Ghostly Encounters

Posted on March 5, 2011 by Clive D. Field

Despite huge advances in science and technology, more than 11 million adult Britons claim to have experienced a ghost, according to a newly-released opinion poll commissioned by Professor Richard Wiseman of the University of Hertfordshire, and widely featured in the media during recent days.

The extensive coverage was fuelled by a Press Association report, replete with a ghost map of Britain, which was reproduced by the Daily Mail whose story-line was that ‘ghosts are busting out all over Britain’.

The survey concerned was conducted online by YouGov between 1 and 3 February 2011 among a representative sample of 2,040 Britons aged 18 and over. The data tables are available at: 

http://today.yougov.co.uk/sites/today.yougov.co.uk/files/Results_for_University_of_Hertfordshire_Ghosts_OM_2011_025__03_02_11.pdf

Asked whether they had ever experienced a ghost, 10% of respondents claimed that they had definitely done so and 15% that they had probably had a ghostly encounter. 19% were uncertain, while 57% said that they had probably not (18%) or definitely not (39%) experienced a ghost.

The mean proportion of one-quarter who had definitely or probably experienced a ghost did not vary hugely by demographic sub-groups, but it did reach 31% among the widowed and 30% with women and residents of Yorkshire and the Humber and the East Midlands.

Similarly, the number stating that they had definitely or probably not seen a ghost was above the average for full-time students (70%), men (65%), 18-24s (63%), the never married (61%) and Londoners (61%).

The publicity surrounding the poll suggested that claimed ghost-sightings have doubled in the past twenty years. BRIN’s own trend data – http://www.brin.ac.uk/figures/#ChangingBelief – confirm that belief in and reported encounters with ghosts have drifted upwards over time, although the grey line between definite and possible sightings does introduce an element of statistical ambiguity.

The current YouGov poll is broadly in line with the Hereafter Report, published two months ago, which found 22% claiming to have seen a ghost or to have felt the presence of a spirit. See http://www.brin.ac.uk/news/?p=848

Wiseman himself professes to be ‘extremely sceptical about the existence of ghosts’. He is quoted in the media as inclining to attribute increased sightings to the influence of television ghost shows, such as Most Haunted and Ghost Hunters, rather than to genuine psychic activity. He also cites as a possible contributory cause the decline in traditional religious beliefs.

In his brand new book from Macmillan, Paranormality: why we see what isn’t there, Wiseman argues that ghostly experiences can be traced to a variety of factors, including suggestion, light effects, low-frequency sound, waking dreams, and anxiety. A particular phenomenon is the state of ‘hypervigilance’ felt by people who visit locations reputed to be haunted.  

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Feeling Lucky

Posted on February 25, 2011 by Clive D. Field

Luck could be said to form part of the religious continuum (well, just about). It is accordingly defined in Wikipedia as ‘good or bad fortune in life caused by accident or chance, and attributed by some to reasons of faith or superstition, which happens beyond a person’s control’.

In recent years the phenomenon of luck has been most studied in this country by Professor Richard Wiseman, a professional magician turned psychologist who works at the University of Hertfordshire. He is the author of such best-selling books as The Luck Factor: Change Your Luck, and Change Your Life (London: Century, 2002) and The Little Book of Luck (London: Arrow, 2004).

Luck has mainly found its way into surveys of public opinion in terms of questions about belief in specific objects or situations as being inherently lucky or unlucky, usually within the broader context of superstition. For example, some trend data on belief in lucky charms or mascots will be found on the BRIN website at:

http://www.brin.ac.uk/figures/documents/luckycharmbelief.xls

Now YouGov has turned its attention to quantifying people’s perceptions of ‘luckiness’, in a poll of 1,975 Britons aged 18 and over interviewed online on 22 and 23 February 2011. The table of results is available at:

http://today.yougov.co.uk/sites/today.yougov.co.uk/files/YG-Archives-Life-YouGov-Lucky-230211.pdf

34% of respondents considered themselves to be lucky and 21% unlucky, with the biggest single category (43%) thinking they were neither lucky nor unlucky. A mere 2% had no views on the matter, an incredibly low proportion of don’t knows in comparison to most religion-related surveys.

All demographic groups showed a margin of the lucky over the unlucky, but the gap varied in size. It was at its greatest (+28%) among the over-60s and Liberal Democrat voters, and at its narrowest among those aged 40-59 (+4%), northerners (+4%) and Scots (+5%).

Aggregate believers in luckiness or unluckiness were 55%, rising to 62% among the 18-24s, for whom good or bad luck seems almost to be a kind of surrogate faith.

For this reason, the number unwilling to categorize themselves as either lucky or unlucky dipped to 33% among the 18-24s, but for all other groups it fluctuated within a fairly tight range of 39% to 47%.

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Civil Partnerships

Posted on February 21, 2011 by Clive D. Field

According to a new YouGov poll, public opinion is divided about the Coalition Government’s plans, announced by the Equalities Office on 17 February, to permit civil partnerships in England and Wales to be celebrated in religious buildings, even though ‘no religious group will be forced to host a civil partnership registration’.

Government’s goal would be achieved through implementation of Section 202 of the Equality Act 2010, which revokes the explicit ban on holding civil partnership registrations in religious premises that stems from the Approved Premises (Marriage and Civil Partnership) Regulations 2005. The Section is not yet in force.

The YouGov survey was undertaken online for The Sunday Times on 17 and 18 February 2011, among a representative sample of 2,464 adult Britons aged 18 and over. The results of the study will be found on page 10 of the tables at:

http://today.yougov.co.uk/sites/today.yougov.co.uk/files/YG-Archives-Pol-ST-results-18-200211.pdf

Asked whether it should be legal for same-sex couples to hold their civil partnership ceremonies in places of worship, 42% agreed (similar to the 41% approving of same-sex marriage, in a different question), 43% disagreed, and 16% expressed no opinion.

Support for the Government’s proposal was notably strong among Liberal Democrat voters (50%) and those aged 25-39 (53%), presumably the age group most likely to be directly affected.

Opposition peaked at 60% among the over-60s and at 54% among Conservative voters, despite the Conservative Party being the major partner in the Coalition Government which is putting forward the idea.

Men were also 10 points more hostile to the plan than women, and manual workers less in favour than non-manuals. Regional differences were not marked. In Scotland, which is not affected (since this is a devolved matter), the split was 42% versus 41%.

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Will Jesus Christ Return to Earth?

Posted on February 9, 2011 by Clive D. Field

Only 3% of Britons believe that Jesus Christ will return to earth before 2050, according to a YouGov poll reissued in connection with the general release in the UK this Friday of the film Never Let Me Go, which tackles the controversial topic of cloning. The prophecy of His return is otherwise known as the Second Coming, Second Advent or Parousia.

The survey was actually conducted on 12-13 August 2010, among a representative sample of 1,865 adults aged 18 and over, interviewed online. Respondents were shown a random selection of 20 predictions of things which might happen in the next 40 years, from a total list of 40 scenarios. The data tables are available at:

http://today.yougov.co.uk/sites/today.yougov.co.uk/files/YG-Archives-Life-LikelyToHappen-130810.pdf

The Second Coming of Christ was the prediction thought to be least likely to come true, with 84% saying that it would probably or definitely not happen by 2050 and 13% uncertain. The 3% of people confident that Jesus would return to earth in this timeframe ranged from 1% in Scotland to 5% in London and Southern England.

The next most implausible scenarios were that: most car owners would own flying cars within 40 years, believed by 8%; an asteroid would hit earth, causing massive loss of life (12%); and the death penalty would be reintroduced into Britain (15%).

At the other end of the spectrum, three-quarters or more were convinced that, by 2050, the world would face an energy crisis, the earth would get warmer, a woman would become prime minister, and most Britons would have to work into their 70s before retiring.

The only comparator survey which I can find of the general population of Great Britain was conducted by Gallup in November 1999. Asked whether Christ would return to earth one day for a Second Coming, 25% agreed that He would, including 30% of women and of those aged 45-64, 32% of semi-skilled and unskilled manual workers, and 37% of the over-65s.

In the United States, by contrast, 41% of adults thought that Christ definitely or probably would return to earth before 2050, according to a Pew Research Center and Smithsonian magazine study in April 2010, with 46% certain He would not and 13% expressing no views.

An earlier Pew poll in July 2006 found that 79% of American Christians believed in the Second Coming, albeit only 20% that He would return to earth in their lifetime.

One other prediction of potential interest to BRIN readers was included in last August’s YouGov investigation. Just 15% considered it likely that we would make contact with alien life by 2050, 71% saying that it definitely or probably would not happen. Men (20%) and Liberal Democrat voters (25%) were most open to the possibility.

At the same time, 47% thought there was a chance that we would discover evidence of life elsewhere in the universe during the next 40 years.

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Inter-Faith Adoption

Posted on February 8, 2011 by Clive D. Field

Inter-faith adoption of children is acceptable to two-thirds of Britons, according to a YouGov poll released today. 2,051 adults aged 18 and over were interviewed online on 2-3 February 2011. The results are available at:

http://today.yougov.co.uk/sites/today.yougov.co.uk/files/YG-Archives-Life-YouGov-Adoption-080211.pdf

Asked whether, assuming they were well-qualified in all other ways, adoption by a couple of a different religion to the child being adopted should be allowed, 65% of respondents said yes and 14% no, with 21% unsure.

The proportion in favour of adoption under such circumstances was especially high (73%) in the case of those aged 18-24 and Scottish residents. It was lowest among the over-60s (59%), 17% of whom were opposed, the same figure as for those who voted Conservative at the 2010 general election.

Interviewees were more comfortable about adoption by a couple of a different religion to the child than by people over the age of 60 (16%), smokers (44%), people over the age of 50 (46%), gays and lesbians (53%), single persons (53%), and those on very low incomes (53%). But support was less than for adoption by unmarried couples (73%) and couples from a different racial background to the child being adopted (77%).

The number negative about inter-faith adoption was the smallest for the nine adoption scenarios apart from adoption by a couple of a child from a different racial background, which was only 11%. Opposition was strongest (64%) to adoption by people over the age of 60.

The results partly serve as a proxy for a fair degree of racial and religious tolerance in Britain but to the persistence of some other social prejudices. However, one suspects that the findings may have differed somewhat had questioning been about adoption by members of specific religious groups.

It should be noted that the poll did not directly touch upon one of the adoption issues which has been making serious running in recent years, the sensitivities of some persons of faith about adoption by homosexual couples, and about the expectation on other adopting couples to lack bias against homosexuality, in the face of the requirements of equality legislation.

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Radical Islam in the Middle East

Posted on February 6, 2011 by Clive D. Field

Recent events in Egypt, with pro-democracy protesters trying to dislodge President Hosni Mubarak from power, have made almost three in five Britons worry that more countries in the Middle East will fall under the influence of radical Islam.

That is the headline finding from a YouGov poll for today’s Sunday Times in which 2,283 adults aged 18 and over were interviewed online on 3 and 4 February. The full results can be viewed at:

http://today.yougov.co.uk/sites/today.yougov.co.uk/files/YG-Archives-Pol-ST-results-04-060211.pdf

17% of respondents said that they were very and 42% fairly worried about the rise of radical Islam in the Middle East. 21% were not very worried and just 7% not worried at all.

12% expressed no opinion, increasing to 17% among women and the under-40s, the groups traditionally least likely to follow this sort of news coverage.

The proportion anxious about radical Islam climbed steadily with age, from 41% among the 18-24s to 75% among the over-60s. It was a fair bit higher among Conservative voters (67%) than Labourites or Liberal Democrats. It was marginally more among men than women, manual than non-manual workers, and outside London.

This pattern of demographics tracks British attitudes to Islam and Muslims more generally, suggesting that the replies to this poll about Egyptian developments were being firmly set within a framework of domestic Islamophobia.

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Perceptions of Discrimination

Posted on January 19, 2011 by Clive D. Field

Today’s news includes a report that two devout Christians running a private hotel in Cornwall have been found to be in breach of the Equality Act (Sexual Orientation) Regulations 2007 for refusing to allow a gay couple to share a double room on their premises. The couple has been awarded damages against the hotel owners.

The fact that a Christian husband and wife seeking to uphold, as they saw it, a traditional Christian view of marriage have committed an act of direct discrimination against two homosexuals in a civil partnership will doubtless be seized upon by some Christians as further proof that the legal odds are stacked against Christians.

But does the general public agree with this reading of events? Before Christmas we reported on a ComRes poll for Christian Concern on the topic (http://www.brin.ac.uk/news/?p=804). This probed attitudes to the rights of Christians, but largely in isolation from those of other sections of society.

Now YouGov has undertaken another poll for The Sun which provides a broader, more comparative context. The 1,884 respondents, adult Britons aged 18 and over interviewed online on 17 and 18 January, were asked to say how far they felt each of sixteen groups (four of them religious) was unfairly discriminated against in Britain.

10% said that Christians suffered a lot of discrimination, rising to 12% among men, the over-60s and Conservative voters. A further 18% thought they suffered some discrimination (including 24% of Conservatives and 22% of over-60s), 29 per cent a little, 34% not at all, while 10% had no clear opinion.

The proportion holding that Christians suffered a lot of discrimination was higher than those saying the same about Jews (5%) and atheists (2%), although it was less than for Muslims (18% saying that they experienced a lot of discrimination, peaking at 29% among the 18-24s).

Only 17% of the sample claimed that Muslims were not discriminated against at all, which was 7% less than in the case of Jews, 17% less than for Christians and 38% less than for atheists.

In fact, 55% were of the view that atheists suffered absolutely no discrimination, the only one of the sixteen groups for which an absolute majority took this line. This figure rose to 62% with Conservatives and 60% with over-60s and Scots.

If we combine the categories of groups perceived to suffer a lot of discrimination and to suffer some discrimination, then the following rank order emerges:

  1. Gypsies and travellers  –  60%
  2. Immigrants  –  54%
  3. Transsexuals  –  53%
  4. Muslims  –  50%
  5. Elderly people  –  45%
  6. Asian people  –  44%
  7. Gays and lesbians  –  43%
  8. Black people  –  41%
  9. White people  –  32%
  10. Working class people  –  31%
  11. Women  –  29%
  12. Christians  –  28%
  13. Jews  –  26%
  14. People with ginger hair  –  25%
  15. People with regional accents  –  17%
  16. Atheists  –  10%

The survey therefore appears to confirm the findings from other research that Muslims are the religious group suffering greatest discrimination. Despite a millennium of British anti-Semitism, and contrary to the impression of some Jewish commentators, Jews seem to fare better than expected and better even than Christians.

It should be remembered, of course, that this was a survey about people’s perceptions of groups which suffer discrimination, and that Christians would have been the largest single religious category of people doing the perceiving. The study was thus analogous to some of the questions in the Government Citizenship Surveys.

It is therefore possible that a different league table might have emerged had the questioning been about either personal experiences of being discriminated against and/or prejudices which individuals hold against particular groups. It would be especially interesting to know how atheists would come out of such an exercise, given that they seem the least disadvantaged of all the groups in this study.

The data tables for this YouGov poll will be found at:

http://today.yougov.co.uk/sites/today.yougov.co.uk/files/YG-Archives-Life-Sun-Discrimination-190111.pdf

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School League Tables

Posted on January 14, 2011 by Clive D. Field

The Government has caused a stir this week with the appearance of school league tables which incorporate its new performance measure of the English Baccalaureate, comprising grade A*-C GCSEs or equivalent passes in five core subjects: English, mathematics, a science, a language and a humanity. Government’s definition of a humanity excludes religious education and other disciplines which are deemed to be ‘easier’.

On behalf of The Sun, YouGov polled online a representative sample of 1,518 Britons aged 18 and over on 11-12 January, asking them which GCSE subjects should count towards a school’s league table position. The results have been published at:

http://today.yougov.co.uk/sites/today.yougov.co.uk/files/YG-Archives-Pol-Sun-LeagueTables-130111.pdf

Religious studies came fifteenth out of twentieth in the list of subjects offered by YouGov, attracting 22% support. This was well behind the front-runners: mathematics (86%), English language (85%), science (79%), English literature (67%), history (66%), geography (64%), modern languages (61%), and information and communication technology (55%). Dance came bottom (with 8%).

Backing for religious studies was lower among men than women, the under-40s than the over-40s, non-manual than manual workers, and Liberal Democrat than Conservative or Labour voters. There was no major regional variation.

Another recent survey, by ComRes for Premier Media on 15-16 December 2010, reported that 30% of the general public wanted religious education to be a core GCSE subject, with 56% opposed and 14% undecided. See http://www.brin.ac.uk/news/?p=817

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Top of the Christmas ‘Pops’

Posted on December 22, 2010 by Clive D. Field

Silent Night is the nation’s favourite Christmas carol, according to a YouGov poll released today. Online interviews took place with 1,162 adult Britons aged 18 and over on 21 and 22 December. The data table is available at:

http://today.yougov.co.uk/sites/today.yougov.co.uk/files/YG-YouGov-Life-Christmas-Carols-221210.pdf

Silent Night took 20% of the overall vote, being especially popular among the over-60s (26%) and Scots (24%). Next came O, Come All Ye Faithful (10%), Away in a Manger (6%), Once in Royal David’s City (5%), and O, Little Town of Bethlehem (5%). Twenty other named carols also made it to the list, and there was a category of other (4%).

Only 10% of respondents said that they did not like any Christmas carols, including 20% of 18-24s and 14% of men and Northerners. This is a sharp fall from the 28% recorded by Gallup in a survey undertaken in December 1996.

Silent Night likewise topped the chart in that Gallup poll (21%), O, Come All Ye Faithful and Away in a Manger then tying in second place (9% each). A survey by NOP two years later, in November 1998, gave Silent Night an even more commanding position (33%).

The original lyrics of Silent Night (Stille Nacht, heilige Nacht) were written in Austria by Father Joseph Mohr in 1816. The carol was first performed in the Nikolaus-Kirche, Oberndorf on 24 December 1818, to a melody composed by Franz Xaver Gruber.

The English translation usually sung today appeared in 1859, and there have also been translations into more than forty other languages. British, French and German troops all sung it in the trenches during the Christmas truce of 1914.

The carol has been recorded by over three hundred artists, but it is probably the version recorded by Bing Crosby in the 1940s, which introduced it to a mass market, that still resonates most with the older generation today.

Whether carols are to your taste or not, all of us here at BRIN send our seasonal greetings and thanks for your encouragement and support during 2010. We shall be back with you again soon.

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Today’s News – (1) ‘Islamic Extremism’, (2) Religion at Christmas

Posted on December 19, 2010 by Clive D. Field

The regular weekly YouGov poll for The Sunday Times, published today, includes questions on a couple of topics which will interest BRIN readers. Interviewing was online on 16 and 17 December, among a representative sample of 1,966 adult Britons aged 18 and over. The data tables are available at:

http://today.yougov.co.uk/sites/today.yougov.co.uk/files/YG-Archives-Pol-ST-results-171210.pdf

‘ISLAMIC EXTREMISM’

On 11 December an Iraqi-born British resident, Taimur Abdulwahab al-Abdaly, blew himself up during a suicide bombing on a busy shopping street in Stockholm. He had been a student at what is now the University of Bedfordshire in 2001-04 and had been told to leave the Luton Islamic Centre in 2007 on account of his radical views, although the mosque authorities did not report him to the police. He and his family lived in the town.

Against this background, YouGov posed a number of questions about so-called ‘Islamic extremism’. 51% of respondents considered that the government was doing insufficient to tackle the problem, including 63% of the over-60s, 60% of Conservative voters, 58% of men, and 57% of Northerners. Those least likely to take this line were young people aged 18-24 (31%) and Liberal Democrats (37%).

A further 22% thought that government was doing all it reasonably could to combat extremism, 10% that it was devoting too much effort to the issue, while 17% expressed no clear opinion.

A similar proportion, 52%, argued that universities should be doing more to combat ‘Islamic extremism’, rising to 68% among Conservative supporters and 65% of the over-60s. 13% believed that universities were doing all they reasonably could, 4% that they were already doing too much in this area, with 30% uncertain (including 38% of 18-24s).

Asked whether the Muslim community in Britain co-operated with the police in combating extremism, 7% believed that most or all British Muslims did so, 40% that many did so with a minority not co-operating, 24% that only a minority co-operated and the majority not, 13% that few or none co-operated, with 16% expressing no opinion.

Thus, 37% alleged that a majority of British Muslims failed to work with the police against extremism. The highest figures were for Conservative voters in the 2010 general election (44%), men (42%), the over-60s (42%), Northerners (42%), and the C2DE social group (40%).

Three-quarters of adults were critical of the directors of the Luton mosque for failing to inform the police of al-Abdaly’s views, the over-60s (82%), Conservatives (79%), and Northerners (78%) most inclining to this position. 12% thought the mosque should not have contacted the police, and 14% were uncertain.

78% of the sample agreed that all extremist preachers (whether Muslim, Christian or from another religion) should be banned from Britain, including 86% of Conservatives and the over-60s. The remaining 22% divided equally between don’t knows and those who did not want extremist preachers excluded.

The general nature of the question was presumably intended to subsume the case of Terry Jones, the American pastor with extremist views against Islam, which has been in the news recently.

CHRISTMAS

19% of Britons said that they would be attending a church service this Christmas, 5% less than in another recent YouGov poll for The Sun (http://www.brin.ac.uk/news/?p=780). This sub-divided between 8% who regularly attended church throughout the year and 11% who did not normally worship but expected to do so over Christmas. 76% said they would not attend church over the festive period, 2% of whom were otherwise regular churchgoers, and 6% were undecided what they would be doing.

The apparent marginality of religion to the public’s Christmas was underlined by another question in which 75% described it as a predominantly commercial event and only 4% as a religious festival. A further 16% said that it was both and 3% neither. The youngest age cohort (18-24) was most likely to say that Christmas was wholly or partly about religion, followed by Liberal Democrats (24%), and the 18-39s, ABC1s, and Scots (23% each).

Finally, respondents were offered a choice of five guests for their Christmas Day meal. 15% elected for the Queen, 11% for Ann Widdecombe (the former Conservative politician, whose profile has been raised by her appearance on Strictly Come Dancing), 10% Matt Cardle (winner of the X Factor), 5% Liz Hurley and Shane Warne (media celebrities who had left their respective partners to start an affair, although some papers today suggest that it is already over), and just 3% the Archbishop of Canterbury. 55% wanted none of these guests at their dining table.

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