YouGov@Cambridge Launched

Last Thursday (28 April) marked the virtual launch of YouGov@Cambridge, a new research forum representing a collaboration between online pollsters YouGov and the University of Cambridge’s Department of Politics and International Studies (POLIS).

YouGov@Cambridge, directed by Dr Joel Faulkner Rogers, aims ‘to bring “headlights” to an increasingly complex world, where global trends are ever less about what superpowers and superbrands “do”, and ever more about “what the world thinks” – and how the two interact.’

Although the formal launch event, the YouGov Global Perspectives Conference, will not take place until 7-9 September 2011, in London and Cambridge, YouGov@Cambridge has already begun to release interim results from new surveys, a substantial archive of which can be viewed at:

http://www.yougov.polis.cam.ac.uk/archive

Many of the data on the archive site derive from an online poll conducted among an unweighted sample of 19,104 Britons aged 18 and over between 13 and 22 April 2011, but most questions appear to have been put to sub-samples. The topics covered are wide-ranging, including various items of religious interest.

For instance, 77% of respondents thought that Britain had become less religious during the past thirty years, rising to 83% of men, 84% of the over-55s and 86% of Scots. Just 6% said that Britain had become more religious, with 9% seeing no difference and 8% expressing no opinion. 66% considered that the country had become less moral over the same period.

However, only 10% overall thought that shifts in attitudes towards religion had been the biggest single change since 1981, compared with 22% citing altered opinions of ethnic minorities, 19% of the environment, and 14% of women’s role in society. The principal exception was in Scotland, where (at 18%) religious change was in second place, after environment.

Looking ahead to events which might happen during the next forty years, a mere 1% anticipated that Jesus Christ would return to earth. Science fiction beliefs were slightly more popular, with 8% expecting evidence to be found of life elsewhere in the universe and 3% forecasting that contact would be made with aliens.

Curiously, despite the abolition in 2008 of the ancient common law offences of blasphemy and blasphemous libel in England and Wales, 20% of adults stated that blasphemy is always morally wrong and an additional 26% usually so. The combined figure reached 60% for the over-55s. 28% found blasphemy to be morally acceptable, while 15% said that it depended upon the circumstances and 12% had no views.

An equally surprising 20% claimed that the Church of England was very important in defining Britishness and a further 29% said that it was fairly important in this respect. The aggregate of 49% was highest among women, the over-55s and in England (just 18% of Scots agreed that the Anglican establishment was a key facet of Britishness).

Among a list of ten potential embodiments of the British way of life, tolerance of all religious faiths came eighth (at 37%, rising to 47% in multicultural London) and St Paul’s Cathedral bottom (at 30%, predictably ranging from 10% of Scots to 45% of Londoners).

Staying with inter-faith matters, 71% of Britons agreed with the proposition that, after the 9/11 attacks, there is now a real clash of cultures between Islam and the West, which continues to cause trouble. This view was most strongly held by men (75%), the over-55s (82%) and residents of northern England (76%). 12% dismissed such a clash as a myth and 17% gave other or no answers.

Following on, 57% agreed that Islamic groups were more likely than other faiths to support violence on religious grounds, and this was especially true of men (66%) and the over-55s (69%). 15% disagreed and 19% were neutral. On the other hand, 68% accepted that all religious communities have some extremists who support violence against others, 15% dissenting.

Similarly, 62% identified Islamist extremism as a major international threat to Britain and a further 26% a minor threat. A mere 2% regarded it as no threat at all, including 5% of the 18-34s and 7% of Scots. 9% did not know what to think.

Doubtless from the same motivation, 46% were unwilling to contemplate an Afghan-Islamic state as a solution to the Afghanistan conflict, although the question-wording for this item might be described as somewhat leading. Just 18% backed the option, with 37% undecided.

In general, 77% contended that ‘religion was a private matter and had no place in politics’.

The YouGov@Cambridge archive site also contains data from a Royal Wedding poll, undertaken on 26 and 27 April 2011 among 2,666 adults aged 18 and over. This posed one question of interest to BRIN: should the monarch continue to be Supreme Governor of the Church of England?

47% argued that the monarch should remain as head of the Established Church, with 29% against and 25% undecided. There was a simple majority in favour of the status quo among all demographic sub-groups except for the Scots, who voted 35% to 30% for abolition of the Supreme Governorship.

This post is almost entirely derived from the full computer tabulations in the online archive. Some headlines, with commentary by YouGov, also appear in the Royal Wedding Special report, published on 28 April and available at:

http://www.yougov.polis.cam.ac.uk/sites/yougov.polis.cam.ac.uk/files/YouGov_Royal_Wedding_Dossier.pdf

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Burka Britain

Two-thirds of Britons would like to see the burka banned in this country, notwithstanding the fact that the Home Secretary has indicated that the Government has no intention of moving in the same direction as France, where a law prohibiting the burka, niqab and other face-coverings being worn in public came into force this week.

This finding comes from an online poll by YouGov conducted on 11 and 12 April 2011 among a representative sample of 2,258 adults aged 18 and over. The full results have been posted at:

http://today.yougov.co.uk/sites/today.yougov.co.uk/files/yg-archives-pol-yougov-burqa-130411.pdf

Following an introductory explanation of what a burka is, respondents were asked whether they thought the garment should be banned in Britain. 40% agreed strongly that it should be and a further 26% agreed. The combined percentage of 66% compared with 67% on 14-15 July 2010, when YouGov first asked the question. 27% disagreed with a ban, while 7% expressed no opinion.

Dissentients were most likely to be found among the young (42% for the 18-24s, 37% for the 25-39s) and Liberal Democrat voters (39%). Proponents of the ban were concentrated among the over-60s (79%) and Conservative voters (77%). These age and party political differentials are characteristic of most British polls measuring attitudes to Islam and Muslims.

Those opposed to the burka often see it as a barrier to integration and a coercion of women, but those resisting a ban worry that such legislative action would be an infringement of human rights.

Several surveys on the topic were conducted last year, in addition to the first YouGov study. See our posts at:

http://www.brin.ac.uk/news/?p=45 (1 February 2010)

http://www.brin.ac.uk/news/?p=92 (3 March 2010)

http://www.brin.ac.uk/news/?p=378 (9 July 2010)

http://www.brin.ac.uk/news/?p=397 (22 July 2010)

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Libya and Radical Islam

Among the public’s many concerns about the current crisis in Libya is a fear that it may result in the country falling under the influence of radical Islam.

That is one of the findings from a YouGov poll conducted online for The Sunday Times between 31 March and 1 April 2011 among a representative sample of 2,226 Britons aged 18 and over. The relevant data will be found on page 9 of the tables available at:

http://today.yougov.co.uk/sites/today.yougov.co.uk/files/yg-archives-pol-st-results-01-030411.pdf

11% of adults said that they were very worried and a further 34% fairly worried about Libya coming under radical Islamic influence. The combined figure of 45% rose to 61% among the over-60s, 52% in northern England, 51% in Scotland, and 51% for electors who had voted Conservative at the 2010 general election.

A mere 8% were not worried at all about Libya falling under the influence of radical Islam, the highest proportion being among the under-40s (11%). 27% said that they were not very worried, while 20% expressed no opinion.

These concerns may be partly informed by the recent suggestion made by a senior NATO commander that al-Qaeda may be involved in the Libyan rebellion against Colonel Gaddafi, an assertion long made by Gaddafi himself.

The results of this latest YouGov poll have echoes in the organization’s earlier survey on 3-4 February, when the focus was on the campaign (eventually successful) to dislodge President Mubarak from power in Egypt.

At that time, 59% of Britons were very or fairly worried about the rise of radical Islam in the Middle East, with just 7% not worried at all. See our earlier post at: http://www.brin.ac.uk/news/?p=871

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Monarchical Religion

The Church of England, the product of the sixteenth-century Reformation, remains the state church in England, notwithstanding successive attempts to disestablish it during the past two centuries.

These campaigns were initially led by militant Dissenters promulgating the gospel of ‘voluntaryism’, but latterly have involved secularists (doubting the official church’s compatibility with modern multi-faith, no-faith and multi-cultural society) and some Anglicans (objecting to establishment on theological and practical grounds).

Establishment is inextricably linked with the monarchy in several key respects, not least in that the reigning monarch is Supreme Governor of the Church of England and the Act of Settlement 1701 bars Roman Catholics, or persons married to a Catholic, acceding to the throne.

Both these facets of establishment were included in a recent poll undertaken by YouGov for Prospect magazine on the future of the monarchy, in the run-up to Queen Elizabeth II’s 85th birthday next month. The survey was conducted online on 1 and 2 February 2011 among a representative sample of 2,409 Britons aged 18 and over.

An article by Peter Kellner about the poll appears on p. 33 of the latest issue (No. 181, April 2011) of Prospect, as part of a wider feature (pp. 28-37) on ‘What’s the Point of the Monarchy?’ The data tabulations are available at:

http://today.yougov.co.uk/sites/today.yougov.co.uk/files/yg-archives-pol-prospect-monarchy-240311.pdf

Asked whether the monarch should continue as the head of the Church of England, 56% replied in the affirmative, with 30% wanting the arrangement to cease and 13% uncertain what to think (rising to 24% among the 18-24s).

Advocates of the status quo were particularly numerous among Conservative voters (70%), reminding us of the traditional description of the Church of England as the ‘Tory Party at prayer’.

Supporters of abolition of the Supreme Governorship were found by YouGov to be strongest in Scotland (52%), even though the Church of England is obviously not established there. The next highest proportion (43%) was for Liberal Democrat voters, whose official party policy is to implement disestablishment.

The discovery that a slim majority wants to retain the monarch’s headship of the Church is in line with other recent polls on the subject, and represents an increase on the position for a good part of the 1990s when the adultery and divorce of Prince Charles led many to wonder whether he was a suitable Supreme Governor in waiting and even to query the principle of royal headship of the Church.

Yet this support for monarchical leadership of the Church did not translate into endorsement of the Act of Settlement. Indeed, 71% of YouGov’s respondents favoured repeal of the prohibition on the monarch marrying a Roman Catholic. 16% wanted the ban to stay, while 13% expressed no opinion.

Liberal Democrats (84%) and Scots (77%) led the reform lobby, with Conservatives (22%) being most resistant to changing the law.

It should be noted that the question did not enquire explicitly about whether the monarch should be allowed to be a Roman Catholic him/herself, only whether he/she should be free to marry a Roman Catholic. However, other polls during the past decade appear to demonstrate a growing public desire for ending that prohibition, also.

BRIN readers wishing to learn more about British public opinion on establishment during the past half-century may be interested in a forthcoming article in Implicit Religion by Clive Field: ‘“A Quaint and Dangerous Anachronism”? Who Supports the (Dis)Establishment of the Church of England?’ This is provisionally scheduled for publication this September in Vol. 14, No. 3 of the journal.

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Media Portrayal of Groups

The ways in which the media portray groups has been in the news again recently, following the suspension by All3Media of Brian True-May, the producer of Midsomer Murders on ITV, for remarks he made in a Radio Times interview.

True-May referred to the programme series, which has an all-white cast, as ‘the last bastion of Englishness’ and argued that part of its appeal was the absence of ethnic minorities from the story-lines. He added that he wanted to keep it that way.

True-May’s suspension created a backlash about political correctness in some sections of the media. He was subsequently reinstated following an apology but is apparently stepping down from the programme at the end of its current run.

The Sun took the opportunity presented by the row to commission YouGov to undertake an online poll of 2,666 Britons aged 18 and over to ask, more generally, whether different groups were normally fairly or unfairly portrayed in the media. Fieldwork took place on 15 and 16 March, and the data tables are available at:

http://today.yougov.co.uk/sites/today.yougov.co.uk/files/yg-archives-pol-sun-mediarep-160311.pdf

Christians and Muslims were two of the groups on the list of seventeen, although (strangely) ethnic minorities were not a separate category.

39% of adults said that Christians were portrayed fairly, 12% unfairly positively, 27% unfairly negatively, with 22% unsure. Those thinking them depicted unfairly negatively were disproportionately found among Conservative voters (37%) and the over-60s (35%). The 18-24s had the highest proportion considering them to be portrayed unfairly positively (18%).

30% of respondents believed that Muslims were portrayed fairly in the media, 15% unfairly positively, 34% unfairly negatively, with 20% uncertain. Liberal Democrats (50%), Scots (49%) and the 18-24s (45%) were most likely to say that Muslims received unfairly negative coverage.

YouGov calculated a net score for each group, by subtracting the unfairly negative figure from the unfairly positive. On this basis, Christians and Muslims were not far apart, -15 and -19 respectively.

Interestingly, only three of the seventeen groups scraped in with positive scores: businessmen (+6), bankers (+2), and Conservative supporters (0).

Minus scores which were better than for both Christians and Muslims were recorded by Labour supporters (-3), middle class people (-3), people from the USA (-5), women (-5), gays/lesbians/bisexuals (-5), disabled people (-13), and transsexuals (-14).

Immigrants (-17) fared worse than Christians but better than Muslims. Gypsies and travellers scored the same as Muslims. Three groups were lower than Christians and Muslims: the elderly (-21), working class people (-23), and the young (-36).

An alternative ranking of the groups according to the number thinking they were fairly portrayed in the media had a high of 53% for women and a low of 26% for transsexuals. Christians came ninth equal and Muslims fourteenth on this ordering.

If these results are taken as some kind of proxy measure of religious discrimination, then clearly there is some, albeit age prejudice on the part of the media is seen to be an even more serious problem.

There have been a fair number of content-based analyses of religion in the media over recent years. Some have been generic, such as Kim Knott’s longitudinal study of newspaper and television representations. Others have focused particularly on Muslims in the media, including the work of Elizabeth Poole and John Richardson.

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Census Question Under Fire

There are just six days to go before UK residents have to complete the household and individual questionnaire for the decennial population census.

But humanists are still simultaneously maintaining their attack on the voluntary question on religion while paradoxically encouraging people to answer it, ideally (from the humanist perspective) by registering as of no religion.

In a press release on 20 March the British Humanist Association (BHA) described the census question as ‘highly misleading’ and ‘fatally flawed for its intended purpose of planning public services’. The BHA’s evidence for this claim comes from new opinion polls conducted online by YouGov in England and Wales and in Scotland.

The English and Welsh survey, commissioned by the BHA, was undertaken on 9-11 March 2011 among a representative sample of 1,896 adults aged 18 and over. The Scottish poll was sponsored by the Humanist Society of Scotland and conducted on 10-14 January 2011 among 2,007 adults.

In England and Wales, when asked the census question ‘What is your religion?’, 61% ticked a religious box and 39% declared themselves to be of no religion. However, when asked ‘Are you religious?’, just 29% said ‘yes’ and 65% ‘no’, ‘meaning over half of those whom the census would count as having a religion said they were not religious’.

Responses varied somewhat according to demographics, most notably by age. Whereas 56% of 18-24s had no religion, the proportion fell steadily throughout the age cohorts, to stand at 25% among the over-55s. Similarly, while 70-73% of the three under-45 cohorts stated that they were not religious, this was the case with 68% of those aged 45-54 and 56% of the over-55s.

Marital status also appeared to make a difference, although this pattern doubtless conceals an age-related effect. The number professing no religion was highest among the never married (53%) and those living as married (52%). It was substantially lower among those who were currently married or in a civil partnership (31%) or had formerly been, 27% among the separated or divorced and 25% with the widowed.

The 53% of the English and Welsh sample who professed to be Christian were additionally asked: ‘Do you believe that Jesus Christ was a real person who died and came back to life and was the son of God?’ Fewer than half (48%) said that they did so believe, with 27% disbelieving and 25% unsure, BHA’s unspoken point presumably being that many so-called Christians have rather a shallow or unconventional faith.

It is also a generally inactive faith, in terms of attendance at a place of worship for religious reasons. Only 15% of the entire sample claimed to have been within the past month, with a further 16% going within the past year, 43% more than a year ago and 20% never. The never category was largest among the 18-24s (28%), with 32% for full-time students.

In Scotland, one-half of the sample was asked the Scottish census question: ‘What religion, religious denomination or body do you belong to?’ In reply, 56% of Scots professed some affiliation (with write-in responses available) and 42% none.

The other Scottish half-sample was initially asked: ‘Are you religious?’ 35% said that they were and 56% that they were not, with 8% uncertain. Those who answered that they were religious or who did not know were then asked: ‘Which religion do you belong to?’ At this point, 22% said that they did not belong to any organized religion.

The BHA press release and links to the data tables for both England and Wales and Scotland will be found at:

http://www.humanism.org.uk/news/view/771

These statistics serve to illustrate what is already generally well-known, that surveys on religious (and – indeed – all other) topics are inevitably informed or perhaps even shaped by question-wording.

The Office for National Statistics, which is overseeing the census, is fully aware of the sensitivities and ambiguities of investigating religion. It has gone to some considerable lengths to research and trial the merits of alternative wordings during its census preparations.

For fuller information about these deliberations and experimentation, see the October 2009 ONS report on Final Recommended Questions for the 2011 Census in England and Wales: Religion, which is available on the ONS website.

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Poppy-Burning

82% of the public support the prosecution of Emdadur Choudhury, the Muslims against Crusades (MAC) protestor who was this week convicted at Woolwich Crown Court of a public order offence for his ‘calculated and deliberate’ insult to Britain’s war dead by burning two large plastic poppies near the Royal Albert Hall on 11 November 2010.

That is the finding of a YouGov poll conducted online on 8 and 9 March among a representative sample of 2,436 British adults aged 18 and over. The data table is available at:

http://today.yougov.co.uk/sites/today.yougov.co.uk/files/YG-Archives-YG-PoppyBurning-090311.pdf

The proportion in favour of Choudhury’s prosecution peaked at 90% among Conservative voters and 91% of the over-60s. Critics of the prosecution averaged 10% but stood at 14% for Liberal Democrats and 13% for Londoners. 9% expressed no opinion.

YouGov did not ask any questions about the size of the fine imposed on Choudhury, just £50, nor about his apparent lack of remorse for the incident, both matters which have been the subject of negative coverage in the media. Another member of MAC, Mohammad Haque, was acquitted over his part in the same demonstration.

Thinking about protests more generally, 67% of YouGov’s sample said that it was unacceptable for extremists to make offensive or provocative protests that risk inflaming racial and religious tensions, and that it was appropriate for them to be prosecuted. 25% upheld the right to peaceful protest even if the views were extreme and liable to offend.

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Attitudes towards Britain’s Involvement in the Afghanistan Conflict by Religious Affiliation

by Ben Clements

As well as looking at behaviour and attitudes in relation to the 2010 general election (participation, method of voting, party voted for, etc.), the EMBES survey contains a wealth of attitudinal data relating to long-standing or more recent political issues in Britain. One of these is the involvement of British military forces in the conflict in Afghanistan, which has been on-going since late-2001.

It clearly represents one of major foreign policy issues of recent times, even though it was never as politically controversial, both here and on the international stage, as was the invasion of Iraq in 2003, which engendered divisions with and between the political parties and in wider society. This post reports attitudes towards Britain’s involvement in the Afghanistan war by religious affiliation. It can be read in conjunction with this previous research note on attitudes towards the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan by religious affiliation, using data from the British Election Study 2009/10 internet panel survey, which sampled the wider British population.

As with my previous posts this week covering the EMBES (see here and here), the data reported below are based on questions answered as part of the self-completion section (involving 2,787 respondents overall). The EMBES carried seven questions relating to various aspects of Britain’s participation in the war in Afghanistan, one of which is not included here since it asked explicitly about current perceptions of how the war was going. One question asks about approval or disapproval of Britain’s role in the conflict (Table 1) and another about the longer-term prospects of defeating the Taliban (Table 2). The remaining four questions comprise a battery of related items (shown in Tables 3-6). These ask about positive and negative aspects of the conflict.

Table 1 also has two subsidiary tables: Table 1a, which provides responses by Christian denomination; and Table 1b, which gives responses by Muslin tradition. Question wording is provided under each table. To aid presentation of the data in tabular format, the original response options have been collapsed into broader categories (not applicable for Table 3).

Please note that percentages are based on weighted data and sum down each column (except for Table 1a, which sums across the rows). The final column in each table provides the unweighted number of cases. Table 2 provides weighted mean scores for a question using a scale ranging from 0 through to 10 (unweighted cases are reported in the bottom row). As before, the religious affiliation categories are: No religion, Christian, Hindu, Muslim, Sikh and Other. This represents a minor modification of the religious affiliation variable available in the EMBES dataset. The religious affiliation categories are based on two EMBES questions:

‘Do you regard yourself as belonging to any particular religion?’

IF YES:

‘Which one?’

Tables 1a and 1b are based on follow-up questions asking about the particular denomination or tradition belonged to if a respondent says that they are Christian or Muslim. Some interesting differences in opinion are noted below.

Tables 1, 1a and 1b
There are clear differences in levels of approval and disapproval of Britain’s involvement in Afghanistan by religious affiliation, as shown in Table 1. Muslims are least likely to approve (7.6 per cent), with Hindus and Sikhs showing the higher levels of support (26.5 per cent for both groups). Muslims show the highest level of disapproval (at 63.1 per cent) followed by those of no religion (at 51.9 per cent). Also, note that the categories vary somewhat in the proportions offering no opinion (from 8 per cent for those of no religion to nearly a fifth of Hindus).

Table 1a, showing responses by Christian denomination, shows the highest levels of approval are expressed by Anglicans, members of Pentecostal churches and those in the ‘other’ Christian category (in the 25-30 per cent range). The highest levels of disapproval reach around 60 per cent, expressed by Orthodox Christians and (Seventh Day) Adventists. Note that the Orthodox category consists of very few cases. Again, the proportions offering no opinion vary across the categories (from 5 per cent to over 18 per cent).

In Table 1b, showing responses by Muslim tradition, Sunni Muslims and those who do not belong to a particular tradition express the highest levels of disapproval (around 64-5 per cent) compared to 44 per cent for Shi’a Muslims and 50 per cent for those belonging to other traditions. The vast majority of Muslims in Afghanistan practice Sunni Islam. Note that the Shi’a and ‘other’ categories are both based on relatively small numbers of respondents. In the EMBES survey, 83.4 per cent of those who said they were Muslim reported belonging to the Sunni tradition in the follow-up question.

 

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Embes-Afghan-2

Embes-Afghan-3

Table 2
The question on which the figures in Table 2 are based asked about longer-term assessment of whether the Taliban in Afghanistan can be defeated. Responses were provided using a 0 to 10 scale in the EMBES survey questionnaire, where a score of 0 represents the most pessimistic evaluation and a score of 10 would indicate the most optimistic evaluation. In the EMBES dataset, the scale ranges from 1 to 11; so in Table 2, a score of 1 represents the most pessimistic evaluation, and a score of 11 the most optimistic assessment. There are differences in the mean scores by religious affiliation category. Interestingly, those of no religion are most pessimistic of defeating the Taliban over the longer-term (mean score of 3.8), followed by Muslims (mean score of 4.1). Those most optimistic in relative terms are Hindus (at 5.5), followed by Christians (4.8). Sikhs and those in the ‘other’ category share a mean score of 4.6. Standard deviations are provided as well.

Embes-Afghan-4

Tables 3-6
Tables 3 to 6 report attitudes towards a related series of questions, two of which asked about positive aspects of Britain’s participation in the war in Afghanistan (Tables 3 and 5), and two of which asked about negative implications of Britain’s involvement (Tables 4 and 6). The general picture is that, across categories, respondents are more likely to disagree with the positive aspects and more likely to agree with the negative implications. Again, however, there are clear differences in views by religious affiliation categories.

In Table 3, Muslims and those belonging to other traditions are least likely to agree that Britain will benefit in the long term from its involvement (at 9.4 per cent in both cases). For all other categories, nearly a fifth of respondents express agreement with this question. In Table 4, it is Christians and Sikhs who are most likely to agree that Britain’s involvement threatens their safety and that of their families. In Table 5, Hindus and Sikhs are most likely to concur that is a moral case for British involvement in Afghanistan, with Muslims least likely to express agreement with this statement (just 15.2 per cent). In Table 6, there were high levels of agreement with the statement about the war seriously damaging British interests around the globe. Majorities of Muslims, Sikhs and those of another religion agreed. Apart from members of some other religion, less than a fifth in each category disagreed. Across Tables 3-6 there is considerable variation in the proportions in each category refusing to answer or offering a ‘don’t know’ response (combined rather than shown separately). The highest proportions tend to be found amongst Muslims and Hindus (usually in the range of 20-25 per cent).

Embes-Afghan-5

Embes-Afghan-6

Embes-Afghan-7

Embes-Afghan-8

Finally, BRIN readers who are interested more generally in looking at public opinion in Britain and elsewhere towards the war in Afghanistan are directed towards the links for relevant data held by the following opinion poll organisations:

Angus Reid data

Gallup

Ipsos MORI

YouGov data

Dr Ben Clements
Department of Politics and International Relations, University of Leicester

bc101 @ leicester.ac.uk

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Lent

It will be Ash Wednesday on 9 March, the first day of Lent in the Christian calendar, the forty-day period of fasting and penance leading up to Easter, and replicating Jesus Christ’s sacrifice and withdrawal into the desert prior to his crucifixion.

The official observance of Lent has been somewhat relaxed by the Christian Churches during the later twentieth century, but the popular tradition of giving something up for Lent is apparently far from extinguished.

This rather surprising resilience of Lenten abstinence is seemingly confirmed in a newly-released YouGov poll, conducted online between 25 and 28 February 2011 among 2,055 Britons aged 18 and over. The data tables will be found at:

http://today.yougov.co.uk/sites/today.yougov.co.uk/files/YG-Archives-Pol-YouGov-Pancakes-070311_1.pdf

Although 73% of respondents were not planning to give anything up for Lent this year, the inference is that the other 27% intended to forego something.

Abstainers were particularly likely to be found among adults with children in the household (32%), residents of the Midlands (32%), women (31%), and Londoners (31%).

Least abstemious were the Scots, only 21% of whom were going to give something up, followed by the Welsh (23%), men (24%), and the over-55s (24%).

YouGov provided no breakdown by religious affiliation, but a survey of professing Roman Catholics by nfp Synergy in 2008 revealed that 31% had given up something for Lent.

Comparative statistics (chronologically) are not easy to come by. However, an abstinence rate of 27% is certainly high in relation to previous Gallup studies: 12% in 1939, 8% in 1993 and 9% in 1996.

A survey for Abbey National in 2002 suggested that one-third expected to forsake a treat during Lent, but the sample was small (only 200 people) and confined to adults aged 18-50.

Were YouGov’s respondents simply being over ‘optimistic’ about their intentions?

Were they drawn into exaggeration by the wording of the question, which some might regard as ‘leading’?

Were they confusing Lenten sacrifice with the personal austerity and belt-tightening now necessary because of the poor state of the economy and public expenditure cuts?

Or is there a genuine revival of Lenten observance, even though most other religious indicators are moving downwards or, occasionally, stabilizing?

Another equally curious and unexpected discovery comes from a survey by Somerfield in 2007 in which 70% of adults chose, from a preset list of options, the answer that Lent commemorated the time which Jesus spent in the wilderness.

Chocolate topped YouGov’s list of proposed sacrifices in 2011 (8%). Then came junk food (7%), sweets (6%), alcohol (6%), smoking (3%), fizzy drinks (3%), swearing (3%), coffee (2%), sugar (2%), tea (1%), all caffeine (1%), and meat (1%). Multiple answers were evidently possible.

Few of these choices reached double figures. 10% of Londoners and adults with children in the household aspired to give up junk food for Lent, but otherwise all the highs were for chocolate, mentioned by 12% of Midlanders, 11% of women, and 10% of those aged 25-34.

Chocolates and sweets topped the list of Lenten sacrifices in the earlier Gallup polls. Meat was a significant forfeit in 1939, but is much less so now.

Ash Wednesday is preceded by Shrove Tuesday, traditionally Pancake Day. 49% of YouGov’s interviewees expected to eat pancakes on that day, and a further 32% said that they might do so.

Pancake refuseniks numbered 19%, including 2% who claimed never to eat pancakes. The proportion was highest among Scots (31%) and then among men and Londoners (25% each).

Of those definitely planning to tuck into pancakes, most were going to indulge on a grand scale. Just 3% thought they would be content with one pancake. 31% had two pancakes in mind, 31% three, 24% four or five, and 9% six or more.

Lemon and sugar was the favourite pancake topping or filling for 65%, followed by maple syrup (27%). 64% preferred sweet pancakes to savoury ones, 10% liked savoury better, and 21% enjoyed both types.

Chapter 16 in Ronald Hutton’s The Stations of the Sun (Oxford University Press, 1996) summarizes the social history of Lent in Britain. The only study of the limited survey evidence is Clive Field, ‘Who’s for Lent?’, Quadrant, March 1998, pp. 2-3.

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The Galliano Affair

Some nasty commercial consequences may be in store for Christian Dior, the iconic fashion, fragrance and jewellery brand, despite its prompt sacking last week of John Galliano, its head fashion designer since 1997, who has recently been exposed as shouting anti-Semitic abuse in a Paris bar and saying ‘I love Hitler’.

15% of British adults who normally buy Dior products say that they intend to boycott them in the light of the controversy over Galliano’s comments, according to a YouGov survey for today’s The Sunday Times. Fieldwork was conducted online on 3-4 March among a sample of 2,413 Britons aged 18 and over. The data tables will be found at:

http://today.yougov.co.uk/sites/today.yougov.co.uk/files/YG-Archives-Pol-ST-results-04-060311.pdf

80% of respondents do not normally purchase Dior merchandise. Of the 20% who do, 3% have been so offended by Galliano’s anti-Semitism that they are inclined to boycott Dior in future, while 12% will not do so and 5% do not know what they will do.

The number of potential boycotters rises to 6% in London and Scotland, equivalent to 23% and 29% respectively of Dior customers there, but otherwise there are no great variations by demographic sub-groups.

The potential commercial fallout might have been even greater were it not for the fact that 52% of Britons regard this as a one-off incident, down to a single designer with personal problems and which does not reflect a more generic issue of racism in the high fashion industry.

However, although just 16% think there is more widespread racism in the industry, far more are inclined to accuse it of other difficulties. 45% consider that dysfunctional and immoral behaviour is endemic throughout the industry, whereas 34% prefer to lay the blame at the door of a few eccentric figures.

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