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2011 Census – Searching for Explanations

Posted on December 22, 2012 by Clive D. Field

The general direction of travel revealed by the 2011 census results for religion in England and Wales, published on 11 December 2012, in relation to those for 2001 (when the question was first asked) came as no surprise.

However, many commentators have been surprised by the speed of change over the past decade, not least in terms of the reduction in the number of professing Christians and the increase in those declaring no religion.

The headline figures for England and Wales are summarized in the table below:

England and Wales	2001	2011	Net change	% change
No religion	7709267	14097229	+ 6387962	+ 82.9
Christian	37338486	33243175	– 4095311	– 11.0
Buddhist	144453	247743	+ 103290	+ 71.5
Hindu	552421	816633	+ 264212	+ 47.8
Jewish	259927	263346	+ 3419	+ 1.3
Muslim	1546626	2706066	+ 1159440	+ 75.0
Sikh	329358	423158	+ 93800	+ 28.5
Any other religion	150720	240530	+ 89810	+ 59.6
Religion not stated	4010658	4038032	+ 27374	+ 0.7
Total	52041916	56075912	+ 4033996	+ 7.8

From this it will be seen that Christians were the only major religious group to have lost ground between the two censuses, in terms of absolute numbers. All other main groups expanded and, apart from the Jews, did so at a much faster rate than the growth in population. The ‘nones’ increased most of all, more than ten times greater than the population as a whole and even faster than the Muslims.

We are not yet in possession of cross-tabulations of the religion data, especially by demographics, and will have to wait well into next year for them to become available. In particular, these will be key to understanding regional and local, as well as national, variations.

Nevertheless, given the scale of Christian ‘losses’ and of ‘gains’ by the ‘nones’, it is not too early to start seeking explanations and to begin to map out an agenda for future research into the 2011 religion census which might begin to suggest explanations.

This post, therefore, is a preliminary attempt to identify some of the factors which would appear to merit further consideration, to assess how they may have impacted upon the responses which were given to the religion question.

Under coverage of the census

As with all censuses, the 2011 census did not initially reach 100% of English and Welsh residents through completion of the household schedule. This will have arisen through gaps in administrative knowledge and some measure of non-compliance. Therefore, the final population figure incorporates a degree of estimation. In the first statistical bulletin to contain headline results from the census, issued on 16 July 2012, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) explained:

‘The 2011 Census achieved its overall target response rate of 94 per cent of the usually resident population of England and Wales, and over 80 per cent in all local and unitary authorities … A good response was achieved to the 2011 Census but inevitably some people were missed. The issue of under coverage in a census is one that affects census takers everywhere and ONS designed methods and processes to address this. A Census Coverage Survey was carried out to measure under coverage in a sample of areas and, based on this and rigorous estimation methods, the census population estimates represent 100 per cent of the usually resident population in all areas. The estimation methods were subject to an independent peer review … All census estimates were quality assured extensively, using other national and local sources of information for comparison and review by a series of quality assurance panels. An extensive range of quality assurance, evaluation and methodology papers are being published alongside this release.’

Non-response to the religion question

Over and above the issue of ‘under coverage’, noted above, the religion question was affected by additional non-response. This arose from the fact that it was the only voluntary question to be asked in the whole census, being clearly marked as such, in reflection of the sensitivities which continue to exist around ‘the state’ investigating a topic which is often regarded as a personal and private matter.

In the event, only 7.2% chose not to answer the religion question, 0.5% fewer than in 2001 (albeit the absolute number was up). The slightly improved relative response may have reflected the efforts of ONS and faith communities to explain the rationale of the religion question among ethnic minorities. At present, we have no accurate means of knowing whether the religious profile of the ‘religion not stated’ category matched that of the 92.8% who did state their religion, or whether it was skewed in some way. A post-census survey which enquired into people’s motivations for declining to state their religion might have explicitly or implicitly shed some light on their hidden religious profession, but it is doubtless too late now to contemplate such a study. Meanwhile, it might be potentially misleading to reallocate this 7.2% as though they did match the 92.8%. It would naturally be very dangerous to assume that ‘religion not stated’ can be equated with ‘no religion’. But the fact that the number of ‘religion not stated’ was broadly similar at the two censuses perhaps enables us to discount it as a driver or explanation of religious change.

Question-wording

Previous research has indicated that variations in question-wording can produce significantly different results, and this is especially true of investigations into religion. There are several formulations which have been used to assess religious identity over the years, and these have often produced a wide gap between maxima and minima, not least for numbers of Christians and those professing no religion.

But it seems unlikely that question-wording can explain much of the change in the religious landscape of England and Wales evident from a comparison of the 2001 and 2011 censuses. The core question was unchanged: ‘What is your religion?’ While the question is viewed by some as imperfect, in implying that a religious identity is expected, this factor would only be relevant if there was a greater degree of such expectation in the minds of respondents in 2001 than there was in 2011. Given other religious changes during the decade, it might be possible to suggest that the ‘prestige’ effect of religion had lessened, and that some individuals felt it less necessary to declare a faith in 2011 than in 2001. However, other questions, such as frequency of attendance at religious services, still seem to engage the ‘prestige’ effect, leading to aspirational if not exaggerated answers.

Not only was the core question on religion the same, but the reply options were identical, with one variation. In 2001 ‘none’ was used and in 2011 ‘no religion’. ONS explained that this change was ‘for clarity’ and consistency with other questions. It would be possible to run a test, for example using a split sample, to see whether ‘no religion’ produces more affirmative replies than ‘none’, and thus whether the adoption of the code ‘no religion’ contributed in any way to the growth in the number selecting that option. Instinctively, however, this does not seem a plausible explanation for the growth in ‘nones’, certainly not in any large measure.

The running order of the reply options was likewise unaltered: no religion, Christian, Buddhist, Hindu, Jewish, Muslim, Sikh, any other religion. In the case of any other religion, the instruction in 2001 was ‘please write in’, in 2011 the more peremptory ‘write in’.

Reallocation of write-in replies

The write-in option was designed to be used, both in 2001 and 2011, by those who ticked the ‘any other religion’ box. In practice, some ticked the box but wrote nothing alongside (as yet an unknown number in 2011, but 19,000 in 2001). Others used the write-in option to qualify an answer which ONS judged would better fit another category, particularly Christian or no religion.

In fact, in 2001 only 17.2% of the 878,000 write-ins for any other religion were actually ultimately credited to any other religion. A further 33.3% were a Christian denomination and reassigned by ONS to the Christian category and 49.6% were judged by ONS to sit within the no religion rather than any other religion category, by far the biggest element being 390,000 Jedi Knights.

For 2011 ONS has not yet divulged how many write-ins were reclassified as Christians, but it has revealed that 260,000 were reassigned from any other religion to no religion, of whom the Jedi Knights, at 177,000, were still the single biggest component, albeit a shadow of their 2001 selves. Others moved to no religion included 32,000 agnostics, 29,000 atheists, and 15,000 humanists.

All in all, it seems unlikely that the processing by ONS of write-ins will have materially affected the results of the 2011 census or help to explain the major changes which have taken place since the 2001 census. There may have been some minor alterations in coding and treatment, but these will have had little impact on the big picture; these have been explored further in the recent post by David Voas about write-ins at:

http://www.brin.ac.uk/news/2012/census-2011-any-other-religion/

Head of household factor

Unlike in most sample surveys, the replies to questions in a census may not be given by the individual concerned but by proxy. The census is based on a household schedule, which will generally be completed by the head of the household or an equivalent senior figure. It is therefore possible that, in answering the question on religion, the head of household may impute to other members of the household his/her own religious views or record what he/she believes to be their affiliation but without ever asking them outright.

In their article on the 2001 religion census, published in Journal of Contemporary Religion (Vol. 19, 2004, pp. 23-8), David Voas and Steve Bruce hypothesized that as heads of households ‘are likely to be older than other members and religious affiliation is strongly correlated with age, one might thus expect the census figures to be biased upwards’. This might have accounted, in part, for the 72% of the population professing Christianity in 2001, which was the phenomenon that Voas and Bruce were concerned to explain at that time.

In fact, their brief analysis of the religion data from 2001 for both heads of households and all adults in the household did not suggest any striking differences between the two groups. One of the variations, albeit small, was that heads of households were 0.5% more likely to subscribe to no religion than adults as a whole. This will almost certainly have reflected the fact that heads of households were disproportionately men, and that males tend to declare no religion more than women.

Nevertheless, this head of household factor should not be lightly discounted. It could in principle be tested through a sample survey which asked heads of households to give the religious affiliation of household members while simultaneously asking the question directly of household members themselves. Given that men are disproportionately heads of households and disproportionately of no religion (one-fifth more likely than women in a 64,000 person survey by YouGov in 2011), there is at least a potential (if small) explanation for the big increase in ‘nones’ between the 2001 and 2011 censuses.

Cohort replacement effects

It is unnecessary to say much here about the importance of cohort replacement effects since they have already been explored in some detail by David Voas in his recent post at:

http://www.brin.ac.uk/news/2012/religious-census-2011-what-happened-to-the-christians/

Suffice it to say that sample surveys, such as the British Social Attitudes Surveys, have mostly tended to show that religious affiliation is fairly stable across a person’s lifetime but declines over time in the country as a whole as a result of the death of older cohorts with a strong religious (especially Christian) identification and their replacement by young people with much lower levels of religious allegiance.

However, the scale of the fall in the Christian population between 2001 and 2011 is far more than can be explained by cohort replacement alone. According to the modelling undertaken by Voas in his post, based upon deaths during the decade, he projects that the number of Christians would only have fallen by 1.5 million, or from 72% to 69% of the population, as a direct consequence of cohort replacement.

Disaffiliation

We therefore have to face up to the possibility that a lot of people who gave their religion as Christian in 2001 recorded themselves as of no religion in 2011.

A superficially attractive explanation for this might be sought in the British Humanist Association (BHA)’s Census Campaign, under the somewhat tongue-in-cheek slogan of ‘If you’re not religious, for God’s sake say so’. Is it possible that this campaign tipped the balance by persuading many to abandon their ‘cultural Christianity’ and to embrace no faith? At present, thinking in the BRIN team is that this was probably a highly marginal influence, for the following reasons:

The campaign was launched as early as 27 October 2010, and it is very hard to maintain momentum for such an initiative over such a long period as five months (census day was 27 March 2011)
The BHA is a fairly small organization in terms of its paid-up membership and immediate circle of influence, and it therefore had to rely upon advertising, publicity in the commercial media, and social media (such as Facebook and Twitter) in order to reach the general public
The BHA never succeeded in realizing its advertising fund-raising target for the campaign
The BHA was informed that its slogan was likely to cause widespread and serious offence and had to be modified for advertising purposes (a previous BHA campaign in 2009, under the banner of ‘There is probably no god, now stop worrying and enjoy your life’, had already proved controversial)
Companies owning advertising space in railway stations refused to display three different BHA census posters, thereby depriving BHA of a major promotional opportunity
BHA census posters on 200 buses in London and six other cities had to be rephrased to read (less strikingly): ‘Not religious? In this year’s census, say so’
To the best of our knowledge, the BHA has published no independent market research to testify to the visibility and impact of the campaign
The only other major new religion-related census campaign in 2011, to promote Heavy Metal as a religion, was a singular flop, attracting a mere 6,242 write-ins

Therefore, defection or disaffiliation of Christians since 2001 is a probable major cause of the decline of Christian allegiance over the decade. Even though it is not the complete answer (after all, the net decline in Christians constitutes no more than 64.1% of the net growth of ‘nones’), it should undoubtedly be a primary focus of research effort. Notwithstanding the census in England and Wales did not distinguish between different types of Christians (it only did so in Scotland and Northern Ireland), such research needs to be undertaken at a denominational level and should particularly concentrate on affiliation to the Church of England, which has long been known to be the weakest and most nominal of all religious groups. Besides, we know from sample survey evidence that affiliation to the Roman Catholic Church has remained relatively stable and that, while support for the historic Free Churches (such as the Methodists and United Reform) has waned, there has been balancing growth at the Pentecostal and charismatic end of the spectrum, especially of black minority churches, which represent a new form of ‘Free Churchism’.

The Church of England undoubtedly seems to be in a fairly bad way in terms of the decline of popular identification with it. Fifty years ago, in 1963, when Gallup asked the question ‘what is your religious denomination?’ of 20 samples aggregating to more than 21,000 adults in Great Britain, 61% replied Church of England (presumably including its sister Churches in Wales and Scotland). By 2011, when YouGov asked 64,000 adult Britons ‘what is your religion?’ (the identical question to the census), professing Anglicans had reduced to 31%, although 43% had been brought up as an Anglican as a child.

The rites of passage, another bulwark of residual Anglicanism, tell a similar story. Back in 1900 Anglican baptisms represented 65% of live births, but by 2000 this was down to 20% and by 2010 to 12%. In 1900 the Church of England conducted 65% of all marriages, but only 24% in 2000 and 2010. Even funerals, over which the Churches in general and the Church of England in particular held a near monopoly until well after the Second World War, have seen a collapse. In 2000 46% of deaths were still followed by an Anglican funeral, but only 37% in 2010.

It is not enough for Anglican apologists to counter these facts, as they often do, by reference to pockets of growth in the Church of England (Fresh Expressions and cathedrals are most often cited). Growth and decline have coexisted in organized religion for a very long time, so green shoots in some places do not contradict the overall downward trajectory in Anglican fortunes. In statistical terms, the Church of England can no longer count even on the nominal support of the majority of the nation.

So, if large-scale disaffiliation of Christians has occurred between the 2001 and 2011 censuses, it is probably in the Church of England that it needs to be sought. The motivations for it also require to be explored, in particular, the extent to which defections are a manifestation of growing dissatisfaction with the Church and thus a kind of ‘protest vote’. Three opinion polls in 2012 (by YouGov in January and November and ComRes in July) have shown that a clear majority of the nation feels that the Church of England is out-of-touch with modern society, 76% saying so in the most recent survey, following the General Synod’s rejection of women bishops. Indeed, at a time of growing liberalism in public attitudes to diversity issues, the Church’s continuing difficulties over sexuality and gender do present it with something of a public relations mountain to climb.

International migrants

One of the key demographic changes to have occurred between the 2001 and 2011 censuses was the dramatic increase in the number of international migrants, people born outside the UK but who were usually resident in England and Wales at the time of the census. In 2001 there had been 4.6 million answering this description (8.8% of the population); by 2011 there were 7.5 million (13.4%, roughly one-third from the European Union and two-thirds from the rest of the world). Of these 7.5 million, over half (3.8 million) had arrived in the UK between 2001 and 2011. Regionally, the number of residents born outside the UK was highest in London (36.7%). Summary details are provided in the ONS statistical bulletin on International Migrants in England and Wales, 2011, published on 11 December 2012 and available at:

http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/dcp171776_290335.pdf

It is naturally important to understand how immigration may or may not have affected the religious landscape of England and Wales. At present, we have no cross-tabulations from the census for religion by country of birth, although such data should become available in due course and will provide conclusive proof of the relationship between the two variables. All that can be done for the moment is to look at the religious profile of the countries from which these migrants have come and assume that the religion of the migrants broadly matches that national religious profile.

To take a very crude example, the top ten countries for non-UK born residents in England and Wales at the 2011 census are set out below, together with an indication of the religious profile of those countries (the latter information being taken from the very recent report on The Global Religious Landscape by the Pew Research Center).

Country	Nationals resident in England and Wales in 2011	Dominant religious group(s) of country
India	694000	Hindu 79.5%
Poland	579000	Christian 94.3%
Pakistan	482000	Muslim 96.4%
Republic of Ireland	407000	Christian 92.0%
Germany	274000	Christian 68.7%
Bangladesh	212000	Muslim 89.8%
Nigeria	191000	Christian 49.3%, Muslim 48.8%
South Africa	191000	Christian 81.2%
United States	177000	Christian 78.3%
Jamaica	160000	Christian 77.2%

The superficial inferences we can draw from this table are that immigration a) may have contributed to the growth of the non-Christian population of England and Wales between 2001 and 2011 but b) seems unlikely to explain the big increase in the number professing no religion. In these ten countries the proportion with no religious affiliation was highest in Germany (24.7%), followed by Jamaica (17.2%), the United States (16.4%), and South Africa(14.9%); it fell to less than 0.1% in Bangladesh, India, and Pakistan. Moreover, the collapse in the proportion of Christians might almost certainly have been worse but for international migrants, who often came from countries where Christianity was the dominant faith. For example, there was a ninefold growth in the number of Poles (who are preponderantly Catholic) resident in England and Wales between 2001 and 2011, following Poland’s accession to the European Union in 2004.

Natural growth

Natural growth is probably irrelevant as an explanation for the increase in the ‘nones’ but almost certainly accounts for much of the rise in the non-Christian population between 2001 and 2011, especially of Muslims. The 2001 census had demonstrated that Muslims had the youngest age profile of all religious groups, as well as the largest households. A similar picture is eventually likely to be revealed by the 2011 census and merits detailed investigation once the data are available to do so. Meanwhile, other evidence also testifies to the fact that Muslims are disproportionately young (and thus more likely than average to be in the child-rearing phase) and inclined to have more children than the norm. The phenomenon is explored on a global basis by Eric Kaufmann in his book Shall the Religious Inherit the Earth? (Profile Books, 2010), which suggests that a fecundity-driven growth of ‘fundamentalist populations’ (Christian, Jewish or Muslim) will reverse the march of secularism before 2050.

Needless to say, all the foregoing are very much preliminary observations and subject to revision in the light of further reflection and the availability of more data. At present, our ability to explore the 2011 census results for religion is very constrained by the limited amount of information released by ONS thus far.

Posted in Official data, Religious Census, Research note, Rites of Passage | Tagged British Humanist Association, census of population, Christians, Church of England, cohort replacement, David Voas, disaffiliation, Eric Kaufmann, head of household, international migrants, natural growth, non-response, nones, Office for National Statistics, Pew Research Center, question-wording, Religious Affiliation, rites of passage, Steve Bruce, under coverage, write-in replies | 1 Comment

BRIN’s Christmas Crackers

Posted on December 21, 2012 by Clive D. Field

Our jokes may be as bad, but hopefully our content is more informative than the average Christmas cracker’s! In this our last round-up of religious statistical news before Christmas, we feature eight stories which will hopefully be of interest to readers of this website. The whole BRIN team wishes you all an enjoyable festive season.

Global religious landscape

On 18 December 2012 the internationally respected Pew Research Center published The Global Religious Landscape: A Report on the Size and Distribution of the World’s Major Religious Groups as of 2010 as part of the Pew-Templeton Global Religious Futures Project. At the core of the document (pp. 45-50) is a table setting out the estimated religious composition of 232 countries and territories in 2010 broken down as percentages for eight groups: Christians, Muslims, religiously unaffiliated, Hindus, Buddhists, folk religionists, other religions, and Jews. This table has been compiled, in consultation with many experts, in accordance with a rigorous methodology (outlined on pp. 51-67) and utilizing the best available evidence for each country (pp. 68-80). The report can be read at:

http://www.pewforum.org/uploadedFiles/Topics/Religious_Affiliation/globalReligion-full.pdf

Three of these countries and territories are the Channel Islands, Isle of Man, and the United Kingdom. The figures for the first two are derived from the World Religion Database. Those for the UK are described (on p. 80) as ‘estimates based on 2010 Office for National Statistics Annual Population Survey and 2001 Census for Northern Ireland, adjusted for missing data and to account for underrepresented religious groups’. Unfortunately, Pew’s UK data are superficially hard to square with the findings of the 2011 religious census of England and Wales, published on 11 December, not least in seemingly overestimating the number of Christians (which Pew reckons to amount to 71.1% of the UK population) and somewhat underestimating the religiously unaffiliated (at 21.3%). Conrad Hackett, one of the two primary researchers behind the report (the other being Brian Grim) has kindly offered to share with BRIN readers some possible explanations for the apparent discrepancy between Pew’s calculations and the census. His post will appear on the BRIN site in due course.

Membership of religious groups

Hard on the heels of the release of the 2011 religious census results for England and Wales comes the publication (on 18 December 2012) of a very large opinion poll which collected information about another facet of religious identity. It was commissioned by Lord Michael Ashcroft (international businessman, author, and philanthropist) as part of his regular series of polls on political issues, this one focused on the United Kingdom Independence Party. The survey was conducted online between 9 and 19 November 2012 among a sample of 20,066 Britons aged 18 and over. The religion question asked was rather different to that in the census: ‘To which of the following religious groups do you consider yourself to be a member of?’ The concept of membership was not defined. This formulation is more analogous to, but certainly not identical with, the ‘belonging’ question in the annual British Social Attitudes Surveys.

In reply, 55% of Ashcroft’s interviewees said Christian, 6% non-Christian, and 36% none, with 2% refusals. The most substantial demographic variations were by age and voting intention. The proportion of Christians was lowest (36%) among the 18-24s and rose steadily throughout the age cohorts to stand at 73% with the over-65s. For those saying they were members of no religious groups, the trend was in the opposite direction, starting high at 50% for the 18-24s and falling to reach 22% of the over-65s. Conservatives were 14% more likely to be Christians than Labour voters and 15% more than Liberal Democrats; and they were 11% less likely than the other two main parties to have no religion. For more details, see table 88 of the data tables at:

http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/12/UKIP-poll-full-tables.pdf

Religion census in Wales

The Welsh Government published a statistical bulletin on 17 December 2012 setting out first results from the 2011 census for ethnicity, national identity, and religion for Wales. For those particularly interested in Welsh data, this summarizes in two simple tables the Welsh religious affiliation figures included in the Excel spreadsheets released for the whole of England and Wales on 11 December. Table 5 compares the religion results for 2011 with those in 2001 for the whole of Wales. The principal changes were the fall in the number of professing Christians, from 71.9% to 57.6%, and the increase in the proportion of those stating no religion, from 18.5% to 32.1%. Non-Christians were comparatively thin on the ground, only 2.7% (even if ‘any other religion’ is included), albeit Muslims rose from 0.7% to 1.5% of the Welsh population. Table 6 provides breakdowns for 2011 at local authority level. To read more, go to:

http://wales.gov.uk/docs/statistics/2012/121217sb1262012en.pdf

Andrew Brown on the census

From Andrew Brown’s weekly review of the press in Church Times, 14 December 2012, p. 24: ‘The Guardian had on its website a couple of really interesting little graphs showing the correlations between income and religious allegiance by local authority … “Nones” showed a fairly flat distribution across income areas. That strengthens the idea that they are now a kind of default state. Other religions, even Islam, showed up as growing more common with increasing prosperity. I think, though, that this is skewed by the fact that Bangladeshi immigrants were very suspicious of the religious question on the Census. But two groups really stood out. The poorest local authorities were also those likely to report high levels of Christian identification – which is hardly the pattern you would expect from church statistics. Buddhism shows just as clear a pattern as it grows, but in the opposite direction.’

Sharing the gospel

Evangelism is the theme of the latest (and seventh) report in the Evangelical Alliance’s 21st Century Evangelicals series, commissioned in partnership with eight other Christian organizations who are members of the Alliance’s Research Club. The research utilizes an online panel of evangelicals (‘an opportunity sample of self-selecting volunteers’), which is possibly unrepresentative of evangelical churchgoers as a whole. For this latest study, conducted in August 2012, 1,242 panel members participated. The summary of the findings, 21st Century Evangelicals: A Snapshot of the Beliefs and Habits of Evangelical Christians in the UK, Winter 2012 – Confidently Sharing the Gospel? is available at:

http://www.eauk.org/church/resources/snapshot/upload/Confidently-sharing-the-gospel-final-report.pdf

The research demonstrates that evangelicals come to faith at an early stage of their life – 72% before they are 20 years old (28% by the age of 11 and 44% in their teens). Girls (32%) are more likely than boys (24%) to commit to Christ by the time they are 11. Growing up in a Christian family or church environment (54%) and the influence of Christian friends who shared their faith (43%) are the most common routes to faith, with nine other factors scoring between 6% and 37%. Evangelicals are very solid in their convictions, 97% agreeing that Jesus is the only way to God, and 94% that everyone needs to be born again to become a Christian and be saved.

Notwithstanding, evangelicals do not necessarily embrace practical evangelism. They often stay within their religious comfort zone, 74% saying that all or most of their family or household members are Christians and 51% the same about their circle of friends; 43% accept that they do not come into contact with many non-Christians. Many (39%) lack the motivation to share their faith, 48% feel too scared to do so, and 60% acknowledge that they have missed an opportunity to speak to others about God during the past four months. These are acknowledged to be generic weaknesses, 87% recognizing that most Christians want the confidence to give testimony to their faith, and 76% that Christians do not pray enough for revival.

Of course, there are barriers on the other side, too, with 74% declaring that none of their non-Christian contacts seem interested in talking about spiritual things. The major hindrances to the advancement of faith among non-Christians are perceived by evangelicals to be: secular alternatives to Sunday worship (89%), the Church’s unattractive public image (87%), the Church’s middle class ethos (73%), an aversion to joining any kind of organization (68%), the Church’s narrow views on sex (62%), the inability of Christians to give meaningful answers to the problem of suffering (61%), popular knowledge of science (59%), and the attacks of atheists such as Richard Dawkins (51%).

Singing the gospel

Knowledge of the lyrics of traditional Christmas carols improves with age, according to a survey of 1,000 adult Britons commissioned by the online casino RoxyPalace. Whereas nobody aged 18-27 and only one-eighth of all under-37s feel they can ‘confidently sing’ every word to a well-known carol, four-fifths of pensioners aged 68-77 can accurately manage the task. Overall, more than one in ten is forced to mime or hum along to carols. Others simply invent the words they do not know, or substitute those which best seem to fit, such as ‘the cattle are mooing’ in Away in a Manger. The fullest report of this light-hearted seasonal research which has appeared to date can be found in the Daily Telegraph for 20 December 2012 at:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/topics/christmas/9757111/Oh-come-all-ye-faithful-learn-the-words-to-traditional-carols.html

Christmas cards without Christ

A mystery shopping survey carried out by Nielsen on behalf of the Bible Society on 3-7 December 2012 found that only 66 or 1.2% of 5,706 single and multipack Christmas card designs on sale in twelve shops in the Birmingham area (including branches of Tesco, Sainsbury, Asda, and Morrison) depicted the nativity, with the total only rising to 2% even when all other religious designs were added in. Commenting on the results, Ann Holt from the Bible Society feared that ‘this means the nativity story will gradually slip from our consciousness’. The Society’s press release of 20 December is at:

http://www.biblesociety.org.uk/news/survey-finds-just-over-1-per-cent-christmas-card-designs-in-shops-feature-scenes-from-the-nativity/

Meanwhile, the Society has now made available online the full data tables from the nativity awareness survey undertaken by ICM Research on 6-10 December 2012, which we covered in our post of 17 December. The tables can be found at:

http://www.biblesociety.org.uk/uploads/content/news/files/Nativity_survey_data_tables.pdf

BRIN developments

BRIN has now opened a Twitter account: Brit Rel in Numbers @BritRelNumbers. A plugin has also been added to the BRIN website so that all new posts on the BRIN news pages will automatically broadcast a tweet to alert our followers on Twitter to fresh content. You can follow us at:

https://twitter.com/BritRelNumbers

The annual update of the BRIN sources database has just taken place. Methodological and bibliographical details of 115 new sources have been added, 84 from 2012 and 31 from previous years. This brings the total of sources described in the database to 2,115, the earliest from 1603. Revisions have also been made to 31 existing entries, typically to incorporate new bibliographical references, while corrections have been made to the sample size count field (which is not visible to end users) for many sources keyed in 2010 in order to improve the accuracy of advanced searching by sample size, especially for large datasets. There are naturally many other search options available, so do try the database out for yourself, at:

http://www.brin.ac.uk/sources/

It is guaranteed to cost you less than shopping online on Christmas Day or Boxing Day!

Posted in News from religious organisations, Official data, Religion and Politics, Religion in the Press, Religious Census, Survey news | Tagged Andrew Brown, Bible Society, Brian Grim, census of population, Christmas cards, Christmas carols, Church Times, Conrad Hackett, Daily Telegraph, Evangelical Alliance, evangelicals, evangelism, Global Religious Landscape, ICM Research, Lord Ashcroft, membership of religious groups, Michael Ashcroft, nativity knowledge, Nielsen, Office for National Statistics, Pew Research Center, Pew-Templeton Global Religious Futures Project, Religious Affiliation, religious festivals, RoxyPalace, The Guardian, Twitter, Wales, Welsh Government | 2 Comments

Christmas and Other Themes

Posted on December 17, 2012 by Clive D. Field

Today’s ‘bumper’ round-up of religious statistical news features seven stories. Two are Christmas-themed; two summarize public attitudes to the religious dimensions of the same-sex marriage debate; two report on new research among Roman Catholics; and the last highlights reflections on the 2011 religion census of England and Wales by the Director of the AHRC/ESRC Religion and Society programme.

Churchgoing at Christmas

One-quarter of the national population claims they will attend a church service over the Christmas period this year (5% on Christmas Day itself, 11% on Christmas Eve, and 8% on another day around Christmas). The range is from 20% of men and residents of the Midlands and Wales to 30% of Londoners. Two-thirds say that they will not worship at Christmastide with one-tenth uncertain what they will do. Interestingly, when asked to indicate which of a list of Christmas Day activities they would pursue, an additional 2% (making 7% in all) mention going to church. Even so, apart from going to work (4%), this is the least favoured pastime on Christmas Day. Two-thirds anticipate singing Christmas carols over the festive period, women the most (51%) and men (31%) the least, closely followed by Scots on 32%. Among those with children under the age of ten, 45% expect them to take part in a nativity play, and 30% not. If past form is anything to go by, actual religious practices at Christmas will be significantly less than these aspirations.

Source: Online survey by YouGov for The Sun among 1,729 adults aged 18 and over in Great Britain on 9-10 December 2012. Data tables published on 14 December at:

http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/tmd6ug984b/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-101212-Christmas.pdf

Nativity knowledge

Britons’ knowledge of the nativity story is somewhat variable, according to a new survey. Asked ten specific questions about the first Christmas, on average they scored six out of ten, with 22% of parents and 18% of children scoring eight out of ten or more. The best-known facts about the nativity are that Jesus was born in Bethlehem (98%), Mary put the baby Jesus in a manger (89%), and that the Angel Gabriel told Mary she would give birth (83%). At the other end of the spectrum, only 14% knew that the three wise men travelled West following the star, 26% that Mary and Joseph were espoused (and thus not married) when she found out she was going to have a baby, and 32% knew that Immanuel means God is with us. A notable feature of the incorrect answers was the not infrequent appearance of Father Christmas, especially among parents’ responses. Over half of families (52%) said they planned to go to a school nativity play this year.

Source: Online survey by ICM Research on behalf of the Bible Society, undertaken between 6 and 12 December 2012 among approximately 1,000 parents of children aged 12 and under and 1,000 children. Full data tables are not yet available, but headline findings were reported on 17 December, notably in the online edition of the Daily Telegraph at:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/topics/christmas/9748554/Scandal-of-Mary-and-Joseph-passes-most-Britons-by-as-they-place-Father-Christmas-by-the-manger.html

The Bible Society’s press release is at:

http://www.biblesociety.org.uk/news/children-and-parents-6-out-of-10-score-on-nativity-knowledge/

Same-sex marriage (1)

Three-quarters of the British public (73%) are in favour of the legalization of same-sex marriages, but they divide over whether religious organizations should be required to provide religious weddings for gay couples. Some 28% of the population feels that these organizations should be put under such an obligation, and this is especially the view of the 18-24s (44%) and Liberal Democrat voters and public sector workers (37% each). Legalization of same-sex marriage but without requiring faith bodies to offer religious ceremonies is backed by 45%, while 17% oppose same-sex marriage but countenance civil partnerships, and a further 7% are hostile both to same-sex marriage and civil partnerships.

Source: Telephone survey of 1,023 adults aged 18 and over in Great Britain, undertaken by Ipsos MORI on 8-10 December 2012 on behalf of Freedom to Marry. Full data table published on 11 December and available at:

http://www.ipsos-mori.com/Assets/Docs/Polls/gay-marriage-poll-tables-december-2012.pdf

Same-sex marriage (2)

The British public is evenly divided about whether ‘marriage is a sacred act between a man and a woman and cannot be a sacred act between same-sex couples’; 42% say yes and exactly the same number no, albeit over-55s (56%) and Conservative voters (52%) are more inclined to take the former view and under-35s (52%) and Liberal Democrats (50%) the latter. This is notwithstanding that 60% (and 73% of under-35s) indicate that they support the legalization of same-sex marriage (in a question worded differently to that in the Ipsos MORI poll, above), albeit it is not generally regarded by the public as a priority for Parliament.

A majority (53%) backs same-sex marriages in churches, provided that churches are willing to conduct such ceremonies, rising to 63% of under-35s and 61% of Liberal Democrats; 39% are hostile, including 53% of over-55s, and 9% undecided. Only 35% endorse the Government’s proposal to prohibit the Church of England from conducting same-sex religious marriages, the majority (54%, including 60% of under-35s and the AB social group) wanting to see Anglican clergy offering such ceremonies if in accordance with their individual consciences. At the same time, 58% believe the Church of England is entitled to oppose the whole concept of same-sex marriage (with 26% disagreeing and 16% unsure).

Source: Online survey of 1,003 adults aged 18 and over in Great Britain, undertaken by Survation on behalf of The Mail on Sunday on 14 and 15 December 2012. Summarized in Simon Walters, ‘Britons Vote in Favour of Same-Sex Marriage’, The Mail on Sunday, 16 December 2012, p. 13, available at:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2248833/Britons-vote-favour-sex-marriage-Public-backs-PM-gay-marriage-says-hes-doing-trendy.html

Full data tables located at:

http://survation.com/2012/12/same-sex-marriage-public-opinion-political-fall-out-survation-for-the-mail-on-sunday/

Bible engagement

Roman Catholics have a relatively low level of engagement with the Bible, according to a new survey. Of those who attend Mass once a month or more, 57% do not read the Bible week-by-week outside of a church setting. This is despite the fact that around two-thirds of them contend that the Bible has something useful to contribute to contemporary life and society, and that one-third assert that a passage in the Bible directly influenced a decision they made in the past week. For Catholics who worship less frequently than monthly or not at all, 81% seldom or never read the Bible. Less than half of both groups of Catholics feel confident about describing five specific passages from the Bible, with familiarity greater among Catholics aged 18-34 than their older co-religionists.

These findings are consistent with a ‘meta analysis’ of over 150 British sample surveys relating to the Bible and undertaken since 1945, which the present writer has almost completed, one of whose findings is: ‘Protestants in general and Free Church affiliates in particular are more Bible-centric than Catholics (apart from some indicators of literalism)’. Indeed, the faith of Catholics seems to be as much underpinned by the teachings and authority of the Roman Catholic Church as by the foundational text of Christianity.

Source: Survey of 1,012 self-identifying Roman Catholics aged 18 and over undertaken by Christian Research between 17 November and 4 December 2012, and on behalf of the Bible Society, in partnership with the Home Mission Desk of the Catholic Bishops’ Conference of England and Wales. The sample divided between 502 Catholics who said that they attended Mass once a month or more and 510 who went less frequently or never. Headline findings are contained in a press release from the Bishops’ Conference dated 7 December, two days before Catholic Bible Sunday, and available at:

http://catholic-ew.org.uk/Home/News-Releases/Catholic-Bible-Engagement

Roman Missal

It is just over a year since Catholic parishes in English-speaking countries started to use the revised English translation of the Missale Romanum edition tertia, which aimed to offer a more literal rendition of the Latin, replacing the translation introduced after Vatican II, with its emphasis on capturing the sense of the words. However, initial responses to the new Missal among the faithful seem to have been decidedly mixed, according to one local survey. In it only 22% described the general experience of their parish with regard to the Missal as positive, with 31% neutral, and 42% negative. Factoring in their personal views brought the negative total to 45%, with 28% positive, and 25% neutral. This underwhelmed reaction is despite the fact that 83% claimed to have been at least somewhat prepared for the new translation, the most common forms of catechesis being at Mass (69%), the parish newsletter (50%), and from a priest or deacon (41%). Pew cards (71%) and parish leaflets (30%) were commonly made available as ‘people’s aids’ at Mass. Qualitative data were collected alongside the statistics, it being noted that ‘concerning the language of the people’s responses and prayers, a panoply of [negative] adjectives and descriptors that would be the envy of Roget’s Thesaurus is wheeled into line’.

Source: Survey conducted by the Roman Catholic Diocese of Portsmouth between 1 January and 30 April 2012. The survey form was posted on the diocesan website and was thus accessible to people from outside the diocese. Although the majority of the replies came from within the diocese, a significant number came from elsewhere (mainly Northern England). They were received, either in written form or as email attachments, from a self-selecting sample of both laity and clergy. ‘There is no indication of any particular group with an agenda “packing” or skewing the responses’. Even though statistics are cited to two decimal places, the number of respondents (307) is not specified until the very last page of Paul Inwood’s summary of the survey, which can be found at:

http://www.portsmouthdiocese.org.uk/userfiles/Diocesan%20Missal%20Survey%20analysis%20and%20narrative%20report.pdf

The weekly Catholic magazine The Tablet is currently running an online survey on the same subject. To participate, go to:

http://www.thetablet.co.uk/page/survey

Religious census

The religious life of the country is more diverse and complex than a superficial reading of the 2011 census data for England and Wales might suggest, according to the latest commentary on the initial results which were released a week ago. In particular, there is no hard-and-fast fault-line between ‘Christians’ and those professing ‘no religion’. ‘The census is a poor guide because it asks a single question about identity and offers a limited range of answers … The census still works with simple, unitary categories of religion. If forced, most of us can squeeze ourselves into one of these boxes. But if asked what we really mean, we display a heterogeneity which simplistic readings of the census ignore … Most people no longer identify with the labels of religious affiliation … Religion, like secularity, has become a matter of choice. We do not obey authority as we once did, and we no longer take our religious identities “off the shelf”. We explore for ourselves and assemble spiritual packages we find meaningful.’

Source: Linda Woodhead, ‘Faith that Won’t Fit the Mould’, The Tablet, 15 December 2012, p. 8.

Posted in church attendance, Measuring religion, News from religious organisations, Official data, Religion and Politics, Religion in public debate, Religious Census, Survey news | Tagged Bible, Bible Society, carols, Catholic Bishops' Conference of England and Wales, census of population, Christian Research, Christmas, church attendance, Church of England, churchgoing, Clive Field, Daily Telegraph, Diocese of Portsmouth, Freedom to Marry, homosexuality, ICM Research, Ipsos-MORI, Linda Woodhead, liturgy, Mail on Sunday, Missale Romanum, nativity, nativity plays, Paul Inwood, Religious Affiliation, religious festivals, religious knowledge, religious weddings, Roman Catholic Church, Roman Catholics, Roman Missal, same-sex marriage, Simon Walters, Survation, The Sun, The Tablet, YouGov | 1 Comment

Life After the Census

Posted on December 13, 2012 by Clive D. Field

The 2011 census of population may be by far the most significant religious statistical source to have been published this week, but there have been a few other reports, too, which are worthy of note. Here we highlight four which appeared on 11 or 12 December 2012.

Same-sex marriage

Just over half the population (53%) supports the broad thrust of what we now know to be Government plans in England and Wales to legislate for a) the civil marriage of same-sex couples and b) religious bodies to have the freedom, if they so choose, to offer religious marriages to same-sex couples. Endorsement is particularly strong among Liberal Democrat voters (66%) and those aged 25-39 (64%). Opposition stands at 37% and is especially pronounced among the over-60s (47%), men (44%), and Conservative voters (42%). 10% are undecided. It should be noted that fieldwork for the survey was completed before the Government unveiled its detailed plans on 11 December, so the question could not have anticipated that Government intends it to be illegal for the Church of England and the Church in Wales to offer same-sex marriages.

Forced to take sides, however, as many as 46% of adults think that the right of Churches to restrict religious marriages to a man and a woman should take precedence over the right of same-sex couples to get married, and this is strongly felt by the over-60s (64%) and Conservative voters (60%). Only 27% say that the right of same-sex couples should take priority over the Churches’ wishes, with a further 27% unsure. This pro-Church position partly reflects the concern expressed by 34% that campaigners would be able to use the Human Rights Act to get the courts to force religious bodies to offer same-sex marriages on their premises, even if they objected.

Source: Online survey by YouGov of 1,729 adult Britons aged 18 and over on 9-10 December 2012. Data tables published on 11 December at:

http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/k6mqbjfspl/Same-sex-Marriage-101212.pdf

Inter-faith relationships

A majority of Britons (58%) is comfortable with the prospect of a child or grandchild entering into a serious relationship or marriage with someone who practises a different faith. This is a greater level of comfort than about relationships with a person with a disability or longstanding health condition (51%), somebody of the same sex (45%), a resident of another country (41%), a person 15 years older or younger (35%), an individual experiencing long-term unemployment (23%), or somebody with a criminal record (14%). However, it is a lower proportion than those prepared to contemplate a relationship across the racial or ethnic divide (62%), or with a person from a much poorer (68%) or wealthier (77%) background.

A further 26% are neutral in their views about inter-faith relationships, while 16% are uncomfortable. Discomfort is most keenly felt by those who are also uncomfortable about inter-racial relationships (44%), Asians (34%), non-whites in general (25%), residents of the Midlands and East of England (21%), and the over-65s (19%). An above-average level of comfort about inter-faith relationships is displayed by the top (AB) social group and the 55-64 age cohort, 63% in each case.

Source: Online survey by Britain Thinks on behalf of British Future, undertaken on 23-25 November 2012 among 2,149 Britons aged 18 and over. Topline data were published on 11 December 2012 in Rob Ford, Rachael Jolley, Sunder Katwala and Binita Mehta, The Melting Pot Generation: How Britain Became More Relaxed on Race (London: British Future, 2012) and available at:

http://www.britishfuture.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/12/The-melting-pot-generation.pdf

The full data tables can be found at:

http://britainthinks.com/sites/default/files/OmGeneration_Jessica_Dec11th.pdf

Online social networking

In a multinational survey undertaken earlier this year, Britain came top of the 21 nations surveyed for the proportion of adults (52%) reporting that they use online social networking sites such as Facebook, just ahead of the United States and Russia (50% each). However, among these users only a handful in Britain (8%) ever use these sites to share their views about religion, compared with 30% for politics, 35% for sports, 36% for community issues, and 49% for music and movies. Therefore, the recent upsurge of interest among religious agencies in deploying social media for evangelistic purposes may be somewhat misplaced in the British context. In fact, only two of the 20 other countries (Japan on 1% and Germany on 7%) recorded a lower incidence of social media use for sharing religious views, with France and Lebanon equaling Britain on 8%. At the other end of the spectrum, more than half the users of social media in Egypt, Jordan, Tunisia, and Turkey (with large Muslim populations) put social media to religious uses, with 32% doing so in the United States.

Source: Telephone interviews with 1,018 Britons aged 18 and over between 19 March and 15 April 2012, conducted under the direction of Princeton Survey Research Associates International on behalf of the Pew Research Center and as part of the Pew Global Attitudes Project. Fieldwork was also undertaken in 20 other nations. Topline data published on 12 December in Social Networking Popular Across Globe, available at:

http://www.pewglobal.org/files/2012/12/Pew-Global-Attitudes-Project-Technology-Report-FINAL-December-12-2012.pdf

Religion in the armed forces

Members of the UK’s armed forces are still more inclined to claim a religious affiliation and to say they are Christian than the population as a whole, but the situation is changing fairly rapidly. On 1 April 2012 the proportion of armed forces personnel declaring no religion was 14.7%, up from 9.5% in 2007. It was lowest in the Army (11.9%) and highest in the Naval Service (20.1%), with 17.5% in the Royal Air Force. Across all three services the number of Christians declined from 89.7% in 2007 to 83.5% in 2012 (85.7% in the Army, 81.5% in the Royal Air Force, 78.9% in the Naval Service). That leaves a mere 1.9% in 2012 professing a non-Christian faith, an improvement on the 0.8% of five years earlier but still a significant underrepresentation in terms of society as a whole.

The religious affiliations of civilian personnel working for the armed forces have only been collected since 2008, and the declaration rate had still only climbed to 67.6% in 2012. Of those stating their religion in 2012, 24.1% said that they had none, very close to the English and Welsh average at the 2011 census (25.1%). The number of Christians was 70.8%, much higher than the 59.3% in the census, while non-Christians amounted to 5.1% (against 8.4% in the census). It should be remembered that the comparison with the census is not on a strict like-for-like basis since there was a non-response rate of 7.2% at the census.

Source: Ministry of Defence, United Kingdom Defence Statistics, 2012, tables 2.12 (armed forces) and 2.32 (civilian personnel, including a breakdown by pay band). Prepared by Defence Analytical Services and Advice, and published on 12 December 2012 at:

http://www.dasa.mod.uk/modintranet/UKDS/UKDS2012/pdf/ukds2012r1.pdf

Posted in Official data, Religion and Politics, Religion Online, Survey news | Tagged armed forces, Britain Thinks, British Future, Defence Analytical Services and Advice, homosexuality, inter-faith relationships, legislation, Ministry of Defence, online social networking, Pew Global Attitudes Project, Pew Research Center, Princeton Survey Research Associates International, Religious Affiliation, same-sex marriage, YouGov | 1 Comment

Religious Census 2011 – Initial Responses

Posted on December 12, 2012 by Clive D. Field

Herewith an initial trawl of statements by interested parties about the results from the religion question in the 2011 census of population of England and Wales. All the statements were published on 11 or 12 December 2012. No claim is made that this is a comprehensive list.

Church of England (Arun Arora)

‘These results confirm that we remain a faithful nation. England remains a country where the majority of the nation actively identifies the role that faith plays in their life. Clearly we welcome the fact that Christianity remains the most populous faith in England – with six in ten people identifying themselves as Christian. When all faiths are taken together, people of faith account for two-thirds of the nation … Obviously the fall in those choosing to identify themselves as Christians is a challenge. We need to look closely at the fuller figures published next year and to reflect on what these tell us. One of the reasons may well be fewer people identifying as “Cultural Christians” i.e. those who have no active involvement with churches and who may previously have identified as Christian for cultural or historical reasons. They indicate a changing pattern of religious life in which traditional or inherited identities are less taken for granted than they used to be. The work of the Church of England is not limited to those who declare Christian affiliation. As a Church we continue to serve people of all faiths and none …’

http://www.churchofengland.org/media-centre/news/2012/12/census-2011.aspx

Catholic Bishops’ Conference of England and Wales

‘The overall decrease in the number of self-identifying Christians is consistent with recent social attitude and social value surveys. While this is a challenge, the fact that six out of 10 people in England and Wales self-identify as Christians is not discouraging. Christianity is no longer a religion of culture but a religion of decision and commitment. People are making a positive choice in self-identifying as Christians. While precise figures are difficult to determine, polling shows that the Catholic population has remained consistent at 9% of the total population for many years … Catholics play a full part in the country’s social and cultural mix, serving the common good.’

http://catholic-ew.org.uk/Home/News-Releases/2011-Census

Methodist Church of Great Britain (Martyn Atkins)

‘These figures are a challenge to the Churches and reflect how British society has changed. But we are not discouraged. We are excited to be Christians in part of an increasingly diverse, multi-faith society and we believe that British society is enriched by this mix. It has always been clear to Methodists that the Church exists not only for those who say they belong to it, but those who don’t. We rejoice when Churches are growing, but we also rejoice when we can share with others in transforming our world and our communities for good. The numbers of people that attend worship on Sundays and on special occasions like Christmas are important, but they only show a small part of the picture. Churches remain committed to making a difference to many more people’s lives through the wider activities of our communities, in church groups, fresh expressions, work in schools and places of community through volunteering, chaplaincies, being street pastors and good neighbours … The Census results mean we need to think and act smarter in seeking to be good witnesses to Jesus Christ today, and many Methodists will relish that opportunity.’

http://methodist.org.uk/news-and-events/news-releases/census-response-church-is-for-life-not-just-christmas-says-methodist-general-secretary

Evangelical Alliance (Steve Clifford)

‘The UK retains a strong Christian heritage, according to the release of figures from the 2011 census … There’s no real surprise in these figures, they reflect what we are seeing across the country. Being a Christian is increasingly understood as following Jesus and not just wearing a cultural or historic label. For a lot of people who do not identify as religious, it is probably more taking off a label that doesn’t fit than embracing a particular anti-religious agenda. As evangelical Christians we are presented with a fantastic opportunity. The gospel prospers in a context where faith is alive and freely chosen; we should take the results of the census as an opportunity to get to know the people the numbers represent.’

http://eauk.org/current-affairs/news/census-is-britain-still-a-christian-country.cfm

Fresh Expressions (Norman Ivison)

‘The newly published statistics show what many have been saying for some time. The church in England and Wales needs to find new ways of engaging those who no longer have, or never had any interest in the Christian faith. The reality is that inherited church life is still attractive to many people but not to everyone. New forms of church are developing throughout the UK, alongside parish and other traditional structures, which are increasingly helping those who have never been to church to discover the Christian faith for themselves. The Census statistics demonstrate that real alternatives need to be offered for those who find conventional church inaccessible for all sorts of reasons.’

http://cte.churchinsight.com/Articles/337010/Churches_Together_in/News_Events/News/Fresh_Expressions_re.aspx

Bible Society (Ben Whithall)

‘With Christmas coming up, now seems like a good time to think about labels. Research numbers we’ve been seeing recently – including the religion statistics from the latest census – suggest that when it comes to “religion”, the labels we have aren’t very helpful … It quickly becomes clear that religious identity and activity – and certainly what’s going on in people’s heads or hearts behind either – don’t fall into easy or binary categories in our society today. This idea of straightforward segregation between “religious” and “the rest/normality” in life looks increasingly ridiculous … as does the setting up of diametrically-opposed “Christian” and “non-Christian” sides. In practice, the lines seem very blurred for most people. So can we please rescue the Bible from falling into splendid isolation in a small glass case labelled “in case of spiritual emergency”’.

http://www.biblesociety.org.uk/news/stats-show-society-doesnt-split-into-religious-sides/

Ekklesia (Simon Barrow)

‘The new census data from England and Wales confirms what we have been saying for some time. Britain is increasingly becoming a mixed society in terms of culture, identity and belief. The key issue for people of all religions and none in plural settings is to learn to develop their own values and practices in a way that recognises difference and seeks to make a beneficial contribution to society through good example rather than compulsion.’

http://www.ekklesia.co.uk/node/17589

Theos (Nick Spencer)

‘It’s important to recognise what the Census doesn’t measure – what people believe or what they practice – and what it does measure – how they identify themselves with regard to a religion … Just because someone calls themselves a Christian, it doesn’t mean they faithfully live by Christian creeds and practices. We all know that. But the same is true for the non-religious. A recent study by Theos/ComRes into the non-religious, Post-Religious Britain? The Faith of the Faithless, shows how wrong it is to imagine that someone who calls themselves non-religious, or even an atheist, has no spiritual beliefs … The non-religious category is as messy as the religious one, with non-religious people believing in things and behaving in ways that are not particularly non-religious. What this all means is that if it is increasingly hard to sustain the claim that Britain is still a Christian country, it is even harder to claim it is an atheistic or secular one. What we are becoming is ever more religiously plural: ever more people believe, behave and belong in different ways to their neighbours when it comes to religion and spirituality.’

http://www.theosthinktank.co.uk/comment/2012/12/12/2011-census-the-religion-question

Institute for Jewish Policy Research

‘2011 UK Census data released on 11 December 2012 by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) show a Jewish population of 263,376 in England and Wales. This represents a small increase of 1.3% since 2001, and suggests the UK Jewish population has remained largely static over the past ten years. However, more detailed analysis of the data reveal significant changes at the local and regional levels, with clear indications of population growth and decline in particular areas. These provide critical insights into developments in the British Jewish community.’ A four-page paper, ‘2011 Census Results (England and Wales): Initial Insights about the UK Jewish Population’, written by David Graham and Jonathan Boyd of the Institute for Jewish Policy Research and Daniel Vulkan of the Board of Deputies of British Jews, is available at:

http://www.jpr.org.uk/downloads/2011%20Census%20Initial%20findings%20report%20Final%20Dec%202012.pdf

Muslim Council of Britain (Farooq Murad)

‘Welcoming the Census 2011 results, the Muslim Council of Britain commented that the growth in number points to the fact that Muslims play a significant part in the increasing diversity of Britain. The population of Muslims in England and Wales is now 2.71 million, of a total of 56.1 million – around 4.8% of the population. The Muslim presence across the length and breadth of the land, from inner London (almost half a million) to the Isles of Scilly (around half a dozen) is a matter of fact. Comparison with the 2001 Census indicates that the populations of all minority faith communities have increased – for example the Hindu and Buddhist communities rose by 48% and 70% respectively. This is a reflection not just of demographic profile – the BME communities’ lower age profile means they have young families – but also ONS’s greater success in disseminating the Census message within hard-to-reach communities … In a time of brutal and drastic public sector cuts, policy makers will now be in a position to target scarce public resources more effectively to the most needy districts and wards – this applies particularly to the provision of childcare facilities to help working mothers and youth services … The voluntary religion question was answered by 92.8% of the population, validating the MCB’s campaign when first lobbying for its inclusion that Britain is not shy about faith.’

http://mcb.org.uk/media/presstext.php?ann_id=510

British Humanist Association (Andrew Copson)

‘Census results just published show a plunge in the number of people ticking “Christian” in England and Wales from 72% in 2001 to 59% in 2011 and an increase in the number of people ticking to say they have no religion from 15% in 2001 to 25% in 2011. This represents a 67% relative rise in the number saying “no religion”. In addition, the British Humanist Association (BHA) has calculated that if the change in Christianity showed between 2001 and 2011 continues at a linear rate, then Christians would be recorded as in the minority by the Census question from September 2018 … This is a really significant cultural shift. In spite of a biased question that positively encourages religious responses, to see such an increase in the non-religious and such a decrease in those reporting themselves as Christian is astounding. Of course these figures still exaggerate the number of Christians overall – the number of believing, practicing Christians is much lower than this and the number of those leading their lives with no reference to religion much higher. Religious practice, identity, belonging and belief are all in decline in this country, and non-religious identities are on the rise. It is time that public policy caught up with this mass turning away from religious identities and stopped privileging religious bodies with ever increasing numbers of state-funded religious schools and other faith-based initiatives. They are decreasingly relevant to British life and identity and governments should catch up and accept that fact.’

http://humanism.org.uk/2012/12/11/census-results-show-huge-shift-in-cultural-identity-from-christianity-to-no-religion/

National Secular Society (Terry Sanderson)

‘Findings from the 2011 census for England and Wales have revealed the number of people who say they are Christian has dropped dramatically from 72% to 59%. The figures published today by the Office for National Statistics also show the number of people who say they have no religion has risen from 15% to 25% … Such an enormous reversal in the space of ten years is an indication of the huge upheaval there has been in religious attitudes in Britain. It should serve as a warning to the churches that their increasingly conservative attitudes are not playing well with the public at large. It also calls into question the continued establishment of the Church of England whose claims to speak for the whole nation are now very hard to take seriously … It will certainly give the churches a great deal of food for thought, and should tell the Government that although it might “do God” as Baroness Warsi claims, a huge proportion of the population do not. This should be reflected in policy-making.’

http://www.secularism.org.uk/news/2012/12/census-shows-dramatic-fall-in-number-of-christians-in-uk

The Guardian (Jonathan Freedland)

‘God – or at least the church – is struggling in this country. Ten years ago 72% identified as Christians; now it’s just 59%. The panicmongers on the reactionary right will compare that to the rise in the number of British Muslims to 2.7m – from 3% of the total population in 2001 to 5% now – and warn that Christianity will one day be outstripped by Islam. But the biggest challenge to Christian influence in our national life is not Islam, but rather the 25% who declared themselves to be of “no religion” at all, up from 15% in 2001. Non-believers now form the second biggest denomination … It confirms our place as perhaps the most godless country, the least “churched”, in the industrialised world, setting us apart from the US, obviously, but also from much of continental Europe.’

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2012/dec/11/census-2011-england-wales

Posted in Official data, Religion in public debate, Religion in the Press | Tagged Bible Society, British Humanist Association, Catholic Bishops' Conference of England and Wales, census of population, Church of England, Ekklesia, Evangelical Alliance, Fresh Expressions, Institute for Jewish Policy Research, Methodist Church of Great Britain, Muslim Council of Britain, National Secular Society, Religious Affiliation, The Guardian, Theos | 2 Comments

Religious Census 2011 – England and Wales

Posted on December 12, 2012 by Clive D. Field

There have been some marked changes in the religious composition of England and Wales during the past decade, according to the first results from the 2011 census of population which were released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) on 11 December 2012.

A statistical bulletin containing the principal findings, with analysis and commentary, is available at:

http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/dcp171776_290510.pdf

A spreadsheet of statistics for each local or unitary authority, expressed as numbers, percentages and rankings for nine main religious categories, can be found in Table KS209EW at:

http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/publications/re-reference-tables.html?edition=tcm%3A77-286262

At the same URL is Table QS210EW which contains the same information for local authorities broken down by a 58-category classification, utilizing the write-in responses given by those claiming to be of ‘any other religion’.

A podcast featuring audio and graphical animations is on the ONS YouTube channel at:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tXdZJoXuxC8

The census was taken on 27 March 2011. The question asked on religion was the same as in 2001: ‘What is your religion?’ This formulation, which some interpret as implying that a respondent would/should have a faith, is known to give higher positive answers than the more open sort of question asked in the British Social Attitudes (BSA) Surveys, which is: ‘Do you regard yourself as belonging to any particular religion? If yes, which?’ The 2011 BSA reported 46.1% as having no religion on this basis.

The census reply options (in this order on the self-completion schedule) were: no religion, Christian, Buddhist, Hindu, Jewish, Muslim, Sikh, and any other religion (write in). However, it should be noted that ‘no religion’ replaced ‘none’ (which had been used in 2001), ‘for clarity’ and consistency with other questions, as ONS explains. Where appropriate, ONS reassigned the ‘other religion’ given to one of the main religious categories (including ‘no religion’).

The religion question was entirely voluntary, and 7.2% chose not to answer it, slightly down on the 7.7% in 2001. It cannot be assumed that the religion of these people will exactly match the distribution of those who did reply, so it is not recommended that the data are rebaselined to exclude non-respondents.

Reasons for refusing to answer were not sought, although, clearly, some will have been motivated by an aversion to ‘the state’ enquiring into such a private matter as religion, while others will have proceeded on the principle of never volunteering information which is not mandatory.

Another methodological consideration to be borne in mind is that the census question on religion will often have been answered by the head of household on behalf of all members of the household and thus may reflect his/her interpretation rather than their actual views, especially if the head of household held strong religious convictions one way or another.

Finally, we should note that there was some apparent ‘trivialization’ in the responses. The social media campaign to have ‘heavy metal’ inserted as a religion did not have much impact, since only 6,000 eventually declared themselves as such on the census form. However, the ‘Jedi knight’ (from the Star Wars films) campaign, which had been so influential in 2001, continued to have an effect, with 177,000 adherents, albeit very many fewer than a decade previously (when there were 390,000).

Moving to the picture which emerges from the census, there has been a big increase (over two-thirds), from 14.8% to 25.1% (the latter equating to 14,100,000 individuals), in those professing no religion. It is hard to say whether the alteration in the wording of the reply option contributed to this or not, or the reassignment to ‘no religion’ of 32,000 agnostics, 29,000 atheists, and 15,000 humanists.

At ‘regional’ level, the proportion with no religion peaked in Wales (32.1%), once renowned for its Nonconformity, and at local authority level in Norwich (42.5%), closely followed by Brighton and Hove (42.4%). Regionally, the North-West had the fewest with no religion (19.8%). Local authorities with unusually low numbers of the non-religious superficially correlated with the strong presence of Catholics, Jews, Muslims, and Sikhs, albeit this requires further investigation.

There has been a correspondingly big reduction, almost one-fifth, in the number of people claiming to be Christian, from 71.7% in 2001 to 59.3% in 2011, although Christianity still remains by far the biggest religious group. The fall has occurred across all local authorities, with the largest drop (16.8%) in Kingston-upon-Hull. The North-East (67.5%) and North-West of England (67.3%) had the highest proportion of Christians, reaching 80.9% in Knowsley (perhaps due to the Roman Catholic heritage). London had the least (48.4%), linked to the fact that only a minority of Londoners now describe themselves as white British.

The census did not seek to differentiate between the various denominations which make up Christianity, and this is also true of other Government sources. However, it is clear from other sample surveys that the main reason for Christianity losing ground is the collapse in nominal allegiance to the Church of England.

A crude comparison of the BSA data for 2001 and 2011 shows that the Church of England’s ‘market share’ of the adult population fell by 28.1% during the decade. According to a very large (64,000) sample of adult Britons interviewed by YouGov in April-May 2011, i.e. about the same time as the census, one-third affiliate to the Church of England (and its Anglican equivalents in Wales and Scotland); in 1947-49 it had been 51% in a series of Gallup polls.

The next largest faith after Christianity in the census was Islam. Muslims now account for 4.8% of English and Welsh residents, up from 3.0% in 2001. The increase, to 2,706,000, is broadly in line with expectation. It probably substantially reflects the youthful profile of the Muslim community, with a greater concentration in the child-bearing cohorts (although age by religion breakdowns have yet to be published by ONS, so this assumption cannot be empirically validated). Migration may also have played a part.

London had the highest proportion of Muslims (12.4%), and the fastest rate of growth since 2001, Tower Hamlets being the local authority with the largest concentration (34.5%, 7.4% more than Christians), and Newham the next (32.0%). More generally, the capital was the most diverse region, with 22.4% identifying with a faith other than Christianity.

All other religions, apart from Christianity and Islam, comprised 3.6% of the population, against 2.8% in 2001. They include Hindus (1.5%), Sikhs (0.8%), Jews (0.5%), Buddhists (0.4%), and others (0.4%). Sikhs were disproportionately resident in the West Midlands, but Buddhists, Hindus, and Jews were most prevalent in London. Among the 0.4% of others, Pagans (57,000) and Spiritualists (39,000) were most numerous.

A second post by me, summarizing public comment on the English and Welsh religious census data, will appear over the next few days. BRIN’s co-director, Professor David Voas, hopes to post his own analysis on BRIN in due course.

Religion results for the 2011 census in Scotland (which was organized by the National Records of Scotland) have not been published yet, but are expected to be released shortly (and will be covered by BRIN as soon as possible). Those for Northern Ireland (where the census is run by the Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency) are summarized at:

http://www.nisra.gov.uk/Census/key_stats_bulletin_2011.pdf

Posted in Official data | Tagged British Social Attitudes Surveys, census of population, Christianity, England and Wales, Islam, no religion, nones, Office for National Statistics, Religious Affiliation | 3 Comments

Surveyitis and Other News

Posted on December 7, 2012 by Clive D. Field

Today’s digest of religious statistical news highlights a thought-provoking blog about ‘surveyitis’ by the Director of the AHRC/ESRC Religion and Society programme, as well as headline findings from two actual surveys, among evangelicals and adult learners.

A bad case of surveyitis

In our last post, on 4 December, we briefly anticipated the publication of Professor Linda Woodhead’s blog inspired by the recent Theos report, Post-Religious Britain? The Faith of the Faithless. This blog was published on The Guardian’s Comment is Free website on 5 December under the heading ‘Surveying Religious Belief Needs Social Science Not Hard Science’. In it Professor Woodhead provides some salutary advice on the difficulties of measuring public opinion in relation to religion, which she characterizes as an ever-changing and often also a vague and contested area. She particularly counsels against ‘surveyitis’, ‘a disease that afflicts people who stay indoors too long poring over data’, and whose ‘symptoms include credulity about the accuracy of survey responses and morbid attachment to outdated questions’, the latter ‘working with zombie categories’. She detects ‘a new outbreak of surveyitis’ occasioned by an upsurge of interest in ‘nones’, people who do not identify with or practice religion. She emphasizes ‘doubt, subtlety, uncertainty and cognitive modesty’, in contrast to the idea of ‘a fantasy rational man with clear and distinct ideas’ who ‘lurks behind many survey designs’. The blog can be read at:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/belief/2012/dec/05/nones-on-the-run-religion

Evangelicals living the Christian life

Three-quarters (76%) of lay evangelicals have been Christians for more than twenty years, with an average of twenty-two years, ‘reflecting, perhaps, a lack of priority in evangelism’. Indeed, evangelism is only seen as the fourth most important (of six) key dimensions of church life. Stability is also suggested by the fact that two-fifths have never attended any other than their existing place of worship. Notwithstanding, the overwhelming majority of lay evangelicals consider that their faith has grown during the past year, the principal reasons for such growth being the fellowship and teaching (in services) of their church and house groups. The Bible is also deemed a significant influence, not just for faith development but in shaping attitudes to family and world; this is especially true of the over-40s. Prayer is widespread, 71% of these laity praying every day and a further 22% several times a week. However, they rather struggle with the concept of Christlikeness, which is typically expressed in terms of kindness, while 54% have a concern that ‘becoming more Christlike will increasingly alienate Christians from the culture around them’.

Source: Surveys undertaken by Brierley Consultancy in 2012 among 1,999 English evangelicals from three groups: a) churchgoers in seven congregations (three Anglican, one Baptist, three Independent); b) laity answering advertisements in Christian newspapers and magazines (and thus self-selecting); c) ministers from a range of denominations. The research was commissioned by the Langham Partnership (UK and Ireland), whose purpose is ‘to help churches grow in maturity or simple Christlikeness’, and which is running the ‘9-a-day: Becoming Like Jesus’ campaign in January-July 2013 ‘to encourage Christians in that transformative process’. A summary of the study (which BRIN found rather confusingly presented) appears in the 16-page pamphlet Living the Christian Life: Becoming Like Jesus (Tonbridge: ADBC Publishers, 2012). This can be obtained (for £2, inclusive of postage) from Brierley Consultancy, The Old Post Office, 1 Thorpe Avenue, Tonbridge, Kent, TN10 4PW, email peter@brierleyres.com. Also available for purchase from the same source are detailed reports of the research among laity in the seven participating congregations (Vol. 1) and the ministers (Vol. 2), priced £7.50 each. Cheques should be made payable to Peter Brierley.

Religion and belief in adult learning

Just over one-half (53%) of adult learners at further education colleges in England consider themselves to have a religion, a further 10% say that they have some form of non-religious belief (agnosticism, atheism, humanism, and spiritualism being most often mentioned), while 37% have neither. Students with religion are disproportionately to be found among the over-25s, women and ethnic minorities. Of those reporting a religion, 57% are Christian and 27% Muslim, and 53% claim actively to practise their religion. Within the learning environment 56% are fully or partially open about their religion or belief, typically through the expression of their opinions or the wearing (by 22%) of some form of religious dress or symbol. Although religion and/or belief are not widely seen as barriers to learning opportunities, 11% of adult learners with religious beliefs report that they have experienced bullying or harassment due to their religion and 4% due to their beliefs. This compares with 11% of those with non-religious beliefs who have been victims of bullying or harassment on account of their beliefs and 5% of those without any religion or belief. Fewer than one-third of victims have notified somebody in the learning environment about their experience of bullying or harassment. One-quarter of all adult learners state that they have had positive learning outcomes as a result of their religion or belief, rising to 35% of those with a religion.

Source: Survey of a self-selecting sample of 1,139 adult learners aged 19 and over (with 49% aged 19-29) attending further education colleges in England who completed an online questionnaire between 16 February and 11 May 2012. Women (63%) were overrepresented by 6% relative to the adult learning sector as a whole. The study was undertaken by Babcock Research on behalf of the Skills Funding Agency, with take-up of the survey being promoted by further education providers. It is reported in Donna James, Clare Lambley and Kay Turner, Religion and Belief in Adult Learning: Learner Views (Coventry: Skills Funding Agency, 2012), which is freely available at:

http://readingroom.skillsfundingagency.bis.gov.uk/sfa/Religion_and_Belief_report.pdf

Posted in Measuring religion, News from religious organisations, Official data, Religion in the Press, Survey news | Tagged adult learners, Babcock Research, Brierley Consultancy, Bullying, Christlikeness, Clare Lambley, Comment is Free, Donna James, evangelicals, further education, harassment, Kay Turner, Langham Partnership (UK and Ireland), Linda Woodhead, Peter Brierley, Religious Affiliation, Skills Funding Agency, surveyitis, The Guardian | 2 Comments

British Cohort Study + Fostering

Posted on December 2, 2012 by Clive D. Field

Our main story in today’s round-up of religious statistical news features initial findings from the current wave of one of the few genuinely longitudinal studies covering religion in this country, which further illustrates some of the methodological challenges involved in framing questions about religious affiliation. We also briefly note a survey of attitudes to inter-religious fostering in the wake of the recent row over fostering in Rotherham.

British Cohort Study: art of asking questions about religion

Among adult Britons now (2012) aged 42 years, 68% recall that they had some form of religious upbringing (32% as Anglicans, 10% as Roman Catholics, 8% as Christians in a specified denomination, 14% as undenominational Christians, 4% as non-Christians) and 32% none. However, today almost half (47%) regard themselves as belonging to no particular religion, with the biggest drop in affiliation (11%) being among those raised as Anglicans. Moreover, claimed attendance at religious services or meetings by these 42-year-olds is a distinctly minority activity, 74% never or rarely going, 16% occasionally but less than once a month, with 11% monthly or more often.

In terms of belief, 43% of these 42-year-olds say they believe in God (13% without doubts, 18% with doubts, and 12% some of the time). A further 14% believe in a higher power but not a personal God. Of the rest, 22% definitely do not believe in God and 20% are uncertain. The proportion who believe in life after death is slightly higher than in a personal God (49%, 19% definitely and 30% probably), with 18% replying definitely not and 34% probably not. In an echo of Mass-Observation’s classic 1947 study of Puzzled People, 23% of those who believe in God do not believe in life after death, and 21% of those who disbelieve in, or are uncertain about the existence of, God do believe in an afterlife.

Source: Analysis of initial responses (n = 2,197) to the May-December 2012 wave of the 1970 British Cohort Study (BCS70), which is following the lives of more than 17,000 people born in Britain in a single week during Spring 1970. By 2012 panel members were, accordingly, aged 42. They supplied information about religion by means of self-completion questionnaire in connection with the face-to-face interviews being conducted by TNS-BMRB. An important health warning is given by the researchers: ‘These [initial] responses may not be representative of the sample as a whole, and we have not investigated the characteristics of this subsample.’

The preliminary analysis appears in Alice Sullivan, David Voas and Matt Brown, The Art of Asking Questions about Religion, published on 28 November 2012 by the Centre for Longitudinal Studies (CLS), Institute of Education, University of London. The CLS, which oversees BCS70, is a resource centre funded by the Economic and Social Research Council. The report also summarizes the replies to religious affiliation questions given by cohort members in 1986, 1996, 2000, and 2004, making comparisons with British Social Attitudes Surveys, and highlighting how ‘apparently small differences in question wording can lead to dramatic differences in responses’. Of course, the fact that consistent question-wording has not been used for each wave of BCS70 does somewhat undermine the value of the longitudinal approach in charting changes in the behaviour of panel members as they age.

The press release by CLS, with a link for downloading the report, and observations on the findings by BRIN’s David Voas, can be found at:

http://www.cls.ioe.ac.uk/news.aspx?itemid=2431&itemTitle=More+people+may+believe+in+life+after+death+than+God%2c+study+finds&sitesectionid=905&sitesectiontitle=Press+Releases

Fostering

The majority (70%) of Britons think it definitely or usually acceptable for children to be fostered by foster parents who practice a different religion to that of the children being fostered. This is a higher proportion than believe that people with criminal records should be allowed to foster children (15%), or those with extreme political views (36%), the over-65s (44%), smokers (46%), and gays or lesbians (66%).

However, there is somewhat less approval of fostering by persons of a different religion to the foster child than is the case with fostering by unmarried couples (81%) or people of a different racial group to the child (85%). One-fifth (20%) contend that fostering across the religious divide should not be permitted, with Londoners and Conservative voters (each on 23%) and men (22%) being most likely to hold this view. The remaining 11% express no opinion.

Source: Online survey of 1,910 Britons aged 18 and over, undertaken by YouGov on 26-27 November 2012, and prompted by the current row in Rotherham where foster children have been taken away from foster parents who are members of the United Kingdom Independence Party. Full data tables, published on 28 November, are available at:

http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/q1p1s7kwva/Fostering_Results_121127.pdf

Posted in church attendance, Measuring religion, Religion and Social Capital, Survey news | Tagged afterlife, Alice Sullivan, BCS70, British Cohort Study, British Social Attitudes Surveys, Centre for Longitudinal Studies, church attendance, David Voas, Economic and Social Research Council, foster children, foster parents, fostering, God, Institute of Education, inter-religious fostering, life after death, Matt Brown, Methodology, question-wording, Religious Affiliation, religious upbringing, Rotherham, TNS-BMRB, YouGov | 1 Comment

Teaching Christianity and Other News

Posted on November 27, 2012 by Clive D. Field

Today’s round-up of religious news highlights poll data in support of the improved teaching of religious education (RE) in schools and presents a gender breakdown of last week’s vote on women bishops in the Church of England’s General Synod.

Teaching Christianity in RE

There is ‘widespread support in England for the teaching of Christianity as part of Religious Education’ in schools, according to newly-released data. Two-thirds (64%) of English adults agree that children need to learn about Christianity in order to understand English history, and 57% to comprehend the English culture and way-of-life. Even among those describing themselves as not religious the figures are 54% and 41% respectively.

Just under one-half (44%) of the English also say that more attention should be given to the teaching of Christianity in schools, and this is particularly true of the over-55s, albeit much less so (26%) among those identifying as not religious. But 37% of all adults feel that many RE teachers do not know enough about Christianity themselves in order to be able to teach it effectively.

Areas of Christianity which people regard as especially important for children to learn about in RE are the history of Christianity (58%), major Christian events and festivals (56%), and how Christianity distinguishes right from wrong (51%). Fewer (38%) mention that pupils should be taught the Bible, with no more than 30% wanting them to learn the Lord’s Prayer.

It would naturally be wrong to infer from these results that adults solely wish to prioritize the teaching of Christianity in RE at the expense of other world faiths (or none). Indeed, other polls indicate strong support for a pluralistic approach to RE, but (apparently) this was not explored in this particular investigation.

Source: Online survey by YouGov among 1,832 adults aged 18 and over in England between 16 and 18 May 2012. The poll was conducted on behalf of Oxford University’s Department of Education as the initial stage of a national intervention project, led by Dr Nigel Fancourt and funded by various charitable trusts, to support teachers tackling the subject of Christianity in schools. It seeks to address concerns raised by Ofsted inspectors and others about how Christianity is currently being taught.

The full data from the survey have yet to be released into the public domain. This BRIN report is therefore based upon various online media coverage on 26 November 2012, when some of the findings were published, particularly in a press release by Oxford University at:

http://www.ox.ac.uk/media/news_releases_for_journalists/121126.html

Gender analysis of General Synod vote on women bishops

The Church of England published on 26 November 2012 the General Synod electronic voting results for the Bishops and Priests (Consecration and Ordination of Women) Measure, debated (and lost) on 20 November 2012. The list appears at:

http://churchofengland.org/media/1588752/item%20501.pdf

From the list of names BRIN has compiled an analysis of voting by the gender of General Synod members in each of the three Houses (of Bishops, Clergy, Laity), excluding the two episcopal abstentions, as follows:

	Men	Men	Women	Women	Total	Total
	For	Against	For	Against	For	Against
Bishops	44	3	0	0	44	3
Clergy	94	44	54	1	148	45
Laity	74	41	58	33	132	74
Total	212	88	112	34	324	122

It can be calculated that, across the Synod as a whole, opposition to the Measure to permit women bishops stood at 29% among male members and 23% for female members (with an average of 27%). However, whereas only one of the women in the House of Clergy, or 2%, was opposed, the proportion was 36% in the House of Laity. Indeed, in the House of Laity the Measure failed to attain the requisite two-thirds majority for passing among both male and female members (64% each voting in favour).

Social welfare

There are a few – but not fully consistent – religious differences in attitudes to social welfare, according to a new study. Christians (75%) are somewhat more likely than those with no religion (66%) to say that ‘the creation of the welfare state is one of Britain’s proudest achievements’. However, more of the latter (76%) than the former (68%) agree that ‘everyone has the right to a minimum standard of living which should be paid for if necessary by the welfare state’. Slightly more Christians (67%) than nones (62%) consider that the benefits system is not working well and needs improvement or radical overhaul.

In the view of 48% of Christians and 40% of nones the level of benefits people receive should be proportionate to the amount of tax which they have paid. Larger numbers of Christians than those of no religion favour universal state pensions (77% versus 72%) and winter fuel allowance (25% against 20%), but the reverse is true of universal child benefit (supported by 39% compared with 43%).

Source: Telephone survey of 1,001 Britons aged 18 and over by ComRes for BBC Radio 4 on 16-18 November 2012. The number of respondents for religious groups other than Christians and none (n = 548 and 297 respectively) is too small to be meaningful. Full data tables published on 27 November and available at:

http://www.comres.co.uk/polls/BBC_Welfare_Poll_November2012.pdf

Profiling the ‘nones’

The number of Britons professing to have no religion reached 36% in a recent poll, but they are not evenly spread across the demographic groups. They are particularly to be found among those aged 18-34, of whom they constitute 47%, and they account for only 26% of the over-65s. Doubtless in reflection of this youthful profile, the nones comprise 42% of persons with the lowest annual household income (up to £14,000). They also have an above-average representation in South-West and Northern England and Wales (41%). By contrast, they are under-represented (28%) among Conservative voters, 69% of the latter being Christians (13% more than for all adults).

Source: Online survey of 2,066 Britons aged 18 and over, conducted by Populus on 24-26 October 2012 on behalf of the Conservative Party. Details contained in table 18 at:

http://www.populus.co.uk/uploads/OmChild_Benefit.pdf

Posted in News from religious organisations, Religion and Politics, Religion in public debate, Survey news | Tagged BBC Radio 4, benefits, Bishops and Priests (Consecration and Ordination of Women) Measure, Christianity, Christians, Church of England, ComRes, Conservative Party, gender, General Synod, Nigel Fancourt, nones, Oxford University Department of Education, Populus, Religious Affiliation, religious education, schools, social welfare, teaching, welfare state, women bishops, YouGov | 5 Comments

After General Synod, Religion and Health

Posted on November 25, 2012 by Clive D. Field

In today’s news round-up, BRIN covers a poll of public attitudes to current issues in the Church of England, following General Synod’s narrowest of rejections of women bishops, and some interesting research into the relationships between religion and health.

Church of England after General Synod

Last Tuesday’s failure of the Measure for Women Bishops to gain the necessary two-thirds majority in all three houses of General Synod (it fell short in the House of Laity) seems to have impacted negatively on the image of the Church of England. In the first test of public opinion since the synodical vote, 76% of adults say that the Church is out of touch with society. The proportion varies relatively little by demographics (even by age), ranging from a low of 71% among professing Anglicans to 81% of Liberal Democrats (whose party policy is to disestablish the Church). Just 8% believe the Church to be in touch (and no more than 12% of Anglicans), with 16% uncertain.

Support for women bishops in the Church of England now runs at 78%, virtually unchanged from the 77% recorded by YouGov in its poll on 8-9 November 2012. The strongest backing again comes from Liberal Democrats (90%), with Labour voters on 84%, and Conservatives on 73%. Women are slightly more in favour than men, and non-manual than manual workers. The regional spread is from 71% in London to 81% in Northern England. Anglican endorsement (77%) runs near the national average. Opposition to women bishops stands at 10% (peaking at 13% in the Midlands and Wales and among Conservatives), with 11% undecided.

Some politicians and commentators have suggested that Parliament should intervene to force the Church of England to accept women bishops; this would involve the removal of the Church’s exemptions under the Equality Act 2010. One-third (34%) of Britons endorse such intervention, Londoners and the over-60s (29%) being the least enthusiastic and Labour voters the most (39%). On the other side, 49% say that it is a matter for the Church to decide and that it would be an attack on religious freedom for Parliament to become involved. Anglicans (57%), the over-60s (57%), and Conservatives (55%) are most inclined to take this position. The remaining 17% have no firm view.

It has also been speculated that the failure of the Measure for Women Bishops will undermine the credibility of the Church of England in opposing impending Government legislation for same-sex marriage in England and Wales. Almost one-half (48%) of Britons criticize the Church for this opposition, rising to two-thirds of the 18-24s and Liberal Democrats. A further 38% support the Church’s stance, peaking at 54% of the over-60s, 53% of Conservatives, and 50% of Anglicans. The don’t knows number 13%.

Source: Online survey by YouGov of 1,812 adult Britons aged 18 and over on 22-23 November 2012, on behalf of The Sunday Times. Detailed tables available on p. 9 of:

http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/lmlmhdqllh/YG-Archives-Pol-ST-results%20-%2023-251112.pdf

Religion and health in Scotland

BRIN readers will be relieved to know that recent Scottish research concluded ‘there was no significant association between toothache and religion’. However, a complex set of other relationships between health and religion was demonstrated. So, pursuing the dental line of enquiry, we find that ‘Religious faith appears to have a strong association with how many natural teeth respondents have. Only 69% of Roman Catholics had 20 or more natural teeth, which was significantly lower than the national average of 72%. Muslims were the most likely to have twenty or more natural teeth (95%) followed by Hindus (93%) and Buddhists (89%).’

On alcohol, those professing no religion were the most likely to drink excessively, and Muslims, Hindus, and Buddhists the least likely. Smoking was also more prevalent than average among the nones, and among Roman Catholics as well, and most uncommon with Muslims and Protestant Christians beyond the Kirk. On the other hand, the nones were most likely and Muslims the least likely to meet the recommended level of physical activity. Buddhists and Hindus had the lowest prevalence of obesity and Church of Scotland adherents the most. Muslims had a much higher incidence of diabetes than the norm but the second lowest experience of cardio-vascular disease, the latter particularly affecting Catholics and Buddhists. Buddhists, Muslims, and Hindus were well above the national average in meeting the 5-a-day guideline intake of fruit and vegetables.

In terms of overall self-assessed health, 76% of Scots evaluated it as very good or good. For the various faith groups, the range was from 70% for Buddhists and Muslims to 92% for Hindus, with the Church of Scotland on 78%, Roman Catholics on 72%, other Christians on 77%, and those of no religion on 75%. Hindus also had the highest levels of positive mental well-being.

The report on the research mostly confines itself to documenting the two-way correlations between religion and health. There are obviously limits to what can be achieved in putting forward possible explanations of these relationships without proceeding to some form of multivariate analysis. Clearly, it seems probable that the patterns will be differentially affected by such factors as the age, socio-economic, and ethnic profiles of each of the faith groups. Neither is there any control for religious practice, which would have been particularly interesting given existing research (disproportionately American) suggesting a positive link between churchgoing and health.

Source: Aggregate analysis of the last four years (2008-11) of the Scottish Health Survey, in which data were collected on 28,770 Scottish adults aged 16 and over and resident in private households by means of face-to-face interview and self-completion questionnaire. Fieldwork was undertaken by ScotCen Social Research on behalf of the Scottish Government and NHS Health Scotland. The religious profile of the sample was found to be: no religion (41%), Church of Scotland (32%), Roman Catholic (15%), other Christian (9%), non-Christian (3%). However, sub-samples of non-Christians were relatively small (220 Muslims, 63 Buddhists, 59 Hindus, and 418 others). Detailed tables of results appear on pp. 71-88 of Paul Whybrow, Julie Ramsay and Karen MacNee, The Scottish Health Survey: Topic Report – Equality Groups, published by the Scottish Government on 30 October 2012 and available at:

http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Resource/0040/00406749.pdf

Posted in Official data, Religion and Ethnicity, Religion and Politics, Religion and Social Capital, Religion in public debate, Religion in the Press, Survey news | Tagged Church of England, Equality Act 2010, equality groups, General Synod, homosexuality, Julie Ramsay, Karen MacNee, Measure for Women Bishops, NHS Health Scotland, out of touch, Parliament, Paul Whybrow, religion and health, Religious Affiliation, religious freedom, same-sex marriage, ScotCen Social Research, Scotland, Scottish Government, Scottish Health Survey, Sunday Times, women bishops, YouGov | Leave a comment

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