Christmas Cards

More than one in three (36%) of us Brits will be sending fewer Christmas cards this year than we did five years ago, new online research from Oxfam reveals today. This equates to 141 million fewer cards in 2010 than in 2005 (882 million, down from 1.02 billion in 2005).

Only 12% of Britons expect to send more Christmas cards this year than five years ago, with 43% sending about the same number. Moreover, while 91% of those aged 55 and over plan to send Christmas cards this year, just 72% of 18-24-year-olds intend to do so. Rather more women (42%) than men (30%) will be sending fewer cards this Christmas.

Saving money (22%), environmental concerns (22%) and postal costs (21%) are cited as the main reasons for sending fewer or no cards this season. But almost one in five (18%) think Christmas cards are no longer an important part of the festival, and 13% of those respondents will send online and email greetings instead.

The survey was conducted by YouGov among a representative online sample of 2,328 Britons aged 18 and over between 29 October and 1 November 2010.

Meanwhile, Oxfam itself reports that sales of its own Christmas cards in its 700 shops and online store are down 14% so far this year. The charity is dependent upon revenue from its cards to the tune of £1 million annually, with 42p in every £1 of sales going to its humanitarian work around the world.

For further detail, see Oxfam’s press release at:

http://www.oxfam.org.uk/applications/blogs/pressoffice/2010/11/26/oxfam-reveals-141-million-fewer-christmas-cards-will-be-sent-this-year/?v=media

Forty years ago, in 1970, according to Gallup, 91% of adults sent Christmas cards to friends and relatives and 9% not. The standard history of the Christmas card is by George Buday, originally published in 1954. Although there were forerunners, the first British card is credited to Henry Cole in 1843.

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Religious Archives

The origins of record-keeping in this country are primarily religious, rather than secular. The state was a remarkably late entrant on the scene. Thus, until well into the nineteenth century, the registration of births, marriages and deaths and the proving of wills was undertaken by Churches, while the earliest population censuses (in England in 1563, 1603 and 1676, and in Scotland in 1755) were all undertaken under ecclesiastical aegis.

Religious archives are, therefore, a rich source of information for the study of all aspects of British history, and not simply those which relate to religion, narrowly defined. Although there have been several partial efforts during the twentieth century to map the religious archival scene, there has never been a holistic survey.

In an attempt to begin to fill the gap, and to improve the coverage of religious archives in the online National Register of Archives (NRA), The National Archives (TNA), the Archives and Records Association and the Religious Archives Group have come together to carry out the Religious Archives Survey, 2010, with principal funding from the Pilgrim Trust.

The survey covered the United Kingdom but deliberately did not extend to the full spectrum of religious archives. There seemed little point in duplicating information which is already held in the NRA, nor in investigating the central, diocesan and parish records of the four branches of the Anglican Communion in the British Isles (and the equivalents in the Roman Catholic Church and the Church of Scotland), whose archiving procedures are well-codified and places of deposit predictable.

By design, the survey concentrated on Christian and non-Christian traditions which have become established during the past half-century, and on other archives which are held privately. Inter-faith and non-faith bodies were also included. Data collection was largely by means of a structured questionnaire posted to 2,689 religious bodies, both official and unofficial, of which 414 (or 15%) were returned completed – a characteristically low response for postal enquiries.

The response rate varied by religious tradition. It was highest for those religious communities which have the longest histories in Britain – Anglican, Catholic, Free Church and Jewish. It was poorest for faiths which have only relatively recently taken root in any statistically significant extent, including Hindus, Muslims and Sikhs, of whose organizations only 2% responded. In part, this probably reflects a weaker archival consciousness among these communities and lesser engagement with the public network of national and local archives.  

Thus, from a quantitative perspective, the results of the survey are double-skewed, both by deliberate principles of sample selection and by differential rates of return. However, the numerical data generated by the survey continue to have indicative value in describing the arrangements which religious bodies make for their archives. The statistics are summarized in chapter 4 of the main report on the survey and set out in more detail in Appendix III. These documents may be found at:

http://www.nationalarchives.gov.uk/religiousarchives/

The report was formally launched yesterday evening at an event held at the Westminster Archives Centre, at which the Bishop of London, Dr Richard Chartres, was the guest speaker. A detailed national action plan for religious archives is in the process of development, informed by the results of the survey and by stakeholder responses which are being sought to it. The plan will necessarily have to be incremental and realistic, given current economic circumstances.

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Archbishop of Canterbury and the Coalition Government

The Archbishop of Canterbury, Rowan Williams, recently publicly criticized the Coalition Government’s plans to make the long-term unemployed take part in compulsory work placements, with those who refused at risk of having their jobseeker’s allowance stopped.

The Archbishop said that it would be wrong to put further pressure on the unemployed, thereby pushing them into a ‘downward spiral of uncertainty, even despair’. His intervention prompted memories of the Church of England’s conflicts with the Thatcher government in the 1980s.

On behalf of The Sun, which appears not to have reported the findings, YouGov asked a representative sample of 1,936 adult Britons aged 18 and over whether they agreed with the Archbishop’s remarks. Interviews were conducted online on 8 and 9 November.

Only 23% of the sample sided with Williams, against 64% who disagreed with him and 13% who expressed no opinion. Those who agreed were somewhat more likely to be men, aged 40-59, manual workers (C2DEs), Londoners and Scots.

However, the widest variation was by voting intention. Just 5% of Conservatives and 14% of Liberal Democrats (the two parties in government) shared the Archbishop’s opinion, compared with 47% of Labour supporters. 88% of Conservatives and 76% of Liberal Democrats disagreed with him.

Regardless of their views on this particular issue, respondents were also asked whether it was right or wrong for senior clergy to comment on political matters. A slight majority (54%) wanted the Church to keep out of the political arena, including two-thirds of Conservatives.

By contrast, 34% of the whole sample (45% of Labourites and 41% of Londoners) considered that the Church has an important moral contribution to make in the political world, with 12% undecided (including 23% of those aged 18-24).   

The full data table may be consulted at:

http://today.yougov.co.uk/sites/today.yougov.co.uk/files/YG-Archives-Pol-Sun-CompulsoryWork-091110.pdf

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Evolution Versus Creation

Next week will see the 151st anniversary of the publication of Charles Darwin’s book On the Origin of Species. The debate between evolutionists and creationists in explaining the beginnings of the human race has been raging ever since, especially as regards what should be taught in schools.

A new YouGov poll, released today and commissioned by Prospect magazine, affords insight into the current state of public opinion on the subject. It was conducted online on 25-26 October 2010 among a representative sample of 2,651 Britons aged 18 and over.

65% of adults now consider that Darwin’s theory of evolution is the most likely explanation for the origin of humans. The proportion is higher among men than women and the ABC1 than the C2DE social group. It is especially large among Liberal Democrat voters (74%).

This majority of two-thirds in favour of evolution was also reported in other recent studies, by Angus Reid Public Opinion in July 2010 (68%) and Populus in August 2010 (67%).

By contrast, only 9% of YouGov respondents hold to the account of creation as given in the Bible, ranging from 7% to 13% according to demographic sub-groups. A further 12% consider there has been some process of intelligent design, while 13% are unsure what to think.

These results represent a doubling in the number of believers in evolution since January 1973, when they amounted to 32% in a Gallup Poll. Creationists seem to have been expressly measured for the first time in August 1995, again by Gallup, when they stood at 29%. Later surveys can be traced through the BRIN database, but watch out for variants in question-wording.

The data table for the YouGov/Prospect question is available at:

http://today.yougov.co.uk/sites/today.yougov.co.uk/files/YG-Archives-Pol-Prospect-Evolution-181110.pdf

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Religion on BBC Television

On 8 November the BBC Trust published the final report of its service reviews of BBC One, BBC Two and BBC Four television (BBC Three was separately reviewed last year). The report is available at:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/bbctrust/assets/files/pdf/regulatory_framework/service_licences/service_reviews/one_two_four/tv_services_final.pdf

With regard to religious broadcasting, the report concludes (p. 44) that: ‘The amount of religious programming has been steady over time, with BBC One and BBC Two meeting audience expectations in this area.’

‘BBC One and BBC Two have a shared commitment to broadcasting over 110 hours of religious programming each year. These channels met this service licence condition during this review period: BBC One broadcast around 100 hours of religious programming in 2009, while BBC Two broadcast around 35 hours.’

‘Overall reach of religious programming on BBC television was over 28 million in 2009, a figure broadly similar to 2005. The volume of programming has also remained broadly stable since 2005, in contrast to other channels – Channel 4’s output has fallen from 76 hours to 49 hours and ITV1’s from 67 hours to 21.45.’

‘Much of BBC One’s programming is accounted for by three major strands, Songs of Praise, which reached 3.4 million viewers each week in 2009, and Big Questions and Sunday Morning Live, discussion and debate formats broadcast on Sunday mornings.’

‘BBC Two’s religious output is less regular with a focus on factual programming such as Around the World in 80 Faiths which reached nearly 2.5 million people every week.’

‘Our audience research shows that both BBC One and BBC Two are meeting audience expectations to “reflect a range of religious and other beliefs” and “raises my awareness and understanding of different religions and other beliefs”, although there are some gaps in delivery to ethnic minority viewers.’

‘This conclusion is supported by BBC management’s routine performance data, which shows that around 40 per cent of the audience consider BBC One as the best channel for religious programming. While this level has declined in recent years, it remains significantly above the next highest channels, Channel 4 and BBC Two.’

The final report, from which the foregoing has been extracted, should be read alongside a range of supporting evidence for the service reviews, which can be found at:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/bbctrust/our_work/service_reviews/service_licences/reviews_tv_supporting.shtml

This includes formal written submissions from the British Humanist Association, the Church of England and the Methodist Church, as well as an extensive (but not an easy read) report by Trevor Vagg and Sara Reid on quantitative research conducted by Kantar Media in connection with the service reviews.

Using a mixture of face-to-face and online interviews, Kantar Media interviewed three separate samples of UK adults aged 15 and over in November and December 2009: 1,059 for the BBC One review, 995 for BBC Two, and 729 for BBC Four.

The chief religion-related questions concerned the extent of agreement with the propositions that each television station ‘raises my awareness and understanding of different religions and other beliefs’ and ‘reflects a range of religious and other beliefs’. These were measured in terms of both importance and performance, with disaggregation by various demographic factors.

Additionally, religious affiliation was recorded and is sometimes used as a background variable for the analysis of other questions in the Kantar Media research.

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Who Celebrates Christmas?

The number of shopping days to Christmas is fast reducing. There have already been several market research surveys trying to assess likely spending patterns this season, especially in the light of the national economic situation.

YouGov has just added to these surveys, with a SixthSense online poll of 2,294 UK citizens between 1 and 3 November. It is unusual in terms of the breadth of demographic analysis: by gender, age, marital status, terminal education age, social grade, region, housing tenure, household size, and gross household income. The resultant 56 pages of tables are available at:

http://today.yougov.co.uk/sites/today.yougov.co.uk/files/Christmas_spending_results.pdf

While the questions majored on Christmas spending intentions, the first asked ‘Do you celebrate Christmas?’ 95% of the sample said that they did and 5% not.

Some non-celebrants were to be found in all demographic sub-groups with a meaningful number of respondents, apart from residents of Northern Ireland (who were 100% observant).

However, non-celebrants were particularly numerous among: those with a gross household income of under £10,000 (17%), people who lived alone (12%), men aged 40-54 (11%), Londoners (11%), and the divorced (9%).

The survey did not enquire into knowledge of, attitudes to and the observance of the religious aspects of Christmas. But there will doubtless be an enquiry or two along these lines before we reach 25 December.

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Biotechnology

The European Commission has recently published Special Eurobarometer 341 on Biotechnology. This is based upon face-to-face interviews by TNS with representative samples of the adult population aged 15 and over in the 27 member states of the European Union plus Croatia and Turkey (candidate countries) and Switzerland, Iceland and Norway (members of the European Free Trade Association). 1,311 interviews were conducted in the UK, between 29 January and 15 February this year.

At the topline level, four matters are of particular relevance to BRIN. Among the set of biotechnology questions, one (p. 165 and table QB19.10) asked whether religious leaders were doing a good job for society in saying what is right or wrong about developments in the biotechnology field.

In the UK 25% thought they were doing a good job (somewhat below the EU average of 31%), 47% a bad job (EU average 46%), with 28% uncertain (EU average 23%). In both the UK and the EU religious leaders scored the lowest ratings of ten groups for benefiting society with regard to biotechnology.

The other three questions were intended to provide religious background for analysing the biotechnology set. 37% of UK citizens claimed to believe in God (p. 204 and table QB32), well below the EU average of 51% and way behind Malta and Turkey (94%) and Romania (92%).

Additionally, 33% in the UK believed in some sort or spirit or life force, while 25% disbelieved in any kind of God, spirit or life force (against 20% in the EU as a whole), and 5% did not know what to think. Disbelievers were up by 5% from the last Eurobarometer survey to cover this issue, in January-February 2005.

Only 11 of the other 31 countries had a lower proportion of believers in God than the UK: Bulgaria (36%), Finland (33%), Slovenia (32%), Iceland (31%), Denmark and The Netherlands (28%), France (27%), Norway (22%), Sweden and Estonia (18%), and the Czech Republic (16%).   

On religious affiliation (table QB33), 6% in the UK said that they were atheists and a further 24% non-believers or agnostics. 14% were Catholics, 44% other Christians, 5% non-Christians, 2% from other religions, and 5% did not know what their religion was.

At 30%, those with no religion (including atheists) in the UK had increased by 5% since the question had last been put in May-June 2009. The EU average was 8% lower, at 22%. Just six countries had more irreligious than the UK (Czech Republic, the former East Germany, France, The Netherlands, Norway and Sweden).

As for attendance at religious services (table QB34), apart from weddings or funerals, 12% of UK adults claimed to go once a week or more, 6% once a month, 5% every two or three months, 7% on special holy days only, 9% once a year, 14% less often, and 46% never.

The UK figures were little changed from when the European Commission last posed the question, in September-October 2006. But the proportion never attending religious services in the UK today is 17% higher than the EU average. Only the Czech Republic, the former East Germany, and France have more non-worshippers.  

The report is available at:

http://ec.europa.eu/public_opinion/archives/ebs/ebs_341_en.pdf

A four-page fact-sheet on the UK results is at:

http://ec.europa.eu/public_opinion/archives/ebs/ebs_341_fact_uk_en.pdf

The dataset for the survey is deposited with the Economic and Social Data Service as SN 6518 (Eurobarometer 73.1). This would obviously support analysis of the answers to all the many specialized biotechnology questions by the three religious variables.

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Youtube and Radical Muslim Clerics

Last week Roshonara Choudhry, a 21-year-old British Muslim woman, was convicted at the Old Bailey of the attempted murder, on 14 May, of Stephen Timms, Labour Member of Parliament for East Ham, in retaliation for his endorsement of the Iraq War.

During her trial it emerged that she had become radicalized by watching the teachings of extremist Islamic preachers on Youtube, including the Yemen-based Anwar al-Awlaki, dubbed the ­‘spiritual leader’ of al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula.

The case prompted YouGov to include a question in its latest online poll for the Sunday Times, conducted on 4 and 5 November among a representative sample of 1,954 adult Britons aged 18 and over.

Noting that Youtube had voluntarily withdrawn al-Awlaki’s speeches from its site, YouGov asked its panelists whether Youtube should also be made to remove all speeches and videos from other Islamic clerics suspected of radicalizing British Muslims.

Three-quarters of respondents felt that Youtube should do this, with 14% saying it should not and 12% having no clear opinion. Conservative voters (82%) were more inclined to favour removal of the speeches than supporters of the other two main parties, and women somewhat more than men.

However, as with most British polls touching on Islam and Muslims, the most significant demographic trend was by age. Whereas 57% of 18-24s backed the removal of the offending speeches, the proportion climbed steadily through the other age cohorts, to reach 87% among the over-60s. Conversely, opponents of the ban decreased from 23% to 7% across the age spectrum.

Full data tabulations for this survey, which also included a battery of other questions relating to security and terrorism matters, will be found at:

http://today.yougov.co.uk/sites/today.yougov.co.uk/files/YG-Archives-Pol-ST-results-051110_0.pdf

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Violent Extremism

One of the four strands in the previous Labour government’s CONTEST counter-terrorism strategy was focused on preventing extremism. It was especially concerned to stop the radicalization of young Muslims, following the London bombings in 2005.

In an effort to improve the evidence base, the Department for Communities and Local Government decided to include an experimental module on attitudes to violent extremism in the first three quarters (April-December 2009) of the 2009-10 Citizenship Survey of England and Wales.

Fieldwork was undertaken by Ipsos MORI and TNS-BMRB among a representative sample of adults aged 16 and over, including booster samples of ethnic minorities and Muslims. 12,089 people were interviewed in all, among them a core sample of 6,963 and 2,708 Muslims.

The headline results from the module have been published recently in a statistical release from the Department (ISBN 978-1-4098-2529-6), which can be read online at:

http://www.communities.gov.uk/documents/statistics/pdf/1702054.pdf

Professing Christians (87%) were more likely than Sikhs (82%), Muslims (80%), people with no religion (79%) and Hindus (76%) to say that it was always wrong to use violent extremism in Britain to protest against things deemed to be very unfair or unjust.

The proportion thinking it was sometimes, often or always right to deploy violence stood at 8% overall, peaking at 15% for Hindus, 12% for Muslims and 10% for the irreligious. Jewish and Buddhist sub-samples were too small to report.

However, in a multivariate analysis, taking account of age, income, social class and other circumstances, only people with no religion were found to be significantly different from Christians.

So, while Muslims and Hindus (as a group) were less likely than Christians to reject violent extremism, the differences are largely explicable in terms of their younger age and/or divergent socio-economic profiles. Age is particularly relevant.

This explanation does not hold good for the no religion group. Even controlling for age and socio-economic factors, its members remained less likely than Christians to reject violent extremism.

The report is at pains to point out that ‘this does not mean that the absence of religious beliefs contributes to greater support for violent extremism. There may be other factors, which were not included in the multivariate analysis, which explain the difference …’

In addition to this general question, respondents were asked about the use of violent extremism, in the name of religion, to protest or achieve a goal. In the core sample (excluding 2% who failed to answer), 95% said that this was always wrong, 4% often wrong, 1% sometimes right and sometimes wrong, with very small numbers indeed opting for often or always right. These results are not broken down by religious affiliation.

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Halloween, Take 2

Today is Halloween (All Hallows’ Eve). We reported on 1 October (http://www.brin.ac.uk/news/?p=629) about the rapidly growing financial value of the market in Halloween-related products and also noted last year’s Angus Reid Public Opinion (ARPO) survey on the observance of Halloween in Britain.

Fresh data are now available from a YouGov poll commissioned by The Sun newspaper and conducted online on 27-28 October among a representative sample of 1,571 Britons aged 18 and over. Full results have been published at:

http://today.yougov.co.uk/sites/today.yougov.co.uk/files/YG-Archives-Life-Sun-Halloween-291010.pdf

18% of the whole sample said that they were planning to celebrate Halloween this weekend. This was 4% more than told ARPO in 2009 that they always celebrated Halloween, although an additional 45% then said that they sometimes did.

YouGov recorded no real difference in the celebration of Halloween by gender and social class. However, age was significant: 33% of the 18-24s and 28% of the 25-39s planned to mark the festival but only 15% of the 40-59s and 5% of the over-60s.

Regionally, Scots intend to celebrate Halloween most (28%), followed by Londoners (20%). Party political preference is also a factor: 25% of Liberal Democrats will be Halloweeners but 15% of Conservatives.

Even those who will not be Halloweening themselves are likely to get the ‘trick or treat’ knock on the door tonight. While 38% of all adults regard this as a harmless tradition, 44% (including 54% of the over-60s) consider it an unacceptable annoyance.

Of the 24% with children of the appropriate age, 38% think they will go trick or treating tonight and 56% not. The highest incidence is anticipated by Labour voters (45%), the 18-24s (47%), and residents of Northern England (44%) and Scotland (45%).

If you are planning to answer the door tonight, YouGov has some advice about what to hand out to the trick or treaters, based on its SixthSense children’s confectionery study. You can certainly forget about trying to palm them off with anything nutritious or non-sugary, and dark chocolate is not well-received either. See:

http://today.yougov.co.uk/consumer/trick-or-treat

POSTSCRIPT [21 November]

A further Halloween poll was conducted in October by TNS Omnibus, among an online sample of 1,046 adult Britons aged 16-64. 25% said they would be personally celebrating Halloween and spending on average over £30 to do so. For the TNS press release, see:

http://www.tns-ri.co.uk/what-we-do/6863.aspx

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