendment to include the question in the census and only backed down at the eleventh hour.

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Marriages in England and Wales in 2009

Posted on April 6, 2011 by Clive D. Field

The Office for National Statistics published a statistical bulletin on 30 March setting out the provisional figures for marriages which took place in England and Wales during 2009. Final data will not be available until the spring of 2012.

The provisional statistics reveal a continuation of existing trends, with a decline in both the total number of marriages (the 2009 figure was the lowest since 1895, when the population was considerably less) and the proportion of them conducted according to religious rites.

Civil ceremonies accounted for 67% of all marriages in 2009, compared with 62% ten years previously. They first exceeded religious ceremonies in 1992. The growing proportion has been driven by the increased number of weddings in approved premises (such as hotels and historic buildings) since those premises were first licensed in 1995.

The actual provisional number of religious ceremonies in 2009 was 75,630, 4% down on 2008, and 33% of all marriages. Religious marriages have declined by one-quarter since 1999, twice the rate of decrease in the overall total for marriages.

For the fifth consecutive year there were fewer religious ceremonies than weddings in approved premises, suggesting that historic secular buildings are often displacing historic churches as preferred venues.

These headlines from the statistical bulletin are supplemented by Table 4 in an accompanying Excel file of summary marriage statistics for 2009. This contains absolute numbers and percentages for civil and religious marriages in 1981, 1991, 1999, 2001, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008 and 2009.

These statistics are further disaggregated according to whether it was the first marriage for both parties, the first marriage for one party or a remarriage for both parties. This breakdown reveals that 82% of religious marriages in 2009 involved a first marriage for both parties.

There were only 4,940 religious ceremonies involving a remarriage for both parties in 2009, just 13% of all weddings in this category, probably implying that divorced persons largely opt for civil ceremonies.

Both the statistical bulletin and the Excel file can be accessed at:  

http://www.statistics.gov.uk/statbase/Product.asp?vlnk=14275

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Census Question Under Fire

Posted on March 21, 2011 by Clive D. Field

There are just six days to go before UK residents have to complete the household and individual questionnaire for the decennial population census.

But humanists are still simultaneously maintaining their attack on the voluntary question on religion while paradoxically encouraging people to answer it, ideally (from the humanist perspective) by registering as of no religion.

In a press release on 20 March the British Humanist Association (BHA) described the census question as ‘highly misleading’ and ‘fatally flawed for its intended purpose of planning public services’. The BHA’s evidence for this claim comes from new opinion polls conducted online by YouGov in England and Wales and in Scotland.

The English and Welsh survey, commissioned by the BHA, was undertaken on 9-11 March 2011 among a representative sample of 1,896 adults aged 18 and over. The Scottish poll was sponsored by the Humanist Society of Scotland and conducted on 10-14 January 2011 among 2,007 adults.

In England and Wales, when asked the census question ‘What is your religion?’, 61% ticked a religious box and 39% declared themselves to be of no religion. However, when asked ‘Are you religious?’, just 29% said ‘yes’ and 65% ‘no’, ‘meaning over half of those whom the census would count as having a religion said they were not religious’.

Responses varied somewhat according to demographics, most notably by age. Whereas 56% of 18-24s had no religion, the proportion fell steadily throughout the age cohorts, to stand at 25% among the over-55s. Similarly, while 70-73% of the three under-45 cohorts stated that they were not religious, this was the case with 68% of those aged 45-54 and 56% of the over-55s.

Marital status also appeared to make a difference, although this pattern doubtless conceals an age-related effect. The number professing no religion was highest among the never married (53%) and those living as married (52%). It was substantially lower among those who were currently married or in a civil partnership (31%) or had formerly been, 27% among the separated or divorced and 25% with the widowed.

The 53% of the English and Welsh sample who professed to be Christian were additionally asked: ‘Do you believe that Jesus Christ was a real person who died and came back to life and was the son of God?’ Fewer than half (48%) said that they did so believe, with 27% disbelieving and 25% unsure, BHA’s unspoken point presumably being that many so-called Christians have rather a shallow or unconventional faith.

It is also a generally inactive faith, in terms of attendance at a place of worship for religious reasons. Only 15% of the entire sample claimed to have been within the past month, with a further 16% going within the past year, 43% more than a year ago and 20% never. The never category was largest among the 18-24s (28%), with 32% for full-time students.

In Scotland, one-half of the sample was asked the Scottish census question: ‘What religion, religious denomination or body do you belong to?’ In reply, 56% of Scots professed some affiliation (with write-in responses available) and 42% none.

The other Scottish half-sample was initially asked: ‘Are you religious?’ 35% said that they were and 56% that they were not, with 8% uncertain. Those who answered that they were religious or who did not know were then asked: ‘Which religion do you belong to?’ At this point, 22% said that they did not belong to any organized religion.

The BHA press release and links to the data tables for both England and Wales and Scotland will be found at:

http://www.humanism.org.uk/news/view/771

These statistics serve to illustrate what is already generally well-known, that surveys on religious (and – indeed – all other) topics are inevitably informed or perhaps even shaped by question-wording.

The Office for National Statistics, which is overseeing the census, is fully aware of the sensitivities and ambiguities of investigating religion. It has gone to some considerable lengths to research and trial the merits of alternative wordings during its census preparations.

For fuller information about these deliberations and experimentation, see the October 2009 ONS report on Final Recommended Questions for the 2011 Census in England and Wales: Religion, which is available on the ONS website.

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