How Many Muslims?

The Pew Forum on Religion and Public Life published on 16 September a table giving estimates of the Muslim population of each country in Western Europe in 2010. This formed part of a press release about a new Pew report on Muslim Networks and Movements in Western Europe. However, the estimates are actually from another and still forthcoming Pew report on the growth rates among Muslim populations worldwide, and including projections for 2020 and 2030.

Pew’s UK figure for 2010 is 2,869,000, which is equivalent to 4.6% of the population. In absolute terms, the UK has the third largest Muslim community on the continent, after Germany (4,119,000) and France (3,574,000).

In percentage terms, the UK is in ninth position, after Belgium (6.0%), France, Austria and Switzerland (5.7%), The Netherlands (5.5%), Germany (5.0%), Sweden (4.9%) and Greece (4.7%). UK Muslims account for 16.8% of all Muslims in Western Europe.

The 2010 UK statistic represents an increase of 74.2% on the 1,647,000 (2.7% of the population) which Pew quoted as recently as last October, in its report Mapping the Global Muslim Population (pp. 22, 32, 54).

That figure was primarily based on the 2001 census, which was the first reliable measure of UK Muslim numbers, earlier estimates having been ethnically derived. No explanation (nor source) for the revised estimate is given by Pew, but doubtless all will be explained in its forthcoming report.

The 2001 census was thought to have been somewhat of an underestimate of Muslim numbers at that time, despite serious efforts by the Muslim Council of Britain and other community leaders to get Muslims to register their faith on the census schedule.

The most widely-publicized figures for Muslims since the census have been estimates for Great Britain from the Government’s Labour Force Survey (LFS), which rose from 1,870,000 in 2004 to 2,422,000 in 2008.

These first emerged in The Times on 30 January 2009 and were officially published in Hansard on 7 July 2009, in reply to a parliamentary question. They generated numerous media headlines about the Muslim population of Britain rising ten times faster than the rest of society.

No new LFS-based estimates have been released since, although they could presumably be easily generated by Government or academics (LFS data are routinely deposited at ESDS).

Another Government source, the Citizenship Survey, which covers adults aged 16 and over in England and Wales, reveals that the proportion of Muslims in the population doubled between 2001 and 2008-09, from 2% to 4%. Four-fifths of Muslims at the latter date claimed to be practising their faith, compared with 37% of all adults professing a religion and 32% of Christians.

According to Sophie Gilliat-Ray (Muslims in Britain, 2010, p. 117) the significant increase in the Muslim population ‘may be attributed to recent immigration, the growing birth rate, some conversion to Islam, and perhaps also an increased willingness to self-identify as “Muslim” on account of the “war on terror”’. The demography of Islam is explored in some detail in chapters 4 and 5 of Eric Kaufmann’s Shall the Religious Inherit the Earth? (2010).

The 2010 Pew table can be found at:

http://features.pewforum.org/muslim/number-of-muslims-in-western-europe.html

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How Many Catholics?

As part of its coverage of the papal visit, the BBC has compiled a webpage entitled ‘How many Catholics are there in Britain?’ This will be found at:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/11297461

It brings together disparate data from several sources, in particular:

  • Clerical vocations since 1982
  • Professing Catholics since 1983 (British Social Attitudes Surveys)
  • Mass attendance since 1990
  • Ethnic composition of Catholic population in 2008 (CAFOD/Ipsos MORI poll)

The Catholic Church has had somewhat of a chequered history in its collection of quantitative data, and, despite its relative strength, it still has no dedicated and professionally-staffed central statistical unit.

There are various shortcomings in the most frequently-cited British Catholic statistics, those appearing in the Catholic Directory for England and Wales and its equivalent in Scotland, and in the two Vatican publications, Annuario Pontificio and Annuarium Statisticum Ecclesiae.

Much less well-known is the work of the unofficial Pastoral Research Centre, notably Digest of Statistics of the Catholic Community of England & Wales, 1958-2005, Volume 1, edited by Tony Spencer (2007). This can be obtained from the Pastoral Research Centre, Stone House, Hele, Taunton, Somerset, TA4 1AJ.

For an overview of the development of Catholic statistics, see sections 2.7 and 2.8 and appendix 7 in Clive Field’s Religious Statistics in Great Britain: An Historical Introduction, available at:

http://www.brin.ac.uk/commentary/drs/

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Sex Abuse and the Papacy

The latest opinion poll connected with the papal visit was published by CNN (for whom it was conducted by ComRes) on 17 September, Pope Benedict’s first day in England. A representative sample of 2,028 adult Britons aged 18 and over was interviewed online between 14 and 16 September. This included 194 Roman Catholics.

The first of the four questions concerned the appropriateness of the Queen inviting the Pope to come on a state visit. Opinion was split, 36% deeming it appropriate, 37% inappropriate and 26% unsure. Catholics (68%) were most in favour of the visit, while the over-55s (47%) and those without any religion (47%) were most opposed.

The other three questions focused on the child sex abuse scandals in the Catholic Church. Asked whether the Church had shown sufficient public remorse for the scandals, only 10% thought that it had, against 74% who said it had not. There was relatively little variation by demographics, apart from Catholics, for whom the figures were 37% and 47% respectively.

The next question pressed whether the Pope had done enough to punish priests found guilty of child sex abuse. A meagre 4% believed that he had, compared with 77% who said that he ought to have done more. Catholics were not that much more impressed by Pope Benedict’s efforts, 13% thinking he had done enough and 66% not.

The final question tested views on whether the Pope should resign over the scandals. 24% were convinced that he should, ranging from 14% of Catholics to 30% among non-Christians and those of no religion. 47% (including 60% of Protestants and 74% of Catholics) wanted him to stay on.

CNN’s press release on the survey can be found at:

http://edition.cnn.com/2010/WORLD/europe/09/16/uk.pope.poll/index.html

The full data tabulations are available at:

http://www.comres.co.uk/page165585353.aspx

FOOTNOTE: Two further papal visit polls, one pre- and one post-visit, were conducted by Opinion Research Business, which has kindly agreed to publication of the data tables on BRIN:

ORB papal visit 14-16 Sep 2010

ORB papal visit 22-24 Sep 2010

 

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Daybreak Surveys Religion

Daybreak is the new breakfast television programme for the ITV network, anchored by Adrian Chiles and Christine Bleakley and launched on 6 September.

It has made an early entry into surveying public opinion by commissioning YouGov to run a poll on various aspects of religion.

Fieldwork was conducted online on 12-13 September among a representative sample of 2,108 adults aged 18 and over. Full data tabulations are available at:

http://today.yougov.co.uk/sites/today.yougov.co.uk/files/YG-Archives-Life-YouGov-DaybreakReligion-130910.pdf

Asked ‘Do you regard yourself as belonging to any particular religion?’, only 49% replied in the affirmative, which must be one of the lowest levels of religious affiliation ever recorded in British polling history. 45% said they did not belong to any religion.

The 49% certainly is in stark contrast to the figure of 82% obtained in the recently-published Citizenship Survey for 2008-09 in response to the question: ‘What is your religion even if you are not currently practising?’

Even allowing for variations in methodology and question-wording, a discrepancy of 33% between two surveys is huge, underlying the challenges in measuring this most basic dimension of religiosity. BRIN will return to this topic at a future date.

Women were more likely to profess a religion than men, older people rather than the young, the ABC1s more than the C2DEs, and Londoners more than the rest of the country.

The age effect was very marked. Whereas 60% of the over-60s were attached to a religion, the figure was only 36% for the 18-29s. Indeed, 20% more of the 18-29s did not belong to a religion than did, while for the over-60s 27% more belonged than not.

Among those who regarded themselves as belonging to a religion, a majority (55%) claimed to be Anglican, 18% Roman Catholic, 13% Free Church (including Presbyterian), 7% to belong to the major non-Christian faiths and 7% to other groups.

Most (78%) agreed that it was not necessary to attend religious services to be religious, although opinion was more balanced (38% agreeing, 34% disagreeing) when respondents were asked whether regular attenders were more religious than non-attenders.

Quizzed about marriage, just 3% opposed inter-faith marriage, most having no strong opinion on the subject. Of married persons, 55% had held the ceremony in a church, including 40% of those without a religion (albeit some unwillingly), and a further 13% would have liked to marry in church but had not.

Overall, in selecting a school for their children, few (9%) attached importance to the religion of the school, Catholics (36%) and Londoners (17%) being the main exceptions.   

68% agreed with the proposition that Christianity has been pushed to the sidelines in modern Britain. The figure was naturally highest for Christians (80%), but even 63% of those without a religion agreed.

Senior religious leaders (not specified in the question) were not respected by 56% of all adults, 20% more than held them in respect. For those with a religion, 53% held religious leaders in respect and 40% not, for those without a religion 20% and 73%.

27% considered that religious leaders spoke out too much about important issues affecting society, 19% the right amount and 35% too little. Those with a faith (43%) and the over-60s (40%) most wanted religious leaders to be more vociferous.

Asked about the papal visit, 17% supported it, 29% opposed it and 49% were neutral. Support was greatest among Catholics (54%) and opposition among those with no religion (37%).

79% (including 82% of Catholics, 83% of the over-40s and 85% of Scots) wanted the Pope to apologize for the sexual abuse of children perpetrated by Catholic priests.

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Superstition

The British continue to be a pretty superstitious bunch, according to research published by 72point (the news, public relations and survey specialists) on 16 September.

No fewer than 14 million adults admit to regularly carrying out everyday tasks they believe will bring them luck – or ward off bad luck.

But we apparently do not take these superstitions too seriously, since six in ten freely concede we know they are unlikely to come to anything but carry them out ‘just in case’.

The top ten superstitions are listed in 72point’s press release as:

1.    Won’t walk under a ladder
2.    Salute a lone magpie
3.    Throw spilt salt over your left shoulder
4.    Put money in a purse or wallet
5.    Don’t step on cracks in the pavement
6.    Avoid crossing people on the stairs
7.    Won’t put an umbrella up in the house
8.    Won’t walk across three drains
9.    Won’t put shoes on the table
10.  Say ‘pinch punch first day of the month’ on the first day of the month

However, it becomes evident from the text of the press release that, confusingly, these are not listed in strict descending order of statistical frequency.

The most widely-practised superstitions appear to be that almost half the population avoid walking under ladders, regularly touch wood or expect to receive seven years bad luck if they break a mirror.

The survey involved 3,000 adults interviewed online. It was commissioned by Racing for Change, to mark the launch of their www.lovetheraces.com website.

72point’s press release, which does not contain full statistics, can be read either at:

http://www.72point.com/press-archive/Brits-are-suspicious

or at:

http://swns.com/top-ten-superstitions-revealed-151108.html

BRIN will follow up this survey in due course to see whether we can obtain more details about methodology and results.

Only a limited amount of historical information about superstition is available for comparative purposes. Some of what there is assembled at:

http://www.brin.ac.uk/figures/#ChangingBelief

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Church Attendance in England, 2005

The debate over the Christian Research data last week, together with coverage of the papal visit, led me to look at church attendance data from the 2005 English Church Census. The English Church Census got a good deal of coverage when results were announced in 2006, when it was announced that 3,166,200 people, or 6.3% of the population attended church. However, I wanted to look again to see which areas of England had higher rates of church attendance, and specifically which areas looked more Catholic.

I’ve given more detail on the English Church Census here, and the full dataset is available at the UK Data Service. The data are available for counties, but David Voas here at BRIN has created a table whereby attendance and church data has been fit to district/unitary authority borders, so that it’s possible to look at attendance at the local authority level.

While the table does not include additional data on other socio-economic characteristics (for which go to Neighbourhood Statistics), it’s interesting to see which areas of the country have higher church attendance and which much less, as illustrated by the map below (click on the image to enlarge). This can also be compared with the religious affiliation data from the 2001 Census, illustrated by these maps.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

First, the area with the lowest percentage of people going to church is North East Lincolnshire, at 2.6%. This looks extremely low, but given that the national average attendance is 6.3%, is scarcely an outlier.

Secondly, the area with the highest percentage of people going to church appears to be the City of London, at 57%. This raises alarm bells, because the City of London also reported a very high percentage of people with no religious affiliation in the 2001 Census: 24.6%, which was the fifth highest rate among English local authorities. But of course the City of London is not really comparable with other local authorities; it hosts a much smaller number of people (7,185 in 2001), and only one (Anglican) primary school. However, it hosts 40 churches (as counted by the English Church Census), many of them historic, and they undoubtedly draw worshippers from across London. This link provides some further information.

Similarly, the City of London is also the local authority which reports the highest proportion of attenders of New Churches, at an apparent 4.01% of the local population. (New Churches reject denominational labels or principles, with examples being those within the Vineyard or Newfrontiers franchises.) Because of the small overall population his is down to a single church, which drew in 288 attenders on Church Census day.

The histogram helps illustrate just how problematic the City of London figure is – any statistical analysis of this data would surely have to drop the observation.

 

 

 

 

 

 

The next highest is the Scilly Isles (18.6% attending church on Sunday), a location which might also be considered atypical. The third highest is Kensington and Chelsea at 17.2%. This may partly be due to the nature of the Royal Borough’s population (there is often though to be a relationship between class and church attendance) and also because the Brompton Oratory and Holy Trinity Brompton are likely to draw in attenders from other boroughs. The next is Westminster (15.7%) which hosts Westminster Abbey and Westminster Cathedral; nevertheless the majority of local authorities with relatively high rates of church attendance appear to be in Greater London or the London commuter belt. The remainder of those with over 10% church attendance are Brent, Enfield, Harrow, Ribble Valley, Lewisham, Wirral, Brentwood, West Devon, Wandsworth, Southwark, Sevenoaks, Guildford, South Bucks, Camden, Cambridge and Kingston-upon-Thames.

The ‘bottom ten’ range from 3.6% in South Holland in Lincolnshire, followed by Kirklees, Wychavon (Worcs.), Telford and Wrekin, Doncaster, Fenland, Ashfield (Notts.), Bolsover (Derbyshire), Rotherham (S. Yorks), and North East Lincolnshire, which pulls up the rear at 2.6%. I don’t know enough about these areas to suggest why; some may host high proportions of non-Christians, others populations which are distinct in other ways, or have dispersed rural populations which are ‘underserved’. This awaits further analysis.

So which areas are most Catholic? This map shows Catholic church attendance as a percentage of population.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The highest rates of attendance appear to be in the North West, North East and London. The top three local authorities are the City of London (11.6%), Westminster (7.0%), and Kensington and Chelsea (6.5%), which for the reasons outlined above might reasonably have less to do with the local authority’s population and more to do with their places of worship. The next is then Ribble Valley (5.8%), Wirral, Scilly, Sefton (Merseyside), Knowsley (Merseyside), and Liverpool (5.0%). Some of this is surely due to the legacy of Irish immigration. Ribble Valley also hosts Stonyhurst College, a large Catholic boarding school, which may have boosted its total. Of the top 50, all fall within the North West, North East, Greater London and the South East. The bottom 50 appear to be mostly located in Lincolnshire, Shropshire, Gloucestershire, and Nottinghamshire – which are more rural counties outside the south east.

Of the areas where there are high rates of Pentecostal church attendances, nineteen of the top twenty are in Greater London, and the twentieth is in Luton.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

In Brent, 7.3% of the population appear to attend Pentecostal churches on Sunday, although it may be that as with the Anglican and Catholic cathedrals in Westminster there are particularly large churches there drawing in attenders from elsewhere. At 5.6% the rate for the City of London again looks unreliable; the next ranked is Southwark at 4.7%. In 39 local authorities there are no Pentecostalist attenders represented at all – and these are predominantly local authorities in the leafy shires. The map illustrates that attendances are mostly in urban centres.

This is clearly a very basic outline of the geography of attendance. To understand what is driving such variation in attendances, we would need to look at the characteristics of the population, as well as of the nature of the churches operating in each area. Nevertheless, the spatial pattern is intriguing and suggests a strong link to immigration history, and rural/urban differences.

There is much to be gleaned from this Census on its own: readers should look at Peter Brierley’s Pulling Out of the Nosedive (2006), and the UK Christian Handbook Religious Trends 6 for further data and analysis. Given the debate last week about whether attendances have been falling or holding up over the decade, Christian Research’s plans to conduct another within the next year or so are of great interest.

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Citizenship Survey, 2008-09 – Religion

On 14 September the Department for Communities and Local Government published online 2008-09 Citizenship Survey: Race, Religion and Equalities Topic Report by Chris Ferguson and David Hussey. It comprises a PDF document of 113 pages plus 105 statistical tables in Excel format. The report can be downloaded from:

http://www.communities.gov.uk/publications/corporate/statistics/citizenshipsurvey200809equality

The Citizenship Survey is now conducted in annual cycles by face-to-face interview among a representative sample of adults aged 16 and over in England and Wales, including an ethnic minority booster sample. 14,917 interviews were conducted by NatCen between April 2008 and March 2009.

Four sub-topics are considered in the new report:

  • Race: chapter 2 and tables 1-14
  • Religion: chapter 3 and tables 15-58
  • Racial and religious harassment: chapter 4 and tables 59-88
  • Equalities: chapter 5 and tables 89-105

However, all of the chapters and a majority of the tables contain some content on religion.

The report is naturally too substantial to lend itself to extensive review here. By way of a taster, the following key findings have been abstracted from the executive summary:

  1. 82% reported having a religion, while 18% had none
  2. 80% of Muslims actively practised their faith, against 70% of Hindus, 66% of Sikhs and Buddhists and 32% of Christians
  3. The proportion of people who thought that there was more religious prejudice in Britain today than there was five years ago decreased, from 62% in 2007-08 to 52% in 2008-09
  4. Muslims were the group most commonly identified as experiencing both increases and decreases in religious prejudice; 88% of people who said that religious prejudice had increased identified Muslims
  5. 39% of people said that the Government was doing about the correct amount to protect the rights of people belonging to different religions; 26% thought it was doing too much and 27% too little
  6. 82% of people who thought that religious rights were protected too much mentioned Muslims in this context, while 52% of people who thought that religious rights were protected too little also mentioned Muslims
  7. 94% of people who said that they actively practised their religion felt that they could practise their religion freely in Britain
  8. 18% of people who had a religion said that their religion affected where they lived, 10% where they worked, 14% who their friends were, and 30% the school they sent their children to
  9. 17% of people from ethnic minority groups said that racial or religious harassment was a very or fairly big problem in their local area, compared with 8% of white people; 17% and 3% respectively had actually experienced harassment
  10. As in 2005 and 2007-08, the two groups mentioned most frequently as experiencing more racial prejudice were Asian people and Muslims (mentioned by 39% and 37% respectively)

Also published recently (on 2 September) was the technical report on the 2008-09 Citizenship Survey. At 417 pages, it is not for the faint-hearted! See:

http://www.communities.gov.uk/publications/corporate/statistics/citizenshipsurvey200809technical

Previously published were topic reports on volunteering and charitable giving; empowered communities; and community cohesion. Each has some religious content. For introductions to these, see the earlier BRIN posts at:

http://www.brin.ac.uk/news/?p=71

http://www.brin.ac.uk/news/?p=268

The survey obviously affords plenty of scope for secondary analysis. For those interested in pursuing this, the dataset is already available at ESDS as SN 6388. See:

http://www.esds.ac.uk/findingData/snDescription.asp?sn=6388&key=citizenship+survey

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Populus on the Papal Visit

The opinion pollsters continue to pick up business from the now imminent papal visit to Scotland and England. Following the ComRes/BBC and YouGov/ITV surveys carried out among Catholics, reported by BRIN on Sunday and Monday, today brings a study of all British adults conducted by Populus for The Times.

Fieldwork was on 10-12 September, by telephone among a sample of 761 Britons aged 18 and over. The results are summarized in an article (with accompanying graphic) by Sam Coates and Ruth Gledhill in today’s print edition of The Times. The online version can only be accessed by subscribers. Detailed computer tabulations are not yet available on the Populus website.*

Respondents were asked to choose one of four statements which best expressed their attitude to the papal visit, with the following outcome:

  1. The Pope is the respected leader of one of the world’s most important religious faiths. I am positively in favour of his visit and we should not quibble about the inevitable costs – 14% (highest among professionals)
  2. I don’t feel strongly either way about the Pope’s visit to Britain or the fact that it will inevitably incur some costs – 16%
  3. I don’t feel strongly either way about the Pope’s visit to Britain, but we should not be spending a penny of taxpayers’ money on it – 57% (two-thirds among women)
  4. Leaving aside all issue of the cost of his visit, I am opposed to the Pope coming to Britain because of his track record and the views he espouses – 11% (15% of men)

Majorities of the British public wanted the Pope to drop his opposition to contraception (79%), abortion (73%), women priests (72%), practising homosexuality (70%) and gay adoptions (59%). 72% found the Catholic Church intolerant and judgemental.

Opinion was divided on whether the Catholic Church was a force for good (47%) or ill (33%, and highest among Labour voters). But, at 83%, it was emphatic in condemning the Church for being dishonest in dealing with the child abuse scandals.

Two key themes emerge from this Populus survey: a) limited public interest in the papal visit coupled with concerns about its cost; and b) widespread criticism of several of the Church’s traditional teachings and of its handling of sexual abuse by priests.

These find echoes in other recent papal visit-related polls, for which see:

http://www.brin.ac.uk/news/?p=558

http://www.brin.ac.uk/news/?p=554

http://www.brin.ac.uk/news/?p=526

http://www.brin.ac.uk/news/?p=524

http://www.brin.ac.uk/news/?p=517

*POSTSCRIPT [17 September] Detailed computer tabulations for the Populus poll are now available at:

http://populuslimited.com/uploads/download_pdf-120910-The-Times-The-times-Poll—September-2010.pdf

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Britons Respond to Pastor Jones

The ninth anniversary of 9/11 was somewhat overshadowed by the crisis precipitated by Terry Jones, pastor of the Dove World Outreach Center in Gainesville (Florida), who planned to mark the occasion by an ‘International burn a Koran’ day but, in the face of overwhelming opposition, called off the event at the last minute.

British public opinion on the subject was tested by YouGov as part of its regular weekly polling for the Sunday Times, although this particular question did not feature in the reporting in yesterday’s print edition of the newspaper. YouGov interviewed 1,858 adults aged 18 and over online on 9 and 10 September. The data table is available at:

http://today.yougov.co.uk/sites/today.yougov.co.uk/files/YG-Archives-Pol-ST-results-100910.pdf

Respondents were asked whether the US government should or should not allow Pastor Jones to proceed with the ‘International burn a Koran’ day. It was not explained that, in practice, there was no legal basis on which the US government could have intervened, since Jones’s intended action was defensible under the First Amendment of the US Constitution.

In reply, 24% of Britons thought that the US government should allow the burning to take place, citing Jones’s right to free expression. 65% wanted the US government to intercede on the grounds that Jones was inciting racial hatred. The remaining 11% expressed no view.

Those in favour of the US government standing aside were especially to be found among Conservative voters (29%) and men (31%). Jones’s opponents were most numerous with Labour voters (72%), Liberal Democrats (74%), women (69%) and the over-60s (72%).

In other British polls the elderly have usually been found to be the most Islamophobic of all age groups, so the finding from this particular survey is as interesting as it is unusual. Possibly, the over-60s were most fearful of the international consequences (in terms of protests and violence) had the Korans been burned.

The closest analogy to the incident in Britain is reaction to the international controversy surrounding the publication of the cartoons of the Prophet Muhammad in a Danish newspaper at the start of 2006. Several opinion polls were conducted on the issue.

British attitudes towards these cartoons were somewhat ambivalent. On the one hand, the principle of freedom of expression was deemed to justify their publication abroad. On the other, the decision of the British press not to republish them, out of respect for the Muslim community in Britain, was simultaneously supported, while the excesses of Muslim protests were roundly condemned.

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At Odds with the Church? Roman Catholic Opinion II

As if the organizers of this week’s papal visit did not already have enough to worry about! More than three-quarters of the population apparently have no interest in the visit and oppose the state part-funding it out of taxpayers’ money, according to a recent ComRes/Theos poll (http://www.brin.ac.uk/news/?p=524).

Also, a combination of security, cost and travel considerations is causing grave concerns that attendance at the open-air events in Glasgow, London and Birmingham may be well under capacity. See, for example, the report in today’s edition of The Independent at:

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/administration-problems-blamed-for-pope-benedicts-ticket-slump-2077548.html

Now, hot on the heels of yesterday’s ComRes/BBC survey (http://www.brin.ac.uk/news/?p=554), which revealed doubts about the role of women in the Church and clerical celibacy, comes further evidence that Britain’s Catholics are ‘at odds with the Church’ over key aspects of its teaching. 

These new data are to be found in an online YouGov survey of 1,636 British Roman Catholics conducted for ITV in connection with a special edition of the Tonight programme on the papal visit, to be broadcast at 7.30 pm on ITV1 this Thursday, the first day of the visit, and fronted by Julie Etchingham. It will be entitled Keeping the Faith?

We will doubtless have to wait until after the broadcast for the full results from this YouGov poll to emerge, but initial findings have already appeared in a Press Association release, which is the basis of much reporting in today’s print, broadcast and online news media.

We summarize the available statistics here, giving, by way of comparison, the answers to similar questions in the survey of Roman Catholic opinion in England and Wales carried out by Gallup in 1978 on behalf of Michael Hornsby-Smith. On that occasion, 1,023 English and Welsh Catholics were interviewed face-to-face.

ABORTION

In the YouGov/ITV poll in 2010 only 11% of British Catholics agreed with the Church that abortion is solely permitted as an indirect consequence of life-saving treatment. A further 44% thought it should be sanctioned in cases of rape, incest and severe disability in the child. 30% believed that abortion should always be allowed, while just 6% were opposed to it under all circumstances.

In 1978 65% of English and Welsh Catholics agreed (and 24% disagreed) that, except where the life of the mother was at risk, abortion was wrong.

CONTRACEPTION

In 2010 a mere 4% of British Catholics agreed with the Church that contraception is wrong. 71% wanted to see it used more often to prevent sexually-transmitted diseases and unwanted pregnancies. 23% considered that it is a matter for couples to decide whether to use contraception or not.

In 1978 74% of English and Welsh Catholics agreed (and 13% disagreed) that a married couple who felt they had as many children as they wanted did nothing wrong in using artificial means of birth control.

HOMOSEXUALITY

Only 11% of British Catholics in 2010 thought homosexuality to be morally wrong. 28% contended that adults should be free to do what they wish in their own homes. 41% wanted to see both gay and straight relationships celebrated.

In 1978 55% of English and Welsh Catholics agreed (and 17% disagreed) that the Church can never, in practice, approve of homosexual acts.

CLERICAL CELIBACY

Just 27% of British Catholics in 2010 supported continuing celibacy for priests. 65% thought that priests should be allowed to marry, 16% more than in yesterday’s ComRes/BBC poll (whose sample was only one-third of the size of YouGov’s).

In 1978 54% of English and Welsh Catholics were prepared to contemplate the possibility of married priests, as one solution to the shortage of priests.

SUMMARY

Variations in question-wording between the 1978 and 2010 surveys should make us circumspect about drawing too firm conclusions from a comparison. However, it seems evident that, on these four measures, the 1978 data already had the makings of a community at odds with the Church.

Perhaps the greatest shift in Catholic opinion on moral issues over the past thirty-two years has been in respect of abortion and homosexuality. In both cases this probably mirrors more liberal attitudes in society as a whole.

POSTSCRIPT [last revised 22 September] Topline results for all the questions in this survey for ITV, including four not featured above, have now been posted by YouGov at:

http://today.yougov.co.uk/sites/today.yougov.co.uk/files/YG-Archives-Pol-YouGovITV-PapalVisit-020910.pdf

In addition, five questions on abortion and contraception were included in the same survey on behalf of Marie Stopes International. Detailed results for these (disaggregated by mass attendance, gender, age, social grade and region) are available at:

http://today.yougov.co.uk/sites/today.yougov.co.uk/files/YG-Archives-Life-MarieStopes-CatholicSample-020910.pdf

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